Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXVII

[AKL]

This is at 5v5:

Wonder when Donato is going to get a real chance here

 

[2Pair]

What are you basing this on? I don’t think he’s a dynamic 5v5 player by any means, but outside of the first 10 games of the year he was a serviceable top 6 player. He’s going to drop off even more as he ages but I really don’t see an argument for him being out worst winger at even strength given the current structure of the team.

Here is where Parise ranks among Wild forwards at 5 on 5
TOI= 1st
Points= 8th
Assists =7th
Goals = 7th

Points/60 = 13th
assists/60 = 11th
Goals/60 = 12th

When you take two-way play, icetime, linemates, and usage into account, it's actually hard to argue that he wasn't the worst forward on the team.

I completely agree about Guerin, I hope he can be a great GM too, though he hasn't given me much confidence to this point.

But if he goes out and addresses the need for a long term 1 or 2 C, if he addresses the goaltending issue, be it with Kahkonen or someone else, if he has a good draft, if he makes some other good moves, if he doesn't keep handing out questionable contracts, then I'm just not going to hold the Parise thing against him. Yeah, I would strongly prefer to see Parise off this team as soon as next season as well, but I'm expecting that the other issues take priority, so if he addresses those, but Parise is still here, that'll be a net positive.

Don't really disagree with any of this. All that I said was that it would be a failure on Guerin's part if Parise is still around next year. I have the same opinion about Dubnyk. Guerin failing in one aspect doesn't guarantee that he will be a failure as a GM though,

Wonder when Donato is going to get a real chance here

Donato - Staal - Zuccarello would be my 2nd line to start next season

 

[Minnesnota]

I just looked at Donato's numbers across the board and I'm now upset.

Donato at 5v5 (min of 400mins):

ToI/GP: Last
G/60: First
Pts/60: 2nd
ixG/60: 2nd
iSCF/60: 1st
iHDCF/60: 1st
Rush Attempts/60: 1st

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Here is where Parise ranks among Wild forwards at 5 on 5
TOI= 1st
Points= 8th
Assists =7th
Goals = 7th

Points/60 = 13th
assists/60 = 11th
Goals/60 = 12th

When you take two-way play, icetime, linemates, and usage into account, it's actually hard to argue that he wasn't the worst forward on the team.

Staal not playing 2 games and Zuccarello not playing 4 games helped with that a bit.

How about your guy Foligno? 3rd, 5th and 3rd in the per 60 stuff. Shrewd signing by Fletch.

 

[AKL]

I just looked at Donato's numbers across the board and I'm now upset.

Donato at 5v5 (min of 400mins):

ToI/GP: Last
G/60: First
Pts/60: 2nd
ixG/60: 2nd
iSCF/60: 1st
iHDCF/60: 1st
Rush Attempts/60: 1st

Well you look at how he scored 16 points in the 22 games here the season before that, and how he was designated to the fourth line from the beginning, and how when he did get top 6 minutes he was actually pretty solid.

You don't even need to dig deep to be upset about his treatment this season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Pretty crazy how a guy can go from being the best forward on the team to being so reviled in such a short time. Less than a season.

 

[2Pair]

Staal not playing 2 games and Zuccarello not playing 4 games helped with that a bit.

How about your guy Foligno? 3rd, 5th and 3rd in the per 60 stuff. Shrewd signing by Fletch.

Foligno had a great year. He's still an overpaid 4th liner if used properly. Although his progression on the PK makes his contract quite a bit better.

 

[AKL]

I wonder how much of Foligno's excellent season is due to how good Eriksson Ek was.

 

[2Pair]

I just looked at Donato's numbers across the board and I'm now upset.

Donato at 5v5 (min of 400mins):

ToI/GP: Last
G/60: First
Pts/60: 2nd
ixG/60: 2nd
iSCF/60: 1st
iHDCF/60: 1st
Rush Attempts/60: 1st

This is why I would get angry when people would talk about Donato being a bust, or a guy that couldn't even cut it on the 4th line. He has his flaws, but put the kid in a position to succeed and he will.

 

[AKL]

This is why I would get angry when people would talk about Donato being a bust, or a guy that couldn't even cut it on the 4th line. He has his flaws, but put the kid in a position to succeed and he will.

