Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXVII

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I think the cap staying flat for the next 3 years will give us an opportunity to take advantage of some strapped teams. A lot of the contracts given out in the past year were on the projection of a 93 million+ cap 5 years from now. We’d be lucky to hit 85 then with the way things are currently going

 

[AKL]

Also hoping we see a compliance buyout or two over the next couple years. Might not help us take advantage of cash strapped teams, but would allow us to get rid of Parise and Zuccarello's contracts.

 

[57special]

Bazeek has some big league skills, but I doubt his commitment. Hockey boards are now a 365 day thing...you can't just show up in October, start posting, and expect to get likes.

 

[2Pair]

Also hoping we see a compliance buyout or two over the next couple years. Might not help us take advantage of cash strapped teams, but would allow us to get rid of Parise and Zuccarello's contracts.

If Parise is on the roster to start next season, it's another Guerin failure.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If Parise is on the roster to start next season, it's another Guerin failure.

That's an unrealistic expectation.

 

[2Pair]

That's an unrealistic expectation.

I would tend to agree, but when you take it to the point that Guerin did at the deadline? You can't come back from that. Parise was a problem when the coach was building the lineup around him. It's not going to get better now that he knows he isn't wanted on the team.

 

[AKL]

If MIN does somehow win #1, would you guys consider trading with LA to address the center issue, or would you just take Lafreniere and never look back?

Also, now that LA is virtually guaranteed another top center in Byfield, this summer would be a great time to go after either Turcotte or Vilardi. LA has way too many centers in Kopitar, Byfield, Vilardi, Turcotte, Kupari, Madden, Thomas.

 

[Digitalbooya]

If MIN does somehow win #1, would you guys consider trading with LA to address the center issue, or would you just take Lafreniere and never look back?

Also, now that LA is virtually guaranteed another top center in Byfield, this summer would be a great time to go after either Turcotte or Vilardi. LA has way too many centers in Kopitar, Byfield, Vilardi, Turcotte, Kupari, Madden, Thomas.

Take Lafreniere and never look back.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would tend to agree, but when you take it to the point that Guerin did at the deadline? You can't come back from that. Parise was a problem when the coach was building the lineup around him. It's not going to get better now that he knows he isn't wanted on the team.

Probably, but a guy that you say is a basically a 4th liner, that is 36 years old, and has a $7.5M cap hit for another 4 or 5 years, and has full control over whether or not he leaves. It's still not really a "fireable offense". It's a literal impossibility without 2 other things, that are completely outside of his control, lining up.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If MIN does somehow win #1, would you guys consider trading with LA to address the center issue, or would you just take Lafreniere and never look back?

Also, now that LA is virtually guaranteed another top center in Byfield, this summer would be a great time to go after either Turcotte or Vilardi. LA has way too many centers in Kopitar, Byfield, Vilardi, Turcotte, Kupari, Madden, Thomas.

I would lean towards just taking the #1 pick, but it's hard to answer for certain without knowing what else would be coming with the #2.

 

[AKL]

I would lean towards just taking the #1 pick, but it's hard to answer for certain without knowing what else would be coming with the #2.

What would be the minimum you'd need to take it? I'd think about 2+Turcotte/Vilardi, but I'd probably need another solid piece coming back to pull the trigger.

On the other hand, my preference as I touched on above would be to just take Laf and try to get either Vilardi or Turcotte out another way.

 

[2Pair]

Probably, but a guy that you say is a basically a 4th liner, that is 36 years old, and has a $7.5M cap hit for another 4 or 5 years, and has full control over whether or not he leaves. It's still not really a "fireable offense". It's a literal impossibility without 2 other things, that are completely outside of his control, lining up.

I didn't call it a fireable offense. I said it would be a failure. Because it would be a failure. Being a GM is hard. It's why they get paid a ton of money to do it. A quality GM would find a way to make it happen just like a quality GM would be able to acquire a center in a year+. Parise, Dubnyk, and the center position are what will define what kind of GM that Guerin is/will be.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I didn't call it a fireable offense. I said it would be a failure. Because it would be a failure. Being a GM is hard. It's why they get paid a ton of money to do it. A quality GM would find a way to make it happen just like a quality GM would be able to acquire a center in a year+. Parise, Dubnyk, and the center position are what will define what kind of GM that Guerin is/will be.

It’s not a failure if pulling it off basically takes a miracle.

What would be the minimum you'd need to take it? I'd think about 2+Turcotte/Vilardi, but I'd probably need another solid piece coming back to pull the trigger.

On the other hand, my preference as I touched on above would be to just take Laf and try to get either Vilardi or Turcotte out another way.

Yeah, something like that probably. But taking Laf makes guys like Boldy, Beckman, Greenway very expendable to try and grab a center.

I wonder what Greenway + Boldy + Pittsburgh’s 1st could get us, especially with some teams closer to a possible flat cap than us.

 

[2Pair]

It’s not a failure if pulling it off basically takes a miracle.

It doesn't take a miracle. It takes a competent GM.

 

[AKL]

It doesn't take a miracle. It takes a competent GM.

It's pretty well accepted that Parise only accepted a possible trade because it was the Islanders. Given that would require him to once again agree, would require the Islanders to once again be interested, despite adding salary and the cap not increasing for the next three years, and would require Guerin to come to agreement on a deal with one of the most notoriously shrewd GMs in the league? It's really not as easy as you're making it out to be. It's not like we can just come to a deal with Dallas or Colorado or someone else with cap space.

