Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by The Nemesis, Mar 28, 2018.

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  1. TheMadHatTrick Registered User

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    Add Garcia to that. He's small but has nasty stuff.
     
  2. hoc123 Registered User

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    I would say Matt Garza makes for a better comparison to Happ. Mid Rotation lefty who is the best SP rental avilable on the market. Darvish had more value last year then Happ does this year. While his stats weren't as good as Happ's, he had a history of being a top of the rotation guy, and people were in love with his spin rates. That's why he got 6/126M in the free agent market. I think people are overestimating the return Happ will get. I'm guessing Top 100 prospect, Top 15 Organization prospect (would be top 15 in an average farm system), and a lottery ticket.

    As for Garcia, I agree, someone will have to pitch, and he's likely a player who can pass through the August trade waivers.
     
  3. zeke The Dube Abides

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    matt garza? what?
     
  4. GoonieFace Registered User

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    [QUOTE="hoc123, post: 147141133, member: 220559"]I would say Matt Garza makes for a better comparison to Happ. Mid Rotation lefty who is the best SP rental avilable on the market. Darvish had more value last year then Happ does this year. While his stats weren't as good as Happ's, he had a history of being a top of the rotation guy, and people were in love with his spin rates. That's why he got 6/126M in the free agent market. I think people are overestimating the return Happ will get. I'm guessing Top 100 prospect, Top 15 Organization prospect (would be top 15 in an average farm system), and a lottery ticket.

    As for Garcia, I agree, someone will have to pitch, and he's likely a player who can pass through the August trade waivers.[/QUOTE]

    :help::huh:
     
  5. Discoverer Registered User

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    That estimated return is pretty damn close to what the Rangers got for Darvish, though.

    Regardless... Happ isn't a mid-rotation lefty. Over the last three calendar years, he's 23rd in all of baseball in pitching fWAR.

    During the season of the trade:
    Garza: 85 ERA-, 100 FIP-
    Darvish: 88 ERA-, 89 FIP-
    Happ: 85 ERA-, 84 FIP-

    In the 1.5 seasons prior to the trade:
    Garza: 92 ERA-, 104 FIP-
    Darvish: 83 ERA-, 81 FIP-
    Happ: 82 ERA-, 84 FIP-

    At worst, Happ is exactly on par with Darvish and at least a tier above Garza. If you want to look at a longer track record, you can add on another season and Happ's numbers don't get any worse (79 ERA- and 88 FIP-), while Darvish's stay the same because he missed the entire 2015 season.

    There may be a slight increase in Darvish's value due to name recognition and reputation, but I don't think many teams evaluate players that way anymore. To give Darvish a "reputation" bump, teams would have to be looking at what he did 3+ years prior to the trade. I don't think they do that very much.
     
  6. Longshot Registered User

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    Uh, oh. Aaron Sanchez has a boo boo on his finger. I guess we can expect him to spend the rest of the season on the DL... :sarcasm:
     
  7. Longshot Registered User

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    Seriously, how is that even possible?
     
  8. phillipmike Registered User

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  9. hoc123 Registered User

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    I meant in terms of trade value. When he was traded to the Rangers in 2013.
     
  10. zeke The Dube Abides

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    let's take a look at what exactly Happ has done recently.

    1 Calendar Yrs: 33gs, 79era-, 83fip-, 90xfip-, 4.2war/32gs
    2 Calendar Yrs: 58gs, 78era-, 83fip-, 88xfip-, 4.2war/32gs

    1 Calendar Yrs: 4.3fwar (15th MLB), 4.2ra9war (22nd MLB)
    2 Calendar Yrs: 7.2fwar (15th MLB), 8.0ra9war (14th MLB)

    Much to my egg-faced surprise, the guy has consistently been a legit #1SP in baseball for a good while now. Not quite an "Ace", but a clearcut top-30 guy and arguably top-20.
     
  11. Eyedea The Legend Continues

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    Expecting to read from Boutette that this is clearly the medical staff's fault.
     
  12. zeke The Dube Abides

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    #HighPerformanceDepartment
     
  13. dredeye BJ Elitist/Hipster

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    Oh really? I noticed a lot of their pitchers have some control issue. Lots of high walk rates. Didn’t know they weren’t trending the right direction though
     
  14. phillipmike Registered User

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    Looks like MLB did a top 100 and team re-rank.

    Top 100: MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

    Jays: MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

    Vladdy (2), Bo (9), Alford (41) and Pearson (86).

    The Jays list is fine from 1-4 but the rest is strange. Warmoth (5) moved ahead of Jansen (6). Urena is still pretty high at (11), Smith (18) and Biggio (19) still seem low. Looks like Diaz isnt there.

    Its possible they only re-ranked the players that made the top 100 and will do the rest later.
     
  15. zeke The Dube Abides

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    Jansen is the best hitter in all of AAA at age 23.

    Even if he couldn't catch (which he can), he should be a top-100 prospect.
     
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  16. Diamond Joe Quimby A$AP Joffrey

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    I get sleeping on Smith given the need for a larger sample size.

    But Jansen.....really?
     
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  17. Glenn Isildur Healy Registered User

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    That list is pretty bad. I would make the same assumption that they haven't bothered to re-rank the list other than the top 100. Although, Jansen should be in the top 100 based on his performance and Alford is not the 41st best prospect based on his performance and health.

    Warmoth hasn't done anything other than being drafted high to show he's a better prospect than Smith and Biggio is definitely not our 19th best prospect.
     
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  18. Discoverer Registered User

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    22-year-old catcher at A+ puts up a 184 wRC+ in 136 plate appearances: "Small sample, repeating a level, not that young for his level."
    22-year-old catcher at AA puts up a 121 wRC+ in 210 plate appearances, improves BB and K rates: "Small sample, overall numbers not as impressive as they were in A+, power numbers decreased."
    22-year-old catcher at AAA puts up a 172 wRC+ in 78 plate appearances, improves BB and K rates again, improves power numbers: "Small sample."
    23-year-old catcher at AAA puts up a 160 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, maintains fantastic BB and K rates and solid power: "He's just not that great, ok?"

    I don't expect he'll get a whole lot of recognition until he starts putting up awesome numbers in the majors.
     
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  19. Brock Boeser Laser Show Registered User

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    Shame we don't have AA.

    He would never mismanage a 20 year old pitcher dealing with shoulder issues.
     
  20. FreeBird Registered User

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    All AA's draft picks are in Atlanta, and he never chose any of them.
     
  21. The Nemesis Semper Tyrannus

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    People aren't being taught how to appreciate good catchers. This message has been brought to you by JP Arencibia. :sarcasm:

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Boutette Been there done that

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    Your claiming it was a good idea Blue Jays staff to put him on the mound? Seriously?
     
  23. trellaine201 Registered User

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    I “was” just watching Jeff Blair taking calls from BJ fans. Is Jeff Blair ok? Does he have some emotional issues? He just flipped out on two callers in a row. I turned the channel .
     
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  24. Eyedea The Legend Continues

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    What a twist
     
  25. zeke The Dube Abides

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    he wouldn't pretend he had magic health secrets, at least.
     
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