He did*

Maybe it's just semantics, but to me it's an important distinction, because it's not a hypothetical thing. Every time he's been put in a position to succeed, he has. Every time he's been put in a position to fail, he's still relatively succeeded.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Shit, let's just throw Donato between Fiala and Kaprizov and see where that ride takes us.

 

[BagHead]

Here is where Parise ranks among Wild forwards at 5 on 5
TOI= 1st
Points= 8th
Assists =7th
Goals = 7th

Points/60 = 13th
assists/60 = 11th
Goals/60 = 12th

When you take two-way play, icetime, linemates, and usage into account, it's actually hard to argue that he wasn't the worst forward on the team.


Don't really disagree with any of this. All that I said was that it would be a failure on Guerin's part if Parise is still around next year. I have the same opinion about Dubnyk. Guerin failing in one aspect doesn't guarantee that he will be a failure as a GM though,


Donato - Staal - Zuccarello would be my 2nd line to start next season

You made a strong case for the bolded, but I think it's the wrong conclusion. Can we maybe agree that Parise is not the worst forward on the team, but rather is the most over-utilized? I mean, you could give Rask Parise's TOI, and he'd be lower than 8th in points. It's also worth noting that the powerplay is still a thing that players get judged off of, so if, in addition, you also gave Rask Parise's powerplay time, I think he'd be lower on the team than 4th in total points, and certainly lower than 1st in goals.

I just looked at Donato's numbers across the board and I'm now upset.

Donato at 5v5 (min of 400mins):

ToI/GP: Last
G/60: First
Pts/60: 2nd
ixG/60: 2nd
iSCF/60: 1st
iHDCF/60: 1st
Rush Attempts/60: 1st

I wouldn't get too upset by this. Justin Fontaine was a Pts/60 darling, are you mad we didn't re-sign him when his contract was up? If you look up the list for the entire NHL's pts/60, you'll realize it's littered with bottom 6 players, and the only top 6 players at the top of it are the ones that are stars and superstars. That should tell you that it's easier to get points when you aren't as tired as everyone else, and that the only way to overcome that is by being waaaaay better than everyone else. It should not tell you that all of those bottom 6 guys are under-utilized.

In short, /60 stats are only useful for figuring out who the superstars in the league are. You could alternatively just sort by Pts/GP at NHL.com with a >15 games played filter, and it would filter out all of the bottom 6 players and make your life easier. Even that search would be a bit misleading, but less so.

I should note that I do think Donato has more skill than his usage would indicate, but using pts/60 to try to prove it can be flawed, as it can lead to conclusions like "Foligno and Hartman should play on the 1st or 2nd line". Donato has been a casualty of being one of too many wingers with too few spots open. He's a player that goes hot and cold, and so it's risky for a coach to play him over more consistent, lower ceiling guys. It's not fair to him, for sure, and a move will have to be made, sooner than later.

 

[2Pair]

You made a strong case for the bolded, but I think it's the wrong conclusion. Can we maybe agree that Parise is not the worst forward on the team, but rather is the most over-utilized? I mean, you could give Rask Parise's TOI, and he'd be lower than 8th in points. It's also worth noting that the powerplay is still a thing that players get judged off of, so if, in addition, you also gave Rask Parise's powerplay time, I think he'd be lower on the team than 4th in total points, and certainly lower than 1st in goals.




I wouldn't get too upset by this. Justin Fontaine was a Pts/60 darling, are you mad we didn't re-sign him when his contract was up? If you look up the list for the entire NHL's pts/60, you'll realize it's littered with bottom 6 players, and the only top 6 players at the top of it are the ones that are stars and superstars. That should tell you that it's easier to get points when you aren't as tired as everyone else, and that the only way to overcome that is by being waaaaay better than everyone else. It should not tell you that all of those bottom 6 guys are under-utilized.

In short, /60 stats are only useful for figuring out who the superstars in the league are. You could alternatively just sort by Pts/GP at NHL.com with a >15 games played filter, and it would filter out all of the bottom 6 players and make your life easier. Even that search would be a bit misleading, but less so.

