Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXVII

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AKL

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I don't think Guerin would do that; he seems like a guy that respect the code. Plus with Lou, he doesn't want to burn that bridge.

I don’t necessarily see him as a guy that respects “the code” enough to not offer sheet a guy like Barzal, however, I agree that he probably won’t in this specific instance because of the potential for a Parise trade. No chance Lou will trade for Parise if Guerin just tried offer sheeting Barzal.

I also don’t think we have the flexibility to extend an offer sheet to Barzal that would be worth it for both sides.
 

Dr Jan Itor

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Fiala (24) - Barzal (23) - Kaprizov (23)
Boldy (19) - Eriksson Ek (23) - Kunin (22)
Beckman (19) - Khovanov (20) - Greenway/Donato (23)

Suter - Spurgeon (31)
Brodin (27) - Dumba (25)
Soucy (27) - Menell (23)
Addison (20)

Kahkonen (24)

Plus 3 picks in the first ~50 in the 2020 draft.

How much damage is not having 1st rounders in the following 4 drafts really going to do?
 

fentonsbrainchild

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Fiala (24) - Barzal (23) - Kaprizov (23)
Boldy (19) - Eriksson Ek (23) - Kunin (22)
Beckman (19) - Khovanov (20) - Greenway/Donato (23)

Suter - Spurgeon (31)
Brodin (27) - Dumba (25)
Soucy (27) - Menell (23)
Addison (20)

Kahkonen (24)

Plus 3 picks in the first ~50 in the 2020 draft.

How much damage is not having 1st rounders in the following 4 drafts really going to do?
Also how many of those picks are going to be a tenth as good as Barzal?
 
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MuckOG

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May 18, 2012
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Fiala (24) - Barzal (23) - Kaprizov (23)
Boldy (19) - Eriksson Ek (23) - Kunin (22)
Beckman (19) - Khovanov (20) - Greenway/Donato (23)


Plus 3 picks in the first ~50 in the 2020 draft.

How much damage is not having 1st rounders in the following 4 drafts really going to do?

If more than one of players in bold above don't turn out like we hope and expect, it could do quite a bit of damage.
 

thestonedkoala

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How much damage is not having 1st rounders in the following 4 drafts really going to do?

Flexibility? Also I am uncertain how much Barzal is a product of the system and how much is him. Looks like all of the Islanders are doing fairly well.

If more than one of players in bold above don't turn out like we hope and expect, it could do quite a bit of damage.

That's a good point. Also Eriksson-Ek and Kunin could just top out at 40 points each - not much in the top 6 right?
 

fentonsbrainchild

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Flexibility? Also I am uncertain how much Barzal is a product of the system and how much is him. Looks like all of the Islanders are doing fairly well.



That's a good point. Also Eriksson-Ek and Kunin could just top out at 40 points each - not much in the top 6 right?
If we’re talking purely based on production I would argue the Trotz system is holding him back.
 

DemidovSaveUs

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You never really realize how much Kevin Gorg doesn’t know what he’s talking about until you hear him on Straight from the source
 

DemidovSaveUs

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Summarize?
Some points that I just found interesting that he made:
  • Thinks Kahkonen should stay in AHL another year while we run with Dubnyk and Stalock again
  • Thinks we’ll have to Address our need for a C through FA
  • His biggest concern was getting Cs that can win face offs.
The podcast itself has about 15 minutes of interesting stuff at the end after about 45 minutes of stuff I ignored
 

nickschultzfan

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4 1sts is dirt cheap for a franchise center just entering his prime. Dirt. Cheap. Half of those picks will be nobodies or fillers. One will be roster player. Other will be a very good player who might be as good as the player you are acquiring.

And you have 4 years to get back picks if you care.

I normally like Russo, but its hilarious when he goes off about how 1sts, even top-5 picks are "not guarantees" to be stars, and then immediately says offer sheets will never be successful.
 
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SupremeNachos

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Some points that I just found interesting that he made:
  • Thinks Kahkonen should stay in AHL another year while we run with Dubnyk and Stalock again
  • Thinks we’ll have to Address our need for a C through FA
  • His biggest concern was getting Cs that can win face offs.
The podcast itself has about 15 minutes of interesting stuff at the end after about 45 minutes of stuff I ignored
I mean he's not entirely wrong about needing centers who can win faceoffs. I know EEK has gotten better this year but if we lose Koivu in the offseason that means we also lose a lot more faceoffs.
 

BagHead

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4 1sts is dirt cheap for a franchise center just entering his prime. Dirt. Cheap. Half of those picks will be nobodies or fillers. One will be roster player. Other will be a very good player who might be as good as the player you are acquiring.

And you have 4 years to get back picks if you care.

I normally like Russo, but its hilarious when he goes off about how 1sts, even top-5 picks are "not guarantees" to be stars, and then immediately says offer sheets will never be successful.

Well, Russo's kinda right about both, isn't he? We know for a fact that 1st round picks aren't guarantees and we also know that there have been just really no offer sheets that have been successful. Sure, some of the offer sheets have been signed, but they've either been met by their original team's GM, or the GM has let that player go and the player tends to play worse in the new setting, and is overpaid... and was acquired at the cost of a bunch of 1sts. Just because 1sts aren't a guarantee doesn't mean they're worthless. Four 1sts give much better odds than one 1st does at getting a great player.

