Thoughts on the rebuild? PART 2
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MatchesMalone
Formerly Innocent Bystander
- Aug 29, 2010
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Looking at the recent Stanley Cup winners, every one went through a full rebuild at some point before winning it all. For St. Louis and Washington, it took ten years from the end of the rebuild period before winning the Cup, but for Pittsburgh, LA, Chicago and Boston, the results came much sooner.
Boston only spent two seasons in full rebuild mode. St. Louis took about six seasons, but it was kind of screwed up by an unexpected playoff appearance in the middle (really only three full tank years).
Accordion to Dorion we're supposed to be in contention for a playoff spot next season and make the playoffs the following year, but this is neither realistic or ideal. According to some posters on this forum, apparently we should be rebuilding for another five years - this is also a terrible idea, as it would lead to confidence and mentality issues with the currently emerging young core, not to mention wasting years of RFA and ELC.
Pittsburgh, LA, Chicago and Washington all spent about four years in full-scale rebuild mode. On the one hand, the Sens are at a bit of a handicap, considering we already wasted one of our top five pick opportunities, but on the other hand, we have the advantage of an exceptional drafting GM, with a very solid pool of prospects currently in place.
Chicago's draft record during their rebuild years was an utter joke. Aside from Kane and Toews first and third overall, they came up almost completely empty-handed from 2005 to 2009. They missed on third overall in 2004 with Cam Barker and seventh overall in 2005 with Jack Skille. Key pieces like Keith, Seabrook, Byfuglien, Crawford were already in place before the rebuild started proper.
LA likewise missed on a couple of their high picks, and likewise also had key pieces of the Cup teams already in place before the rebuild started, in Brown, Quick and Kopitar. The point is, it's not the end of the world to waste a high pick or two, and it doesn't mean we need to extend the tank, especially when you already have high end prospects and young players in place - like Chabot, White, Brown, Gustavsson, etc. But, it does mean that we can't afford to miss on the next couple. A botch on that high pick next year would almost certainly prove disastrous to our future Stanley Cup chances.
Anyway, the point of this post was just to look at recent Cup winners and how our current rebuild compares to theirs. Again, for almost every one of them it was about four years of full-scale rebuild, and then a steady improvement. We're currently two years in, so ideally next year should be another top five pick, and then something around top ten for 2021, and then by 2022 we'll be ready to contend for a playoff spot. And as I outlined in my previous long rebuild plan post, 2022/23 should be the first year of our window for Cup ccontention.
Boston only spent two seasons in full rebuild mode. St. Louis took about six seasons, but it was kind of screwed up by an unexpected playoff appearance in the middle (really only three full tank years).
Accordion to Dorion we're supposed to be in contention for a playoff spot next season and make the playoffs the following year, but this is neither realistic or ideal. According to some posters on this forum, apparently we should be rebuilding for another five years - this is also a terrible idea, as it would lead to confidence and mentality issues with the currently emerging young core, not to mention wasting years of RFA and ELC.
Pittsburgh, LA, Chicago and Washington all spent about four years in full-scale rebuild mode. On the one hand, the Sens are at a bit of a handicap, considering we already wasted one of our top five pick opportunities, but on the other hand, we have the advantage of an exceptional drafting GM, with a very solid pool of prospects currently in place.
Chicago's draft record during their rebuild years was an utter joke. Aside from Kane and Toews first and third overall, they came up almost completely empty-handed from 2005 to 2009. They missed on third overall in 2004 with Cam Barker and seventh overall in 2005 with Jack Skille. Key pieces like Keith, Seabrook, Byfuglien, Crawford were already in place before the rebuild started proper.
LA likewise missed on a couple of their high picks, and likewise also had key pieces of the Cup teams already in place before the rebuild started, in Brown, Quick and Kopitar. The point is, it's not the end of the world to waste a high pick or two, and it doesn't mean we need to extend the tank, especially when you already have high end prospects and young players in place - like Chabot, White, Brown, Gustavsson, etc. But, it does mean that we can't afford to miss on the next couple. A botch on that high pick next year would almost certainly prove disastrous to our future Stanley Cup chances.
Anyway, the point of this post was just to look at recent Cup winners and how our current rebuild compares to theirs. Again, for almost every one of them it was about four years of full-scale rebuild, and then a steady improvement. We're currently two years in, so ideally next year should be another top five pick, and then something around top ten for 2021, and then by 2022 we'll be ready to contend for a playoff spot. And as I outlined in my previous long rebuild plan post, 2022/23 should be the first year of our window for Cup ccontention.
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MatchesMalone
Formerly Innocent Bystander
- Aug 29, 2010
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I looked over your recent posts and I'm going to assume you're not being intentionally disingenuous, but this seems like an odd comment.
If there were more people who felt the same way then I would word it differently in the future, but I suspect most people will understand that I mean I think they will finish somewhere around 12th-20th.
