Player Discussion Tom Wilson - Part 2

[RandyHolt]

I figured this thread needed Willy's fight card, since all he can do is fight duh

Tom Wilson Fights

 

[g00n]

I ask because not the case in recent years as noted.

Caps are 28th in the league in PP/PK time differential this year.

Going back to 2014-15 through last season, when ranking all yearly results for this stat, the Caps have had the 113th, 109th, 104th, and 86th ranked differentials. IOW, their PP/PK time differential has been consistently among the worst in the league.

Just a good power play that scores quickly and PK that's effective? Maybe, maybe not.

Looking at PP opportunities in that same span, they've had seasons ranking 92nd, 75th, 63rd, and 54th out of 121 possible. Yet times shorthanded have been 24th most, 27th most, 35th most, and 58th most out of that same pool of 121 "seasons".

By year, league rank:

2014-15: 23rd in PP opps, 10th most in times shorthanded
2015-16: 19th in PP opps, 16th most in times shorthanded
2016-17: 13th in PP opps, 5th most in times shorthanded
2017-18: 21st in PP opss, 7th most in times shorthanded (Cup Year)

And these are all Barry Trotz years, where they were a playoff team (3 Division titles, one 2nd place, one Cup) focusing on defense and trying to stay out of the box. The Cup year stats are ridiculous.

 

[Ms Maggie]

Caps are 28th in the league in PP/PK time differential this year.

Going back to 2014-15 through last season, when ranking all yearly results for this stat, the Caps have had the 113th, 109th, 104th, and 86th ranked differentials. IOW, their PP/PK time differential has been consistently among the worst in the league.

Just a good power play that scores quickly and PK that's effective? Maybe, maybe not.

Looking at PP opportunities in that same span, they've had seasons ranking 92nd, 75th, 63rd, and 54th out of 121 possible. Yet times shorthanded have been 24th most, 27th most, 35th most, and 58th most out of that same pool of 121 "seasons".

By year, league rank:

2014-15: 23rd in PP opps, 10th most in times shorthanded
2015-16: 19th in PP opps, 16th most in times shorthanded
2016-17: 13th in PP opps, 5th most in times shorthanded
2017-18: 21st in PP opss, 7th most in times shorthanded (Cup Year)

And these are all Barry Trotz years, where they were a playoff team (3 Division titles, one 2nd place, one Cup) focusing on defense and trying to stay out of the box. The Cup year stats are ridiculous.

"Caps are 28th in the league in PP/PK time differential this year."
https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/team-...sort=9&time=0&pos=0&team=1&qual=1&sortOrder=0

Maybe I'm confused?

 

[g00n]

"Caps are 28th in the league in PP/PK time differential this year."
https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/team-...sort=9&time=0&pos=0&team=1&qual=1&sortOrder=0

Maybe I'm confused?

NHL.com

 

[g00n]

The yearly PP Opp and Times Shorthanded stats are also from NHL.com

 

[maacoshark]

NHL.com

View attachment 171965

The time differential doesnt tell you the difference in pp chances compared to how many times we have been on the pk.

 

[Ms Maggie]

NHL.com

View attachment 171965

Sorry, I see now. The chart I was looking at was penalty minutes called, not powerplay minutes.

 

[g00n]

The time differential doesnt tell you the difference in pp chances compared to how many times we have been on the pk.

Look 4 posts above yours.

 

[maacoshark]

Look 4 posts above yours.

Ya OK.

 

[txpd]

time diff. Caps have the best power play in the league since Trotz. Game management. The league doesn't want the Caps killing games with PPGs

 

[g00n]

Hahahahaaaa

Speculation: - Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXI

(78 games played last year, 14 goals. Sad nobody took the bet.)

 

[Silky mitts]

Hahahahaaaa

Speculation: - Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXI

(78 games played last year, 14 goals. Sad nobody took the bet.)

Were you to have offered that bet after he signed the deal but before he got suspended for this year and next what would you have set the line as?

 

[hockeykicker]

Hahahahaaaa

Speculation: - Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXI

(78 games played last year, 14 goals. Sad nobody took the bet.)

Lol how did you even remember that?

 

[Holtbyisms]

I feel like Willy style is turning into a modern day(better skating/faster) Todd Bertuzzi and I'm f***ing pumped.

 

[g00n]

Lol how did you even remember that?

I didn't need anyone to take the bet to still believe in the projection.

Credit to a few others (Abro and CCR mostly) who were also on the Big Willy Express.

 

[txpd]

I didn't need anyone to take the bet to still believe in the projection.

Credit to a few others (Abro and CCR mostly) who were also on the Big Willy Express.

Hey...you left me out pal

 

[txpd]

I feel like Willy style is turning into a modern day(better skating/faster) Todd Bertuzzi and I'm ****ing pumped.

Wilson is already better than Bertuzzi ever was.

 

[g00n]

Were you to have offered that bet after he signed the deal but before he got suspended for this year and next what would you have set the line as?

I offered a pretty vociferous defense of Wilson's contract and upward trend in his signing thread. One such post of many:

Confirmed with Link: - Tom Wilson Re-signs 6 years, $5.17 AAV

My sense all along for Wilson has been some variation of double digit goal scorer who could have a ceiling of high-teen-low-twenties goals a few years, depending on games played/lines/PP/injuries/suspensions/etc. There are probably posts to that effect but I don't have time/inclination to dig them up (if they still exist).

So I would've expected better numbers this season but not sure by how much. You can't keep doubling your output or even increasing points every single year. I don't think I would've felt the need to make a bet since the harder point to prove was already off the table (can Wilson do more than punch faces).

Overall, passing last year's numbers despite the suspension would be a success, imo.

 

[g00n]

Hey...you left me out pal

Ok sorry, was just going off of some names I saw at a glance on the page from that thread.

 

[txpd]

Ok sorry, was just going off of some names I saw at a glance on the page from that thread.

Just playing. I do remember getting a lot of grief for defending his roster spot against him being sent back to junior and then the AHL. I remember Pierre MaGuire during a Caps game in the pre Willy is good era, saying that he had all the tools to be a star and all the eyes that rolled over that.

I admit I didn't see a 40 goal scorer here.

 

[Chimaera]

I mean, he had hands in juniors, especially his last season. But that doesn't always translate to the NHL. He has to be given credit, as he's worked on his game. A lot.

I don't think anyone projected a 35-40 goal pace.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

"This site usually overreacts to contracts but holy **** this is one of the worst ever."

From the first of two main boards threads about the Wilson contract.

 

[kicksavedave]

He's currently on a 46 goal pace projected over 82 games, even with his slowdown from his gpg start this year.

Outperforming that contract? Maybe.

 

[kicksavedave]

"This site usually overreacts to contracts but holy **** this is one of the worst ever."

From the first of two main boards threads about the Wilson contract.

Just looking back at that contract negotiation with GMBM, the things said publicly, BMacs desire for long term.... My faith in GMBM to steer this ship clear of any troubled waters for the next 10 years is confirmed.

There is no player in the entire NHL at $5.17 that I'd rather have locked up long term.

 

[twabby]

What has gotten into Tom Wilson?

$5.17M for this level of production (and incredibly good underlying numbers) is well-worth it. Happy to be wrong so far, though I do remember saying I would be open-minded about the contract even if I disagreed with it at the time it was signed!