Thoughts on the Jones deal?

[Illinihockey]

would you trade dach for boqvist back right now? lets see if we can walk you through this with some of your own logic.

I wouldn't trade either of them

 

[JaegerDice]

An alternate way to look at it is they traded:

• A former number 8 pick who is an offense only defenseman with a concussion history, who has not developed physically after D+2, and has shown neither the quantity, nor quality of offensive opportunities in 91 professional games (but is only 20). I'm not saying he's a bust, nor he can't develop that offense, but the preceding sentence is just the facts.
• The number 11 pick in a draft with a large drop off after the 9th pick.
• The first round pick after a year they are clearly "going for it" which could result in a pick in the 20-ish range (this is where I think a lot of the disagreement in the value of the trade package occurs). After you adjust the value of that # 20-ish pick by netting out the positive value that they received by improving their 44 to 32 this year (which everyone who hates this trade conveniently forgets), and a 6th round pick, that is the equivalent value of the 37th pick.

91 professional games is nothing. The mere fact that he's already played that many at 20 years old is an indictment of the Blackhawks depth on D.

Erik Karlsson is Boqvist's closest comparable.

Karlsson played his first season at Boqvist's current age and got 26 points in 60 games (.43 PPG). By comparison, Boqvist got 16 in 35 this year (.46 PPG), and 13 points in 41 games last season as a 19 year old (0.32 PPG). Through his first 91 games he has a 0.38 PPG playing 3rd pairing minutes plus off-and-on PP time. That is VERY GOOD for a 20 year old dman on a bad team.

It took another two years for Karlsson to enter his prime, getting more ice time and putting up more points and delivering more on-ice impact against tougher competition. We aren't even giving Boqvist the chance to reach 22 years old. Meanwhile, Forsling was kicked out of town for 'not reaching his potential' fast enough... he's 25 now, and a top 4 dman. In a shocking turn of events, you need to be patient with prospects, they don't all become superstars over night. Not every Dman is Cale Makar. If you check the chart in the top left corner of the above image, you'll see it will be another FIVE seasons from now when you'll be able to start comfortably projecting Boqvist as a bust. FIVE.

I do agree that there's no guarentee any pick the Blackhawks use (and therefor, give up) will turn into an elite player. But they are likely to turn into NHL players... which is important, because the chances of drafting an NHL player after the 1st round (actually, it's after about 2/3rds of the way through the 1st round) is incredibly low. So you're basically going to need those picks to fill out the roster around you're insanely overpaid Dman with ELC talent. They have basically given up 3 years worth of that support talent... meaning they will have to trade even more assets and/or overpay in FA to provide it.

I think it's insane to suggest that the Blackhawks will be in the top 3rd of teams in the NHL this season, which is what they would need for their pick to be in the 20s range. Teams ahead of them include Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Toronto, NYI, Carolina, Florida, Boston, Edmonton, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Washington... and that's before you get to the teams right around the same level like Dallas, Philly, Nashville, St Louis, etc. They are definitively, inarguably better than exactly one team in their division right now, Arizona. They might, MIGHT, be able to squeak into the top half if literally EVERYTHING goes right for them.

Again, in order for Seth Jones to provide the kind of value to make up for the sacrifices the Blackhawks made to acquire him, he will have to be literally better than he has ever been. I hope he does it, because if he doesn't, the Chicago Blackhawks will be not only bad for a long, LONG time, but they will be bad with basically no hope of crawling out of it for even longer, cause they'll be putting another 2 years wait on top of development time for their next shots at legitimate impact players.

 

[Pez68]

91 professional games is nothing. The mere fact that he's already played that many at 20 years old is an indictment of the Blackhawks depth on D.

Erik Karlsson is Boqvist's closest comparable.

Karlsson played his first season at Boqvist's current age and got 26 points in 60 games (.43 PPG). By comparison, Boqvist got 16 in 35 this year (.46 PPG), and 13 points in 41 games last season as a 19 year old (0.32 PPG). Through his first 91 games he has a 0.38 PPG playing 3rd pairing minutes plus off-and-on PP time. That is VERY GOOD for a 20 year old dman on a bad team.

It took another two years for Karlsson to enter his prime, getting more ice time and putting up more points and delivering more on-ice impact against tougher competition. We aren't even giving Boqvist the chance to reach 22 years old. Meanwhile, Forsling was kicked out of town for 'not reaching his potential' fast enough... he's 25 now, and a top 4 dman. In a shocking turn of events, you need to be patient with prospects, they don't all become superstars over night. Not every Dman is Cale Makar. If you check the chart in the top left corner of the above image, you'll see it will be another FIVE seasons from now when you'll be able to start comfortably projecting Boqvist as a bust. FIVE.

