Thoughts on the Jones deal?

[Brightwing]

Breaking Down the Seth Jones Trade and Extension Using Analytics

This article goes into great detail about the weaknesses in Jones game and why he isn't the elite dman people think he is.

Wait, does that WAR number indicate Adam Boqvist is 10x better than Seth Jones? According to this Jones has a 6 WAR% and Boqvist has a 61. Like Boqvist is going to get you 10X as many wins above a replacement level player than Jones?

 

[JaegerDice]

Wait, does that WAR number indicate Adam Boqvist is 10x better than Seth Jones? According to this Jones has a 6 WAR% and Boqvist has a 61. Like Boqvist is going to get you 10X as many wins above a replacement level player than Jones?

No, it's a percentile.

It takes ice time, deployment, qoc into account, as well as all the underlying metrics.

If Seth Jones got the same ice time, deployment, qoc as Boqvist, his WAR percentile would be higher by the JFresh model.

Of the players deployed like Seth Jones was, roughly 94% of them were better.

Of the players deployed like Adam Boqvist was, only 40% or so were better.

That said, Seth Jones WAR (that is, the raw underlying stat rather than population percentile) has been poor for awhile, not just by JFresh's model. Evolving-hockey, my favorite model, had Jones as a -1 last year, while Boqvist was a +0.4. Year before that it was close. 0.9 for Boqvist, 0.8 for Jones. The difference being of course, Boqvist was putting up a WAR roughly as good or better than what you would expect a 20 year old 3rd pairing dman to put up. While Seth Jones was decidedly NOT putting up the kind of impact you'd want a supposed elite #1d playing in all situations to put up.

 

[Pez68]

Lol. People who believe they can rate hockey players like they do baseball players are morons. Period.

WAR in hockey is a f***ing joke.

 

[JaegerDice]

Lol. People who believe they can rate hockey players like they do baseball players are morons. Period.

WAR in hockey is a f***ing joke.

Not really, but even if you do prefer other methods of evaluation, Seth Jones comes up wanting based on any measure of actual on-ice impact.

He is tops however in the all-important 'does he look like a guy that would be a good NHL player' measure. I'm not sure how he does on the equally successful 'does he have a hot girlfriend' evaluation, but I'm sure somebody can dig it up.

I'm being facetious obviously, but even guys like Mike Kelly at SportLogiq who are higher on him than most are only willing to go to 'top pairing dman' (so he’s not even willing to go #1 Dman, ouch) and 'not worth 9.5 million'

Tools are there. Hope they get leveraged in Chicago, otherwise the team is well and truly ****ed.

 

[Pez68]

Not really, but even if you do prefer other methods of evaluation, Seth Jones comes up wanting based on any measure of actual on-ice impact.

He is tops however in the all-important 'does he look like a guy that would be a good NHL player' measure. Which is very important to some. I'm not sure how he does on the equally successful 'does he have a hot girlfriend' evaluation, but I'm sure somebody can dig it up.

Tools are there. Hope they get leveraged in Chicago, otherwise the team is well and truly ****ed.

The problem with analytics is the fact that hockey is a TEAM game. How good the other four players on the ice are, has a huge impact on all of those statistics.

If these people were so confident in their rankings, why aren't they posting some lists? I'd love to see a list of the highest ranked WAR players in the NHL.

Any model that claims Nick f***ing Bonino contributes more to winning than Patrick Kane is horseshit.

 

[Pez68]

Also, some other gems from Evolving Hockey. They had Craig Smith ranked above Crosby and Draisaitl in the "Hart Trophy Race"



Look at some of the players on this f***ing list. SO many of these players have absolutely no business being anywhere near it.

 

[JaegerDice]

Also, some other gems from Evolving Hockey. They had Craig Smith ranked above Crosby and Draisaitl in the "Hart Trophy Race"



Look at some of the players on this f***ing list. SO many of these players have absolutely no business being anywhere near it.

I like Evolving Hockey for the very fact they weight defensive impact more highly than other models. By their model Toews was in Hart contention between 2012-2015, which I agree with.

Draisaitl is f***ing terrible on D and hurts him in their model.

There are lots of WAR models out there, certainly some that weigh impact more in line with how you value EVO, EVD, PPO, PKD, and various underlying play-driving stats.

WAR isnt just one agreed upon model.

 

[Bubba88]

Not really, but even if you do prefer other methods of evaluation, Seth Jones comes up wanting based on any measure of actual on-ice impact.

He is tops however in the all-important 'does he look like a guy that would be a good NHL player' measure. I'm not sure how he does on the equally successful 'does he have a hot girlfriend' evaluation, but I'm sure somebody can dig it up.

I'm being facetious obviously, but even guys like Mike Kelly at SportLogiq who are higher on him than most are only willing to go to 'top pairing dman' (so he’s not even willing to go #1 Dman, ouch) and 'not worth 9.5 million'

Tools are there. Hope they get leveraged in Chicago, otherwise the team is well and truly ****ed.

It's a team game... it's not a one on one stats only matter game. It's not about a percentage to get on base/at bat.

