Tribute Timothy Liljegren Discussion

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

He only played 11 games at an average of 10 mins per game. Dont think that sample size is nearly large enough to use a highly regressed based stat like xGF%.

He definitely didnt have the best showings but with how little he played the only real way to evaluate his NHL play is with the eye test.

Any sample size is big enough to evaluate his performance. It's not like I'm saying because of that he can never be good in the future

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Any sample size is big enough to evaluate his performance. It's not like I'm saying because of that he can never be good in the future

I'm a little confused about your first part but I do know your not saying he cant improve. Just that he had a really bad first showing in the NHL which is pretty true. I dont think using xGF% as a method to prove that makes sense when he only played for like 110 minutes total.

 

[rent free]

Dude was a dud when he was up. We really need some quality defenders up in here.

 

[stickty111]

Dude was a dud when he was up. We really need some quality defenders up in here.

Don't agree with dud.

 

[tmlfan98]

Tim was pretty bad in limited NHL time, but he'll be 21 at the start of next season, so there's still a lot of room to grow. Can't give up on young dmen too early.

 

[ACC1224]

Dude was a dud when he was up. We really need some quality defenders up in here.

Dud is a little strong but he certainly showed he still has a little ways to go.

 

[biotk]

I think part of the reason that the leafs are having to play their young defenders such limited usage rather than keeping them in the AHL is because they need their ELC as the cap is so tight now.

I don't think this was true. The Leafs' picked up several league minimum D during the summer (ie Harpur, Schmaltz etc) specifically so that they could keep Liljegren and Sandin in the minors. That is what Dubas said at that the time. Those are good candidates for sheltered, low-minute D. Sandin and Liljegren were not.

And 900K ELC Ds on the third pairing are not good deal. 900K ELC Ds in the top-4 are a great deal.

Also don't think using a top 5 pick like Rielly is the best example as top 5 picks usually hit the NHL at an earlier age and play more time. Same goes for guys like Hughes, Makar, Dahlin etc. Just a different tier of defenders to Sandin and Lily.

Age isn't really the most important factor here. The reason I used Gardiner, Rielly and Dermott is because those really the only D under the age of 22 that the team has brought into the NHL in decade. The case would have been better for Rielly getting low minutes in the NHL at 19 because the Leafs couldn't send him to the AHL. Both Lilly and Sandin could have spent the entire year in the AHL. It was not like either were simply too good to play in the AHL. I watched them both play a number of games in the AHL this season, and sometimes they looked really good, but on the other hand as I wrote at the time for one two game stretch I attended in either late November or early December, the two were possibly the worst two D on the ice those two games - for either team.

So they could have kept them out of the NHL until they were ready to fill a major role and when the team was ready to do it right. Duncan Keith was 22 (with 154 regular season AHL games) before he played his first game in the NHL - and was Chicago' #1 instantly. Sandin has 65 regular season AHL games and Liljegren 127.

On the other side of things McAvoy was 14OA. Started playing in the NHL - in the playoffs - at a younger age than either Rielly or Sandin - and averaged more than 26 minutes a night during those playoffs. Jokiharju was taken 29th OA - started playing in the NHL at a younger age than either Rielly or Sandin - averaged more than 20 minutes a game over his first 11 games.

But it is also not just about ice-time - it is also about who they are playing with - as you also mention.

The leafs havent ever had a proper partner for Rielly (or even Gardiner for that matter) let alone for any of the young guys coming through. This is really all due to the cap constraints and it will be even more difficult to bring in proper partner for Lily and Sandin. I honestly think they will be playing together on the bottom pairing next year.

Hainsey was a good partner for Rielly - yes, towards the end he couldn't handle the minutes, but he still was a very good teaching and calming presence - and he would have been a very good partner for either Liljegren or Sandin on the third pairing this season. There were other possibilities that the Leafs' could have brought in during the season (Dillon, Del Zotto, etc) - cheap, experienced, physical and defensively sound D, but they opted not too.

Both the D I mentioned were left-handed, but with Rielly and Muzzin under contract for years to come the Leafs need to either shift Sandin (or Rielly, or Muzzin) to the right side or trade Sandin (or Rielly or Muzzin) within the next year to 18 months to a team that will not block his movement into the top-4.

Yes, the cap situation that management as well as their star players have put the team in is a major problem, but the team also seems to have this bizarre need to hold on to a couple dozen NHL capable wingers while they don't have any decent D depth.