I do agree that there's no guarentee any pick the Blackhawks use (and therefor, give up) will turn into an elite player. But they are likely to turn into NHL players... which is important, because the chances of drafting an NHL player after the 1st round (actually, it's after about 2/3rds of the way through the draft) is incredibly low. So you're basically going to need those picks to fill out the roster around you're insanely overpaid Dman with ELC talent. They have basically given up 3 years worth of that support talent... meaning they will have to trade even more assets and/or overpay in FA to provide it.

I think it's insane to suggest that the Blackhawks will be in the top 3rd of teams in the NHL this season, which is what they would need for their pick to be in the 20s range. Teams ahead of them include Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Toronto, NYI, Carolina, Florida, Boston, Edmonton, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Washington... and that's before you get to the teams right around the same level like Dallas, Philly, Nashville, St Louis, etc. They are definitively, inarguably better than exactly one team in their division right now, Arizona. They might, MIGHT, be able to squeak into the top half if literally EVERYTHING goes right for them.

Again, in order for Seth Jones to provide the kind of value to make up for the sacrifices the Blackhawks made to acquire him, he will have to be literally better than he has ever been. I hope he does it, because if he doesn't, the Chicago Blackhawks will be not only bad for a long, LONG time, but they will be bad with basically no hope of crawling out of it for even longer, cause they'll be putting another 2 years wait on top of development time for their next shots at legitimate impact players.

What team in the Central has improved, at this point? I love how people try to predict standings before rosters are even finalized.

 

[JaegerDice]

What team in the Central has improved, at this point? I love how people try to predict standings before rosters are even finalized.

St Louis and Winnipeg have both obviously improved from last season.

Dallas has stayed roughly the same which, combined with not getting the plague to start the season, keeps them ahead of Chicago.

Colorado is obviously in a completely different stratosphere. They've got pieces of better teams than the Blackhawks in their stool.

Minnesota needs to figure things out with their star player. With him they're better, without him, they're roughly on par.

Nashville is around the same quality as the Blackhawks. Better defensively, worse offensively.

Arizona is the only team it's clear Chicago will end the season with more points than. They'll basically be in a dogfight with two teams in their own division for the 2nd wild card, cause the Pacific doesn't have 4 great teams.

 

[FeatherHead]

Couturier has never made an all star game right?

Who gives a flying **** on a rolling donut about all star game appearances? They’re largely fan voted popularity contests anyway.

 

[Pez68]

St Louis and Winnipeg have both obviously improved from last season.

Dallas has stayed roughly the same which, combined with not getting the plague to start the season, keeps them ahead of Chicago.

Colorado is obviously in a completely different stratosphere. They've got pieces of better teams than the Blackhawks in their stool.

Minnesota needs to figure things out with their star player. With him they're better, without him, they're roughly on par.

Nashville is around the same quality as the Blackhawks. Better defensively, worse offensively.

Arizona is the only team it's clear Chicago will end the season with more points than. They'll basically be in a dogfight with two teams in their own division for the 2nd wild card, cause the Pacific doesn't have 4 great teams.

Dallas is f***ing OLD. They are also currently $2M over the cap. But they're obviously ahead of Chicago?

Winnipeg doesn't even have enough players to play right now. But they've obviously improved? lol

How exactly has St. Louis improved? Tarasenko wants out. Their defense still isn't great. Who will score goals for them?

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

So I hear Eichel is going to miss most of next season. I don't think he gets traded until next summer then.

 

[ChiHawks10]

So I hear Eichel is going to miss most of next season. I don't think he gets traded until next summer then.

Trade him for Dach.

 

[WarLax]

So I hear Eichel is going to miss most of next season. I don't think he gets traded until next summer then.

If thats true it just seems like Eichel is delaying his surgery one way or the other to dissuade any team from trying to trade for him before his NTC kicks in.

He's legit trying to force his way into a specific situation the following year and kick Buffalo in the nuts on the way out.

 

[x Tame Impala]

If thats true it just seems like Eichel is delaying his surgery one way or the other to dissuade any team from trying to trade for him before his NTC kicks in.

He's legit trying to force his way into a specific situation the following year and kick Buffalo in the nuts on the way out.

Kinda depressing to think about. Gotta feel for the fans. Imagine if instead of 3 Cups we had to see Toews and Kane never take us to the playoffs and then publicly bring attention to wanting a trade.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Kinda depressing to think about. Gotta feel for the fans. Imagine if instead of 3 Cups we had to see Toews and Kane never take us to the playoffs and then publicly bring attention to wanting a trade.

