Confirmed with Link: Toronto signs Mitch Marner to 6 year extension [10.893M AAV]

[ZEBROA]

Closer than a lot of people give them credit for. Two years in a row they had a one-game difference between bowing out early and potentially making a run for it all, and arguably the biggest reason why they failed both times is now gone.

It is great that we got these guys on board, but it is not anyway near a guaranteed Stanley cup win or even stanley cup final during Matthews contract.

 

[Leafsdude7]

It is great that we got these guys on board, but it is not anyway near a guaranteed Stanley cup win or even stanley cup final during Matthews contract.

Nothing will ever be near guaranteeing a Cup. But having Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and, yes, Marner, makes them much closer to that possibility than even just having Tavares, Matthews and Nylander. And there's no one you could get, or even group of players you could get, that would fill in his cap hit and still bring what he will provide.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

not interested in trading the kids , if this turns **** then JT has to be the one to go

Why? Leafs should not have any loyalty to either Nylander or Marner, and if the trade makes the team better, you do it. They valued self over team (which is allowed but is not exactly the type of behaviour which will ensure your security on a team), why should Dubas value player over team? Especially when his job is to value team over all else?

There are not going to be many, if any trades, the Leafs could make involving Matthews or Tavares where we get better. There aren't going to be a ton for Marner or Nylander either, but there will be far more and the cap space goes a long way too. Plus it is always a lot easier to replace an elite/franchise winger than a franchise center.

 

[MattySnipes]

I should say for starters that while I do think that Marner's is by far the worst deal, there is a substantial advantage of getting that f'ing mess out of the way. If you look at how much of a strain it has been having on the fanbase there was little chance that this was not having an impact on the players at camp. For two years in a row they were going to have this massive spectacle and uncertainty as a black cloud hanging over everything - I think that takes a toll, and I think it causes additional wear at the start of a long season.

It's selfish when it happens. I can place a lot of the blame on the year before on management, as they seemed to just think they could wait it out with Nylander, but with Marner they had been aggressively bending over backwards to get this done and essentially had given the actual best offer to Marner months ago and all Marner was interested in was getting every single drop of blood out of them, so I can't blame management on this one. I hope the extremely crappy cap situation where they have essentially no flexibility doesn't remind the players of this all season long.

I am someone who thinks that when you give a player a - let's say - 5 year contract that you are not paying them for what they have done, but you are paying them for what you feel they will do over those 5 years. That's a tricky thing to do, and I feel that is what Dubas wants to do, but he is trying to do in a league that has always paid based on what players have done - and usually done based on raw numbers.

I don't want a GM paying for a team that hypothetically would have won last year, but instead paying for a team that will win this year.

Numbers are far from everything, but nothing drives me more nuts than hearing that someone who put up, say 85 points with two crappy linemates is worse than someone who put up, say 90 points with two great linemates. You could maybe say that latter line is worth 2M more than former line, but that player carrying that former line is probably worth a lot more than anyone on the latter line.

Years ago - starting in 2005-06 there was massive PP time. It was simply ridiculous. But the amount of PP was falling each year thereafter. So if you have a guy who put up great numbers the last two years, but was highly PP based and you sign him to a big contract for the next 6 years, then you are paying for a guy who puts up great numbers on the PP at a time when the PP is becoming less and less of the game.

This is why I am big fan of Matthews. He has shown that he can put up big numbers no matter what. You give him PP time he will put up big numbers. You give him crappy linemates at 5v5 he will put up big numbers. You give him even better linemates at 5v5 he will put up even bigger numbers.

For Nylander that is not the case, but his pay as the secondary figure on a great line is not bad (nor is it great).

For Marner, well I hope I am wrong, but I think people are going to be disappointed. I am not saying that he is going to bad, but I highly doubt he is going to look good enough to justify 4M more than Nylander. People will say that he will continue to naturally progress and he very well might. But it is interesting, when a prospect or player is not progressing we say "development is not linear" but when a player has been progressing well we change to a belief that it is linear. To me last year was a year in which everything that could have gone right for Marner did go right. Yes, he might get more PP next year - although his PP time per game was higher last year than the previous two years - so he might get less. I suspect that they are going to stack a PP unit and play it more because players like Matthews are going to demand it, but I feel it would be better for the team's success to run two different units evenly.

TL: DR - My view is mostly meh.

Great post. Not a 'meh' view at all.