If Lilly and Sandin play most of their minutes together on the 3rd pairing next year it will be a tragedy for their development. Not only because they shouldn't be playing together, but because over the last several years Toronto plays their 3rd pairing fewer minutes and more sheltered minutes than almost any other team. There is no benefit to drafting good D if you are not going to develop them properly. I don't think that there is an easy to work around this as I assume there is almost no circumstance in which one of their prohibitively expensive contracts is getting traded. Personally, if I ran the team I would trading Kapanen, Kerfoot, Johnsson and at least one of Dermott or Holl in the hopes of freeing up cap space and getting one of the D the team was rumoured to be after (Manson, Risto etc).

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don't think this was true. The Leafs' picked up several league minimum D during the summer (ie Harpur, Schmaltz etc) specifically so that they could keep Liljegren and Sandin in the minors. That is what Dubas said at that the time. Those are good candidates for sheltered, low-minute D. Sandin and Liljegren were not.

And 900K ELC Ds on the third pairing are not good deal. 900K ELC Ds in the top-4 are a great deal.



Age isn't really the most important factor here. The reason I used Gardiner, Rielly and Dermott is because those really the only D under the age of 22 that the team has brought into the NHL in decade. The case would have been better for Rielly getting low minutes in the NHL at 19 because the Leafs couldn't send him to the AHL. Both Lilly and Sandin could have spent the entire year in the AHL. It was not like either were simply too good to play in the AHL. I watched them both play a number of games in the AHL this season, and sometimes they looked really good, but on the other hand as I wrote at the time for one two game stretch I attended in either late November or early December, the two were possibly the worst two D on the ice those two games - for either team.

So they could have kept them out of the NHL until they were ready to fill a major role and when the team was ready to do it right. Duncan Keith was 22 (with 154 regular season AHL games) before he played his first game in the NHL - and was Chicago' #1 instantly. Sandin has 65 regular season AHL games and Liljegren 127.

On the other side of things McAvoy was 14OA. Started playing in the NHL - in the playoffs - at a younger age than either Rielly or Sandin - and averaged more than 26 minutes a night during those playoffs. Jokiharju was taken 29th OA - started playing in the NHL at a younger age than either Rielly or Sandin - averaged more than 20 minutes a game over his first 11 games.

But it is also not just about ice-time - it is also about who they are playing with - as you also mention.



Hainsey was a good partner for Rielly - yes, towards the end he couldn't handle the minutes, but he still was a very good teaching and calming presence - and he would have been a very good partner for either Liljegren or Sandin on the third pairing this season. There were other possibilities that the Leafs' could have brought in during the season (Dillon, Del Zotto, etc) - cheap, experienced, physical and defensively sound D, but they opted not too.

Both the D I mentioned were left-handed, but with Rielly and Muzzin under contract for years to come the Leafs need to either shift Sandin (or Rielly, or Muzzin) to the right side or trade Sandin (or Rielly or Muzzin) within the next year to 18 months to a team that will not block his movement into the top-4.

Yes, the cap situation that management as well as their star players have put the team in is a major problem, but the team also seems to have this bizarre need to hold on to a couple dozen NHL capable wingers while they don't have any decent D depth.

If Lilly and Sandin play most of their minutes together on the 3rd pairing next year it will be a tragedy for their development. Not only because they shouldn't be playing together, but because over the last several years Toronto plays their 3rd pairing fewer minutes and more sheltered minutes than almost any other team. There is no benefit to drafting good D if you are not going to develop them properly. I don't think that there is an easy to work around this as I assume there is almost no circumstance in which one of their prohibitively expensive contracts is getting traded. Personally, if I ran the team I would trading Kapanen, Kerfoot, Johnsson and at least one of Dermott or Holl in the hopes of freeing up cap space and getting one of the D the team was rumoured to be after (Manson, Risto etc).

900k on the bottom pairing was a necessity this past year so while not a great deal it was still necessary. I think management thought that Sandin/Lily would make a more positive impact on the team even if just for 10 mins of ice time compared to Harpur, Schmaltz etc which I would tend to agree with. If this decision was good for their development is definitely a different matter. I personally prefer letting them dominant in the AHL with top pairing minutes/PK/PP time.

