Thoughts on the Jones deal?

Do you like the trade?


  • Total voters
    179

ChiHawks10

Registered User
Jul 7, 2009
28,080
21,393
Chicago 'Burbs
Some combo of numbers and similar players and how they did.

I really have no idea how they do this but I'm interested.

It's also under the assumption that once a player starts to get worse they never get better, and once a player makes a big jump ahead they only maintain or get worse from there.

It's stupid. If you like numbers get into baseball stats.
 
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Crow

Registered User
May 19, 2014
3,909
2,826
Some combo of numbers and similar players and how they did.

I really have no idea how they do this but I'm interested.

It's also under the assumption that once a player starts to get worse they never get better, and once a player makes a big jump ahead they only maintain or get worse from there.
The last part is what I’m afraid the creator of the graph/chart is trying to say. As if people’s career performance is linear. I imagine it’s true when they get older, or when they have an injury. These things don’t apply to everyone as a projection.
 
Last edited:

Larmer83

I'm taking the high road moving forward.
May 13, 2018
1,473
2,069
Lakewood, CO
Lol what are the projections several years from now based on?

Or even next year?
Seth Jones projected Analytics...

=((Late career Seabrook skating quotient/Leddy play below the goal line) x Doug Crossman or Dave Feamster jersey number) + Boqvist head hunting slap shots. If you don't like the number, then make up some shit.
 

Kaners Bald Spot

Registered User
Dec 6, 2011
22,704
10,812
Kane County, IL
The last part is what I’m afraid the creator of the graph/chart is trying to say. As if people’s career performance is linear. I imagine it’s true when they get older, or when they have an injury. These things don’t apply to everyone as a projection.
Those guys would argue that they do, and they have years of data proving it.
 

wahsnairb

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
5,240
2,558
Love JFresh's work. His work on Elite Prospects is great as well.

And it's not like his model is the only one that doesn't rate Seth Jones as highly as the #goodhockeymen of the NHL.

Micah McCurdy is tough by fair:




As is Mike Kelly, who works with SportLogiq, a company that works directly with NHL teams and all their supposed magical way-better-than-public numbers:

SethJonesweighted.png




Can Seth Jones live up to his massive contract after trade to Blackhawks?

Puck Soup podcast this week had some great discussion about the Blackhawks moves as a whole.

PDOCast had a fantastic conversation with Alison Lukan, who's covered the Blue Jackets for years at the Athletic, they went in deep about the trade as well.

At this point, sides on the Jones argument seem pretty clear. You either love his tools and believe he can put it together, or you believe what his performance over the last 3-5 years says about him.


I’ll throw it out one more time. Exclude this past season on a dumpster fire team who just removed their coach and are blowing it up again and you have: 14th, 9th, 4th, 18th in Norris voting. It’s not just the skill set. He has been very good and very highly regarded until recently.

I also watch him play 30+ times a year and you can see he is better than most everyone else… with your own eyes. You’ll get that chance soon and hopefully all of this “he sucks” and “he is a 2/3D” like one bum on here said will calm down.

There is no arguing that he didn’t have a brutal year last year. Any 2 year evaluations (that’s what one of those seems to be), should be taken with a grain of salt.

A team that never makes the playoffs rode him for 65 minutes in a playoff game. Consider that.
 

Pez68

Registered User
Mar 18, 2010
18,487
25,442
Chicago, IL
Kind of, but it's also straight value.

I don't believe it either, but it claims that Jones is worth 3.5M next year.\

For reference, anything above 2.0 is #1 quality, and anything in the 3.0-4.0+ is elite.

It's one of the dumbest things I've ever seen. A top four defenseman's salary depends entirely on...when he became a top four defenseman. You have a shitload of players on ELC's or on cheap second contracts. They are not indicative of what a top four defenseman is "worth". The entire premise is flawed from the start.
 

RayP

Tf
Jan 12, 2011
94,109
17,878
Still think it's the wrong move for this franchise, but ..

Welcome Seth Jones, hope you live up to the pressure you'll be under.


Pretty much where I’m at. Can’t do anything about it now so maybe as well hope for the best. Going to hold out hope that he wasn’t giving his all under Torts and finds another gear with us.
 
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Toews2Bickell

It's Showtime
Nov 24, 2013
23,393
23,306
feelings on this deal was fire stan but realistically Boqvist and Sillenger end up good but not great players, next year pick is likely to be 16-32 range...Biggest issue with this deal is the contract, not the trade itself, but Seth should be a really good player for this team
 

Styles

No Light, No Signal
Apr 6, 2017
8,190
13,254
Imagine trying to project stats for a hockey player in 2 years let alone 8. Like they know what type of signings and or new players will be on the team by then. What we have like 2 players signed to 2 more years? The Hawks could have a Tampa like team for all we know in 4 years but let’s follow these stupid charts. Holy f*** are people getting lazy and stupid. Hockey teams past two years are impossible to project because the turnover is crazy.
 

Kaners Bald Spot

Registered User
Dec 6, 2011
22,704
10,812
Kane County, IL
BTW I'm at the point where I'm just going to see how Jones does with the Hawks and hope he is that #1 D that they think they're trading for. If he is that guy, then this has a chance to be the NHL version of the Chris Sale deal. The Hawks would be getting Boston's end, but maybe without the championship. Sale was every bit as advertised for the Sawx though.

Remember, Sale had a couple of mediocre seasons in 2015-16 but the talent was still there.
Quintana outperformed him in the fancy stats those years.
 

Styles

No Light, No Signal
Apr 6, 2017
8,190
13,254
BTW I'm at the point where I'm just going to see how Jones does with the Hawks and hope he is that #1 D that they think they're trading for. If he is that guy, then this has a chance to be the NHL version of the Chris Sale deal. The Hawks would be getting Boston's end, but maybe without the championship. Sale was every bit as advertised for the Sawx though.

Remember, Sale had a couple of mediocre seasons in 2015-16 but the talent was still there.
Quintana outperformed him in the fancy stats those years.

Says the guy who has been bullish that Seth Jones isn’t a 1D let alone a top 50 in the league……

You’ll be taking your medicine come October
 

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