 

[taurine330]

New number, 93, confirmed?

 

[MattySnipes]

New number, 93, confirmed?

No. It's always been 16 and will stay that way. He is not gonna disrespect Dougy like that. Dougy told him in 2016 that he can have it if he really wants. Marner said "I'll be going in a different direction, but I truly feel honoured that I had your blessing to wear 93."

You also have to remember, Lou was in charge then and he had that low number rule. So even if Marner wanted to wear 93 with Dougy's blessing, Lou wouldn't allow it.

 

[lovemyleafs]

Just glad its done.
We're finally ready to start the season.
Let this be the year boys! Raptors won a championship, now it's the Leafs turn!

 

[MapleLeafs77]

Here is how I see it:

Nylander - probably gonna be worth the contract and if not exceed his contract moving forward

Matthews - same as above but at least i understand as he is the franchise player and face of the team and best player and probably top 5 in the league

Marner - probably the worst contract of the three and definitely overpaid. Gonna be toughest for him to live up to it.

 

[Tak7]

Here is how I see it:

Nylander - probably gonna be worth the contract and if not exceed his contract moving forward

Matthews - same as above but at least i understand as he is the franchise player and face of the team and best player and probably top 5 in the league

Marner - probably the worst contract of the three and definitely overpaid. Gonna be toughest for him to live up to it.

And then 1 or 2 years from now another RFA is going to sign an even bigger contract, and we will all look at the Marner deal and think its great value for a (hopefully) consistent 80-90 point guy

 

[ZEBROA]

Nothing will ever be near guaranteeing a Cup. But having Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and, yes, Marner, makes them much closer to that possibility than even just having Tavares, Matthews and Nylander. And there's no one you could get, or even group of players you could get, that would fill in his cap hit and still bring what he will provide.

I think Marner is overrated and i think u could get some underrated players who would help the team moore. But it would be a gamble. We know what we got.. sort of, so why risk anything.

Happy we will have two first lines from start. Think they all will have a crazy season.

 

[Coach]

Where is the incompetence? I still feel like the NHL salary cap landscape is still figuring things out.

You look at other sports...

The Clippers have 49% of their cap on two players (20% of their roster)
The Patriots have approximately 50 of their cap hit on 20% of their roster....

Leafs cap structure is just following that of other sports at this point.

Sounds good just need to figure out how to keep your stars playing 90% of the game like the example sports you listed do.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Why? Leafs should not have any loyalty to either Nylander or Marner, and if the trade makes the team better, you do it. They valued self over team (which is allowed but is not exactly the type of behaviour which will ensure your security on a team), why should Dubas value player over team? Especially when his job is to value team over all else?

There are not going to be many, if any trades, the Leafs could make involving Matthews or Tavares where we get better. There aren't going to be a ton for Marner or Nylander either, but there will be far more and the cap space goes a long way too. Plus it is always a lot easier to replace an elite/franchise winger than a franchise center.

To be very fair, I do see Marner's point.
Crosby and Malkin signed for the same after ELC.
Getzlaf and Perry signed for the same after ELC.
Toews and Kane signed for the same after ELC.

Why would Marner agree to sign for less than Matthews?

But to be clear, I don't like Marner's contract, nor do I like Matthews contract. I like Nylander's contract though. 6.9 mill for a player of his caliber his fantastic.

 

[Kiwi]

And then 1 or 2 years from now another RFA is going to sign an even bigger contract, and we will all look at the Marner deal and think its great value for a (hopefully) consistent 80-90 point guy

That's a very optimistic view

Unless the cap spikes by the time this deal starts looking like a bargain and we can spend money around the periphery of the core he's going to need a new contract again

I hate this deal with a passion but he's tied up now and I get to watch him in a Leafs Jersey for the next 6 years so I'll accept it for what it is and move on

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Nylander contract - steal
Matthews contract - fair
Marner contract - ugly

 

[Sypher04]

I think it's funny that people point to the list of top paid NHL players going into the season and the fact that 3 of them are Maple Leafs as if that's supposed to be hugely damning...
It's not a coincidence that every name on that list, save for McDavid, signed those deals in the last 15 or 16 months.
Our guys place partly because Matthews got slightly overpaid and Marner got well overpaid, but this ultimately was more to do with us just happening to have elite level talent due now that other teams largely didn't. Those teams will get their turn (and some soon) and people will realize this is the new reality of the market.

