The Pro Tank Thread I Post #621

[Melvin]

You're not factoring injuries though. Usually they drop off from injuries, this year they'll only be adding guys like edler, baertschi, sutter, beagle... and hopefully a healthy boeser.

Very true.

I fear that this teams could fall just short of a wild card basically the worst possible result.

 

[Bleach Clean]

They have an even goal differential, so .500. Suppose their true talent is .450, slightly higher than last year. That gives them 58 more points over the final 65 games. Adding that to the 21 points they have already banked, and that is 79 points. That's a team that finishes in the dreaded 10-12 zone, not really competitive and not really in the running for a top pick.

Can you show your math?

Their GA is ugly and I highly doubt they can sustain scoring that is tops in the league.. They've also had some OT luck.

 

[Melvin]

Can you show your math?

Their GA is ugly and I highly doubt they can sustain scoring that is tops in the league.. They've also had some OT luck.

Suppose they are a 450 team. There are 65 games remaining so that is 130 possible points. 130x.45=58 points. Add that to the 21 points they already have to get 79.

How bad can they really be? Even if they are a 425 tean the rest of the way you are looking at 76 points. Given that they currently have an even goal differential I doubt they are truly thst bad or worse. I am erring on the side of pessimism using 450.

If they really are a 500 team as their differential suggests then we are looking at 86 points which would be a disaster.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Suppose they are a 450 team. There are 65 games remaining so that is 130 possible points. 130x.45=58 points. Add that to the 21 points they already have to get 79.

How bad can they really be? Even if they are a 425 tean the rest of the way you are looking at 76 points. Given that they currently have an even goal differential I doubt they are truly thst bad or worse. I am erring on the side of pessimism using 450.

If they really are a 500 team as their differential suggests then we are looking at 86 points which would be a disaster.

They have an even goal differential while being the highest scoring team in the league though. Of the two, GF and GA, it's most reasonable to expect for the scoring not to hold. In other words, for them to remain .500 team the rest of the way, they would have to score 270~ goals on the year. That is +92 goals on last year. That is an amazing increase in GF, year to year.

 

[Melvin]

They have an even goal differential while being the highest scoring team in the league though. Of the two, GF and GA, it's most reasonable to expect for the scoring not to hold. In other words, for them to remain .500 team the rest of the way, they would have to score 270~ goals on the year. That is +92 goals on last year. That is an amazing increase in GF, year to year.

But that's why I used 450 and not 500. What do you think is a reasonable gf and Ga and what pt% does that give you if you plug it into pythag?

Also they are not leading the league in gf/gp

 

[Bleach Clean]

But that's why I used 450 and not 500. What do you think is a reasonable gf and Ga and what pt% does that give you if you plug it into pythag?

Also they are not leading the league in gf/gp

Not anymore, no. They are 2GF off the pace.

Actually, after checking out their finishing point total last year (73), and their hot start (longer than last year), I cannot say that you are wrong to project 76~ points. 80 is not out of the question either. That would allow them to finish around 10-11 in the standings. Interesting.

Edit: That's around where the Oilers and Islanders finished last year.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Hmh.

Looks like no Kakko / Hughes for us.

At least the team is fun to watch. Hope it stays that way when reality catches up to them and the losses rack up.

 

[Melvin]

Not anymore, no. They are 2GF off the pace.

Actually, after checking out their finishing point total last year (73), and their hot start (longer than last year), I cannot say that you are wrong to project 76~ points. 80 is not out of the question either. That would allow them to finish around 10-11 in the standings. Interesting.

Edit: That's around where the Oilers and Islanders finished last year.

I would probably guess 81 if forced to pick a number.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Hmh.

Looks like no Kakko / Hughes for us.

At least the team is fun to watch. Hope it stays that way when reality catches up to them and the losses rack up.

I didn't expect Kakko or Hughes, but still had hope for Suzuki or Turcotte. Now, that projection is in danger.

