Trade and Free Agent Discussion Thread - 2018/2019 Season v3

[Rare Jewel]

Nikita Zaitsev
CF%: 47.38(4th worst on the team)
FF%: 44.69(2nd worst on the team
SF/60: 25.31(3rd worst among regulars on the team)

Zaitsev without Gardiner
CF%: 44.60
FF%: 42.31

Gardiner without Zaitsev:
CF%: 52.38
FF%: 50

Yeah Zaitsev is pretty bad

Well...

One has a 53% dzs and the other has 59% at ES. The latter is Zaitsev BTW.

How is that explained? Well you could assume by Babcock using Zaitsev more in the closing minutes (where he's paired with Hainsey) to see out a game where usually the other team is heaping on the pressure and piling up shots is a strong contributing reason.

I'm not saying Zaitsev is better, but they're used quite differently.

Zaitsev's main issue for me is being wasteful with outlets passes.

 

[Rob Brown]

I disagree.

Expecting St Louis to trade an elite d-man for a player most leaf fans would love to get rid of, two maybes and two picks is kinda ridiculous.

A piece like Kapanen is needed in a deal like this.

That is actually a fair proposal.

Do we give up a Kapanen or a Liljegren? Moving Kapanen hurts the offense but helps the back end, but moving Liljegren subtracts nothing from the roster and puts us even more in win now mode. The latter would be dependent on us moving salary, of course.

 

[Menzinger]

I would disagree with that.

4.5M is a fair value for a second pairing guy.

Some guys in the same price range; Matheson, Dumoulin, Murphy, Savard, Tanev, Scandella, Faulk, Bogosian, Stone, Kulikov.

Some slightly better, some slightly worse, some much worse. As the cap increases, it becomes an even cheaper deal to swallow.

Problem is is that he’s nowhere near good enough to justify being given that much job security in terms of contract lemgth.

Given his age, he’s basically is going to be as good as he ever will be. And that’s about a borderline replacement level # 4/5. And Will he even be at that level in say three years? Unknown.

If he younger and cheaper option comes up via the Leafs development system, you’re still stuck paying him 4.5 million in several years. That’s the main reason why I am in favour of dumping him sooner rather than later. Even though he’s been fine-ish given the alternatives this season.

 

[Cor]

Well...

One has a 53% dzs and the other has 59% at ES. The latter is Zaitsev BTW.

How is that explained? Well you could assume by Babcock using Zaitsev more in the closing minutes (where he's paired with Hainsey) to see out a game where usually the other team is heaping on the pressure and piling up shots is a strong contributing reason.

I'm not saying Zaitsev better, but they're used quite differently.

Zaitsev's main issue for me is being wasteful with outlets passes.

The worst thing about CF% is that people often don't look at the context. Roughly 48% xGF% with that in mind is still solid when a player has a OZSR of 41%, which is in the bottom 15 or so among d-men who have played 200+ minutes this season.

The only player among his range who have better numbers than Zaitsev are Hjalmarsson and Pysyk.

 

[Cor]

Do we give up a Kapanen or a Liljegren? Moving Kapanen hurts the offense but helps the back end, but moving Liljegren subtracts nothing from the roster and puts us even more in win now mode. The latter would be dependent on us moving salary, of course.

I mean, I think that is more for STL to decide, not us. I would assume Kappy and Lilly have similar value.

Problem is is that he’s nowhere near good enough to justify being given that much job security in terms of contract lemgth.

Given his age, he’s basically is going to be as good as he ever will be. And that’s about a borderline replacement level # 4/5. And Will he even be at that level in say three years? Unknown.

If he younger and cheaper option comes up via the Leafs development system, you’re still stuck paying him 4.5 million in several years. That’s the main reason why I am in favour of dumping him sooner rather than later. Even though he’s been fine-ish given the alternatives this season.

I'm not arguing that we should look at trading Zaitsev to create some flexibility, based on our cap situation.

However that is a different discussion than Zaitsev being a pure cap dump and a negative asset, which he isn't.

I'd also argue that we shouldn't be traded Zaitsev unless we are getting another defender in return.