I should note that I do think Donato has more skill than his usage would indicate, but using pts/60 to try to prove it can be flawed, as it can lead to conclusions like "Foligno and Hartman should play on the 1st or 2nd line". Donato has been a casualty of being one of too many wingers with too few spots open. He's a player that goes hot and cold, and so it's risky for a coach to play him over more consistent, lower ceiling guys. It's not fair to him, for sure, and a move will have to be made, sooner than later.

I agree with your comments about the /60 stats. It's wrong to just assume that a player will be able to hold the same numbers if you increase his role/usage. But, that's why I listed the raw numbers as well. When you have the most TOI of everyone but are 8th on the list in points?

We can certainly agree that Parise was definitely the most "over-utilized", but I would love to here who you think was worse than Parise this season?

Parise did have a great year on the PP but he isn't a great PP player. Very good at banging in rebounds and loose pucks around the net, pretty much useless everywhere else. When Kaprizov joins the team, Parise's spot on the PP is gone.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The more I look at at, the more it seems like a bad luck thing, and not him just being flat out terrible.

 

[2Pair]

The more I look at at, the more it seems like a bad luck thing, and not him just being flat out terrible.

People see what they want to see. I guess it's also just bad luck that everyone that plays on a line with him gets worse as well?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

People see what they want to see. I guess it's also just bad luck that everyone that plays on a line with him gets worse as well?

That they do.

I'm just saying that all of the chance generation stuff still seems pretty consistent with where he's always been since he's been here. This year of plummeting in the per 60 stuff is the exception, not the rule, for his time here so far.

So there's 2 possibilities. Either it's just kind of one of those weird seasons that is going to correct itself at least a little bit going forward. Or this is the product of being almost 36 and it's just the new normal. But I don't think that the numbers tell us anything conclusive, in either direction.

 

[2Pair]

That they do.

I'm just saying that all of the chance generation stuff still seems pretty consistent with where he's always been since he's been here. This year of plummeting in the per 60 stuff is the exception, not the rule, for his time here so far.

So there's 2 possibilities. Either it's just kind of one of those weird seasons that is going to correct itself at least a little bit going forward. Or this is the product of being almost 36 and it's just the new normal. But I don't think that the numbers tell us anything conclusive, in either direction.

And then some people back up what they see with actual facts and statistics, others use words like luck.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And then some people back up what they see with actual facts and statistics, others use words like luck.

And your same facts and statistics had Parise as the best forward on the team coming into the season, by a mile, and your dislike for him didn't just appear this season. So maybe you just dislike the guy, and you finally have some stats on your side for a change.

 

[2Pair]

And your same facts and statistics had Parise as the best forward on the team coming into the season, by a mile, and your dislike for him didn't just appear this season. So maybe you just dislike the guy, and you finally have some stats on your side for a change.

You're not going to get very far by calling me biased and then claiming that Parise was "the best forward on the team, by a mile".

Maybe he will get lucky again next year. I sure as f*** hope it isn't on this team.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You're not going to get very far by calling me biased and then claiming that Parise was "the best forward on the team, by a mile".

Maybe he will get lucky again next year. I sure as f*** hope it isn't on this team.

2018-2019 season:

G/60: 0.89 (1st on team, 2nd place is 0.73)
A/60: 1.13 (2nd on team, 0.01 behind Granlund)
P/60: 2.02 (1st on team, 2nd place is 1.81)
4th in ice time for forwards

Or are per 60 numbers only usable to show how bad somebody is?

 

[2Pair]

2018-2019 season:

G/60: 0.89 (1st on team, 2nd place is 0.73)
A/60: 1.13 (2nd on team, 0.01 behind Granlund)
P/60: 2.02 (1st on team, 2nd place is 1.81)
4th in ice time for forwards

Or are per 60 numbers only usable to show how bad somebody is?

Looks like a lucky season to me

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Looks like a lucky season to me

Sucks when the facts and statistics don't line up with the bias, doesn't it?

 

[BagHead]

I agree with your comments about the /60 stats. It's wrong to just assume that a player will be able to hold the same numbers if you increase his role/usage. But, that's why I listed the raw numbers as well. When you have the most TOI of everyone but are 8th on the list in points?

We can certainly agree that Parise was definitely the most "over-utilized", but I would love to here who you think was worse than Parise this season?

