Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

hoc123

Registered User
Feb 23, 2014
4,004
596
Darvish last year remains a solid comp for Happ, though Happ is having a far better season. Top 50 and a couple lottery tickets makes perfect sense.

As for Garcia, I completely agree. You gain nothing by releasing him, and you lose the chance that he may turn it around. Let him plug away and see what happens and if he doesn't figure it out then throw him in the pen and see if that works.

I would say Matt Garza makes for a better comparison to Happ. Mid Rotation lefty who is the best SP rental avilable on the market. Darvish had more value last year then Happ does this year. While his stats weren't as good as Happ's, he had a history of being a top of the rotation guy, and people were in love with his spin rates. That's why he got 6/126M in the free agent market. I think people are overestimating the return Happ will get. I'm guessing Top 100 prospect, Top 15 Organization prospect (would be top 15 in an average farm system), and a lottery ticket.

As for Garcia, I agree, someone will have to pitch, and he's likely a player who can pass through the August trade waivers.
 

GoonieFace

Registered User
Jun 24, 2013
7,032
6,708
The Matrix
[QUOTE="hoc123, post: 147141133, member: 220559"]I would say Matt Garza makes for a better comparison to Happ. Mid Rotation lefty who is the best SP rental avilable on the market. Darvish had more value last year then Happ does this year. While his stats weren't as good as Happ's, he had a history of being a top of the rotation guy, and people were in love with his spin rates. That's why he got 6/126M in the free agent market. I think people are overestimating the return Happ will get. I'm guessing Top 100 prospect, Top 15 Organization prospect (would be top 15 in an average farm system), and a lottery ticket.

As for Garcia, I agree, someone will have to pitch, and he's likely a player who can pass through the August trade waivers.[/QUOTE]

:help::huh:
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
10,735
5,873
I would say Matt Garza makes for a better comparison to Happ. Mid Rotation lefty who is the best SP rental avilable on the market. Darvish had more value last year then Happ does this year. While his stats weren't as good as Happ's, he had a history of being a top of the rotation guy, and people were in love with his spin rates. That's why he got 6/126M in the free agent market. I think people are overestimating the return Happ will get. I'm guessing Top 100 prospect, Top 15 Organization prospect (would be top 15 in an average farm system), and a lottery ticket.

As for Garcia, I agree, someone will have to pitch, and he's likely a player who can pass through the August trade waivers.

That estimated return is pretty damn close to what the Rangers got for Darvish, though.

Regardless... Happ isn't a mid-rotation lefty. Over the last three calendar years, he's 23rd in all of baseball in pitching fWAR.

During the season of the trade:
Garza: 85 ERA-, 100 FIP-
Darvish: 88 ERA-, 89 FIP-
Happ: 85 ERA-, 84 FIP-

In the 1.5 seasons prior to the trade:
Garza: 92 ERA-, 104 FIP-
Darvish: 83 ERA-, 81 FIP-
Happ: 82 ERA-, 84 FIP-

At worst, Happ is exactly on par with Darvish and at least a tier above Garza. If you want to look at a longer track record, you can add on another season and Happ's numbers don't get any worse (79 ERA- and 88 FIP-), while Darvish's stay the same because he missed the entire 2015 season.

There may be a slight increase in Darvish's value due to name recognition and reputation, but I don't think many teams evaluate players that way anymore. To give Darvish a "reputation" bump, teams would have to be looking at what he did 3+ years prior to the trade. I don't think they do that very much.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
let's take a look at what exactly Happ has done recently.