I don't see a way we keep Gardiner around unless he takes an insanely sweetheart of a deal, so if we move Zaitsev, we are looking at Rielly, Dermott, Ozhiganov, Rosen, and like... Hainsey coming back making up our top 6.

So while it's easy to say, maybe we should trade Zaitsev, there are a lot of variables to what affect that has.

 

[justafan22]

Borgman, I wonder if the leafs have plans for him.

He's arb eligible this summer

 

[Rare Jewel]

I'm not arguing that we should look at trading Zaitsev to create some flexibility, based on our cap situation.

However that is a different discussion than Zaitsev being a pure cap dump and a negative asset, which he isn't.

I'd also argue that we shouldn't be traded Zaitsev unless we are getting another defender in return.

I don't see a way we keep Gardiner around unless he takes an insanely sweetheart of a deal, so if we move Zaitsev, we are looking at Rielly, Dermott, Ozhiganov, Rosen, and like... Hainsey coming back making up our top 6.

So while it's easy to say, maybe we should trade Zaitsev, there are a lot of variables to what affect that has.

I think possibly the best way to get more out from Zaitsev is for Gardiner to move on so he play on the 2nd PP like he was in his first season.

 

[Cor]

I think possibly the best way to get more out from Zaitsev is for Gardiner to move on so he play on the 2nd PP like he was in his first season.

More offensive production.

But him being on the PP likely reduces his PK time, which I don't think we can really afford.

I assume Dermott is most likely to be the 2PP guy next season, with Lilly taking that spot whenever he's on the main roster.

 

[Rare Jewel]

More offensive production.

But him being on the PP likely reduces his PK time, which I don't think we can really afford.

I assume Dermott is most likely to be the 2PP guy next season, with Lilly taking that spot whenever he's on the main roster.

Allocate the minutes to Dermott, Ozhiganov or if needed someone we can acquire. But I think if he is to stay, then adjusting his role to better utilize him is important.

Also, I'm not sure how I feel about Dermott on the PP in a contract year. I'm sure he could do it, but it may cost us.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Borgman, I wonder if the leafs have plans for him.

He's arb eligible this summer

Don’t think he’s coming back

 

[nuck]

Do we give up a Kapanen or a Liljegren? Moving Kapanen hurts the offense but helps the back end, but moving Liljegren subtracts nothing from the roster and puts us even more in win now mode. The latter would be dependent on us moving salary, of course.

Giving up Lily, unless its for a 1 year rental, isn't shifting to win now. If I have to part with one, in spite of the RD need, its him over Sandin. Kapy is far and away the bigger chip because of the butter soft forward contingent. I still like Liljegren as a prospect but I have no faith he will be a better NHLer than Dermott or Sandin. If I can deal him for a legitimate top four RD who is better than Zaits its going to happen.

I think possibly the best way to get more out from Zaitsev is for Gardiner to move on so he play on the 2nd PP like he was in his first season.

Look at him a the WHC. He can produce offensively when not put in the support role. I am not sure what they have with him as all three years with the team seem different, like we are seeing what he is told to do rather than what is natural for him. He has 40pt potential with the right partner.

 

[member 147413]

There’s a few moves I’d like to make to really shore up our D and save some money.

Kadri for Pesce

Brown for Pysyk

Zaitsev for Faksa

 

[Dreakmur]

There’s a few moves I’d like to make to really shore up our D and save some money.

Kadri for Pesce

Brown for Pysyk

Zaitsev for Faksa

I'd like all those trades too.... want to guess why? lol

 

[Trapper]

What if St. Louis said Pietrangelo for Nylander straight up?
Except there is one problem.

 

[member 147413]

I'd like all those trades too.... want to guess why? lol

The first two have been agreed upon by both fan bases at some point.

Dallas needs D help and Zaitsev could fit in a different role there on a more European style D and Faksa has been poor this year. Entirely depends on how Dallas would see Zaitsev.

Heiskanen - Klingberg is an elite elite top pair making matchups easy for Lindell - Zaitsev, I think he would do really well in Dallas. They could then ship their depth D for late picks or random F prospects who could use a change of scenery to teams who need D depth.

