Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

[Discoverer]

He got full slot value at his pick.

Imagine that, everything worked out and everyone signed for what they were expected to sign for.

Yep. It almost always works out that way. It doesn't make your claim that no one ever allows picks from the top three rounds to go unsigned anymore any less wrong, but it's still nice to see.

 

[metafour]

Yep. It almost always works out that way. It doesn't make your claim that no one ever allows picks from the top three rounds to go unsigned anymore any less wrong, but it's still nice to see.

You never even backed up your claim. You named a couple guys who didn't sign, but were they injury/medical cases? My statement was not wrong: no one drafts players who they think will only MAYBE sign.

 

[metafour]

Kiley McDaniel is kind of backing up Law's statement from a week or two ago that Kevin Smith's defense apparently isn't as good as we would have hoped it to be :\

jays
12:36
Kevin Smith has looked VERY good all year and hasn't lost a step after his A+ promotion. Do you see him as a big mover on offseason prospect lists? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel
12:37
Saw him briefly last week and he's really shortened up the swing from college. He's fine but not great at SS. One scout compared him to Jordy Mercer, who has had a nice run of being a 45 or 50 FV. That would be a very nice find in the 4th round.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

All the shade from Kiley.

Important to note that Jordy Mercer has had a wRC+ above 125 once in his career(repeating Triple-A for the 3rd time at the age of 26). He's also had a WARP above 4....never.

If the comparison is glove only, then that makes sense.

 

[metafour]

Teo
1:01
Thoughts on Adam Kloffenstein? What's his ceiling A mid-rotation guy? He seems pretty filled out for a HS player st 6'5 220, so I'm wondering how much more projection or velocity there still is left.

Kiley McDaniel
1:02
There's some and he's really loose and athletic, one scout told me he thinks he'll throw 100 in a couple years. Yeah mid rotation upside.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

More from Kiley Minogue

Thoughts on Adam Kloffenstein? What's his ceiling A mid-rotation guy? He seems pretty filled out for a HS player st 6'5 220, so I'm wondering how much more projection or velocity there still is left.

There's some and he's really loose and athletic, one scout told me he thinks he'll throw 100 in a couple years. Yeah mid rotation upside.

Edit: METAFOOOOOOUUUUURRRRRR!

 

[zeke]

Kiley McDaniel is kind of backing up Law's statement from a week or two ago that Kevin Smith's defense apparently isn't as good as we would have hoped it to be :\

both Law and Kiley were furious that the Jays apparently "shortened the strides" of Sanchez and Hoffman, too.

 

[hoc123]

Kiley McDaniel is kind of backing up Law's statement from a week or two ago that Kevin Smith's defense apparently isn't as good as we would have hoped it to be :\

Honestly that makes sense. It did always seem fishy that the Jays got a shortstop with good defense that could hit for power in the 4'th round.

 

[Discoverer]

You never even backed up your claim. You named a couple guys who didn't sign, but were they injury/medical cases? My statement was not wrong: no one drafts players who they think will only MAYBE sign.

I listed the teams who, in addition to the Blue Jays, have failed to sign a pick from the first three rounds in the last five years. I thought that was sufficient. But here's some more detail:

Marlins - Matt Krook (injury), Ben DeLuzio
Astros - Brady Aiken (injury)
Cardinals - Trevor Megill
Dodgers - Kyle Funkhouser
Orioles - Jonathan Hughes
Twins - Kyle Cody
Pirates - Nick Lodolo
Rays - Drew Rasmussen (was coming off TJ, but no injury the team wasn't aware of well before the draft)

The bolded had no medical issues, though you could switch Rasmussen over to the "injured" side if you want since he was coming off Tommy John, but that's an injury the team was fully aware of before the draft, so it's not like it just popped up in the medicals. Regardless, once or twice per year, a team fails to sign one of their early picks just because they can't come to an agreement. Considering we're talking about ~100 or so picks per year, it's not particularly common, but it happens every year.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Honestly that makes sense. It did always seem fishy that the Jays got a shortstop with good defense that could hit for power in the 4'th round.

Yeah, that never happens.

No pressure, Giants, but 10 years ago, you drafted Brandon Crawford in the 4th round.

 

[Discoverer]

Honestly that makes sense. It did always seem fishy that the Jays got a shortstop with good defense that could hit for power in the 4'th round.

It seems fishy that they took the best player in the draft 66th overall the year before, and that happened.

