Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[StateofCelly]

My phone definitely just juked me out, meant to reply in another thread and it brought me back to quote an old message. My apologies

 

[nickschultzfan]

I think Detroit is bluffing with keeping Larkin. They definitely like him. But I don't believe the posters around here that is in untouchable. He he will be out of his prime before they are sniffing the playoffs again. And once they give him a big contract, his tradeable will go down. Right now, he is probably the most valuable he is ever going to be (even with the down year for the whole team).

If Guerin offered 3-4 significant assets to the Wings, I think they would change their tune. It would probably cost at least Boldy and Khovanov/Marat. Plus either Dumba or Soucy. And one of our firsts.

Could we pull it offer with both 1sts, Khovanov/Marat, Soucy, and then Beckman instead of Boldy (plus dumps)?

 

[MuckOG]

I don't see Guerin doing much at the deadline.

Agreed. He pretty much said as much.

 

[keppel146]

I think Detroit is bluffing with keeping Larkin. They definitely like him. But I don't believe the posters around here that is in untouchable. He he will be out of his prime before they are sniffing the playoffs again. And once they give him a big contract, his tradeable will go down. Right now, he is probably the most valuable he is ever going to be (even with the down year for the whole team).

If Guerin offered 3-4 significant assets to the Wings, I think they would change their tune. It would probably cost at least Boldy and Khovanov/Marat. Plus either Dumba or Soucy. And one of our firsts.

Could we pull it offer with both 1sts, Khovanov/Marat, Soucy, and then Beckman instead of Boldy (plus dumps)?

I’ve thought about that too. Larkin will be too old for Detroit’s future core. Let’s make it happen BG; I’d pay a premium to keep Boldy and Rossi.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Stay the course for the most part. Center needs to be addressed before next season. We’re trending in the right direction. We have a new identity as a team. Our best players out young, we have a great prospect pool and have been a good drafting team the past few years. Not interested in moving a boatload of futures.

 

[ctmagic]

I think Detroit is bluffing with keeping Larkin. They definitely like him. But I don't believe the posters around here that is in untouchable. He he will be out of his prime before they are sniffing the playoffs again. And once they give him a big contract, his tradeable will go down. Right now, he is probably the most valuable he is ever going to be (even with the down year for the whole team).

If Guerin offered 3-4 significant assets to the Wings, I think they would change their tune. It would probably cost at least Boldy and Khovanov/Marat. Plus either Dumba or Soucy. And one of our firsts.

Could we pull it offer with both 1sts, Khovanov/Marat, Soucy, and then Beckman instead of Boldy (plus dumps)?

You’d have to think at the very least, Larkin himself would like a change.

hed definitely be my #1 choice.

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

I think Detroit is bluffing with keeping Larkin. They definitely like him. But I don't believe the posters around here that is in untouchable. He he will be out of his prime before they are sniffing the playoffs again. And once they give him a big contract, his tradeable will go down. Right now, he is probably the most valuable he is ever going to be (even with the down year for the whole team).

If Guerin offered 3-4 significant assets to the Wings, I think they would change their tune. It would probably cost at least Boldy and Khovanov/Marat. Plus either Dumba or Soucy. And one of our firsts.

Could we pull it offer with both 1sts, Khovanov/Marat, Soucy, and then Beckman instead of Boldy (plus dumps)?

Why would Detroit want dumba or soucy?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I’d still like us to move Johansson, Bonino and Cole, but I doubt it happens.

 

[kegstandbyme]

Obviously I am a big Dumba fan but I am in agreement with most of you, the time to trade him is now. I don’t see us going 4-4 so it’s best to get something of value for Dumba. If we can rip off Fletcher in the process all the better. Florida, Philly, and Winnipeg seem like realistic landing spots. I trust Guerin, it’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds.

 

[MuckOG]

Couldn't we still trade Dumba at the entry draft?

Edit: Nevermind, I see the expansion draft is 2 days before the entry draft

 

[2Pair]

I don't see Guerin doing much at the deadline.

Haven't seen Guerin do much since he was hired

 

[ctmagic]

Why would Detroit want dumba or soucy?

they wouldn’t, would have to be picks prospects to get larkin

 

[DeagleJenkins]

If we are going after Larkin it’s probably closer to both firsts + Rossi + Marat. Doubt they take back anyone 22 * if we are saying Larkin will be too old for their next window how would dumba not also age out?

 

[nickschultzfan]

If we are going after Larkin it’s probably closer to both firsts + Rossi + Marat. Doubt they take back anyone 22 * if we are saying Larkin will be too old for their next window how would dumba not also age out?

