Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Monahan would be high on my list as well. Lucky for us fans the adults in charge apparently know better:

I'm ****in' psyched to go into next year with Rask and Ek as our top two centers again. I'll get about 205 hours of my life back.

So strange. There a couple of scenarios I see here. it could be that (1) Guerin doesn't like Monahan's game, (2) Treliving was asking far too much for the player, (3) Guerin really wasn't looking to take on any term at that point in the process, or (4, the 2pair explanation) Guerin is an idiot.

If it's 3, maybe that has changed now that he's had more evaluation time. If Guerin is considering running Rask/Ek again then it's 4. Hopefully someone get's him to expand on WSITH about Guerin not having interest in Monahan.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

He’d probably be my Plan C, but there’s definitely more smoke around him than either of my Plan A or B, so he may be it by default.

What's plan A and B?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I am guessing that Trekiving values Monahan more than CAL's disappointed fan base. I think they are comparing Monahan to the other great C's in Canada, and find him wanting. I'd be good with a guy who can score, has a decent contract and size, and can win a FO. I don't care that he isn't a transformative player.

The big thing for me is that we need another top 6 center, I'm not interested in making a bad deal, but there's gotta be a middle-ground between doing nothing again and mortgaging the future for a solution. Funny enough, even after all the complaining about the center group last year, Guerin managed to downgrade the position, rather than upgrade it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

What's plan A and B?

Lindholm and Schmaltz

Not counting Eichel/Barkov/Zibanejad types.

 

[57special]

The big thing for me is that we need another top 6 center, I'm not interested in making a bad deal, but there's gotta be a middle-ground between doing nothing again and mortgaging the future for a solution. Funny enough, even after all the complaining about the center group last year, Guerin managed to downgrade the position, rather than upgrade it.

Bonino has been a disappointment, Johansson isn't a C, Bjugstad and Rask are a year or two away from being out of the league for good.
We can't be expecting Rossi to come in as a rookie and give us top 6C minutes, but so far that seems to be the plan. Does anyone know if Beckman has been playing C in Spokane?

 

[nickschultzfan]

So strange. There a couple of scenarios I see here. it could be that (1) Guerin doesn't like Monahan's game, (2) Treliving was asking far too much for the player, (3) Guerin really wasn't looking to take on any term at that point in the process, or (4, the 2pair explanation) Guerin is an idiot.

If it's 3, maybe that has changed now that he's had more evaluation time. If Guerin is considering running Rask/Ek again then it's 4. Hopefully someone get's him to expand on WSITH about Guerin not having interest in Monahan.

Monahan is not really Guerin's type of guy. He disappears. Gets lots of his production from PP. Defensively suspect. Low energy. On a contender, he would be the offensive 2C that should have an elite 1C in front of him and a workhorse shut-down center behind him.

However, Wild need help on their 1st PP at center and in the faceoff dot. Monahan would be an upgrade over Rask for sure. I think there is a role for him between JEE and Rossi moving forward. I do not think he will cost too much. But I am not Guerin.

 

[Bazeek]

So strange. There a couple of scenarios I see here. it could be that (1) Guerin doesn't like Monahan's game, (2) Treliving was asking far too much for the player, (3) Guerin really wasn't looking to take on any term at that point in the process, or (4, the 2pair explanation) Guerin is an idiot.

If it's 3, maybe that has changed now that he's had more evaluation time. If Guerin is considering running Rask/Ek again then it's 4. Hopefully someone get's him to expand on WSITH about Guerin not having interest in Monahan.

I think some combination of 1-3 is a fair explanation without jumping immediately to 4. The Flames have been in a precarious spot and don't have an immediate replacement for Monahan, so it could very well be that the asking price wasn't all that reasonable. What really worries me is that:

1. Russo has been so unequivocal about Guerin's disinterest in Monahan. It's not that he was too expensive, or the term wasn't right or whatever; he just flat out is not interested.
2. We saw a similar player, Trocheck, move for a very reasonable price last deadline. Again, Russo's seemed to think there was minimal interest from Guerin.
3. The only "plan" we've gotten an inkling of from Guerin was what he did last summer: shipped out Staal and added Bonino, Bjugstad and Johansson. I assumed at the time that the plan was just to punt on this year and I'm more or less okay with that... but wtf is the follow-up here?

I'm at the point where I can't lie myself into thinking there are any real stakes with the team this year, and there's been zero indication that management is even thinking about what'll happen this summer beyond sacrificing Dumba to Seattle and hoping that 5'9" Marco Rossi recovers and is magically a 2C in his first year of pro hockey.