Why would anyone want to play in Buffalo? He has absolutely zero chance of accomplishing anything in his career if he stays there.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Why would anyone want to play in Buffalo? He has absolutely zero chance of accomplishing anything in his career if he stays there.

You could've said the same about Chicago in 2004 or so. Buffalo is a storied hockey town, there fans deserve dedicated ownership and management

 

[Brightwing]

91 professional games is nothing. The mere fact that he's already played that many at 20 years old is an indictment of the Blackhawks depth on D.

Erik Karlsson is Boqvist's closest comparable.

Karlsson played his first season at Boqvist's current age and got 26 points in 60 games (.43 PPG). By comparison, Boqvist got 16 in 35 this year (.46 PPG), and 13 points in 41 games last season as a 19 year old (0.32 PPG). Through his first 91 games he has a 0.38 PPG playing 3rd pairing minutes plus off-and-on PP time. That is VERY GOOD for a 20 year old dman on a bad team.

It took another two years for Karlsson to enter his prime, getting more ice time and putting up more points and delivering more on-ice impact against tougher competition. We aren't even giving Boqvist the chance to reach 22 years old. Meanwhile, Forsling was kicked out of town for 'not reaching his potential' fast enough... he's 25 now, and a top 4 dman. In a shocking turn of events, you need to be patient with prospects, they don't all become superstars over night. Not every Dman is Cale Makar. If you check the chart in the top left corner of the above image, you'll see it will be another FIVE seasons from now when you'll be able to start comfortably projecting Boqvist as a bust. FIVE.

I do agree that there's no guarentee any pick the Blackhawks use (and therefor, give up) will turn into an elite player. But they are likely to turn into NHL players... which is important, because the chances of drafting an NHL player after the 1st round (actually, it's after about 2/3rds of the way through the draft) is incredibly low. So you're basically going to need those picks to fill out the roster around you're insanely overpaid Dman with ELC talent. They have basically given up 3 years worth of that support talent... meaning they will have to trade even more assets and/or overpay in FA to provide it.

I think it's insane to suggest that the Blackhawks will be in the top 3rd of teams in the NHL this season, which is what they would need for their pick to be in the 20s range. Teams ahead of them include Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Toronto, NYI, Carolina, Florida, Boston, Edmonton, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Washington... and that's before you get to the teams right around the same level like Dallas, Philly, Nashville, St Louis, etc. They are definitively, inarguably better than exactly one team in their division right now, Arizona. They might, MIGHT, be able to squeak into the top half if literally EVERYTHING goes right for them.

Again, in order for Seth Jones to provide the kind of value to make up for the sacrifices the Blackhawks made to acquire him, he will have to be literally better than he has ever been. I hope he does it, because if he doesn't, the Chicago Blackhawks will be not only bad for a long, LONG time, but they will be bad with basically no hope of crawling out of it for even longer, cause they'll be putting another 2 years wait on top of development time for their next shots at legitimate impact players.

I just think it's a lot harder to get the timing right for d prospects because there are only 6 spots a night compared to 12 on forward and you sacrifice a lot working a slowly developing young dman into the lineup. Contending teams have a real rough time doing it and I don't blame Chicago or Carolina for moving on from Forsling.

That's why you see so many good dmen play on teams they weren't drafted by. They get moved around until they stabilize and pop off. The list is long from Chara to Jones.

The reason you had a generation of Hawks dmen come up together was because the team was really bad at that time. You can't be a winning team with multiple green dmen.

The Makars and Heiskanens who come in ready to play at a high level are the exception and not the rule.

 

[ChiHawks10]

You could've said the same about Chicago in 2004 or so. Buffalo is a storied hockey town, there fans deserve dedicated ownership and management

That's not on the player, though. I 100% understand why he, and any other NHLer would want to get out, or avoid Buffalo. It's a shitshow. I feel for the fans, but they need to hit that organization where it hurts. Stop going. Send the ownership a message. Hawks fans did it.

 

[LavalPhantom]

I just think it's a lot harder to get the timing right for d prospects because there are only 6 spots a night compared to 12 on forward and you sacrifice a lot working a slowly developing young dman into the lineup. Contending teams have a real rough time doing it and I don't blame Chicago or Carolina for moving on from Forsling.

That's why you see so many good dmen play on teams they weren't drafted by. They get moved around until they stabilize and pop off. The list is long from Chara to Jones.

The reason you had a generation of Hawks dmen come up together was because the team was really bad at that time. You can't be a winning team with multiple green dmen.

The Makars and Heiskanens who come in ready to play at a high level are the exception and not the rule.