Dmen last longer. Look at Spurgeon and Suter.

 

[TwiztedHeat]

Larkin would be such a damn stud here. I do wish he'd just stay in Detroit because I love hometown guys doing well at home. But if we could get him I'd bet it's something like '21 1st+'22 1st+Khusnutdinov/Rossi+Addison/O'Rourke type of thing. I'd think they'd wanna gamble on adding a 2nd first in both drafts and with how that '22 draft is shaping up, I think that pick is more valuable than either of the '21 picks.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Dmen last longer. Look at Spurgeon and Suter.

Be that as it may, a selling point of larkin being too old for their rebuild only to acquire dumba and/or soucy is just silly.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Detroit is going to keep Larkin.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Be that as it may, a selling point of larkin being too old for their rebuild only to acquire dumba and/or soucy is just silly.

And a bunch of young players and picks. Which is the actual point of a rebuild.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I’d still like us to move Johansson, Bonino and Cole, but I doubt it happens.

I'd love to move Johansson, bring up Boldy for his slot. Bonino is permanently replaced with Sturm. Cole with Addison. I'd like to also move Bjugstad, but the Wild don't have anyone in the stables to replace him.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Detroit is going to keep Larkin.

I think he is comparable to Kreider with the Ranger. They may keep him around for long term. But they will listen to serious offers.

 

[Spurgeon]

I know I’m in the minority, but I still think Granlund could be interesting to see back here at center if he’s signing for <$5M. Hell, maybe even try to poach him from Nashville this season to see if it could work (Wouldn’t give up much and would want to dump Rask back).

49.4 FO% and we already know what he can be capable of playing with scorers. I don’t think his 65+ point seasons were an abnormality that couldn’t be repeated with the right linemates (although those were with him on the wing).

 

[AKL]

As far as I can tell, here's the list of centers that have moved since the 2018-19 season. I've tried to only include guys that were considered NHLers at the time of the trade, so there are some bad players here but hopefully no obvious AHL tweeners.

I've bolded some of the more notable names (at least in terms of expectations), but there are others that ended up being good acquisitions as well (like Stephenson).

Zajac (UFA) - 3/21
Staal (UFA) - 3/21
Dubois (1 yr) - 1/21
Stepan (UFA) - 12/20
Stastny (UFA) - 10/20
Andersson (RFA) - 10/20
Bonino (1 yr) - 10/20
Domi (RFA) - 10/20
Staal (1 yr) - 9/20
----COVID----
Grant (UFA) - 2/20
Trocheck (2 yr) - 2/20
Pageau (UFA) - 2/20
Namestnikov (UFA) - 2/20
Eakin (UFA) - 2/20
Stephenson (RFA) - 12/19
Namestnikov (UFA) - 10/19
Anisimov (1 yr) - 7/19
Kadri (3 yr) - 7/19
Kerfoot (RFA) 7/19
Shaw (3 yr) - 6/19
Haula (1 yr) - 6/19
Soderberg (1 yr) - 6/19
Miller (4 yr) - 6/19
Hayes (UFA) - 3/19
Brassard (UFA) - 2/19
Hendricks (UFA) - 2/19
Weal (UFA) - 2/19
Hayes (UFA) - 2/19
Duchene (UFA) - 2/19
Coyle (1 yr) - 2/19
Spooner (1 yr) - 2/19
Brassard (UFA) - 2/19
Bjugstad (2 yr) - 2/19
Rask (3 yr) - 2/19
Grant (UFA) - 2/19
D Strome (1 yr) - 11/18
Schmaltz (RFA) - 11/18
R Strome (1 yr) - 11/18
Spooner (1 yr) - 11/18
O'Reilly (5 yr) - 7/18
Lindholm (RFA) - 6/18
Domi (RFA) - 6/18

Unsurprisingly it's mostly older rental guys and bottom-6'ers that are moved, but more notable centers do become available with some regularity. Covid's probably also a factor worth considering, because it hasn't been nice to the trade market.

So it's possible that there are no centers worth pursuing or that prices are too high, and that Guerin's most viable option is to draft/develop the center he needs. If that's the case his handling of his defensemen (which is directly related) makes almost no sense.

Bazeek already did it, but I'll toss out what I was thinking of as well:

Lindholm
Kadri
Schmaltz
Suzuki
Johansen
Duchene
D. Strome
R. Strome
Trocheck
Zibanejad
PLD
ROR
Schenn

Pretty sure all moved in the last 5 years. Chances are, similar type players will be moved over the next five.

