The "Tanking" And/Or Other Roster Moves Discussion Thread

[CBJWerenski8]

Jackets now tied for 6th in Metro with the Rangers who have 2 games in hand. One point ahead of 8th place NJ who also have 2 games in hand. 5 points out of a playoff spot. Just wait till the tank is official.

We were in like first place in the division this time last year (or at least up there) and submarined to the 8th seed. Standings at this point don't mean anything. Just keep within distance (under 10 points) and we're still alive.

If the 2nd wild card gets to be 10+ points away, then yeah, the goose is cooked.

 

[blahblah]

Why even post at all then?

because it’s fun. No matter how little of it you have.

I suspect you missed the key line of the response, we can then speculate on what moves we might make. It's not "fun" to say we need to tank. That's just a lack of critical thinking. It's not "fun" to say we "need" our Crosby. Every fan wants that. You are just stating the obvious. It's not "fun" to say we would likely need the 1st or 2nd pick overall, in the right year, to get that player. Again that takes no thought, it's self evident.

If you want to talk about roster players and who we might consider moving, cool. Personally I'll wait until closer to the deadline. Until then we won't know what direction the team would even consider going. I don't like talking about stuff from a position of ignorance. I like as much information as possible.

There are plenty of things to compl... err talk about without going down your rabbit hole.

Later and good luck.

 

[Cowumbus]

I suspect you missed the key line of the response, we can then speculate on what moves we might make. It's not "fun" to say we need to tank. That's just a lack of critical thinking. It's not "fun" to say we "need" our Crosby. Every fan wants that. You are just stating the obvious. It's not "fun" to say we would likely need the 1st or 2nd pick overall, in the right year, to get that player. Again that takes no thought, it's self evident.

If you want to talk about roster players and who we might consider moving, cool. Personally I'll wait until closer to the deadline. Until then we won't know what direction the team would even consider going. I don't like talking about stuff from a position of ignorance. I like as much information as possible.

There are plenty of things to compl... err talk about without going down your rabbit hole.

Later and good luck.

Edit: Not even worth it. Good luck.

 

[EDM]

That is the $64,000 question ! We

 

[thebus88]

And then the team won’t even go with the consensus pick and will take some center who spends another year in juniors and everyone suffers for another year.

"Pierre....Luke.....huh?!"

Thread has potential. Am a fan.



I'll edit also, I lied, am not a fan. Thread has given me a headache.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Special teams are really going to have to pick it up. An average team PK% + PP%=100. The CBJ are at 77.5+ 13.5=91. The current performance is at best lottery pick level.

As a point of reference, the LA Kings were the league worst at 92.3 last year and the CBJ were at 100.4. Tampa was at 113.2 which was insane good.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

"Pierre....Luke.....huh?!"

Thread has potential. Am a fan.



I'll edit also, I lied, am not a fan. Thread has given me a headache.

While I think this thread is ridiculous, I find it funny you were nowhere to be found the last 5 games, and yet after they win, here you are.

 

[Cowumbus]

We have 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks currently.

 

[domi28]

We are still an above-average team.

Ummm...
28th in goals for
24th in goals against
24 in the standings
There's nothing above average about this team.

As for the tanking part I think there is a big difference between outright tanking (ala the Penguins icing the worst possible lineup possible to the point of sending starters down to their AHL team) and asset management. Projecting out 3-4 years when this team should be close to a contender and identifying the players who will likely be past their primes (Foligno, Savard, Nash, maybe Atkinson, Nyquist, etc) and getting assets for them now in the form of picks and prospects is good asset management. Use those picks and prospects when the time comes to acquire a piece or two to make this team better if their close in 3-4 years. Of course that might create a big problem when loyalty has been a big theme this season. It wouldn't look too good to preach loyalty then turn around and ask guys to waive their NTCs.

I'm fine with not doing anything for the next couple months and seeing where this team is around the first of the year and go from there. If they're close to a playoff spot ride things out and see what happens. If they're out of it start shopping around the vets and see what Jarmo can get.

 

[majormajor]

The sad reality is the Penguins are the Penguins because they got top 3 picks 3 years in a row. The blackhawks are who they are because they got Kane a Toews in back to back years. The Capitals got Ovi and Backstrom in a 3 year span

The CBJ always seem to draft outside the top 5 even they’ve generally been terrible for most of their existence.

We have 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks currently.

The Jackets have drafted 1st (Nash), 2nd (Murray), 3rd (Dubois), and 4th three times now (Klesla, Zherdev, Johansen).