I would probably guess 81 if forced to pick a number.

Islanders territory last year, not good. That's the dead zone.

 

[Melvin]

I didn't expect Kakko or Hughes, but still had hope for Suzuki or Turcotte. Now, that projection is in danger.





Islanders territory last year, not good. That's the dead zone.

I'm mostly worried that it is viewed as progress, which buys Benning even more time.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I didn't expect Kakko or Hughes, but still had hope for Suzuki or Turcotte. Now, that projection is in danger.





Islanders territory last year, not good. That's the dead zone.

Cant expect top3 in this draft lottery system. But looks like we are mathematically all but eliminating the chance as well.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I'm mostly worried that it is viewed as progress, which buys Benning even more time.

I don’t get the impression that Benning’s employment is directly tied to his team’s record. If it was, he would have been fired already. I think his timeline is tied to his potential boss - the next President.

Aquilini has yet to act on that front.

 

[DomY]

Our blue-line is not good enough.. even if Hughes comes as billed unless I am surprised by Rathbone/Juolevi. And, I still have questions whether one or two of (Lind, Gadjovich, Dahlen, Palmu, Gaudette, Jasek, Madden, etc.) become Top-6/9 forwards. As such, to correct those deficiencies through Free Agency or Trade hurts our development or is opportunity cost by limiting cap space. It's too soon.

The statistical likelihood of what we have becoming what we need is not there. One more year of the suck.... especially with the draft in our barn.

Thanks for the discussion. My assessment of our team needs is more or less on par with yours, along with the concern that our prospects in house are going to be closer to top-9 than top-6 type players.

To put on my tanking hat, I think the composition of our forward lines should like like this:

1st Line - Premier Offence with speed: Top Playmaking Winger - Pettersson - Scoring Winger
2nd Line - "Canadian Hockey" with O-Starts : Energy middle-six winger - Horvat - top-6 winger
3rd Line - 2-way line, rotating in wingers with 2nd line: middle-six winger - Offensive 3C - middle-six winger
4th Line - Soak up defensive minutes: Beagle Beagle Beagle
Scratches: Walking wounded or change-of-pace 2nd line winger

Filling in names:

Goldobin-Pettersson-Virtanen
Baertschi-Horvat-Boeser
Eriksson-Sutter-Granlund

I think these names are guys we move on from. Goldobin-Pettersson work, but I would like to see Pettersson play with a true 1LW playmaker. Goldobin and/or Baertschi would be moved (I think you have to pay them the same money). I think Virtanen has turned the corner. I think if we stop expecting him to play like Tom Wilson, or Kassian and treat him more like Kessel, Marchand or even Ovechkin (a finesse shooter who happens to be big) we can see that he's really a skill shooter and Pettersson can make him a star. One more thing about Virtanen, I think he's a Canuck at least until UFA simply because of the ghost of Cam Neely.

I also am giving EP40 kind of the Crosby treatment in that he's expected to play with basically anyone and still put up 1st line results. Goldobin might be his Kunitz, but I'd like to find him someone with higher upside.

Ideal addition would be a Mitch Marner type. This is where I think the biggest hole in our forward group is, and there's nobody available in trade or UFA.

Treating Horvat more like (spaghetti skate era) Linden and less like Kesler has made me appreciate Horvat's game a lot more. He's the power forward of the team, and the biggest thing for him is work ethic. This line is basically your traditional 3rd line energy line but all with more offensive upside.

Ideal addition would be a Mark Stone or Jeff Skinner type.

I am hoping Eriksson-Sutter-Granlund can be upgraded internally, either by prospects or in Eriksson's case, finding his game for the first time in 3 years.

To summarize, if I am drafting for the Canucks this year, I am taking the best playmaker in the draft, and immediately putting him with Pettersson. I am not versed well enough in the 2019 draft to know who this player is.

