The "Tanking" And/Or Other Roster Moves Discussion Thread

Cowumbus

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Mar 1, 2014
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If a top3 pick means a greater chance at getting a generational player
And finishing lower in the standings means you have a greater chance at picking in the top3
Then finishing lower in the standings is better than finishing hire

That is statistics, that is probability.

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Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
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If a top3 pick means a greater chance at getting a generational player
And finishing lower in the standings means you have a greater chance at picking in the top3
Then finishing lower in the standings is better than finishing hire

That is statistics, that is probability.
Oh my G-d. :facepalm:

You can't just look at your end goal and then assume that maximizing probabilities of each step will get you to that goal. You have to also look at how likely that end goal is, and what the more probable results are along each step of that path. If I could become a millionaire by letting someone unload a machine gun in my direction at 10 meters, it would be extraordinarily foolish for me to say "sure, sign me up".

The part you don't seem to want to acknowledge is that it is literally too risky to pursue that path. There is no plan you can follow to get a franchise player that does not carry an absurdly high risk of condemning your franchise to a decade or more of doom. Your only hope is good scouting and even better good fortune. Trying to find shortcuts to that is what kills franchises and fanbases.
 

KJ Dangler

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Oct 21, 2006
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Have to wonder what Bemstrom, Milano, and Bjorkstrand would look like playing in Vegas system . How Torts watched Karlsson in practice every day , and determined he should play a checking center role is beyond baffling . Kid has it all , speed , passing ability , shot , and hockey sense . Oh well , 1 game closer to the inevitable coaching change .
 

Cowumbus

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Mar 1, 2014
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Oh my G-d. :facepalm:

You can't just look at your end goal and then assume that maximizing probabilities of each step will get you to that goal. You have to also look at how likely that end goal is, and what the more probable results are along each step of that path. If I could become a millionaire by letting someone unload a machine gun in my direction at 10 meters, it would be extraordinarily foolish for me to say "sure, sign me up".

The part you don't seem to want to acknowledge is that it is literally too risky to pursue that path. There is no plan you can follow to get a franchise player that does not carry an absurdly high risk of condemning your franchise to a decade or more of doom. Your only hope is good scouting and even better good fortune. Trying to find shortcuts to that is what kills franchises and fanbases.
:facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:
Do you not see the irony in what you are saying? You should look at how likely the end goal is that the Jackets compete for a cup with the current roster.
I find it hilarious that you find it to be “too risky” to consider selling off players compared to going with the current core without a 2nd in 2019,2020 and a third in 2020. Is it not risky to continue to be a (possible) bubble team year after year and have the fan base slowly fizzle out? What are the ramifications of never being able to win? What if Atkinson and Foligno and Jenner contracts become Dubylike, is it not a risk to continue paying them and their trade value possibly decrease??? There is a risk to everything and to act like the path we are on is the “safe” path is wrong. Nobody knows, no matter how bad you think that you do.

How much do Foligno, Cam, Savard, Nyquist and Jenner really help? If they are off our team, the Jackets aren’t much different:

Texier(24) -PLD(26) - Anderson (30)
Milano(28) -Wennberg(29)-Bjork(29)
Bemstrom(25)-Nash-Lilja(31)
Sherwood(27)-Stenlund(27)-Beerman
Werenski (27) Jones (29)
Gavrikov(28) Peeke (26)
Harrington(31) Nutivaara (30)
Korpi
Merz

We would have plenty of room to sign everyone, cap space to make moves and plenty of ice time to develop players. TFW and Foudy will be on the way as well. I think it is much more realistic to win with a core of the players above (age +5years) surrounded by young prospects with promise, than it is to be carried by guys like Cam,Foligno,Nyquist etc. Too much ice time and cap tied up in overpaid and older players. The young core we have now is much better than the old vets. We do not have enough veteran players at high skill levels to be combined with our young core to actually compete.

I think a team like the leafs would Love Jenner+Savard. Cam would be a good fit for Pittsburgh.
 
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CBJWerenski8

Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
Jun 13, 2009
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The kids are ready to play, yeah Jarmo?

Bemstrom is lost.

Texier was okay prior to injury. But only okay. At least there were sparks there.

Bjorkstrand is still Bjorkstrand. Sparks at times, fizzles out most of the time.

Wennberg is still Wennberg, but maybe a little better. However, nothing they were counting on.

Korpisalo is wildly inconsistent, as he has always been. Elvis is still a TBD.

Werenski looks stagnated. Jones isn't Jones right now.