Parise did have a great year on the PP but he isn't a great PP player. Very good at banging in rebounds and loose pucks around the net, pretty much useless everywhere else. When Kaprizov joins the team, Parise's spot on the PP is gone.

My argument isn't who was worse than him, it's who would be worse than him given the same ice time. I haven't dug deep enough into how players did in their specific roles to be able to speak eloquently on that. Rask, Hartman, Foligno, and Greenway are the ones I'm pretty confident in saying would be worse in that much of an increased role. There are others I think wouldn't do as well as Parise if given the most TOI of the forwards on the team, but I wouldn't put any money on: namely Galchenyuk and Donato. I think both have the ability to be better than Parise given his ice time, but I'm not sure either way about it. I haven't seen anywhere near enough consistency out of either of them to say they're better. I know you'll disagree with me on most of these examples, and that's ok. It's just my opinion.

I definitely agree with your take about his PP abilites and about his role once Kaprizov shows up. Moving Parise down to the 2nd unit should help that unit, as well. He isn't great (but is still decent) at most of the stuff on the power play these days, but bainging home rebounds is a tried and true tactic, and he's good at it. Tomas Holmstrom wasn't great at most things on the power play, either, but he sure was a solid fixture on the Red Wings PP through the 2000s. I don't want to overstate that role, but it is an important role. Having a shooters PP for the first unit with Kaprizov and Fiala on it and then a bangers PP with Parise and Zuccarello or maybe Kunin/Greenway could be an interesting change-up for opposing defenders.

 

[2Pair]

My argument isn't who was worse than him, it's who would be worse than him given the same ice time. I haven't dug deep enough into how players did in their specific roles to be able to speak eloquently on that. Rask, Hartman, Foligno, and Greenway are the ones I'm pretty confident in saying would be worse in that much of an increased role. There are others I think wouldn't do as well as Parise if given the most TOI of the forwards on the team, but I wouldn't put any money on: namely Galchenyuk and Donato. I think both have the ability to be better than Parise given his ice time, but I'm not sure either way about it. I haven't seen anywhere near enough consistency out of either of them to say they're better. I know you'll disagree with me on most of these examples, and that's ok. It's just my opinion.

I definitely agree with your take about his PP abilites and about his role once Kaprizov shows up. Moving Parise down to the 2nd unit should help that unit, as well. He isn't great (but is still decent) at most of the stuff on the power play these days, but bainging home rebounds is a tried and true tactic, and he's good at it. Tomas Holmstrom wasn't great at most things on the power play, either, but he sure was a solid fixture on the Red Wings PP through the 2000s. I don't want to overstate that role, but it is an important role. Having a shooters PP for the first unit with Kaprizov and Fiala on it and then a bangers PP with Parise and Zuccarello or maybe Kunin/Greenway could be an interesting change-up for opposing defenders.

Foligno and Greenway outscored Parise while playing fewer minutes in a much more defensive role. Hartman scored 4 fewer points from the 4th line with 130 fewer minutes. Pretty sure he could find 4 points playing an extra 10-12 games with guys like Staal, Fiala, Zuccarello. Donato had 2 fewer points in almost 300 fewer minutes. The only real argument for last season is Koivu.

 

[BagHead]

Foligno and Greenway outscored Parise while playing fewer minutes in a much more defensive role. Hartman scored 4 fewer points from the 4th line with 130 fewer minutes. Pretty sure he could find 4 points playing an extra 10-12 games with guys like Staal, Fiala, Zuccarello. Donato had 2 fewer points in almost 300 fewer minutes. The only real argument for last season is Koivu.

That's only a part of the equation though. You have to give them Parise's PP time as well, which would result in more total points for them, but less energy while playing 5v5, and so probably a decrease in their scoring rate at 5v5. You also have a very fresh Parise, now, so you have to factor in that his scoring rate at 5v5 would probably increase. 5v5 is a fruit: If you're trying to compare Parise's 5v5 production to Foligno's, you're not comparing apples to apples, you're comparing oranges to apples. They're both fruit, but they're otherwise quite different.

Given a fresh Parise or a fresh Foligno, and told I need a goal scored, I'd take the fresh Parise.