Couple of my thoughts on the trade :
- Trade : I think it’s close to fair value. We’ll be able to judge better once we see what other players traded this year get back. Past value of players traded are a good indication but does not set the price all the time because each year the situation of the teams are different. Could we have gotten better return if they waited ? Probably, but it wouldn’t have been by much.
- Toffoli : Surprised that he was the first one to go. I would have kept him till next year to keep veteran presence on the team and some scoring threat (don’t want all the pressure on the kids). I guess that by trading him now you take any risk of injuries or regression which could lessen his value. Looking at his comments, he wasn’t sure he wanted to be a rebuilding team (makes sense since he signed here after the kids performances in the bubble), so as far as we know he could have let his agent know that he wanted to go elsewhere.
- 1st Round Pick : Finally, after so many years we get a second first round pick. People are crying for Pelletier And Zary but they forget that both those players were drafted 26th and 24th.
Habs could easily end up with a guy with as much potential, produces the same or just becomes flat out better than any of those guys in the NHL. We will have to wait a few years to see what we get out of it, but what if it’s a home run ? Also gives a chance to the management to pick a player that fits in their vision.
- Heinemann : People are dismissing this kid so quickly. It doesn’t matter if we, the Calgary fans or the media thinks he was the 10th best prospect, the only thing that matters is where the Habs rank him. For all we know, Flames had him in their top 5 prospects but they had to give to get. It’s also probable that some of their prospects were intouchable as they may lose Gaudreau and maybe Tkachuk (also Monahan who isn’t the player he used to be) so they needed to keep some.
I had Heinemann closer to 5th than 10th in their prospects pool. Yes he might not be a top 6 player in the end, but this kid has so much tools that he will eventually play in the NHL. Big winger, great skater, good at forechecking, good wrist shot and more than decent hands.
His best attribute is playing the game at high pace, which was something Hughes and Gorton put lot of accent on in their press conference.
People tend to forget that players with high motors can exceed their ceiling because of all the work they put in.
Even if he tops out as a 3rd line scoring winger, you need players like him in the line up and in your prospect pool (which is not so great when you look at the forwards group). I’ll gladly take a third line scoring winger on his ELC.
We could have gotten as 2nd round pick, but Heinemann is better than that and closer to the NHL, which makes him more valuable. They probably got Rockstrom opinion on him, which could be seen as a bad thing considering our record drafting out of Sweden.
- 5th round pick 2024 : The more assets that we control the better. Picks probably end up not having any impact, but just last year the Habs drafted Joshua Roy in the fifth round pick. They also drafted Farrell, Dobes and Dichow in the 4th-5th round. Those guys might not play in the NHL but it’s definitely an interesting gamble to take as they all show some potential.
Pick can also be used to move up/move down at the draft, traded for an equal pick the year later or even be used to get some depth through the line up.
- Tyler Pitlick : Cap dump that fills a roster spot. Will be important to have some of these guys as other trades will surely happen. He will be gone at the end of the season. Not much to say there.
- Cap space : Trading Toffoli gives the team some cap room which is always good to have and might also help at the trade deadline. Habs might want to help a team retain some salaries or take some contract that might bring some extra assets along the line.
- Top 10 protection : Unless there’s a big injury or catastrophic second half, Calgary will most likely be in the playoff, but this can only be good for the habs. If they somehow miss the playoffs and end up top 10, they get a pick that should be better (with the uncertainty of Gaudreau staying) and an extra 4th round pick.
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Overall, it’s a far trade for both teams. We won’t know much till a few years, but if their assessment of Heinemann is right and that they hit on that 1st round pick it will be a great trade for the team. I wanted a bit more, but in the end the difference wouldn’t have been that big, I’m satisfied with the return they got.
The way I see it, Habs could end up with 3 1st round pick this year and 3/2 next year with some prospects close to the NHL (which should speed up the process).