Meanwhile Leafs buy low on Faksa, sell high on Kadri and shed some salary. Getting stronger on the right side D, losing depth down the middle and Brown who is more of a luxury at this point.

It doesn’t seems crazy to me value wise and fills needs for receiving teams.

Don’t think we’d ever move that many roster guys this far into the season with us doing so well.

 

[Dreakmur]

The first two have been agreed upon by both fan bases at some point.

Dallas needs D help and Zaitsev could fit in a different role there on a more European style D and Faksa has been poor this year. Entirely depends on how Dallas would see Zaitsev.

Heiskanen - Klingberg is an elite elite top pair making matchups easy for Lindell - Zaitsev, I think he would do really well in Dallas. They could then ship their depth D for late picks or random F prospects who could use a change of scenery to teams who need D depth.

Meanwhile Leafs buy low on Faksa, sell high on Kadri and shed some salary. Getting stronger on the right side D, losing depth down the middle and Brown who is more of a luxury at this point.

It doesn’t seems crazy to me value wise and fills needs for receiving teams.

Don’t think we’d ever move that many roster guys this far into the season with us doing so well.

If Dubas could get Pysyk for Brown, it’s a firable offense to not pull the trigger....

 

[sxvnert]

I disagree.

Expecting St Louis to trade an elite d-man for a player most leaf fans would love to get rid of, two maybes and two picks is kinda ridiculous.

Just wait a year then. Sign Myers instead of Gards this summer.

In 20/21:
Rielly Pietrangelo
Dermott Myers
Sandin Liljegren

 

[Fogelhund]

Just wait a year then. Sign Myers instead of Gards this summer.

In 20/21:
Rielly Pietrangelo
Dermott Myers
Sandin Liljegren

So...

Rielly at $5 mil
Pietrangelo at $8 mil.
Dermott at $4 mil
Myers @ $6 mil
With Sandin and Liljegren coming off their contracts the following year!!!

With about $52 million tied up in forwards, you've got $26 million in defense. $6.25 in goalies and $1.2 from Phil... approx $86 million for the Cap.... Will it go up that much?

 

[WTFMAN99]

So...

Rielly at $5 mil
Pietrangelo at $8 mil.
Dermott at $4 mil
Myers @ $6 mil
With Sandin and Liljegren coming off their contracts the following year!!!

With about $52 million tied up in forwards, you've got $26 million in defense. $6.25 in goalies and $1.2 from Phil... approx $86 million for the Cap.... Will it go up that much?

I would say with it being around 83M this upcoming off season, maybe up to 85M with max inflator...and NHL getting into gambling+Seattle expansion, it's possible for a 86-90M cap the following year.

 

[Americanadian]

So...

Rielly at $5 mil
Pietrangelo at $8 mil.
Dermott at $4 mil
Myers @ $6 mil
With Sandin and Liljegren coming off their contracts the following year!!!

With about $52 million tied up in forwards, you've got $26 million in defense. $6.25 in goalies and $1.2 from Phil... approx $86 million for the Cap.... Will it go up that much?

Have you seen Myers numbers going into a contract year?

 

[Fogelhund]

Have you seen Myers numbers going into a contract year?

Yes, but assuming that he goes to UFA, which seems likely, he's still going to be a rare RHD, with a decent record over his career. People might look and see, his minutes have been dropped by three minutes a game, and he's being used in more of a defensive role. His even strength points aren't far off, but his PP is substantially off, as is his TOI for the PP..... so the question will become, is this a performance, or usage thing? Given the lack of RHD out there, will someone step up and pay, due to Supply vs. Demand?

So, my estimate might have overpaid him by $1mil... or not... I'm not sure it's wholly relevant when trying to estimate a team cap anyway....

 

[4thline]

Given his age, he’s basically is going to be as good as he ever will be. And that’s about a borderline replacement level # 4/5. And Will he even be at that level in say three years? Unknown.

If he younger and cheaper option comes up via the Leafs development system, you’re still stuck paying him 4.5 million in several years. That’s the main reason why I am in favour of dumping him sooner rather than later. Even though he’s been fine-ish given the alternatives this season.