Sweatred
Erase me
- Jan 28, 2019
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Not at all. I’ve seen the quote pop up a lot on the boards as a concern over whether Dorion will successfully tank 19-20. I think his words are the same words any GM would say and have nothing to do with our ability/goal of finishing last. I don’t think he could manage this team to the playoffs (or close) if he wanted to.
Peptic Balcers
Registered User
100% agree, plan should be suck this year, "take a run" at a play-off spot the next year, and make a serious run the following year
I have no problems with us ‘fighting for a playoff spot’ of the GM saying that he wants us to be contending for a playoff spot.
It doesn’t mean a whole lot given that the entire league is trying to contend for the playoffs, and as a GM of a young team, you also have to say the right things and set high expectations.
The reality may be that PD doesn’t expect to anywhere close to the playoffs, and the coaches are tasked with development over wins, but neither group can really come out and say that if they want the kids to at least feel the pressure to try their best to win at the NHL level every game.
It’s not expected to pile up wins, but the effort has to be there every night, and while losing a ton with this squad is expected, if we end up wining more than losing, it would have to be celebrated given how well the kids would have to be playing.
I mean, it’s like extolling the virtues of a particular disliked high school class to my oldest daughter. I may not feel that it’s important in the grand scheme of things, but I don’t want to tell her that because I want her to get comfortable working hard and getting good grades, regardless, because THOSE are important skills in the grand scheme of things.
Our kids are too young for the most part this year, but I expect next season to be one where enough of the kids will be comfortable enough for us to perhaps be picking top ten or teens instead of top 5. If we get a couple of big developments, we could even sneak in to a WC.
This is the first ground up rebuild that I have experienced as a grown up, and I want to fully enjoy it as they don’t happen to this level too often. There is a difference between being a team that perpetually sucks, and a team
That is rebuilding. We started into the league as a team that perpetually sucks, but since the late 90’s we’ve never look back.
Morning discombobulated thoughts from Tray....
It doesn’t mean a whole lot given that the entire league is trying to contend for the playoffs, and as a GM of a young team, you also have to say the right things and set high expectations.
The reality may be that PD doesn’t expect to anywhere close to the playoffs, and the coaches are tasked with development over wins, but neither group can really come out and say that if they want the kids to at least feel the pressure to try their best to win at the NHL level every game.
It’s not expected to pile up wins, but the effort has to be there every night, and while losing a ton with this squad is expected, if we end up wining more than losing, it would have to be celebrated given how well the kids would have to be playing.
I mean, it’s like extolling the virtues of a particular disliked high school class to my oldest daughter. I may not feel that it’s important in the grand scheme of things, but I don’t want to tell her that because I want her to get comfortable working hard and getting good grades, regardless, because THOSE are important skills in the grand scheme of things.
Our kids are too young for the most part this year, but I expect next season to be one where enough of the kids will be comfortable enough for us to perhaps be picking top ten or teens instead of top 5. If we get a couple of big developments, we could even sneak in to a WC.
This is the first ground up rebuild that I have experienced as a grown up, and I want to fully enjoy it as they don’t happen to this level too often. There is a difference between being a team that perpetually sucks, and a team
That is rebuilding. We started into the league as a team that perpetually sucks, but since the late 90’s we’ve never look back.
Morning discombobulated thoughts from Tray....
I expect our GM to talk about competing, i just dont want to see him do anything about it prematurely.
When the Sens returned to the NHL, they told us we were going to go on a long 5-7 year building plan hoping to contend in years 7-11. That team was a few key pieces behind where we are now. But hard as that plan was to be patient with, at least there was messaging of a plan we could get behind. And an actual advantage we could get in the cba by rather uniquely doing it that way.
Now many of us can put forth a message of hope going forward as seen in the best possible light, giving them the best possible benefit of the doubt, but they havent truly done that part of their job yet. Maybe one day a few years from now they will. But right now its pretty evident we are riding on the good ship rock bottom and the voyage down here has a bit of time left.
When the Sens returned to the NHL, they told us we were going to go on a long 5-7 year building plan hoping to contend in years 7-11. That team was a few key pieces behind where we are now. But hard as that plan was to be patient with, at least there was messaging of a plan we could get behind. And an actual advantage we could get in the cba by rather uniquely doing it that way.
Now many of us can put forth a message of hope going forward as seen in the best possible light, giving them the best possible benefit of the doubt, but they havent truly done that part of their job yet. Maybe one day a few years from now they will. But right now its pretty evident we are riding on the good ship rock bottom and the voyage down here has a bit of time left.
Samsquanch
Raging Bull Squatch
Brian Murray preached the same thing. But between him and Patty they have a total of 0 cups, so Im far from ready to say thats the template for how to run a championship level team, and not just a boys club of sorts.
Hockey and pro sports in general are ruthless, and I feel like the biggest winners dont forget that fact. If keeping Kelly meant we had to make him an assistant coach (to the detriment of our team), then this is a good guy that we needed to walk away from, unfortunately.