 

[2Pair]

It's pretty well accepted that Parise only accepted a possible trade because it was the Islanders. Given that would require him to once again agree, would require the Islanders to once again be interested, despite adding salary and the cap not increasing for the next three years, and would require Guerin to come to agreement on a deal with one of the most notoriously shrewd GMs in the league? It's really not as easy as you're making it out to be. It's not like we can just come to a deal with Dallas or Colorado or someone else with cap space.

It's pretty well accepted that Parise's mouthpiece reported that he only Blah, Blah ,Blah. Pretending that there was some sort of special connection to the Islanders was silly at best. Parise will do whatever is best for Parise. He's proven that numerous times. Guerin's job is to convince Parise that he's better off somewhere else.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

It's pretty well accepted that Parise's mouthpiece reported that he only Blah, Blah ,Blah. Pretending that there was some sort of special connection to the Islanders was silly at best. Parise will do whatever is best for Parise. He's proven that numerous times. Guerin's job is to convince Parise that he's better off somewhere else.

Convincing Parise that he’s better off somewhere else isn’t too hard. Convincing a GM that they’re better off taking on Parise’s 5 more years is what requires a miracle. Doing both is even more unlikely. I don’t see it happening without taking on salary coming back. At that point, you’ve gotta weigh all the options because you are sending a guy out the door who just paced for 30 goals this year, and all you’re likely getting back is another bad contract.

 

[2Pair]

Convincing Parise that he’s better off somewhere else isn’t too hard. Convincing a GM that they’re better off taking on Parise’s 5 more years is what requires a miracle. Doing both is even more unlikely. I don’t see it happening without taking on salary coming back. At that point, you’ve gotta weigh all the options because you are sending a guy out the door who just paced for 30 goals this year, and all you’re likely getting back is another bad contract.

Yeah, I'm not saying that it should/will be easy. I'm saying that if Guerin is the kind of GM that's worth keeping around, he will find a way. Just like the center and goaltender situations.

The Idea that Parise was a good player for the Wild this season really needs to die. He paced decent numbers because Boudreau forced him on the ice constantly and built the PP around him. He was arguably the worst winger on the team at even strength.

 

[AKL]

I just don't think that dumping one of the most un-dump-able contracts in the league is a fair metric.

Feel free to evaluate him based on the Spurgeon extension, the lack of any kind of moves last season except the one no-brainer that everyone knew was coming, the center and goaltending issues, any of that is fair game, and whatever he does this summer with trades/drafting/free agency. Honestly the fact that he got as close as he did to moving Parise already is way more than I hoped for.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Parise is in some weird company as far as 5v5 P/60 goes: Landeskog, Backstrom, Johansen, Monahan, Seguin, Getzlaf.

Some fairly respected names is such terrible territory.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Yeah, I'm not saying that it should/will be easy. I'm saying that if Guerin is the kind of GM that's worth keeping around, he will find a way. Just like the center and goaltender situations.

The Idea that Parise was a good player for the Wild this season really needs to die. He paced decent numbers because Boudreau forced him on the ice constantly and built the PP around him. He was arguably the worst winger on the team at even strength.

What are you basing this on? I don’t think he’s a dynamic 5v5 player by any means, but outside of the first 10 games of the year he was a serviceable top 6 player. He’s going to drop off even more as he ages but I really don’t see an argument for him being out worst winger at even strength given the current structure of the team.

 

[2Pair]

I just don't think that dumping one of the most un-dump-able contracts in the league is a fair metric.

Feel free to evaluate him based on the Spurgeon extension, the lack of any kind of moves last season except the one no-brainer that everyone knew was coming, the center and goaltending issues, any of that is fair game, and whatever he does this summer with trades/drafting/free agency. Honestly the fact that he got as close as he did to moving Parise already is way more than I hoped for.

I agree with the bolded, but that's also why I feel that he needs to get rid of him this summer. You can't put that cat back in the bag now. How bad will it get if the new coach actually gives him the icetime that he deserves?

I don't mean to come off as super negative towards Guerin. I'm legitimately hoping that he will be the guy for the Wild. I just don't think he's done anything yet to give me that feeling.

 

[AKL]

I agree with the bolded, but that's also why I feel that he needs to get rid of him this summer. You can't put that cat back in the bag now. How bad will it get if the new coach actually gives him the icetime that he deserves?

I don't mean to come off as super negative towards Guerin. I'm legitimately hoping that he will be the guy for the Wild. I just don't think he's done anything yet to give me that feeling.

I completely agree about Guerin, I hope he can be a great GM too, though he hasn't given me much confidence to this point.

But if he goes out and addresses the need for a long term 1 or 2 C, if he addresses the goaltending issue, be it with Kahkonen or someone else, if he has a good draft, if he makes some other good moves, if he doesn't keep handing out questionable contracts, then I'm just not going to hold the Parise thing against him. Yeah, I would strongly prefer to see Parise off this team as soon as next season as well, but I'm expecting that the other issues take priority, so if he addresses those, but Parise is still here, that'll be a net positive.

 

[Minnesnota]

What are you basing this on? I don’t think he’s a dynamic 5v5 player by any means, but outside of the first 10 games of the year he was a serviceable top 6 player. He’s going to drop off even more as he ages but I really don’t see an argument for him being out worst winger at even strength given the current structure of the team.

This is at 5v5:

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

From Natural Stat Trick...5v5 numbers for our forwards that played at least 400 minutes, Parise is:

TOI/GP: 5th
G/60: 10th
P/60: 11th (ahead of only Koivu and Hartman)
Sh%: 10th
ixG/60: 3rd
iSCF/60: 5th
iHDCF/60: 2nd

Last year, those numbers were:

4th
1st
1st
2nd
3rd
3rd
2nd