As Viqsi has helpfully shown, most top 3 picks aren't franchise type players. You need a lot of luck to get a top 3 pick (under the current rules even the last overall team has only a 49% chance of getting a top 3 pick), and you need more luck / good drafting to get a good top 3 pick. The teams picking at the top in recent years (Edmonton, Buffalo, New Jersey, Florida, etc..) haven't been able to turn it around following their top picks.

Going to be a long rebuild. Unless you find that very rare generational talent at #1 overall, it is usually at least 2-3 years after a draft before anyone picked really matters to wins and losses in a meaningful way. Play the young guys if you don't think you are doing damage to their development and finish near the bottom for the next 3-4 years and see where you are. Unfortunately, that might mean by the time you can see some real progress you will be dealing Jones and Werenski for more draft picks and youth but not sure there is a better or faster way when no relevant UFA is coming to Columbus.

Probably still at the bottom. That's what has happened to teams that finished at the bottom in recent years, they stayed there.

 

[majormajor]

If we could get RNH out of EDM ...

I'm a big Oilers fan Dema, let me tell you that 5 v 5 RNH is no better than Foligno at center ice. He's not an answer at 2C, he just doesn't score much at evens. He might be a big help to the powerplay though, not sure.

Edit: totally forgot that he was once a 1st OA pick. That's pretty hilarious for this thread. Imagine the Jackets tanking, getting 1st OA, and ending up with a second liner.

 

[majormajor]

The team's playoff chances have certainly dwindled but I'm not convinced that they're nearly as bad as some here say. The stats that usually point to a team being a continued cellar-dweller are poor possession / shots type of stats. The stats that usually point towards (positive) regression are low shooting percentages, and uncharacteristic slumps. The Jackets are suffering from the kind of suck that is usually temporary.

Corsi% - 50%
Shots% - 53%
Expected Goals% - 53%
Results - 45%

What's more indicative of regression is 6% shooting at 5 v 5. It will not stay that low, it doesn't for any team. With last years 9% shooting (or 8%) they'd be back to being a plus team at evens. Last year Bjorkstrand, Atkinson, and Anderson combined for 90+ goals, probably the highest-scoring group of RW's in the league. I expected closer to 70 this year. They're on pace for 36 combined this year. It's a smart bet that they will score far more than that amount.

That still doesn't make them an above average team, not with a PP like this. They can go positive at evens with average luck, but they're minus 7 at special teams. I'd be happy if I woke up tomorrow and I read that the coaches have been fired. (Torts and Larsen).

 

[majormajor]

Have to wonder what Bemstrom, Milano, and Bjorkstrand would look like playing in Vegas system . How Torts watched Karlsson in practice every day , and determined he should play a checking center role is beyond baffling . Kid has it all , speed , passing ability , shot , and hockey sense . Oh well , 1 game closer to the inevitable coaching change .

He was a depth guy in Anaheim's system when Jarmo got him for the soon to be retired Wiz (we got our money's worth on that trade). Anaheim clearly didn't consider him a top talent.

Then Karlsson scored zero goals and zero assists when he was assigned to Bednar (your favorite coach!) and the Monsters for 15 games.


No, no idea how Torts came to the conclusion that Karlsson should be a checking center.

Also there's plenty of guys with great skills who never amount to jack squat. You can find them all over the AHL. The skill gap between a top liner and a third liner is very small in the NHL. You usually can't tell who plays on what line by what they do in practice.

Convinced? You won't bring up this Karlsson thing over and over again every few weeks for the rest of your life?

 

[Viqsi]

The teams picking at the top in recent years (Edmonton, Buffalo, New Jersey, Florida, etc..) haven't been able to turn it around following their top picks.

Or in past years, for that matter - this isn't Florida's first rodeo at the bottom, and Atlanta will never again have the chance to turn it around. And if the Jackets can't be considered to have "turned it around", then I guess that also brings down teams like the Islanders.

 

[EspenK]

Or in past years, for that matter - this isn't Florida's first rodeo at the bottom, and Atlanta will never again have the chance to turn it around. And if the Jackets can't be considered to have "turned it around", then I guess that also brings down teams like the Islanders.

This post is a bit incomprehensible to me. Florida is at 21 points in 4th place in their division and the Islanders are 2nd in theirs which is about where they finished last year. Obviously the Jackets have turned it around. Just in the wrong direction.

 

[Viqsi]

This post is a bit incomprehensible to me. Florida is at 21 points in 4th place in their division and the Islanders are 2nd in theirs which is about where they finished last year. Obviously the Jackets have turned it around. Just in the wrong direction.

This is a debate about the historical efficacy of tanking, not about how teams are doing for the 2019-2020 season. It would be disingenuous to debate the current season in that context, as said season has not yet been completed and so we do not know what the results are going to be.