Sens of Anarchy
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2013
- 65,308
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At the end of year 1 of the rebuild which was largely tear down losing our 3 best players and having traded our 1st round pick no one should be talking about competing for a playoff spot. They should be preaching patience, that there will be some pain going forward but with the idea of building though the draft , and being ready in x years .. not the year after you announce your rebuild.I have no problems with us ‘fighting for a playoff spot’ of the GM saying that he wants us to be contending for a playoff spot.
It doesn’t mean a whole lot given that the entire league is trying to contend for the playoffs, and as a GM of a young team, you also have to say the right things and set high expectations.
The reality may be that PD doesn’t expect to anywhere close to the playoffs, and the coaches are tasked with development over wins, but neither group can really come out and say that if they want the kids to at least feel the pressure to try their best to win at the NHL level every game.
It’s not expected to pile up wins, but the effort has to be there every night, and while losing a ton with this squad is expected, if we end up wining more than losing, it would have to be celebrated given how well the kids would have to be playing.
I mean, it’s like extolling the virtues of a particular disliked high school class to my oldest daughter. I may not feel that it’s important in the grand scheme of things, but I don’t want to tell her that because I want her to get comfortable working hard and getting good grades, regardless, because THOSE are important skills in the grand scheme of things.
Our kids are too young for the most part this year, but I expect next season to be one where enough of the kids will be comfortable enough for us to perhaps be picking top ten or teens instead of top 5. If we get a couple of big developments, we could even sneak in to a WC.
This is the first ground up rebuild that I have experienced as a grown up, and I want to fully enjoy it as they don’t happen to this level too often. There is a difference between being a team that perpetually sucks, and a team
That is rebuilding. We started into the league as a team that perpetually sucks, but since the late 90’s we’ve never look back.
Morning discombobulated thoughts from Tray....
Perhaps, but fighting for a playoff spot is what every single team in the NHL is doing. Fans may be looking at this season coming up as a top 5 pick, and maybe the GM does as well.
But we sure he’ll dont want the GM feeling the team that, and we don’t want the team playing that way.
If fans didn’t have a massive hate on for the team right now, this comment would be a non issue.
I agree with the introductory statement. Let’s build the culture we want in Belleville first and promote next year after a winning season. Chabot, White, Brady can cope one more year knowing that the leadership they will gain will transition next year as we add two quality pieces in the 1st round at least.
Benttheknee
Registered User
How many years until the Sens are back in the playoffs? I’m gonna be optimistic and say they make it in 2021-22 led by Chabot, Tkachuk, Batherson and our next two 1st round picks.
DaveMatthew
Bring in Peter
It's possible to be honest.
Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock warns there’s pain coming as he takes over | The Star
Instead, we get "vastly improved" and "we're a team" last offseason, and "finishing 30th is unacceptable" this year.
Dorion only had to look down the 401 at how to properly message a rebuild.
The only saving grace is that hopefully Melnyk believes what Dorion is selling and fires him in February when this team is dead last, yet again.
BonHoonLayneCornell
Registered User
Their inability to be honest with fans has been a problem. Nothing wrong with being realistic about your situation whether that's development/competitive trajectory or spending, but they seem to have a problem with that.
GrantLemons
Church of FYOUS
It's ridiculous. It's more of the team treating the fans like neanderthals.
We know when a team is bad, and is going to be bad. Don't sugarcoat it and lie about it. We should be bad this year and most people understand that, yet they still spew this garbage to us like we as sports fans can't understand a tank/rebuild of a pro sports team (despite the fact our neighbours down the 401 just did it).
It's so easy to push the narrative of a development year, but then he goes and says something completely idiotic and puts some pointless 'expectations' on this team of young players. Then he'll be asked about it at the end of the year, and he'll have to bumble and fumble his way through an answer that everyone will collectively laugh at him for.
I simply cannot wait until the day Pierre Dorion no longer manages this team.
Frank8
Registered User
- Sep 19, 2013
- 693
- 307
In contrast to Dorion, D.J. is saying all the right things, putting emphasis on player development:
GrantLemons
Church of FYOUS
Thank god. At least one person in a management position can read a f***ing room and understand what to say and when to say it.
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
- 53,811
- 31,018
To be fair, he kind of has to temper Dorion's expectations if he want's to keep his job. He knows the wins won't come right away, so he's got to pump the brakes a bit and make sure Dorion knows the indicators for a successful season aren't going to be found in the wins column.
So far this rebuild has obtained a 1LW(Chucky), 1LD(Chabot), 2RW(Batherson) 2C(White) and a 2LD(Brannstrom). Still need to find a 1C, 1RW, 2LW, 1RD, 1G
BondraTime
Registered User
The rebuild has obtained Tkachuk and Brannstrom thus far (plus tons of other lower pieces and pieces not yet drafted).
Chabot, White and Batherson were all obtained prior to a rebuild even being thought about.
AchtzehnBaby
Global Matador
Well, expected when comparing coach Babcock to GM Dorion when Babcock is to be compared with DJ
I guess I didnt word that right, I was just listing the pieces in place and the pieces that still need to be found
BonHoonLayneCornell
Registered User
Even Tkachuk is in a grey area. They were getting a high pick that year whether they chose to rebuild or not.
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