Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[57special]

I don't know that SEA will be falling all over themselves to pick KK. They will be awash in G and dmen choices, either at the draft or in the RFA/UFA window. Quality forwards, especially C's will be much more difficult to find.

 

[2Pair]

Expose whichever goalie has the best chance of being taken if it means keeping the defense together. Talbot has been outstanding, but there are goalies like him available every summer

 

[larueskee]

I don't see Cole staying for a chance to play 15 minutes a night. i don't see Soucy leading the team in plus minus without Cole. Best bet on defense is for Dumba to move out of the organization anyway you can get it done. With that said the plus minus for Suter and Spurgeon isn't what it should be either. The Wild have just about the best d in the league but the loss of just one guy ( if it was Dumba ) wouldn't hurt much. Dumba forgets to play defense and his two minute shifts are getting old.

 

[2Pair]

I don't see Cole staying for a chance to play 15 minutes a night. i don't see Soucy leading the team in plus minus without Cole. Best bet on defense is for Dumba to move out of the organization anyway you can get it done. With that said the plus minus for Suter and Spurgeon isn't what it should be either. The Wild have just about the best d in the league but the loss of just one guy ( if it was Dumba ) wouldn't hurt much. Dumba forgets to play defense and his two minute shifts are getting old.

Average shift length -
Dumba 57 seconds
Brodin 55 seconds
Suter 55 seconds
Spurgeon 54 seconds

 

[ThatGuy22]

I have a feeling i'm going to hate the terms of this contract

 

[Prior]

It’s amusing to see the type of minutes Dumba is playing this season and have people come away with any type of concern around his actual defending.

But go ahead and champion for Soucy to see increased role next season and see how that works out.

 

[Prior]

I have a feeling i'm going to hate the terms of this contract

It’s going to be terrible knowing the type of contracts they still have to hand out.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I have a feeling i'm going to hate the terms of this contract

I retract this statement

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If the rumors about Guerin wanting to re-sign Cole are accurate, I wonder what we're going to do with Addison/Menell.

If we assume what a lot of people here don't want to happen, that we let Seattle take Dumba for "cap space", and bring Cole back. That's:

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Menell/Addison
Soucy - Cole

I know Menell doesn't have much leverage, but I doubt he wants to come back, after what he did in his last year in the AHL + this year in the KHL, just to go back down to Iowa. And Addison is making a pretty good case to get a long look at the NHL roster as soon as next year.

This is why I have always assumed (up to this point), that it was going to go: Dumba traded --> Soucy taken --> Cole re-signed. We'd have two open puck-moving RD spots next to a couple of good, stable LDs. Add in the assets gained from a Dumba trade, even if it's not completely full value, it's at least palatable.

 

[MuckOG]

If the rumors about Guerin wanting to re-sign Cole are accurate, I wonder what we're going to do with Addison/Menell.

If we assume what a lot of people here don't want to happen, that we let Seattle take Dumba for "cap space", and bring Cole back. That's:

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Menell/Addison
Soucy - Cole

I know Menell doesn't have much leverage, but I doubt he wants to come back, after what he did in his last year in the AHL + this year in the KHL, just to go back down to Iowa. And Addison is making a pretty good case to get a long look at the NHL roster as soon as next year.

This is why I have always assumed (up to this point), that it was going to go: Dumba traded --> Soucy taken --> Cole re-signed. We'd have two open puck-moving RD spots next to a couple of good, stable LDs. Add in the assets gained from a Dumba trade, even if it's not completely full value, it's at least palatable.

I could see Soucy moving up to play LD with Brodin playing RD. Cole and Menell/Addison as the 3rd pairing, at least to start the season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I could see Soucy moving up to play LD with Brodin playing RD. Cole and Menell/Addison as the 3rd pairing, at least to start the season.

The "slash" is what I'm talking about.

Menell, KHL, 23 y/o, 38 in 47.

Addison, AHL, 20 y/o, 17 in 22.

Are we really holding one of these guys out of the NHL lineup next year?

 

[PuckInTheNards]

He’ll be 34 by the time of the expansion draft. Got to protect the kid that’s a decade younger imo.

I respect your logic here, but I think we'll have to agree to disagree. Talbot's simply been too good to expose, IMO. Guess we'll see how it goes.

 

[GordieGallant]

Would be surprised if Dumba and Fiala are on the roster come fall.

 

[MuckOG]

The "slash" is what I'm talking about.

Menell, KHL, 23 y/o, 38 in 47.

Addison, AHL, 20 y/o, 17 in 22.

Are we really holding one of these guys out of the NHL lineup next year?