I'm happy to give him until next fall to actually render judgement, but holy **** does it feel like the plan is to just keep kicking the can until a wizard saves us or something.

 

[GuerinUp]

I've been spending some time looking at our options for a center acquisition, trying to account for things like risk, cost, production, availability, etc. and the guy I keep coming back to is Monahan. If he's as available as flames fans seem to think he is/will be, he's my plan A. I'm not an expert on his game, but from reading the flames board, it seems that he's a good finisher with underrated playmaking. He's been average defensively, but this year his numbers, as are his whole teams', are pretty poor defensively. Grazing through his stats, it seems he's not exactly a catalyst offensively, but if he has someone else on his line driving the offense he can more than keep up. Here's a breakdown of his points along with Guadreau's, whom he's been stapled to:

2016-2017: Gaudreau-61; Monahan-58
2017-2018: Gaudreau-84; Monahan-64
2018-2019: Gaudreau-99; Monahan-82

**Guadreau declines**

2019-2020: Gaudreau-58; Monahan 48 (shortend season)
2020-2021: Gaudreau-55; Monahan-49 (pacing)

Those numbers relate pretty well to producing when given good line mates. If we give him Kaprizov who can give 70-80 points, he might be able to get back to being a 60-70 point guy. He's 26 with 5 27+ goal seasons and he and 4 60+ point seasons. I realize there will be people who are going to look at the numbers he's been putting up lately and be deterred, but you have to balance all the information. It's similar to Trocheck in that you're betting on him being able to get back to the level he was previously at with a change of scenery. The risk isn't terrible, either. his deal is up after 22/23 so we'd have two seasons to evaluate where/if he fits in longterm. If you can get him for something around Dumba it's a win for me. If you're following St. Louis' blueprint of building off an elite defense and an electrifying Russian winger, Monahan slots in longterm in a similar fashion to Brayden Schenn.

what makes you so sure its gaudreau declining making monahan drop, instead of the opposite?

 

[Soldier13Fox]

I'm happy to give him until next fall to actually render judgement, but holy **** does it feel like the plan is to just keep kicking the can until a wizard saves us or something.

I'm right there with you. I just keep telling myself he has a plan, he has a plan, he has a plan ... but after each repetition I also think ... what if there isn't a plan???

 

[57special]

I like the Wizard idea, though it's hard to find one these days, let alone a good one.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Bonino has been a disappointment, Johansson isn't a C, Bjugstad and Rask are a year or two away from being out of the league for good.
We can't be expecting Rossi to come in as a rookie and give us top 6C minutes, but so far that seems to be the plan. Does anyone know if Beckman has been playing C in Spokane?

He hasn’t been, and from my viewings he hasn’t been playing to well either.

I think some combination of 1-3 is a fair explanation without jumping immediately to 4. The Flames have been in a precarious spot and don't have an immediate replacement for Monahan, so it could very well be that the asking price wasn't all that reasonable. What really worries me is that:

1. Russo has been so unequivocal about Guerin's disinterest in Monahan. It's not that he was too expensive, or the term wasn't right or whatever; he just flat out is not interested.
2. We saw a similar player, Trocheck, move for a very reasonable price last deadline. Again, Russo's seemed to think there was minimal interest from Guerin.
3. The only "plan" we've gotten an inkling of from Guerin was what he did last summer: shipped out Staal and added Bonino, Bjugstad and Johansson. I assumed at the time that the plan was just to punt on this year and I'm more or less okay with that... but wtf is the follow-up here?

I'm at the point where I can't lie myself into thinking there are any real stakes with the team this year, and there's been zero indication that management is even thinking about what'll happen this summer beyond sacrificing Dumba to Seattle and hoping that 5'9" Marco Rossi recovers and is magically a 2C in his first year of pro hockey.

I'm happy to give him until next fall to actually render judgement, but holy **** does it feel like the plan is to just keep kicking the can until a wizard saves us or something.

I think that was his plan and he probably didn’t want Monahan because it was a punt year so why take on term, but I’d hope that with the teams performance he’s increased his urgency to actually add to the center group going forward. If word gets out this summer that he still doesn’t have much interest in these types of players I’ll be a little alarmed.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I've been spending some time looking at our options for a center acquisition, trying to account for things like risk, cost, production, availability, etc. and the guy I keep coming back to is Monahan. If he's as available as flames fans seem to think he is/will be, he's my plan A. I'm not an expert on his game, but from reading the flames board, it seems that he's a good finisher with underrated playmaking. He's been average defensively, but this year his numbers, as are his whole teams', are pretty poor defensively. Grazing through his stats, it seems he's not exactly a catalyst offensively, but if he has someone else on his line driving the offense he can more than keep up. Here's a breakdown of his points along with Guadreau's, whom he's been stapled to:

2016-2017: Gaudreau-61; Monahan-58
2017-2018: Gaudreau-84; Monahan-64
2018-2019: Gaudreau-99; Monahan-82

**Guadreau declines**

2019-2020: Gaudreau-58; Monahan 48 (shortend season)
2020-2021: Gaudreau-55; Monahan-49 (pacing)

Those numbers relate pretty well to producing when given good line mates. If we give him Kaprizov who can give 70-80 points, he might be able to get back to being a 60-70 point guy. He's 26 with 5 27+ goal seasons and he and 4 60+ point seasons. I realize there will be people who are going to look at the numbers he's been putting up lately and be deterred, but you have to balance all the information. It's similar to Trocheck in that you're betting on him being able to get back to the level he was previously at with a change of scenery. The risk isn't terrible, either. his deal is up after 22/23 so we'd have two seasons to evaluate where/if he fits in longterm. If you can get him for something around Dumba it's a win for me. If you're following St. Louis' blueprint of building off an elite defense and an electrifying Russian winger, Monahan slots in longterm in a similar fashion to Brayden Schenn.

He fits the mold of offensive center and then we can just rely on our elite defense to cover for his poor defense as long as he lots 30 goals a season next to Kap

 

[Minnewildsota]

Monahan would be high on my list as well. Lucky for us fans the adults in charge apparently know better:

I'm ****in' psyched to go into next year with Rask and Ek as our top two centers again. I'll get about 205 hours of my life back.

Correct. They had no interest at the time.

No idea why you guys get so worked up about this stuff.

 

[Bazeek]

Correct. They had no interest at the time.

No idea why you guys get so worked up about this stuff.

I'm not worked up about Monahan. I'm worked up about 1.5 years of zero urgency around a decade(s) long problem, while most of the other pieces are falling into place. Every time a name comes up the only information we get (directly or indirectly) boils down to "nah, not him." Cool, then who?

 

[keppel146]

I’m assuming no blockbuster trades for us will be made before the deadline.

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

I'm not worked up about Monahan. I'm worked up about 1.5 years of zero urgency around a decade(s) long problem, while most of the other pieces are falling into place. Every time a name comes up the only information we get (directly or indirectly) boils down to "nah, not him." Cool, then who?

I think the thing is character when it's comes to Guerin

Apparently on Calgary's board, & on NHL network, they talked about how Gaudreau along with Monahan quit on the new coach from the beginning

Kevin weeks, this former player who played for Canucks, & another NHL analyst blast both guys especially Gaudreau who released a statement to media essentially saying he has no interest in playing the style their new coach asked from them.

So as much I want Monahan, we already have too many prideful people that Guerin got rid of

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think some combination of 1-3 is a fair explanation without jumping immediately to 4. The Flames have been in a precarious spot and don't have an immediate replacement for Monahan, so it could very well be that the asking price wasn't all that reasonable. What really worries me is that:

1. Russo has been so unequivocal about Guerin's disinterest in Monahan. It's not that he was too expensive, or the term wasn't right or whatever; he just flat out is not interested.
2. We saw a similar player, Trocheck, move for a very reasonable price last deadline. Again, Russo's seemed to think there was minimal interest from Guerin.
3. The only "plan" we've gotten an inkling of from Guerin was what he did last summer: shipped out Staal and added Bonino, Bjugstad and Johansson. I assumed at the time that the plan was just to punt on this year and I'm more or less okay with that... but wtf is the follow-up here?

I'm at the point where I can't lie myself into thinking there are any real stakes with the team this year, and there's been zero indication that management is even thinking about what'll happen this summer beyond sacrificing Dumba to Seattle and hoping that 5'9" Marco Rossi recovers and is magically a 2C in his first year of pro hockey.

I'm happy to give him until next fall to actually render judgement, but holy **** does it feel like the plan is to just keep kicking the can until a wizard saves us or something.

At this point, if Dumba ends up on Seattle, I’m hoping it’s because they paid us at least a little bit not to trade him elsewhere.

 

[Bazeek]

I think the thing is character when it's comes to Guerin

Apparently on Calgary's board, & on NHL network, they talked about how Gaudreau along with Monahan quit on the new coach from the beginning

Kevin weeks, this former player who played for Canucks, & another NHL analyst blast both guys especially Gaudreau who released a statement to media essentially saying he has no interest in playing the style their new coach asked from them.

