Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

[zeke]

definitely not a coaching problem.

it's clearly shatkins' fault.

 

[Discoverer]

This LOL.

Guys go on cold (and hot) streaks all the time. Welcome to baseball. With Grichuk, it just happened to be at the very start of the season, which is actually kind of a regular thing for him and is basically the opposite of Pillar's yearly "holy **** he's an elite hitter" early season trend. The sad part was the amount of people who seriously wanted to give up on a 26 year old league average or better hitter after a ~20 game sample of hitting that would basically qualify him as the worst hitter of all time....because obviously everyone knows that 20 games of at-bats means that you will continue to hit at that level for the remaining 140 games, even when past history dictates otherwise.

The reactions are always worse with players who are new to the team, too. The whole "I don't care what he did with the Cardinals, he's clearly overmatched in the AL and this crappy month is obviously way more meaningful than his previous 1400 plate appearances of above-average production" thing.

 

[Boutette]

Much more likely to be (in the case of Travis) missing significant PA's in each of the last two years (baseball is hard...its harder without reps), and (in the case of Grichuk) a typical cold streak in April\May (he's slashed .183\.257\.354 in April over his career).

But yeah, derpa der, negligence, and other loud noises.

Sure, its just a staggering coincidence that both players spend april hitting .100, go on the DL and come back and are suddenly hitting .300+ each. Total coincidence Just like the coaching didn't put Donaldson in the line up, even though he was clearly not in any condition to play (still isn't, really).

 

[Boutette]

This LOL.

Guys go on cold (and hot) streaks all the time. Welcome to baseball. With Grichuk, it just happened to be at the very start of the season, which is actually kind of a regular thing for him and is basically the opposite of Pillar's yearly "holy **** he's an elite hitter" early season trend. The sad part was the amount of people who seriously wanted to give up on a 26 year old league average or better hitter after a ~20 game sample of hitting that would basically qualify him as the worst hitter of all time....because obviously everyone knows that 20 games of at-bats means that you will continue to hit at that level for the remaining 140 games, even when past history dictates otherwise.

Its rather suspicious that 2 players totally suck for an entire month, finally are put on the dl, come back and are suddenly hitting .300. Yeah, that's totally due to their past history and nothing to do with health issues. If so, why were they every put on the DL then?

 

[phillipmike]

Jays Traded:
Dominic Leone: -0.1 WAR (Nerve issue in his bicep on the 60 DL). Hope he bounces back, one of my favorite relievers over the last few years.
Edward Olivares: His time in A+ ball with the Pads is slightly better than his time with the Jays but as a 22 year old in A+ with a 87 wRC+ he does leave something to be desired. Still a lottery ticket in my opinion but a trade i still make. With Solarte's play he could get you a much better prospect than Olivares if you wanted to deal him.
Conner Greene: 1.34 K:BB (walking close to 6 batters per 9) in AA - has been promoted to AAA and is now a reliever. He will see improvement but so far in 6 appearances he walked 9 batters per 9 innings. I can still see him as a backend MLB reliever.
JB Woodman: He is giving you more on base and power but his strikeout rate has surprisingly been worse - still a good 128 +wRC. He is turning 24 in 6 months and is still in high A ball. Knowing the Cards he probably hits a game 7 WS winning homerun in his rookie season as a 29 year old.
Jared Carkuff: has 2.03 K:BB ratio in A ball. Is now in AAA and i cant see him making any real MLB impact.

Jays Acquired:
Solarte: 1.0 WAR
Gaviglio: 0.6 WAR
Grichuk: 0.5 WAR
Granderson: 0.5 WAR
Diaz: 0.2 WAR
Oh: 0.2 WAR
Clippard: 0.1 WAR
Axford: 0.1 WAR
McGurie: -0.1 WAR
Garcia: -0.1 WAR
Ngoepe: -0.3 WAR
Total: 2.8 WAR

The 2018 acquisitions look better than the 2017 ones. Maybe the Jays should acquire more players with their surnames starting with 'G'. Gurriel has looked good as well though i wised his walk rate from Cuba would translate over.

The one of many things good about Grichuk is that he is on pace for a 1.5-2 WAR season giving you just under league average with his bat. Things can be some much better, his BABIP is extremely low at .215, his walk rate has increased and his K% has gone down. Things are trending very well for him.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Sure, its just a staggering coincidence that both players spend april hitting .100, go on the DL and come back and are suddenly hitting .300+ each. Total coincidence Just like the coaching didn't put Donaldson in the line up, even though he was clearly not in any condition to play (still isn't, really).