If they sign Menell, I would think he would start the season in the NHL.....Addison would start in Iowa and fill in for injuries/when needed. Cole could be a TDL deal to open up a full time spot of Addison if he shows he can handle it.

Would be surprised if Dumba and Fiala are on the roster come fall.

I agree on Dumba....I'll bet my next mortgage payment that Fiala is re-signed.

 

[GordieGallant]

If management thinks Boldy is ready to step in I can see a Fiala trade for a top six center or a t6c for Jan.

 

[GordieGallant]

Average shift length -
Dumba 57 seconds
Brodin 55 seconds
Suter 55 seconds
Spurgeon 54 seconds

Wow

 

[GordieGallant]

Expose whichever goalie has the best chance of being taken if it means keeping the defense together. Talbot has been outstanding, but there are goalies like him available every summer

And they have the UMass kid in the pipeline.

 

[ThatGuy22]

If management thinks Boldy is ready to step in I can see a Fiala trade for a top six center or a t6c for Jan.

With Colorado in the division for the foreseeable future, I would venture BG thinks he needs as much firepower as possible.

 

[larueskee]

Average shift length -
Dumba 57 seconds
Brodin 55 seconds
Suter 55 seconds
Spurgeon 54 seconds

Dude how / where do you get your information, last night Dumba was @ 64.63 seconds per shift and regularly exceeds the 22 shifts and time on ice he played last night. The " everyone knows a NHL shift should be no more 45 seconds " means that Dumba regularly handicaps his team by being drained. So really where did you come up with that information? I went through his game log and I bet if I went through some more games I would find much more evidence of a real problem. Do you remember the loss to the Blues? Dumba averaged 67.5 seconds a shift that game and there was a reason he was minus 3.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Dude how / where do you get your information, last night Dumba was @ 64.63 seconds per shift and regularly exceeds the 22 shifts and time on ice he played last night. The " everyone knows a NHL shift should be no more 45 seconds " means that Dumba regularly handicaps his team by being drained. So really where did you come up with that information? I went through his game log and I bet if I went through some more games I would find much more evidence of a real problem. Do you remember the loss to the Blues? Dumba averaged 67.5 seconds a shift that game and there was a reason he was minus 3.

Probably total ice time divided by total shifts.

 

[larueskee]

Probably total ice time divided by total shifts.

Well yeah but did you go through his game logs? You do realize that a minute is 60 seconds. In last nights game Dumba had 22 shifts. He had 23.07 minutes of ice time. 23x 60 seconds is 1380 seconds add in 42 seconds for his .07 and that would make 1422 seconds of ice time. Divide the 1422 seconds of ice time by the number of his shifts which was 22 and you have 64.63 per shift which is just too long. Dumba has regularly had the two minute shift because he can't get off the ice. The other top 4 really are no better and it could be a coaching issue. Its working for the most part now but it won't fly in a 7 game series. None of these guys are Bobby Orr.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Kaprizov pretty much has no comparables, so predicting his contract is a shot on the dark. I believe Russo said that he thinks Guerin would go in the 8s on an 8 year deal, so let's just assume the max and say he gets 8.5M.

Fiala after this season is going to have 2 seasons with 50-70 point paces. A decent comparable for him would be Nik Ehlers, who signed a 7 year deal 60 and 64 point seasons. He was at 6Mx7. Another good comparable is Timo Meier, who signed for 4 years at 6M after a 66 point, 30 goal campaign. Nylander signed for 6.9M for 6 years, which is more than he should've gotten, and is more than I'd be interested in giving Fiala at this point. The deal I'd be looking for is 6M x 5 years. If I'm a betting man, I think Fiala tries to get another big payday after this one and does something like 5.75x4 years. Let's say his cap hit is 6M.

Before Expansion:
Kaprizov(8.5M)
Spurgeon(7.57M)
Parise/Suter(7.53M)
Fiala/Zuccarello/Brodin/Dumba(6M)
Rask(4M)
Ek(4M)
Talbot(3.66M)
Foligno(3.1M)
Soucy(2.75M)
Greenway(2.1M)
Hartman(1.7M)
Rossi/Boldy(925k)
Sturm(750K)
Kahkonen(750k)

leaves about 1.7M to fill out the rest of the roster. Obviously, there a few ways to shed some cap, and we'll probably lose a bit in the ED, but the contract situation is manageable. We just need to find a way to transfer some of our cap into a top 6 center(s). Planting some LTIR seeds this season would help immensely.

 

[MNNumbers]

Kaprizov pretty much has no comparables, so predicting his contract is a shot on the dark. I believe Russo said that he thinks Guerin would go in the 8s on an 8 year deal, so let's just assume the max and say he gets 8.5M.