And if anyone starts going on about "we can already tell" based on what's happened so far I'm just going to post that linear extrapolation comic again.

 

[majormajor]

This post is a bit incomprehensible to me. Florida is at 21 points in 4th place in their division and the Islanders are 2nd in theirs which is about where they finished last year. Obviously the Jackets have turned it around. Just in the wrong direction.

Yes, and the Jackets had better records than either team for each of the last 3 years, except for last year when the Islanders had one more win. So nine years after the Islanders last picked 1st OA, and in the season following losing their 1st OA savior for nothing, they managed to inch ahead. Congrats! And this year is year 6 since the Panthers last picked 1st OA. It's very early but it looks like they might finish ahead of the Jackets this year. Congrats! Tanking works wonderfully!

 

[Cowumbus]

The Jackets have drafted 1st (Nash), 2nd (Murray), 3rd (Dubois), and 4th three times now (Klesla, Zherdev, Johansen).

As Viqsi has helpfully shown, most top 3 picks aren't franchise type players. You need a lot of luck to get a top 3 pick (under the current rules even the last overall team has only a 49% chance of getting a top 3 pick), and you need more luck / good drafting to get a good top 3 pick. The teams picking at the top in recent years (Edmonton, Buffalo, New Jersey, Florida, etc..) haven't been able to turn it around following their top picks.



Probably still at the bottom. That's what has happened to teams that finished at the bottom in recent years, they stayed there.

2003
1 Fluery Franchise
2 Staal Franchise
3 Horton
2004
1 Ovi Franchise
2 Malkin Franchise
3 Barber
2005
1 Crosby Franchise
2 Ryan
3 Johnson
2006
1 Johnson
2 Staal
3 Toews Franchise
4. Backstrom Franchise
5 Kessel Franchise
2007
1 Kane Franchise
2 JVR
3 Turris
2008
1 Stamkos Franchise
2 Doughty Franchise
3 Bogosian
2009
1 Tavares Franchise
2 Hedman Franchise
3 Duchene Franchise
2010
1. Hall Franchise
2. Seguin Franchise
3. Gudbranson
4. Johansen
2011
1. RNH
2. Landeskog Franchise
3. Huberdeau
2012
1. Yakupov
2. Murray
3. Galchenyuk
2013
1 Mackinnon Franchise
2 Barkov Franchise
3 Drouin Franchise
4 Jones Franchise
2014
1. Ekblad Franchise
2. Reinhart
3 Draisaitl Franchise
4. Bennet
2015
1. McDavid Franchise
2. Eichel Franchise
3. Strome
4. Marner Franchise
2016
1. Matthews Franchise
2. Laine Franchise
3. PLD Franchise

29/48, 60%

And I don’t get your point... you’re saying we drafted in the top5 x amount of times but look... look at where our franchise players (PLD and Nash) Were drafted... you’re proving my point. Johansen and Zherdev might be top5-10 players to ever play for the franchise... both drafted in the top 5 lolololililiol

 

[majormajor]

2003
1 Fluery Franchise
2 Staal Franchise
3 Horton
2004
1 Ovi Franchise
2 Malkin Franchise
3 Barber
2005
1 Crosby Franchise
2 Ryan
3 Johnson
2006
1 Johnson
2 Staal
3 Toews Franchise
4. Backstrom Franchise
5 Kessel Franchise
2007
1 Kane Franchise
2 JVR
3 Turris
2008
1 Stamkos Franchise
2 Doughty Franchise
3 Bogosian
2009
1 Tavares Franchise
2 Hedman Franchise
3 Duchene Franchise
2010
1. Hall Franchise
2. Seguin Franchise
3. Gudbranson
4. Johansen
2011
1. RNH
2. Landeskog Franchise
3. Huberdeau
2012
1. Yakupov
2. Murray
3. Galchenyuk
2013
1 Mackinnon Franchise
2 Barkov Franchise
3 Drouin Franchise
4 Jones Franchise
2014
1. Ekblad Franchise
2. Reinhart
3 Draisaitl Franchise
4. Bennet
2015
1. McDavid Franchise
2. Eichel Franchise
3. Strome
4. Marner Franchise
2016
1. Matthews Franchise
2. Laine Franchise
3. PLD Franchise

29/48, 60%

And I don’t get your point... you’re saying we drafted in the top5 x amount of times but look... look at where our franchise players (PLD and Nash) Were drafted... you’re proving my point. Johansen and Zherdev might be top5-10 players to ever play for the franchise... both drafted in the top 5 lolololililiol

I stopped reading at "Fleury Franchise".

 

[Cowumbus]

I stopped reading at "Fleury Franchise".

He’s going to be a HOF. Wow I can’t believe you just said that. Honestly.