Randall Grichuk, career wRC+:
April: 61
May: 90
June: 123
July: 125
August: 134
September: 111

Time between Devon Travis' major league at bats: 298 days (04/06/2017 - 29/03/2018)

There's facts, and then there's FAks. One is steeped in data and logic, and the other is what kids write on instagram posts.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[ShaneFalco]

There's no ducking the numbers: MLB has a bad baseball problem that's only getting worse

In an era when athletes are bigger, stronger and faster, something has gone dreadfully wrong with our glorious pastime.
Players are striking out more than at any time, an alarming 22.5 percent of all plate appearances. We are on pace for more strikeouts than hits – 18,613 strikeouts compared to 18,136 hits entering Wednesday's non-action.

......

The National League, which is expected to adopt the DH within the next five years, has only four teams with more hits than strikeouts.
Yet instead of these offensive woes dragging teams down like they’re the ’62 Mets, they’re hardly a detriment.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have the lowest batting average (.227) in all of baseball, with 135 more strikeouts than hits, and they’re in first place in the NL West.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been shut out a major-league-leading 10 times, produced a paltry .316 on-base percentage, have grounded into more double plays than any team in the NL and they’re in first place in the NL Central.
The Cleveland Indians are the only team in their division, the American League Central, with a winning record, a division so putrid that it has been outscored by a cumulative 230 runs.
A staggering 41 position players who appeared in Tuesday night’s games were batting .200 or below.

While some of the 18 teams whose attendance has declined from a year ago may make up the gap in the summer months, there are five whose attendance has plummeted by more than 200,000 fans. The Toronto Blue Jays, who have a retractable roof, are down a major-league worst 429,665 fans – 11,017 fewer per game.
The game is simply devoid of action, with players striking out, walking or hitting home runs in 34 percent of their plate appearances. So, for more than a third of every game, there’s not a fielder involved in the action.
The average time between balls put in play, according to "Sports Illustrated," is a staggering 3 minutes, 45 seconds.

 

[metafour]

Its rather suspicious that 2 players totally suck for an entire month, finally are put on the dl, come back and are suddenly hitting .300. Yeah, that's totally due to their past history and nothing to do with health issues. If so, why were they every put on the DL then?

Its suspicious that two guys who went down to the minor leagues and had a no-pressure chance to work on whatever holes they were showing against inferior competition, actually succeeded in fixing whatever mechanical issue they had? Guys in slumps struggle to break out of them at the major league level because there is pressure to perform, hence why you send them down so that they can just focus on details instead of worrying about letting their major league teammates down.

Put the tinfoil hat away. Your conspiracy theory doesn't even take into account that Grichuk's CAREER April stats are horrible. So what, was he secretly playing hurt in every season of his career? What a coincidence! Grichuk went to the DL right after an awkward catch in which he was visibly hurt. He looked perfectly healthy prior to that, so pray tell, what was his mystery injury? They didn't just suspiciously throw him onto the DL.

 

[zeke]

There's no ducking the numbers: MLB has a bad baseball problem that's only getting worse

get rid of the mound. make the pitchers throw off flat ground like everyone else.

 

[Boutette]

Its suspicious that two guys who went down to the minor leagues and had a no-pressure chance to work on whatever holes they were showing against inferior competition, actually succeeded in fixing whatever mechanical issue they had? Guys in slumps struggle to break out of them at the major league level because there is pressure to perform, hence why you send them down so that they can just focus on details instead of worrying about letting their major league teammates down.

Put the tinfoil hat away. Your conspiracy theory doesn't even take into account that Grichuk's CAREER April stats are horrible. So what, was he secretly playing hurt in every season of his career? What a coincidence! Grichuk went to the DL right after an awkward catch in which he was visibly hurt. He looked perfectly healthy prior to that, so pray tell, what was his mystery injury? They didn't just suspiciously throw him onto the DL.

Sure, defend the same people who also knew that Donaldson had a "dead arm" but put him out on the field anyways.

 

[Eyedea]

Sure, defend the same people who also knew that Donaldson had a "dead arm" but put him out on the field anyways.

Chris Sale pitched a game back in 2012, had noticeable dead arm, missed a start, then pitched the rest of the season.

Sometimes you just can't know with players and their health.

 

[stickty111]

So far, Shapiro has been much better then AA in the same amount of time.