On Defense, if we can't lure Karlsson to Vancouver, I would switch gears and try to bring in Keith. I would try to trade for Dante Fabbro who is blocked in Nashville. And I would strongly consider giving Bobrovsky a high value 1 year deal.

In the dream scenario where we manage to get Jack Hughes, would you put him on the wing with Horvat and Boeser?

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Seems like quality of competition is not being brought up. They have played the best teams mostly on the road while having multiple injuries to their best players and are winning Impressive. Early but impressive maybe end of last year was a sign. How long before we see this as a trend? Game 30? 40? 50?... 80?

 

[Hemty]

At this point, TG deserves the Jack Adams, lmfao.
Was quite mad about the win last night tbh (mainly cause EP ONLY got 1 point ). How the hell do we keep winning with this D core.

 

[Jack Burton]

Dammit!

I'm getting frustrated with these wins.

Just lose baby!

 

[THE Green Man]

Tank is slowly being killed. The wheels could fall off this bus still but it's picked up a lot of momentum thus far. It's great to see EP and Horvat and even Jake produce, along with Hutton finding his game. However it means JB has another offseason to play with which is terrifying. That being said any time we can beat Boston, especially put up a 8 ball on them I'm happy. Need to lose out the rest of the road trip now for the tank if not we're into bubble territory with American Thanksgiving 2 weeks away.

 

[Melvin]

Seems like quality of competition is not being brought up. They have played the best teams mostly on the road while having multiple injuries to their best players and are winning Impressive. Early but impressive maybe end of last year was a sign. How long before we see this as a trend? Game 30? 40? 50?... 80?

Think about this. We are trying to gauge the quality of our own team. How are you gauging the quality of the competition?

 

[xtra]

Like Melvin said elsewhere we can’t retcon the past but the wheels are gonna come off I fear that it’s going to give them false hope for next year when they aren’t able to start with these crazy numbers but by then benning and all will make a dumb move or 3 to push for the playoffs.

 

[elwin316]

Saw this graphic at the end of TSN's highlight package regarding games played prior to reaching the 10 win mark. I'm starting to doubt our chances of a bottom three finish. I think we are heading towards "just missed the playoffs" purgatory.

 

[Bobby Digital]

We seem to be one more great draft class away from really being on the upswing. This start is really killing those chances of making that happen.

 

[timw33]

We seem to be one more great draft class away from really being on the upswing. This start is really killing those chances of making that happen.

Yep. We could really use another impact young winger to give us two very strong C/W pairings, and are in *dire* need of several more quality D prospects. Our top G prospect should be getting NHL starts by now, but played poorly in preseason and then got a concussion, which is very concerning.

We need a lot of our prospects to not only pan out, but pan out at the higher end of their potentials right now. Need to keep adding high quality prospects.

 

[stuffradio]

I wish you guys would just enjoy the entertaining start instead of whining that we're winning. The Oilers have McDavid through tanking, they haven't won a cup. You're not guaranteed to win by tanking alone, you need good trades and contracts too! That's how we got to the finals in 2011, a combination of our drafter players with great contracts/trades. Just enjoy the ride instead of being mad we're winning.

 

[Melvin]

I wish you guys would just enjoy the entertaining start instead of whining that we're winning. The Oilers have McDavid through tanking, they haven't won a cup. You're not guaranteed to win by tanking alone, you need good trades and contracts too! That's how we got to the finals in 2011, a combination of our drafter players with great contracts/trades. Just enjoy the ride instead of being mad we're winning.

Please don't tell me what to do.

 

[Bobby Digital]

I wish you guys would just enjoy the entertaining start instead of whining that we're winning. The Oilers have McDavid through tanking, they haven't won a cup. You're not guaranteed to win by tanking alone, you need good trades and contracts too! That's how we got to the finals in 2011, a combination of our drafter players with great contracts/trades. Just enjoy the ride instead of being mad we're winning.

When your GM is Jim Benning you don't have the luxury of hoping those things come to fruition. So tanking is pretty much the only way this team will land impact players.