But hey, at least Dubois and Gavrikov look really good?
 

JacketsDavid

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Jan 11, 2013
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This team (and the offense) isn’t one player away from being fixed. Let alone that player being an 18 year old.

I think one elite player would be an enormous help.
Just like this past off season most folks thought just losing Panarin wouldn't hurt that much.

If you get an elite player they make their line mates better. They make the PP better. It allows other players to be slotted differently and to not be matched up against the best defensive pairs.

Again I come back to for 60 games last year the only significant difference with our offense was Panarin. Now he may not be a top 20 player, but he is an elite offensive player that made this team better offensively.
 
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BluejacketNut

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The comments about this team needing to build through the draft are 100% correct. And while it was a nice warm and fuzzy 2 months at the end of last season, not getting anything for Bob (who we knew was going to leave) and Panarin (who it had to be known was very unlikely to stay) and then unloading assets to get Dzingle, Duchene (who we pretty much knew was not going to stay) and Kinkaid was extremely stupid...especially when all of that still didnt put us as a favorite to win the cup.
 

Dumais

It's All In The Reflexes
Jul 24, 2013
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I disagree with most of this thread. I think we got something for the guys who left; a playoff series win which is huge in my opinion. Just for the fact I no longer have to hear every broadcast: The only team to never win a playoff series... Could we have gotten more series wins by trading them and getting assets back, maybe... But IDC that TBL series was historic in so many ways.

As for the whole idea of tanking and rebuilding or retooling. I'm still under the impression that we are a good team and 1 player away from the playoffs. I've been saying it for months and what this team needs is a 2c. It doesn't have to be an elite player, just a competent one. IMO the problem with the top six is PLD's line is the only scoring line (Torts line changes can't fix this) other teams have to worry about which is making us a 1-dimensional team and easy to hold to 2goals or less.

If we had another line that was even remotely dangerous (not even talking about scoring here) we would have a much better record.
 

DarkandStormy

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The comments about this team needing to build through the draft are 100% correct. And while it was a nice warm and fuzzy 2 months at the end of last season, not getting anything for Bob (who we knew was going to leave) and Panarin (who it had to be known was very unlikely to stay) and then unloading assets to get Dzingle, Duchene (who we pretty much knew was not going to stay) and Kinkaid was extremely stupid...especially when all of that still didnt put us as a favorite to win the cup.

We took a fringe, free agent flier signing for basically league minimum (Duclair) and turned him into the loss of two 2nd picks. Amazing asset management by Jarmo & Co.

Hard to build through the draft when you've traded away so many picks to get a playoff series win.
 
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CalBuckeyeRob

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Feb 25, 2012
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Going to be a long rebuild. Unless you find that very rare generational talent at #1 overall, it is usually at least 2-3 years after a draft before anyone picked really matters to wins and losses in a meaningful way. Play the young guys if you don't think you are doing damage to their development and finish near the bottom for the next 3-4 years and see where you are. Unfortunately, that might mean by the time you can see some real progress you will be dealing Jones and Werenski for more draft picks and youth but not sure there is a better or faster way when no relevant UFA is coming to Columbus.
 
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EspenK

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Unless the team breaks out out of its funk real soon, I think replacing Torts is the first step. A fish rots from the head...and all that. Try to find someone who coaches offense. The Jackets are now a dump and chase team and not very good at it. If Jarmo could/would fire himself that would help.

If that doesn't happen or work then the next step is a serious evaluation of the talent and start cutting loose the guys who don't fit long term. Get as many picks for them as you can. This is a deep draft and if we can acquire enough assets this might lead to a really good player or two.

Who is untouchable? Nobody I think. Realistically though I'd build around PLD, Jones, Werenski, Texier. Secondary keepers would be Bjorkstrand, Anderson & Bemstrom. Everyone else can go imo. Unfortunately I think we're stuck with Foligno & Cam due to their NTC's. Although Foligno's is a modified one so there is hope there.

If they lose the next 3 that would equal Richard's 0-8 start. If they don't start scoring it is a distinct possibility.
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
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You should look at how likely the end goal is that the Jackets compete for a cup with the current roster.
It's better than the odds of the team being competitive if we tank, simply due to improvement from within from the youth.

I'm not opposed to selling some guys at the deadline if the team is firmly out of it. But you've been talking about top-3 picks and franchise players. We're not going to be in a position to do that, and attempting to reach for that is incredible folly.
 