Also between the US TV deal, Seattle Expansion and betting coming there is great potential of pretty substantial cap growth over the next 3-4 years. I believe this is largely why so many RFAs have been really pushing for shorter term. That's a lot of potential that's hard to project.

 

[hockeyes]

Yikes. Time to earn that money kids, maybe win at least 1 round before you start making demands for your next one

 

[hfman]

If you look at how much of a strain it has been having on the fanbase there was little chance that this was not having an impact on the players at camp.

then those fans are living a pretty good existence, especially if they consider a hockey player's contract status enough to cause a strain in their lives lol

I have REAL strains in my life, and none of them involve a rich hockey player's contract status LOL

I'll trade my life with anyone who was losing sleep over that Marner holdout.........

 

[biotk]

then those fans are living a pretty good existence, especially if they consider a hockey player's contract status enough to cause a strain in their lives lol

I have REAL strains in my life, and none of them involve a rich hockey player's contract status LOL

I'll trade my life with anyone who was losing sleep over the Marner holdout.......

Some people care about hockey. It is probably why they post here.

 

[Boutette]

Toronto now has 4 vastly over paid forwards. Gonna be cool to watch them get sunk in the first round. Again.

Most teams in the league carry a host of overpaid players. even your's.

 

[Boutette]

Nylander contract - steal
Matthews contract - fair
Marner contract - ugly

No.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

And then 1 or 2 years from now another RFA is going to sign an even bigger contract, and we will all look at the Marner deal and think its great value for a (hopefully) consistent 80-90 point guy

Exactly. There is no doubt in my mind in 2 years we will see this contract as being pretty fair.

 

[Tak7]

You can be happy that Marner signed, while being unhappy about the deal itself.

You can be a fan of Dubas, while being unhappy at the way he's handled these negotiations.

That's where I find myself.

One thing that really disappoints me, is that Dubas couldn't find a way to leverage all the great things about playing in Toronto, into any sort of cap savings.

Whether it's:

1. Playing on a highly, highly skilled team
2. Center of the hockey universe
3. Ability to pay heavily front-loaded contracts you can't get anywhere else in the league.
4. One of the best cities in the world, where winning the cup would mean so much more than any other hockey market
5. Insane supplemental earnings potential through marketing and sponsorship opportunities.

It's a shame that Dubas wasn't able to utilize any of these into leveraging some cap savings in the negotiations with the 3 kids.

Ultimately though, if you are going to overpay, then do it with your young elite star players who can grow into massive contracts; you'd much rather have this money tied into Marner, than split between Zaitsev et al for several years, because you know there's the possibility the player elevates himself into the deal.

Really glad all of them have signed, but I don't think for a second Dubas thought 12 months ago, that these were what the 3 contracts would look like. He's been rinsed into handing out 3 very player-friendly deals, and the big concern now will have to be if he has enough cap space left over to finesse the rest of the roster - especially beyond this year, when the defense will need to be rebuilt entirely from scratch.

 

[TheBigThree]

How are we going to resign andersen and Reilly. We're f***ed. Thx dubas

 

[Goleafsgo95]

There is no question that Marner, Matthews and Nylander were overpaid; not that their contracts won't look good in the future. But had these players been signed for market value or less, the Leafs would be in a much more prosperous situation. My view is that the Leafs went from a potential dynasty to being a team that will contend for years on end but will be lucky to win a cup. It's difficult to win in this league and their cap situation isn't optimal. The overpayments removed a large portion of wiggle room that will be much needed to resign the likes of Rielly, Barrie, and Andersen. Continuity in this lineup will be hard to come by as they will need to ship a significant player or two out every year; drafting and developing is more important than ever now.

No one should hold anything against Marner; he got market value for the cap structure of this team. It was the team's decision to pay their players top dollar. In hindsight, they should have let Nylander sit last season. Not that I wasn't pushing for them to "get it done" back then, but that would have drawn a hard line in the sand. NHL players are underpaid in comparison to other leagues, but it is indeed an unfortunate set of circumstances that led to the Leafs overpaying their core.

However, I'm extremely excited for this year and think we have as good a chance as anyone to win the cup.

 

[Cor]

How are we going to resign andersen and Reilly. We're ****ed. Thx dubas

A lot can happen in 2 or 3 years.

Try not to lose sleep