 

[zeke]

Honestly that makes sense. It did always seem fishy that the Jays got a shortstop with good defense that could hit for power in the 4'th round.

his college performance at the plate didn't dictate him going any higher than he did.

his performance in his first pro year didn't show to be any better than that, either.

 

[hoc123]

It seems fishy that they took the best player in the draft 66th overall the year before, and that happened.

Yeah, that never happens.

No pressure, Giants, but 10 years ago, you drafted Brandon Crawford in the 4th round.

I'm talking about how he was seen at the time of the draft. Crawford was seen as a defense first shortstop who likely wouldn't hit that much, and Bichette was seen as a player who would likely move to 2'nd or third base and who had questions about his hit tool "which in my mind was fairly ridiculous". From what I saw Smith was seen as a good defensive shortstop with some power potential at the draft. I'm not saying Smith can't develop into that type of player, but having that type of player available in the 4'th round always seemed weird.

 

[hoc123]

his college performance at the plate didn't dictate him going any higher than he did.

his performance in his first pro year didn't show to be any better than that, either.

He did preform the year before, and in the cape cod league, so it's not like he had never shown good production before.

 

[zeke]

He did preform the year before, and in the cape cod league, so it's not like he had never shown good production before.

he had a good final year in college - but with poor bb/k numbers. and that followed up after an awful 2nd year where he didn't even look like a prospect at all.

 

[Eyedea]

And 12 ground outs. He was absolutely masterful.

I recommend Milb.tv to everyone. Its really nice being able to watch start to start (or game by game for the position players). Zeuch has really changed my mind the last few starts. Hitters have an extremely difficult time squaring up his sinker. The curveball has looked better as well. Reminds me a bit of Biagini's curve (big, loopy, overhand). He throws it to lefties often when he gets ahead (depending on the umpires strikezone, he can steal strikes on the outside corner. Doubtful it would be consistently effective in the MLB). I prefer the slider, personally.

Very, very encouraged overall. A month ago, he was a 45FV for me. After the last month, he's an easy 50FV. If the slider can be consistently employed as a plus offering, he's a 55FV and major league ready.

Borucki looked great as well against what amounts to a crappy major league lineup (comparable to the Marlins). He works very well with Danny Jansen. The stuff is not overwhelming. Reminds me a bit of Kyle Freeland.

Welcome to the fan club, and remember, love thy Zeuch.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm talking about how he was seen at the time of the draft. Crawford was seen as a defense first shortstop who likely wouldn't hit that much, and Bichette was seen as a player who would likely move to 2'nd or third base and who had questions about his hit tool "which in my mind was fairly ridiculous". From what I saw Smith was seen as a good defensive shortstop with some power potential at the draft. I'm not saying Smith can't develop into that type of player, but having that type of player available in the 4'th round always seemed weird.

Well, he had a pretty pronounced hole in his swing. And his college statistics were good, not great. Pretty much fit just fine in the 4th round given the profile.

I think the main message is, and should be, that the draft is a crap shoot, and you essentially throw out the rounds and the rankings pretty much as soon as the players enter pro-ball.

 

[hoc123]

Well, he had a pretty pronounced hole in his swing. And his college statistics were good, not great. Pretty much fit just fine in the 4th round given the profile.

I think the main message is, and should be, that the draft is a crap shoot, and you essentially throw out the rounds and the rankings pretty much as soon as the players enter pro-ball.

I agree with that, especially when it's a year or so after the draft. It's a big reason why I'm down on Warmoth.

 

[Garlando]

Going Deep: Danny Jansen Should Be On Your Radar

 

[Eyedea]

Kinda sucks that all of our top guys are righties. Would be nice for a Biggio/Conine/McGuire/Tellez to become a piece.

 

[FreeBird]

Honestly that makes sense. It did always seem fishy that the Jays got a shortstop with good defense that could hit for power in the 4'th round.

They drafted one last year in the 1st round and he can't hit Sh*t and he's no Ozzie Smith with the glove either.

 

[FreeBird]

Well we ever see the 23 million $$ man in a Jays uniform again. Just sayin I'm kind of loosing my Patience.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Never in doubt but Im glad to see Conine officially put pen to paper.

 

[aingefan]

System’s looking good....can’t wait to see it after the sell off.
Hoping Alford and Pompey and Tellez pick it up as the season moves along, would be a nice development and make the last couple of months more fun to follow.
Same with Travis and Grichuk, strong finishes would be real nice.

 

[metafour]

Eric Pardinho alert in Bluefield tonight.​