Madifer

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Seriously but sup with Cam? I used to enjoy his game a lot, also in the pre Panarin era so Breads departure isnt the reason for it. What happened to that quick guy who could steal the puck, create 1:1s or breakaways and score so easily? There are only glimpses of that glory to be seen in this year's way less confident version of Cam.

Its not his body, its mental
 
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Monstershockey

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You can talk about getting great talent at the top of the draft but it means nothing if you don't have anyone else. Look at Toronto, they have Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, and a top tier coach and they haven't done anything. CBJ got farther in the playoffs last year. I think you need to build a solid supporting cast, then take a run at a high quality free agent. Look how long it took Washington to win it with Ovechkin. There are way too many gaps on this team to try and get a great high pick here.
 

GoJackets1

Someday.
Aug 21, 2008
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You can talk about getting great talent at the top of the draft but it means nothing if you don't have anyone else. Look at Toronto, they have Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, and a top tier coach and they haven't done anything. CBJ got farther in the playoffs last year. I think you need to build a solid supporting cast, then take a run at a high quality free agent. Look how long it took Washington to win it with Ovechkin. There are way too many gaps on this team to try and get a great high pick here.
I don't really understand what you're saying here. There's too many gaps on this team so why bother getting a high pick because it wouldn't help anyways? I assume I'm misinterpreting.

Count me in amongst those who expected this season to go poorly. So I don't really mind if we aren't good, especially if we somehow managed to pull Lafreniere, who is probably the best forward available through the draft since Matthews. Really, this season should be used to decide if we have the right coaching staff in place for such a young, quick, and potentially skilled team, and if Korpi/Elvis are the solution moving forward.
 

Monstershockey

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I don't know how to word it, but if they get a great top 3 pick that steps right in, I don't think Columbus has enough other talent that they will take the next step. They kind of need to get better role players that will contribute more when the top guys on not on the ice. They kind of need to restock the supporting cast before they can really bring in a top player.
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
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I don't know how to word it, but if they get a great top 3 pick that steps right in, I don't think Columbus has enough other talent that they will take the next step. They kind of need to get better role players that will contribute more when the top guys on not on the ice. They kind of need to restock the supporting cast before they can really bring in a top player.
I think Panarin's presence last year suggests otherwise.

I don't doubt that such a player would be useful. I just don't think there's a non-self-destructive path to getting such a player unless good fortune comes along.
 

BluejacketNut

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Seriously but sup with Cam? I used to enjoy his game a lot, also in the pre Panarin era so Breads departure isnt the reason for it. What happened to that quick guy who could steal the puck, create 1:1s or breakaways and score so easily? There are only glimpses of that glory to be seen in this year's way less confident version of Cam.

Its not his body, its mental
Father time is undefeated. Add on there that there is no Bread bringing the puck into the zone and you're left with what you see. He's on the wrong side of 30 and isnt likely to improve much. His contract is going to be atrocious in a couple years
 

Monstershockey

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I think Panarin's presence last year suggests otherwise.

I don't doubt that such a player would be useful. I just don't think there's a non-self-destructive path to getting such a player unless good fortune comes along.
Yeah, I looking at it as next year everyone is a year older. Age effects everyone different so who knows what will happen. Last 2 years everyone was younger and had less wear and tear. Last year should have been the year to make their run but it came up short. Every season has a new set of circumstances and it becomes tougher as your vets age and your young guys still have question marks. Maybe they need a new voice coaching, but then you may fall in the trap where you are always replacing coaches and not improving. Too make a long story short, I don't want to tank, but am prepared to play the young guys to get experience and to see what we have. I can live with losing if that is what they do.
 

EDM

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Mar 8, 2008
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Cr I agree with u. The primary issue is Jarmo’s spectacular failure to upgrade the 2c from Wennberg. It is inexcusable that Jarmo did nothing to upgrade from Wennberg in the off season. Instead he repeated the old line that Wennberg will really be different this year (which he was for 5 games). No head coach can build a winner with a nonentity like Wennberg as 2c. We have a decent 1sr line with Nyquist, PLD & Cam. We gave a strong 3rd line with Nick, Boone & Andy. We seem to have 2 strong potential second line wings in Sonny & Bjork. What is missing is the offensive threat inbetween them that could drive that line. Creating a strong second line could ease the pressure on the first line. That cannot happens with Wennberg as 2c. Change the coach, whatever, but no coach will succeed with a marginal, at best 2c like Wennberg.

if changes need to be made, the first change is the GM who will not b in love with Wennberg. Unfortunately I see zero chance of that happening.
 
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