I got curious, so I looked back at the history of offer sheets. The last one that turned out well for the team that tendered the offer sheet was when the New York Rangers offer sheeted Adam Graves on September 3, 1991. Graves was phenomonal for the Rangers, while the compensation that the Oilers received, Troy Mallette, turned out to not be great. So we have to go back nearly 30 years to find a single good offer sheet. Now that the salary cap is a thing, GMs have largely given up on even trying this tactic.

I agree that four firsts isn't too much to acquire a 1st line center, if your team is in the right situation to take him and immediately start winning, and also if you don't have to offer sheet him, which will necessitate a contract that is worth more than what he actually brings to the ice. So you see, the overpayment of the player is also a cost. It would be far better to trade the four 1sts than to pay them as compensation in an offer sheet, because now you're not overpaying a player and screwing up your cap situation. An offer sheet requires two costs, the cost of the picks, and extra cost of the player's contract over what it would have been in normal negotiations.
 

nickschultzfan

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Well, Russo's kinda right about both, isn't he? We know for a fact that 1st round picks aren't guarantees and we also know that there have been just really no offer sheets that have been successful. Sure, some of the offer sheets have been signed, but they've either been met by their original team's GM, or the GM has let that player go and the player tends to play worse in the new setting, and is overpaid... and was acquired at the cost of a bunch of 1sts. Just because 1sts aren't a guarantee doesn't mean they're worthless. Four 1sts give much better odds than one 1st does at getting a great player.

I got curious, so I looked back at the history of offer sheets. The last one that turned out well for the team that tendered the offer sheet was when the New York Rangers offer sheeted Adam Graves on September 3, 1991. Graves was phenomonal for the Rangers, while the compensation that the Oilers received, Troy Mallette, turned out to not be great. So we have to go back nearly 30 years to find a single good offer sheet. Now that the salary cap is a thing, GMs have largely given up on even trying this tactic.

I agree that four firsts isn't too much to acquire a 1st line center, if your team is in the right situation to take him and immediately start winning, and also if you don't have to offer sheet him, which will necessitate a contract that is worth more than what he actually brings to the ice. So you see, the overpayment of the player is also a cost. It would be far better to trade the four 1sts than to pay them as compensation in an offer sheet, because now you're not overpaying a player and screwing up your cap situation. An offer sheet requires two costs, the cost of the picks, and extra cost of the player's contract over what it would have been in normal negotiations.
Lack of success of offer sheets have more to do with how incorrectly GM price players than them being overpayments.

A player has his max value to a team in his prime. Therefore, having Austin Mathews get his current contract is fair value.

Habs' bid for Aho was unsuccessful because they underbid on Aho. He is 22. They should have offered 7 years in the 9.5+ million/year range. That would have got him for all of his prime.

But GM live in a price fixed world where they gamed the market to get young-to-prime players at below-market rates, which only results in that "saved" cash flooding into the vastly overpriced UFA vet market.

This creates a disconnect where teams say "Aho is not worth 9.5+ million/year", but those same teams (see Wild) will throw 6 million/year at guy like Zucc, who is worth 20 percent what Aho would be to this team.

Every year every top unsigned young center should get offer-sheeted. It is a no-brainer.
 

P10p

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Lack of success of offer sheets have more to do with how incorrectly GM price players than them being overpayments.

A player has his max value to a team in his prime. Therefore, having Austin Mathews get his current contract is fair value.


Habs' bid for Aho was unsuccessful because they underbid on Aho. He is 22. They should have offered 7 years in the 9.5+ million/year range. That would have got him for all of his prime.

But GM live in a price fixed world where they gamed the market to get young-to-prime players at below-market rates, which only results in that "saved" cash flooding into the vastly overpriced UFA vet market.

This creates a disconnect where teams say "Aho is not worth 9.5+ million/year", but those same teams (see Wild) will throw 6 million/year at guy like Zucc, who is worth 20 percent what Aho would be to this team.

Every year every top unsigned young center should get offer-sheeted. It is a no-brainer.

Not sure what point you're trying to make here but it hurts my head trying to read this. :laugh:
 

Bazeek

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Not sure what point you're trying to make here but it hurts my head trying to read this. :laugh:
I think the point is that offer sheets don't succeed because GM's don't use them very often and, when they do, they don't push them far enough. While that's probably true I think GMs have reasons for this beyond just saving cap space to blow on UFAs. A lot of it seems driven by reluctance to piss off other GMs while driving up the high-end RFA market, because the reality is that most of these sheets will be matched.
 

Dr Jan Itor

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Not sure what point you're trying to make here but it hurts my head trying to read this. :laugh:

I think he's saying that it's probably a better idea to "overpay" an elite player in their early/mid 20's than it is to "fairly pay" veteran players in their late 20's/early 30's.
 

dBoon

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4 Firsts, hmm. Considering guys like Aho and Bergeron were 2nds, and Point was a 3rd, maybe you could have your cake and eat it too.

I just like the way the Wild have been drafting lately too much though, and would prefer giving them all the picks they can possibly get to keep doing what they're doing.
 
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