Thoughts on the Jones deal?

[Dr Salt]

People here seem to not understand that most people in the analytics community have come to the consensus that public models undervalue Kane due to his style of play, and being a guy who has outperformed his xG in 11 of his 14 years of his career. The models are flawed but even with the flaws, if the margin of error is still in the middle on Seth Jones, the most optimistic margin of error is far from encouraging from his contract.

I want to be wrong about Jones, and I want him to be an elite 1D, but the results in Columbus the past couple of seasons have pointed to otherwise.

 

[JaegerDice]

I think Mike Kelly of SportLogiq, which works directly with NHL teams analytic departments, sums it up nicely.

These are not the type of numbers that warrant a long-term contract at $9.5 million a year.

Can Seth Jones live up to his massive contract after trade to Blackhawks?

By their modeling, roughly 20-30% of the defensemen in the league are better than Jones in any of the key areas of defensive play, and as a whole (Adjusted D percentile), 1 in 4 dmen are better than Seth Jones when accounting for deployment and usage.

It's worth a read. Kelly falls in the middle. He doesn't think Jones is as bad as most of the analytics models suggest, but he doesn't think he's elite or likely ever to be either. He basically says that the player has little hope of warranting the price paid in assets and cap.

 

[Pez68]

I think Mike Kelly of SportLogiq, which works directly with NHL teams analytic departments, sums it up nicely.

Can Seth Jones live up to his massive contract after trade to Blackhawks?

By their modeling, roughly 20-30% of the defensemen in the league are better than Jones in any of the key areas of defensive play, and as a whole (Adjusted D percentile), 1 in 4 dmen are better than Seth Jones when accounting for deployment and usage.

It's worth a read. Kelly falls in the middle. He doesn't think Jones is as bad as most of the analytics models suggest, but he doesn't think he's elite or likely ever to be either. He basically says that the player has little hope of warranting the price paid in assets and cap.

It couldn't possibly be that Jones is one of those outliers. An elite player that analytics doesn't properly account for? You know, kind of like Kane? I mean, the margin of error in all of these models is massive. It's why you constantly see a bunch of elite players listed with a bunch of f***ing grinders, who aren't even in a remotely similar category of player.

Let's also see how Jones plays away from Torts....

 

[JaegerDice]

It couldn't possibly be that Jones is one of those outliers. An elite player that analytics doesn't properly account for? You know, kind of like Kane? I mean, the margin of error in all of these models is massive. It's why you constantly see a bunch of elite players listed with a bunch of f***ing grinders, who aren't even in a remotely similar category of player.

It's always possible, just as any player scouted to be the next superstar can end up as a flop.

There is not perfect system for player prediction. If there were, there would be no bad draft picks, no bad contracts, no bad trades, etc. Everybody would have a perfect understanding of every players value at any given moment and into the future.

That said, we can either treat hockey as some magical black box that we'll never understand, or try and iterate, and discuss and evaluation along the way in hopes of getting better (not just as fans, but as a sport overall).

 

[crazyhawk]

Is his two year waited average from the last two years?
If yes then we perhaps have to take into account the state of the team, coaching, chemistry, Columbus exodus issue etc etc.

 

[Pez68]

It's always possible, just as any player scouted to be the next superstar can end up as a flop.

There is not perfect system for player prediction. If there were, there would be no bad draft picks, no bad contracts, no bad trades, etc. Everybody would have a perfect understanding of every players value at any given moment and into the future.

At no point in his career has he ever played with the talent at forward that this team will have. WHO you move the puck to is just as important as how quickly and accurately you move that puck. Again, linemates matter.

 

[JaegerDice]

At no point in his career has he ever played with the talent at forward that this team will have. WHO you move the puck to is just as important as how quickly and accurately you move that puck. Again, linemates matter.

Is his two year waited average from the last two years?
If yes then we perhaps have to take into account the state of the team, coaching, chemistry, Columbus exodus issue etc etc.

The problem is that he doesn't just have to be better than he ever was in Columbus, he has to be MUCH better to make the price paid in assets and cap hit worthwhile. That is a massive ask of any player, to literally be better than you ever have by a huge margin.

 

[wahsnairb]

The problem is that he doesn't just have to be better than he ever was in Columbus, he has to be MUCH better to make the price paid in assets and cap hit worthwhile. That is a massive ask of any player, to literally be better than you ever have by a huge margin.

If he is consistently in the top 5-10 of Norris voting (something he has already done), you’re getting a top 1D and potential elite 1D and that’s more than worth what we gave up and probably worth the contract.

 

[jaysoneil]

The problem is that he doesn't just have to be better than he ever was in Columbus, he has to be MUCH better to make the price paid in assets and cap hit worthwhile. That is a massive ask of any player, to literally be better than you ever have by a huge margin.

Have you pulled any sort of analytical data on the percentage of players that perform above or equal to the assets paid and cap hit?

There's great contracts in the league, I don't question it, but just from a quick glance, I'd guess there are far more poor active contracts.

 

[ChiHawk21]

We are literally going to waste Dach and DeBrincat's careers...

if we give them a chance to win?

 

[Hattrick Kane]

I cannot wait for Hamilton to fall flat on his face when he gets exposed in New Jersey. He simply can’t be the guy.

 

[Kevin Musto]

I cannot wait for Hamilton to fall flat on his face when he gets exposed in New Jersey. He simply can’t be the guy.

 

[Pez68]

Have you pulled any sort of analytical data on the percentage of players that perform above or equal to the assets paid and cap hit?

There's great contracts in the league, I don't question it, but just from a quick glance, I'd guess there are far more poor active contracts.

The analytics for "contract value" are almost completely flawed. Because you have guys like Makar, Fox, McAvoy, Heiskanan, Werenski, etc. who perform like a #1 or top pairing defenseman, while on their ELC or extremely friendly contracts. These guys drive down the "average salary" for a top pairing defender by a ridiculous amount. Slavin is a top pairing defender who only makes....$5.3M. It's almost impossible to gauge "contract value" because of this. Players are worth what the market is willing to pay for them.

 

[thedarkstark]

We are literally going to waste Dach and DeBrincat's careers...

I like Dach a lot and the upside is very evident and massive, but he hasn't proven shit yet. Way too early to be worried about "wasting his career"