Ya some of the Marlies stuff I saw was similar. They could either be by far the best players on the ice or have an off game whereby they are giving up the puck like crazy. Granted I didnt see many games.

I feel like guys like McAvoy and Jokiharj hit the ground running and so there ice time was likely drastically increased. Sandin had a pretty good start with some good PP production but was never going to bump Muzzin or Rielly out of their spots. Lily had a pretty bad start in general and so I didnt expect him to have his ice time increased.

I agree with Hainsey being a good partner for Rielly but that was only for like a 2 years and he was well past his prime. Still the best and most appropriate partner Rielly has had which isnt a good thing. I would have considered bringing him back.

I really dont think Dubas was planning on re-signing Muzzin but his hand was forced due to Rielly less than stellar year and Muzzin being so good. Sandin will likely suffer as a result unless he or Rielly can shift over to the right side as you mentioned.

I think we may see Lily start in the AHL with a bottom pairing of Sandin and Ceci. Honestly fine with Ceci on the third pairing with a bunch of PK time if paid accordingly.

I wouldn't move Holl as the leafs right side is thin enough but I have been a fan of possibly moving AJ/Kap + Dermott++ and go for a big fish RHD. If Dermott, Rielly or Sandin can play the right effectively that will change things however.

 

[stickty111]

Leafs prospect Liljegren talks self-isolation in Sweden, reflects on NHL debut
Some points.
He felt the NHL stint went well but feels he can be a lot better. I agree with this. The eye test supported him. The advanced numbers didn't.
He said that he focused on playing a low risk game.
Masters mentioned about his comment earlier in the season that he gets down on himself easily. Lilly said he has been working on it. He works with someone to help him in that area.
He mentioned Muzzin as someone he really noticed who talks a lot. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being like a mentor to guys like Sandin and Lilly.
Goal is stay up with the big team the whole season from the start.
He's balancing on what the Leafs told him to do during the stoppage, and what is being done in Sweden. The measures in Sweden are more relaxed right now then in other places.
Had a lot of praise for Sandin's season.

 

[stickty111]

Lilly highlights from this season. He showed great playmaking, and also getting his shot through, which is one of the biggest improvements along with defensively ofcourse since his rookie season

 

[ponder]

Dud is ... more than a little strong. He’s 20 years old, and he looked pretty close to NHL ready, just not quite there yet. Had a very good season in the AHL too, especially for a 20 year old.

I certainly don’t think he’s a lock to make the team next year, but he’s got a good shot. He wasn’t far off this year. If he works hard in the offseason, improves decently, and gets more confident, he could make the team out of camp.

I’m not as high on Lily as some, I do think he processes the game at pretty average speed, and thus don’t think he’s likely to become a top pairing dman. But I think he’s very likely to be an NHLer, and do think he has 2nd pair upside. He’s got a terrific skill set and a solid build, I can see him becoming more-or-less a slightly poor man’s Matt Dumba.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

I agree it makes sense with RHD being a minority position (which makes no sense to me since most right handed people should shoot right but it is what it is) that cups are won without them but I think that is out of necessity and is not ideal.

Personally I don't care who is in what spot so long as it yields the best results but I think it is perfectly normal to express our depth chart by natural position over projected reality. I mean I can write Timmy in the top pair all I like but I'm not sure Keefe is going to listen to me

Your dominate hand correlates to your ability to handle the puck. Something like 70% of hockey players shoot left because having your right (dominate) hand at the top of the stick allows for better control.

 

[Antropovsky]

Your dominate hand correlates to your ability to handle the puck. Something like 70% of hockey players shoot left because having your right (dominate) hand at the top of the stick allows for better control.

Im right handed and shoot right.... interestinf to think that if I played hockey as a kid, i would have had an advantage over others.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Your dominate hand correlates to your ability to handle the puck. Something like 70% of hockey players shoot left because having your right (dominate) hand at the top of the stick allows for better control.

You control/handle the puck with your lower hand...

 

[ACC1224]

You control/handle the puck with your lower hand...

Yep that’s why most golf right handed. Strong hand is the bottom hand.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Yep that’s why most golf right handed. Strong hand is the bottom hand.

Crazy but 100% true. My dad and I and 2 boys all shoot left in hockey and golf right. I thought it was weird. I can hit golf ball either way but I am much straighter hitting from right handed swing.