1 Calendar Yrs: 33gs, 79era-, 83fip-, 90xfip-, 4.2war/32gs
2 Calendar Yrs: 58gs, 78era-, 83fip-, 88xfip-, 4.2war/32gs

1 Calendar Yrs: 4.3fwar (15th MLB), 4.2ra9war (22nd MLB)
2 Calendar Yrs: 7.2fwar (15th MLB), 8.0ra9war (14th MLB)

Much to my egg-faced surprise, the guy has consistently been a legit #1SP in baseball for a good while now. Not quite an "Ace", but a clearcut top-30 guy and arguably top-20.
 

dredeye

BJ Elitist/Hipster
Mar 3, 2008
27,055
2,751
All those "higher end" prospects seem to be trending in not so good directions.
Oh really? I noticed a lot of their pitchers have some control issue. Lots of high walk rates. Didn’t know they weren’t trending the right direction though
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,480
8,272
Looks like MLB did a top 100 and team re-rank.

Top 100: MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

Jays: MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

Vladdy (2), Bo (9), Alford (41) and Pearson (86).

The Jays list is fine from 1-4 but the rest is strange. Warmoth (5) moved ahead of Jansen (6). Urena is still pretty high at (11), Smith (18) and Biggio (19) still seem low. Looks like Diaz isnt there.

Its possible they only re-ranked the players that made the top 100 and will do the rest later.
 

Glenn Isildur Healy

Registered User
Oct 8, 2013
4,524
686
CBC Studios
Looks like MLB did a top 100 and team re-rank.

Top 100: MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

Jays: MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

Vladdy (2), Bo (9), Alford (41) and Pearson (86).

The Jays list is fine from 1-4 but the rest is strange. Warmoth (5) moved ahead of Jansen (6). Urena is still pretty high at (11), Smith (18) and Biggio (19) still seem low. Looks like Diaz isnt there.

Its possible they only re-ranked the players that made the top 100 and will do the rest later.

That list is pretty bad. I would make the same assumption that they haven't bothered to re-rank the list other than the top 100. Although, Jansen should be in the top 100 based on his performance and Alford is not the 41st best prospect based on his performance and health.

Warmoth hasn't done anything other than being drafted high to show he's a better prospect than Smith and Biggio is definitely not our 19th best prospect.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheMadHatTrick

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
10,735
5,873
I get sleeping on Smith given the need for a larger sample size.

But Jansen.....really?

22-year-old catcher at A+ puts up a 184 wRC+ in 136 plate appearances: "Small sample, repeating a level, not that young for his level."
22-year-old catcher at AA puts up a 121 wRC+ in 210 plate appearances, improves BB and K rates: "Small sample, overall numbers not as impressive as they were in A+, power numbers decreased."
22-year-old catcher at AAA puts up a 172 wRC+ in 78 plate appearances, improves BB and K rates again, improves power numbers: "Small sample."
23-year-old catcher at AAA puts up a 160 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, maintains fantastic BB and K rates and solid power: "He's just not that great, ok?"

I don't expect he'll get a whole lot of recognition until he starts putting up awesome numbers in the majors.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Diamond Joe Quimby

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
87,847
31,026
Langley, BC
22-year-old catcher at A+ puts up a 184 wRC+ in 136 plate appearances: "Small sample, repeating a level, not that young for his level."
22-year-old catcher at AA puts up a 121 wRC+ in 210 plate appearances, improves BB and K rates: "Small sample, overall numbers not as impressive as they were in A+, power numbers decreased."
22-year-old catcher at AAA puts up a 172 wRC+ in 78 plate appearances, improves BB and K rates again, improves power numbers: "Small sample."
23-year-old catcher at AAA puts up a 160 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, maintains fantastic BB and K rates and solid power: "He's just not that great, ok?"

I don't expect he'll get a whole lot of recognition until he starts putting up awesome numbers in the majors.


People aren't being taught how to appreciate good catchers. This message has been brought to you by JP Arencibia. :sarcasm:

arencibia.jpg
 

trellaine201

Registered User
Feb 10, 2010
19,667
2,694
Left coast
I “was” just watching Jeff Blair taking calls from BJ fans. Is Jeff Blair ok? Does he have some emotional issues? He just flipped out on two callers in a row. I turned the channel .
 
  • Like
Reactions: Anthrax442
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->