So as much I want Monahan, we already have too many prideful people that Guerin got rid of

And all of that's fine, as is moving Staal to address the "country club" atmosphere even when we didn't really have a replacement for him. But I'm tired of the Goldilocks routine. Guerin needs to pick a ****ing bowl of porridge at some point and his grace period is pretty much over.

At this point, if Dumba ends up on Seattle, I’m hoping it’s because they paid us at least a little bit not to trade him elsewhere.

I'm sure plan A is still to move him before the draft and I don't think there will be zero options, but I get the sinking feeling that the offers will again not be "good enough."

"We didn't want to risk losing Dumba and Soucy in one summer."
"This team's strength is it's blueline and it was important to keep that strong."
"Opening up $6 million in cap space is an enormous benefit."
"We've got some good center options internally."

They've already started floating this stuff.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And all of that's fine, as is moving Staal to address the "country club" atmosphere even when we didn't really have a replacement for him. But I'm tired of the Goldilocks routine. Guerin needs to pick a ****ing bowl of porridge at some point and his grace period is pretty much over.


I'm sure plan A is still to move him before the draft and I don't think there will be zero options, but I get the sinking feeling that the offers will again not be "good enough."

"We didn't want to risk losing Dumba and Soucy in one summer."
"This team's strength is it's blueline and it was important to keep that strong."
"Opening up $6 million in cap space is an enormous benefit."
"We've got some good center options internally."

They've already started floating this stuff.

I’d have a pre-ED Dumba trade as the odds on favorite as well, but it’s definitely not as much as it once was, which is getting worrisome.

 

[AKL]

The only reason there's a sense of urgency is because some of you create it in your heads, and any deal that improves our center position is a good deal, regardless of any secondary or tertiary impacts it might have going forward.

I'd love to be able to just "get a center", but very few become available, and when they do, half the league is interested. Now the price goes up and you're probably giving up a piece that's crucial to your future.

He was in on PLD, so it's not like he's not trying to find a center. We just got outbid. But when he's already talked about how we need better centers, and he's clearly having conversations with other GMs about getting them, the only conclusion I can come to when some of you talk about urgency is that you'd rather him make a bad deal that results in us getting an average 2C, than wait for the right deal.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would like our GM to proactively make a good move to fill the biggest glaring hole in the roster. I’m not sure why this would be a controversial take.

 

[AKL]

I would like our GM to proactively make a good move to fill the biggest glaring hole in the roster. I’m not sure why this would be a controversial take.

It's not a controversial take. Everyone wants that. It's also not what I said. You're severely oversimplifying the discussion.

 

[Bazeek]

The only reason there's a sense of urgency is because some of you create it in your heads, and any deal that improves our center position is a good deal, regardless of any secondary or tertiary impacts it might have going forward.

I'd love to be able to just "get a center", but very few become available, and when they do, half the league is interested. Now the price goes up and you're probably giving up a piece that's crucial to your future.

He was in on PLD, so it's not like he's not trying to find a center. We just got outbid. But when he's already talked about how we need better centers, and he's clearly having conversations with other GMs about getting them, the only conclusion I can come to when some of you talk about urgency is that you'd rather him make a bad deal that results in us getting an average 2C, than wait for the right deal.

No one wants to make a bad deal, but "bad deal" is necessarily subjective. We all seem to have pretty specific ideas about kind of move we would or would not find acceptable, but disagreeing on the particulars doesn't mean anyone's advocating for something reckless.

Patience is fine and the flipside of the center talk is that I'm also totally okay reorienting toward the future... but that also doesn't seem to be what we're doing. If that was the plan and Guerin was thinking more about 2023 or 2024, one of Dumba or Spurgeon wouldn't be on this team right now, full stop.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It's not a controversial take. Everyone wants that. It's also not what I said. You're severely oversimplifying the discussion.

It’s what the discussion is though. We’re trying to figure out a) who could available, and b) would it be a good move. If you want to plant yourself on the “no” side of part B the whole time, that’s your prerogative.

 

[AKL]

It’s what the discussion is though. We’re trying to figure out a) who could available, and b) would it be a good move. If you want to plant yourself on the “no” side of part B the whole time, that’s your prerogative.

No, the discussion was urgency and how some people think Guerin should have manufactured a good trade out of nothing by now. It doesn't work that way and it's naive to think otherwise. All he can do is try to find something and make the deal if it's good.

Again, if top 6 centers were easy to find and acquire, we wouldn't be in this situation in the first place. I am all for getting a center, and I've been okay with several names thrown around over Guerin's tenure.

But the sense of urgency some of you think exists isn't real, and when you're talking about a deal of this magnitude, it shouldn't.