 

[Viqsi]

2003
1 Fluery Franchise
2 Staal Franchise
3 Horton
2004
1 Ovi Franchise
2 Malkin Franchise
3 Barber
2005
1 Crosby Franchise
2 Ryan
3 Johnson
2006
1 Johnson
2 Staal
3 Toews Franchise
4. Backstrom Franchise
5 Kessel Franchise
2007
1 Kane Franchise
2 JVR
3 Turris
2008
1 Stamkos Franchise
2 Doughty Franchise
3 Bogosian
2009
1 Tavares Franchise
2 Hedman Franchise
3 Duchene Franchise
2010
1. Hall Franchise
2. Seguin Franchise
3. Gudbranson
4. Johansen
2011
1. RNH
2. Landeskog Franchise
3. Huberdeau
2012
1. Yakupov
2. Murray
3. Galchenyuk
2013
1 Mackinnon Franchise
2 Barkov Franchise
3 Drouin Franchise
4 Jones Franchise
2014
1. Ekblad Franchise
2. Reinhart
3 Draisaitl Franchise
4. Bennet
2015
1. McDavid Franchise
2. Eichel Franchise
3. Strome
4. Marner Franchise
2016
1. Matthews Franchise
2. Laine Franchise
3. PLD Franchise

29/48, 60%

And I don’t get your point... you’re saying we drafted in the top5 x amount of times but look... look at where our franchise players (PLD and Nash) Were drafted... you’re proving my point. Johansen and Zherdev might be top5-10 players to ever play for the franchise... both drafted in the top 5 lolololililiol

This is incredibly disingenuous for a number of reasons, but the most significant is that your final total (and thus the proportion) reflects completely arbitrary selections between each year featuring three or four or even five picks so as to maximize the "franchise" count. Pick a range and stick to it - top-3 or top-4 or top-5 for all years - and do a recount.

Also, by this accounting we already have two franchise players. How many do you think we actually need?

 

[majormajor]

He’s going to be a HOF. Wow I can’t believe you just said that. Honestly.

Landeskog was 23, Duchene 25, and Mackinnon 21 in 2016-17 when the Colorado Avalanche won a grand total of 22 games, in the worst season by any team in recent memory. These are all "franchise players" by your count. How does a team with that many "franchise players" suck that bad?

You would like us to finish dead list so we have a 49.5% chance of getting a top 3 pick, which then gives us a 29/48 chance of getting a "Cowumbus franchise player". This doesn't look like a good way to build a team.

That and maybe you've got a too-expansive definition of a franchise player.

Edit: Just noticed you were using different counts for different years, so not 29/48. That's dirty bud.

 

[Cowumbus]

This is incredibly disingenuous for a number of reasons, but the most significant is that your final total (and thus the proportion) reflects completely arbitrary selections between each year featuring three or four or even five picks so as to maximize the "franchise" count. Pick a range and stick to it - top-3 or top-4 or top-5 for all years - and do a recount.

Also, by this accounting we already have two franchise players. How many do you think we actually need?

Using only the top3 is 25/42. A 60 percent chance. (the same)

I included guys in the 4OA and 5OA to show that there are talented guys close to the top3, especially in “good” draft years.

tag: @majormajor

 

[Viqsi]

Using only the top3 is 25/42. A 60 percent chance.

Assuming your rather broad definition of "franchise player", sure. If guys like Landeskog and Drouin and Duchene can be included among the ranks of "franchise players", you know who else qualifies? Guys like Atkinson. And Werenski.

I included guys in the 4OA and 5OA to show that there are talented guys close to the top3, especially in “good” draft years.

There's talented guys all over the draft. If you're going to pull that sort of thing, you should be looking more broadly. Good research isn't looking for what confirms your hypothesis; good research is looking for what could potentially disprove your hypothesis.

 

[Cowumbus]

Landeskog was 23, Duchene 25, and Mackinnon 21 in 2016-17 when the Colorado Avalanche won a grand total of 22 games, in the worst season by any team in recent memory. These are all "franchise players" by your count. How does a team with that many "franchise players" suck that bad?

You would like us to finish dead list so we have a 49.5% chance of getting a top 3 pick, which then gives us a 29/48 chance of getting a "Cowumbus franchise player". This doesn't look like a good way to build a team.

That and maybe you've got a too-expansive definition of a franchise player.

Edit: Just noticed you were using different counts for different years, so not 29/48. That's dirty bud.

How to the Blackhawks suck with 3 HOF on their roster?

How do the Devils suck with Hughes, Hall, Subban?
The kings with Doughty, Kovi, Kopitar?
The Stars with Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Heiskenen?

lol