Fiala after this season is going to have 2 seasons with 50-70 point paces. A decent comparable for him would be Nik Ehlers, who signed a 7 year deal 60 and 64 point seasons. He was at 6Mx7. Another good comparable is Timo Meier, who signed for 4 years at 6M after a 66 point, 30 goal campaign. Nylander signed for 6.9M for 6 years, which is more than he should've gotten, and is more than I'd be interested in giving Fiala at this point. The deal I'd be looking for is 6M x 5 years. If I'm a betting man, I think Fiala tries to get another big payday after this one and does something like 5.75x4 years. Let's say his cap hit is 6M.

Before Expansion:
Kaprizov(8.5M)
Spurgeon(7.57M)
Parise/Suter(7.53M)
Fiala/Zuccarello/Brodin/Dumba(6M)
Rask(4M)
Ek(4M)
Talbot(3.66M)
Foligno(3.1M)
Soucy(2.75M)
Greenway(2.1M)
Hartman(1.7M)
Rossi/Boldy(925k)
Sturm(750K)
Kahkonen(750k)

leaves about 1.7M to fill out the rest of the roster. Obviously, there a few ways to shed some cap, and we'll probably lose a bit in the ED, but the contract situation is manageable. We just need to find a way to transfer some of our cap into a top 6 center(s). Planting some LTIR seeds this season would help immensely.

What's your cap?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Well yeah but did you go through his game logs? You do realize that a minute is 60 seconds. In last nights game Dumba had 22 shifts. He had 23.07 minutes of ice time. 23x 60 seconds is 1380 seconds add in 42 seconds for his .07 and that would make 1422 seconds of ice time. Divide the 1422 seconds of ice time by the number of his shifts which was 22 and you have 64.63 per shift which is just too long. Dumba has regularly had the two minute shift because he can't get off the ice. The other top 4 really are no better and it could be a coaching issue. Its working for the most part now but it won't fly in a 7 game series. None of these guys are Bobby Orr.

I am absolutely floored by this new information.

Kaprizov pretty much has no comparables, so predicting his contract is a shot on the dark. I believe Russo said that he thinks Guerin would go in the 8s on an 8 year deal, so let's just assume the max and say he gets 8.5M.

Fiala after this season is going to have 2 seasons with 50-70 point paces. A decent comparable for him would be Nik Ehlers, who signed a 7 year deal 60 and 64 point seasons. He was at 6Mx7. Another good comparable is Timo Meier, who signed for 4 years at 6M after a 66 point, 30 goal campaign. Nylander signed for 6.9M for 6 years, which is more than he should've gotten, and is more than I'd be interested in giving Fiala at this point. The deal I'd be looking for is 6M x 5 years. If I'm a betting man, I think Fiala tries to get another big payday after this one and does something like 5.75x4 years. Let's say his cap hit is 6M.

Before Expansion:
Kaprizov(8.5M)
Spurgeon(7.57M)
Parise/Suter(7.53M)
Fiala/Zuccarello/Brodin/Dumba(6M)
Rask(4M)
Ek(4M)
Talbot(3.66M)
Foligno(3.1M)
Soucy(2.75M)
Greenway(2.1M)
Hartman(1.7M)
Rossi/Boldy(925k)
Sturm(750K)
Kahkonen(750k)

leaves about 1.7M to fill out the rest of the roster. Obviously, there a few ways to shed some cap, and we'll probably lose a bit in the ED, but the contract situation is manageable. We just need to find a way to transfer some of our cap into a top 6 center(s). Planting some LTIR seeds this season would help immensely.

Those Kaprizov, Fiala and Eriksson Ek numbers are very close to the ones I'm anticipating as well. Hoping to be a tad high on all them.

You're actually shorting yourself a little bit too, because Sturm and Kahkonen are actually only $725k and Boldy is in the mid $800k range. Probably closer to $2.5M in space.

 

[MNNumbers]

Those Kaprizov, Fiala and Eriksson Ek numbers are very close to the ones I'm anticipating as well. Hoping to be a tad high on all them.

You're actually shorting yourself a little bit too, because Sturm and Kahkonen are actually only $725k and Boldy is in the mid $800k range. Probably closer to $2.5M in space.

I'm getting a total cap hit of 79.7M with including 4M for Rask, and 12 forwards signed, and Kap (8), Fiala (6), Ek (4.5), and only 5 defensemen signed.

We'll lose someone in the ED, so that will clear space for one more contract at least (Hartman's contract would be worth 2 minimum guys, and his is the lowest contract). If Rask is a buyout, that saves 2.66M, which is very valuable.

What are the roster requirements? 23 players?