 

[Boutette]

Chris Sale pitched a game back in 2012, had noticeable dead arm, missed a start, then pitched the rest of the season.

Sometimes you just can't know with players and their health.

And Donaldson was only able to manage 27 spring training at bats, hitting a sparkling .148. But no, nothing to be concerned about, he's doing just fine...

 

[Eyedea]

And Donaldson was only able to manage 27 spring training at bats, hitting a sparkling .148. But no, nothing to be concerned about, he's doing just fine...

Donaldson said Thursday evening that he was dealing with the problem throughout Spring Training. The former American League MVP Award winner had good days and bad days, and there was no real way to predict how he would be feeling from one day to the next. That's one reason why he missed a period of time in early March because of "right shoulder soreness."

If they conducted MRIs, found no structural damage, and he showed better days every now and again, then maybe it's Donaldson's fault for forcing the issue? And now he's decided to take it easier on himself with his calf injury, and for good reason.

 

[dangomon]

Hiraldo 4-4 so far today, I think the DSL is too difficult for him. Conine also picked up his first pro hit today (1B).

 

[Boutette]

If they conducted MRIs, found no structural damage, and he showed better days every now and again, then maybe it's Donaldson's fault for forcing the issue? And now he's decided to take it easier on himself with his calf injury, and for good reason.

If... maybe... great argument.

 

[phillipmike]

Stolen from another forum;

2018 July 2nd IFA: Jays Expected To Sign Orelvis Martinez, Javier D’Orazio, Amell Brazoban

There isn't much to say as we've known for a while now that we are expected to sign Dominican SS/3B Orelvis Martinez to the largest deal of the class ($3+ million+) which would account for the majority of our allocated $4,983,500 bonus pool. Two other names have since been linked to us: Venezuelan C Javier D'Orazio, and Dominican OF Amell Brazoban. Neither player made the BA or MLB top lists (Brazoban got a mention on MLB's "Best of the Rest" list) but their pre-July mention generally indicates that these are ~mid to high six figure signees as well.

The BA and MLB writeups on Orelvis Martinez are easy to find and have been reposted several times so I won't include those here. Instead I'll link the following writeup from the February showcase in the Dominican which actually includes two MLB scout quotes, as reported by César Augusto Márquez for La Vida Baseball

SS Orelvis Martínez
Born Nov. 19, 2001, in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
6-foot-1 / 190 pounds
Projected club: Toronto Blue Jays

Other than Juan Pablo Martínez, no prospect may be more coveted than Orelvis. The Blues Jays, who last summer made a big splash by signing the hard-throwing Brazilian Eric Pardinho, are homing in on another talented teenager. Orelvis is a right-handed hitter with a compact swing, smooth mechanics, good extension and gap power. While not a speedy runner, defensively he has soft hands, an above-average arm and decent range to both sides.

“He is the most talented player coming out this year. He can hit to any part of the field. And he has pop, which is very good for a player who is still developing,” a scout for a team in the American League East told La Vida Baseball.

“Orelvis should take less than five years to make it to the major leagues. The question is whether it will be as a shortstop or, because of his height, as a third baseman,” said a scout for a team in the National League West.

 

[Eyedea]

If... maybe... great argument.

I'm sorry, I can only speculate without given facts. Feel free to live in your world of conspiracies.

 

[zeke]

So far, Shapiro has been much better then AA in the same amount of time.

other than AA building a better team and better system after inheriting a far worse team and far worse system, yes.

 

[dangomon]

Just for fun, Groshans has 3 errors today.

 

[Discoverer]

Sure, its just a staggering coincidence that both players spend april hitting .100, go on the DL and come back and are suddenly hitting .300+ each. Total coincidence Just like the coaching didn't put Donaldson in the line up, even though he was clearly not in any condition to play (still isn't, really).

Since the entire premise of your argument is based on Grichuk and Travis obviously being hurt because they went on the DL and played great when they came back, I think it's important to note that at no point did Devon Travis ever go on the DL. So... I'm not quite sure I understand what this "coincidence" you're seeing is based on.

 

[metafour]

Stolen from another forum;

2018 July 2nd IFA: Jays Expected To Sign Orelvis Martinez, Javier D’Orazio, Amell Brazoban

That -MetA4- on RealGM sure is some poster.....

 

[phillipmike]

That -MetA4- on RealGM sure is some poster.....

 

[Muston Atthews]

other than AA building a better team and better system after inheriting a far worse team and far worse system, yes.

In less time or