Does any analytic tool factor in team chemistry? Does it include stuff like morale? Look at CBJ and what lead them to trade Dubois. Don't you think this will help team morale and the on ice performance?
You can't put that into analytic tools. Compare Jones with a PO Columbus roster (with Panarin) to Jones with a non PO roster (without a Panarin). There is a huge difference.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

The problem with analytics is the fact that hockey is a TEAM game. How good the other four players on the ice are, has a huge impact on all of those statistics.

If these people were so confident in their rankings, why aren't they posting some lists? I'd love to see a list of the highest ranked WAR players in the NHL.

Any model that claims Nick f***ing Bonino contributes more to winning than Patrick Kane is horseshit.

I agree that Jones isn't great, but basically this.

 

[Pez68]

I like Evolving Hockey for the very fact they weight defensive impact more highly than other models. By their model Toews was in Hart contention between 2012-2015, which I agree with.

Draisaitl is f***ing terrible on D and hurts him in their model.

There are lots of WAR models out there, certainly some that weigh impact more in line with how you value EVO, EVD, PPO, PKD, and various underlying play-driving stats.

WAR isnt just one agreed upon model.

Again, it's flawed because hockey is a TEAM game. Who gives a shit if Draisaitl is f***ing terrible on D? You pair him with a guy who can do the defensive work for him. Suddenly, he's no longer "f***ing terrible on D" statistically anymore... So much about hockey is about chemistry and how players compliment each other and perform TOGETHER. Not individually.

 

[Larmer83]

You can't put that into analytic tools. Compare Jones with a PO Columbus roster (with Panarin) to Jones with a non PO roster (without a Panarin). There is a huge difference.

How does that work when looking at Zach Werenski?

 

[JaegerDice]

Again, it's flawed because hockey is a TEAM game. Who gives a shit if Draisaitl is f***ing terrible on D? You pair him with a guy who can do the defensive work for him. Suddenly, he's no longer "f***ing terrible on D" statistically anymore... So much about hockey is about chemistry and how players compliment each other and perform TOGETHER. Not individually.

That’s certainly a fair argument.

I dont think it makes him any better on D, its just covering for him. Putting Toews with Kane didnt magically improve Kane’s defensive play. Toews just mitigated the damage.

I guess the question is, who are you putting Jones with to make him better both at suppression and offensive play driving?

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Again, it's flawed because hockey is a TEAM game. Who gives a shit if Draisaitl is f***ing terrible on D? You pair him with a guy who can do the defensive work for him. Suddenly, he's no longer "f***ing terrible on D" statistically anymore... So much about hockey is about chemistry and how players compliment each other and perform TOGETHER. Not individually.

I agree here. You really can't isolate a player from the other 4 skaters on the ice.

I think you could isolate at a forward line/D pairing level, but not at an individual level.

They're useful at a macro level but not at a micro level.

 

[Pez68]

That’s certainly a fair argument.

I dont think it makes him any better on D, its just covering for him. Putting Toews with Kane didnt magically improve Kane’s defensive play. Toews just mitigated the damage.

I guess the question is, who are you putting Jones with to make him better both at suppression and offensive play driving?

Seth Jones did not want to be in Columbus. He was not happy there. Are there analytics that can account for that? How that affected his play? Unhappy players typically aren't as productive as they can be.

 

[JaegerDice]

Seth Jones did not want to be in Columbus. He was not happy there. Are there analytics that can account for that?

Nope.

Analytics are about on-ice output, not inputs.

 

[Pez68]

Nope.

Analytics are about on-ice output, not inputs.

Right. Which is why I look at his last couple seasons and pretty much just shrug. He's a better player than that. He was not happy playing for that team, and likely for Torts in general. Torts' coached teams also tend to regress pretty badly after a bit. He has a short shelf life.

 

[JaegerDice]

Right. Which is why I look at his last couple seasons and pretty much just shrug. He's a better player than that. He was not happy playing for that team, and likely for Torts in general. Torts' coached teams also tend to regress pretty badly after a bit. He has a short shelf life.

As a Blackhawks fan I very much hope you’re right.

 

[Pez68]

As a Blackhawks fan I very much hope you’re right.

When was his last "elite" season, analytically?

 

[Hawkaholic]

Still think it's the wrong move for this franchise, but ..

Welcome Seth Jones, hope you live up to the pressure you'll be under.

 

[Pez68]

I'm not sure how anyone can pay any attention to any of the WAR models, when they have Connor McDavid only being worth like.....4 wins. You take McDavid off the Oilers and replace him with a "replacement level" center, and think they're only finishing 8 points lower in the standings? lol Come on.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

When was his last "elite" season, analytically?

2017-18

 

[Pez68]

2017-18

WTF is this nonsense? Contract value?

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

WTF is this nonsense? Contract value?

Kind of, but it's also straight value.

I don't believe it either, but it claims that Jones is worth 3.5M next year.\

For reference, anything above 2.0 is #1 quality, and anything in the 3.0-4.0+ is elite.

 

[Crow]

2017-18

Lol what are the projections several years from now based on?

Or even next year?

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Lol what are the projections several years from now based on?

Or even next year?

Some combo of numbers and similar players and how they did.

I really have no idea how they do this but I'm interested.

It's also under the assumption that once a player starts to get worse they never get better, and once a player makes a big jump ahead they only maintain or get worse from there.