4/5 D are not replacement level, that's a contradiction. He's a defensive 4D IMO @Cor and others have provided the context for his possession metrics. He has his flaws (or he'd be better than a 4/5) but is still a good inzone defender. He's paid at the high end of fair for what he brings. If a younger cheap option comes along and supplants him then we have a 3 in the 4/5 spot making 6/7 money and a 4/5 in the 5 spot making 4/5 money. Seems like a good dcore.

If Zaitsev is going we need another top 4 coming in, whether it's in the same transaction or not. The odds of that defenseman being more cap efficient aren't super good.

 

[SprDaVE]

4/5 D are not replacement level, that's a contradiction. He's a defensive 4D IMO @Cor and others have provided the context for his possession metrics. He has his flaws (or he'd be better than a 4/5) but is still a good inzone defender. He's paid at the high end of fair for what he brings. If a younger cheap option comes along and supplants him then we have a 3 in the 4/5 spot making 6/7 money and a 4/5 in the 5 spot making 4/5 money. Seems like a good dcore.

If Zaitsev is going we need another top 4 coming in, whether it's in the same transaction or not. The odds of that defenseman being more cap efficient aren't super good.

This is where Dubas' should shine hopefully. It's finding efficient players to fit specific roles.

Zaitsev is badly overpaid. I would say around 1.5M over his skillset. The term just makes it an awful signing. You can find ~15 point defenseman that can kill penalties and play 18 minutes a game for a lot cheaper than Zaitsev. Sure, he's relied on a lot of defensive zone starts and doesn't get to play PP, but he doesn't just do well in the role he's being put in nor was he very good in the other more offensive role he was in. I don't understand how anyone can look at Zaitsev, both analytically and just with the eye test, and say that's a worthy defenseman.

If there's a way to turn Zaitsev into a legit top pairing defenseman, or if there's a way to replace him with a much cheaper alternative, the Leafs should be and will be all over that in the next year. Let's hope Dubas can find someone to take him on.

 

[4thline]

This is where Dubas' should shine hopefully. It's finding efficient players to fit specific roles.

Zaitsev is badly overpaid. I would say around 2M over his skillset. The term just makes it an awful signing. You can find ~15 point defenseman that can kill penalties and play 18 minutes a game for a lot cheaper than Zaitsev. Sure, he's relied on a lot of defensive zone starts and doesn't get to play PP, but he doesn't just do well in the role he's being put in nor was he very good in the other more offensive role he was in. I don't understand how anyone can look at Zaitsev, both analytically and just with the eye test, and say that's a worthy defenseman.

If there's a way to turn Zaitsev into a legit top pairing defenseman, or if there's a way to replace him with a much cheaper alternative, the Leafs should be and will be all over that in the next year. Let's hope Dubas can find someone to take him on.

If we can replace him with a cheaper 4 RHD that can handle his usage, has comparable inzone defense, and is better in transition then of course we should.

I just can't think of a single player (available or not) that fits that bill. Maybe Daley in the short term, but those guys are few and far between.

Stralman would be an upgrade, but we'd pay for it.

Other than 2nd contracts or late bloomers 4-5 million dollars gets you a defenseman with a glaring flaw or that is fairly mediocre. It's just life in 2018

 

[SprDaVE]

If we can replace him with a cheaper 4 RHD that can handle his usage, has comparable inzone defense, and is better in transition then of course we should.

I just can't think of a single player (available or not) that fits that bill. Maybe Daley in the short term, but those guys are few and far between.

Stralman would be an upgrade, but we'd pay for it.

Other than 2nd contracts or late bloomers 4-5 million dollars gets you a defenseman with a glaring flaw or that is fairly mediocre. It's just life in 2018

I haven't gone through a list of players but I'm sure there's plenty of defenseman that could do the same role for cheaper, or finding an actual upgrade (to then push down Hainsey or promote Dermott) in order to replace his minutes.

That Pietrangelo for Zaistev (and other parts) rumour would be the best thing ever.

I really do believe Dubas' big task will be revamping the defensive core. It's been a mess for way too long. I really hope Sandin and Liljegren turn out to be as good as their potential suggests.