 

[BlueBaron]

Your dominate hand correlates to your ability to handle the puck. Something like 70% of hockey players shoot left because having your right (dominate) hand at the top of the stick allows for better control.

Interesting but as someone who is right handed it doesn't feel right to me. I'm right handed and a right handed shot. Maybe they would have changed that had I played more organized hockey.

 

[ACC1224]

Crazy but 100% true. My dad and I and 2 boys all shoot left in hockey and golf right. I thought it was weird. I can hit golf ball either way but I am much straighter hitting from right handed swing.

I’m right handed in baseball, hockey and golf. My miss in golf is left if I let my right hand take over too much.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I’m right handed in baseball, hockey and golf. My miss in golf is left if I let my right hand take over too much.

Interesting but as someone who is right handed it doesn't feel right to me. I'm right handed and a right handed shot. Maybe they would have changed that had I played more organized hockey.

I know this sounds crazy but i do think that maybe it is what stick your dad gives you to start. He writes with his right hand but plays hockey left. So I got a left handed stick and never changed. and I did same thing for my 2 boys when they started at 4.

 

[Legion34]

Interesting but as someone who is right handed it doesn't feel right to me. I'm right handed and a right handed shot. Maybe they would have changed that had I played more organized hockey.

it’s not so much your hand as it is your body. I don’t think of it as “right shot” it’s what foot you put first. Your body uses the turning momentum and how you naturally blade.

it’s mostly what sport you start first.

When you throw a baseball if you are right handed you throw with your right. Left foot first for power. You catch with your left. Now you are left foot first and bat with your right.

same with boxing soccer etc. Plant with left. Right side power.

so many Americans learn baseball football etc first. So at that point they learn to shoot right. Because they are already used to that movement. It’s not so much the hands as the way you turn your body. If you learned other sports first/better. It makes more sense for you probably

canadians who learn hockey carry the stick with your top hand as a kid. the stick goes to the ground so your learn to shoot left. So a lot bat/golf left.

some sports are like that. Wrestling you have strong leg first. Boxing is backwards So you watch a lot of UFC and many wrestlers can’t strike the same because they use their dominant wrestling leg. So right handed people put their right leg first and box left.

I’m left handed and learned hockey first. So I shoot right. But that means I play baseball right handed. I throw right/catch left. Like Curtis joseph used to turn his stick to play the puck

 

[Skin Tape Session]

I'm right handed , kick with my right but I've always shot left, swung left in baseball and golf. I like my strong hand on the top of the stick, bottom of the bat. I just hate shooting right handed, it feels weird to me. I never understood using your strong hand in the middle of the stick.

 

[BlueBaron]

it’s not so much your hand as it is your body. I don’t think of it as “right shot” it’s what foot you put first. Your body uses the turning momentum and how you naturally blade.

it’s mostly what sport you start first.

When you throw a baseball if you are right handed you throw with your right. Left foot first for power. You catch with your left. Now you are left foot first and bat with your right.

same with boxing soccer etc. Plant with left. Right side power.

so many Americans learn baseball football etc first. So at that point they learn to shoot right. Because they are already used to that movement. It’s not so much the hands as the way you turn your body. If you learned other sports first/better. It makes more sense for you probably

canadians who learn hockey carry the stick with your top hand as a kid. the stick goes to the ground so your learn to shoot left. So a lot bat/golf left.

some sports are like that. Wrestling you have strong leg first. Boxing is backwards So you watch a lot of UFC and many wrestlers can’t strike the same because they use their dominant wrestling leg. So right handed people put their right leg first and box left.

I’m left handed and learned hockey first. So I shoot right. But that means I play baseball right handed. I throw right/catch left. Like Curtis joseph used to turn his stick to play the puck

I'm sure I learned baseball first, my Grandfather was an old semi-pro so Baseball was religion in our family. Interesting insight.

 

[The Iceman]

Lily is a very good D prospect.
As in still a prospect. Not to be counted on to start the season for any reason.
8th D on the depth charts is about right.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

You control/handle the puck with your lower hand...

No you don't. Your lower hand is for power. Go take a stick and try and stick handle with 1 hand. You will have a much easier time with your top hand over trying to stick handle with your lower hand only.

 

[Joey Hoser]

No you don't. Your lower hand is for power. Go take a stick and try and stick handle with 1 hand. You will have a much easier time with your top hand over trying to stick handle with your lower hand only.

Well now I know not to pick you to play on my team.