That is even more true for goalies. How many really flourish with the team that drafted them? That’s another reason to be careful about using valuable picks to select them.

 

[ozzzie19]

How? Dach has 10 goals and 33 points in 82 NHL games. Boqvist has 6 and 29 in 76 and he's a defenseman.

Over the last two seasons, Adam Boqvist had 993 5v5 minutes and had 5 goals and 4 primary assists.
In 2019-2020 for the Hawks, Olli Maatta had 1028 5v5 minutes and had 4 goals and 4 primary assists.

Quoting Boqvist's points is pointless (ba-dum ching!) for many reasons, let alone the fact that they aren't good!

 

[AmericanDream]

Over the last two seasons, Adam Boqvist had 993 5v5 minutes and had 5 goals and 4 primary assists.
In 2019-2020 for the Hawks, Olli Maatta had 1028 5v5 minutes and had 4 goals and 4 primary assists.

Quoting Boqvist's points is pointless (ba-dum ching!) for many reasons, let alone the fact that they aren't good!

What hurts Boqvist a bit is seeing what Hughes, Makar, Fox, etc are doing out there. How they are producing and controlling the play offensively...likely unfair to expect him to do that, but it is the reality too.

With Dach, not many 20 year old centers at 6'4 are doing a ton from his class or the draft or two prior either... Kind of strange that your young defenders took longer to groom and hit their prime and centers could jump right in and torch the league...doesn't seem the case anymore with Kakko (winger I know), Hughes, Lafraniere, Kotkaniemi, Turcotte, Zegras, etc all not torching the league right away.

 

[Drumman44]

What hurts Boqvist a bit is seeing what Hughes, Makar, Fox, etc are doing out there. How they are producing and controlling the play offensively...likely unfair to expect him to do that, but it is the reality too.

Fox is two years older and Makar is one year older than Quinn Hughes and Boqvist

 

[jaysoneil]

Dallas is f***ing OLD. They are also currently $2M over the cap. But they're obviously ahead of Chicago?

Winnipeg doesn't even have enough players to play right now. But they've obviously improved? lol

How exactly has St. Louis improved? Tarasenko wants out. Their defense still isn't great. Who will score goals for them?

Saad

 

[AmericanDream]

Fox is two years older and Makar is one year older than Quinn Hughes and Boqvist

They all are significantly outperforming Boqvist in their rookie and sophomore seasons...That is the point, it is being done by numerous youngsters... As I said, might be unfair but it is the reality.

 

[ChiHawk21]

I wouldn't trade either of them

not what i asked.

 

[rielledup]

Breaking Down the Seth Jones Trade and Extension Using Analytics

This article goes into great detail about the weaknesses in Jones game and why he isn't the elite dman people think he is.

 

[ChiHawk21]

Breaking Down the Seth Jones Trade and Extension Using Analytics

This article goes into great detail about the weaknesses in Jones game and why he isn't the elite dman people think he is.

the analitical breakdown of seth jones has boqvists draft spot incorrect.

Play-In Preview #1: Edmonton vs. Chicago sneak peak he had oilers in 5

looking through his "blogs" it looks like this freelance writer has staked his claim a while ago that jones isnt good and now hes trying to prove himself right and was helped out by a poor season last year. there is plenty of good data and insight but a lot of picking and choosing as well.

 

[BK]

the analitical breakdown of seth jones has boqvists draft spot incorrect.

Play-In Preview #1: Edmonton vs. Chicago sneak peak he had oilers in 5

looking through his "blogs" it looks like this freelance writer has staked his claim a while ago that jones isnt good and now hes trying to prove himself right and was helped out by a poor season last year. there is plenty of good data and insight but a lot of picking and choosing as well.

JFresh is a douche. He plays victim a lot.

 

[JaegerDice]

Love JFresh's work. His work on Elite Prospects is great as well.

And it's not like his model is the only one that doesn't rate Seth Jones as highly as the #goodhockeymen of the NHL.

Micah McCurdy is tough by fair:




As is Mike Kelly, who works with SportLogiq, a company that works directly with NHL teams and all their supposed magical way-better-than-public numbers:

These are not the type of numbers that warrant a long-term contract at $9.5 million a year.

Can Seth Jones live up to his massive contract after trade to Blackhawks?

Puck Soup podcast this week had some great discussion about the Blackhawks moves as a whole.

PDOCast had a fantastic conversation with Alison Lukan, who's covered the Blue Jackets for years at the Athletic, they went in deep about the trade as well.

At this point, sides on the Jones argument seem pretty clear. You either love his tools and believe he can put it together, or you believe what his performance over the last 3-5 years says about him.