And a fun fact: every team in our normal division has traded for a top 6 center, except for 1, since the lockout. Some did it twice. We are the 1.

Long lists of players that do nothing to prove that it's easy to trade for a top 6 center. This is what I said wouldn't be worth your time.

Pretty sure all moved in the last 5 years. Chances are, similar type players will be moved over the next five.

Next 5 years, not next 5 months. Pretty important distinction when everyone here is talking about urgency and getting a center to help the team now.

Top 6 centers are easy to get, well actually I'm just saying they do get moved once in a while. Gotta get a top 6 center yesterday or it's unacceptable, but chances are similar players will be moved in the next 5 years. Looking at top 6 centers and we're listing guys like Derek Grant, Andrew Shaw, Alex Kerfoot. Guerin should have done something by now, but we're going to include all centers traded before he was a GM here to hold it against him. I've lost count of how many times the goalposts have been moved in this discussion.

Let's make it simple. The top 6 centers on your lists that have been moved during Guerin's tenure were Dubois and Trochek. He was in on both. We don't know what his offer was for either, but we know we weren't equipped to win Dubois.

So he missed out on Trochek for whatever reasons we may never know. In two years here, you can maybe make the argument that he could have gotten Trochek. That's it.

 

[GuerinUp]

I know I’m in the minority, but I still think Granlund could be interesting to see back here at center if he’s signing for <$5M. Hell, maybe even try to poach him from Nashville this season to see if it could work (Wouldn’t give up much and would want to dump Rask back).

49.4 FO% and we already know what he can be capable of playing with scorers. I don’t think his 65+ point seasons were an abnormality that couldn’t be repeated with the right linemates (although those were with him on the wing).

 

[Spurgeon]

Buyout Parise
Lose Soucy in ED

Resign:
Kap $8M x 8
Fiala $6.5M x 6
Ek $4.25M x 4
Hartman $2.67M x 3

Sign:
Granlund $5M x 3
Menell (ELC)

Roughly $2M in space for extras.

If the cap doesn’t raise for the 22-23 season, there would be some problems with the Kahkonen and Greenway extensions, but those could be alleviated with Talbot, Foligno, and/or Dumba trades.

There is the problem of 4 RHD, so I’m not sure if that’d work, but it does allow us to keep the Top 4 around for at least 1 good season. You can replace Granlund for any other FA center too, I just kind of wanted to show that everyone can be re-signed to long extensions plus a FA center.

 

[Bazeek]

Long lists of players that do nothing to prove that it's easy to trade for a top 6 center. This is what I said wouldn't be worth your time.



Next 5 years, not next 5 months. Pretty important distinction when everyone here is talking about urgency and getting a center to help the team now.

Top 6 centers are easy to get, well actually I'm just saying they do get moved once in a while. Gotta get a top 6 center yesterday or it's unacceptable, but chances are similar players will be moved in the next 5 years. Looking at top 6 centers and we're listing guys like Derek Grant, Andrew Shaw, Alex Kerfoot. Guerin should have done something by now, but we're going to include all centers traded before he was a GM here to hold it against him. I've lost count of how many times the goalposts have been moved in this discussion.

Let's make it simple. The top 6 centers on your lists that have been moved during Guerin's tenure were Dubois and Trochek. He was in on both. We don't know what his offer was for either, but we know we weren't equipped to win Dubois.

So he missed out on Trochek for whatever reasons we may never know. In two years here, you can maybe make the argument that he could have gotten Trochek. That's it.

My only point in posting the list was to get a better idea of what the frequency for NHL center trades was over the course of a few years. It wasn't to point to this guy or that guy as a specific case where Guerin (or Fenton, or Fletcher) missed out.

And again: if there isn't a good market to acquire the player we need, fine. But Guerin's other moves don't indicate that he thinks that's the case, which is my real complaint. Since taking the job his largest decisions have been:

1.) Extending Spurgeon with a full NMC
2.) Trading Zucker for a 1st and Addison to make for Kaprizov
3.) Extending Brodin with a full NMC
4.) Choosing to hold onto Dumba with the Seattle expansion coming up
5.) Trading away Staal and replacing him with some mix of Johansson, Bonino and Bjugstad

I fully admit that I don't know what the market for centers really looks like, but I'd assume that Guerin does. If it's that bleak why not be more proactive with the other elephant in the room: the expansion draft? If his roster has a crippling weakness that isn't fixable in the short term, how can that not inform what he's been doing for the last year?