OT: The Off-Topic Thread XX: La fiesta española

[Unlimited Chequing]

Hey folks - hope this isn't too offside, but I'm wondering how many people in here are planning on voting in the plebiscite tomorrow.

I don't care *how* you are voting, I'm just curious how many people are actually planning on voting (or have voted already).

I'm gonna go vote before heading into the office tomorrow. I used to think it was going to be an overwhelming no, but the Yes group seems to be making a big push and I'm getting the impression there's a lot of uninformed people in favour for it so I just gotta get my pick in.

I'd be really pissed off if it came down neck in neck for either direction and Nenshi spun some narrative saying it was a close enough vote so we'll go through with the bid anyways.

 

[Unlimited Chequing]

Im getting married in less than a month... what the hell lol

Congrats man!

 

[Ace Rimmer]

there's a lot of uninformed people in favour

Equally, if not more, of uninformed people against. Much more vocal too.

I voted last week.

 

[Rubi]

Eric Francis supports a yes vote... So that tells me everything I need to know.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

That you're someone who won't do his own research?

Got it.

 

[Rubi]

That you're someone who won't do his own research?

Got it.

Now that's a big leap. I've done my own research. Francis just helped with my final decision.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Despite my gripes with the tax implications, I plan on voting YES today.

 

[Rubi]

Despite my gripes with the tax implications, I plan on voting YES today.

Tax implications might be much higher than you expect.

First of all with a downtown vacancy rate of approximately 30% your taxes are already going up to cover the tax shortfall.

Secondly, Calgary plans on contributing approximately $400 million to host the Olympics. Overall budget is approximately $5 billion. I think we can all agree that $5 billion is a VERY conservative estimate of what the total cost will be. Past Olympics have shown us that the average cost overrun is between 50% to 150%.
Lets be conservative and use the 50% number so that means the Olympic final cost will likely be around $7.5 billion. The City of Calgary is financially responsible for all cost overruns. That means the Olympics will likely cost the Calgary taxpayer $2.9 billion instead of $400 million.... if not more.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

So if the downtown vacancy rate goes down, do my taxes go down too? LOL

Those businesses didn't leave Calgary, they moved to new business areas like Quarry Park. Despite moving to 27% over the last 4 years, residential taxes went up 4%. Total. Less than inflation. That dog won't hunt, monsignor.

I can guarantee you that not one person posting here, including myself, can guarantee anything regarding the cost estimate. Having been involved in multi-billion dollar projects myself, I can tell you that yes, +30% is entirely plausible, especially at this stage. (the "minus" is never real) Thing is if they're planning on re-using the existing facilities, that number becomes renovation cost, not new infrastructure cost. So many cost estimates will be closer to +10% as it's renovation/refurbishment, not new construction.

Calgary isn't on the hook for security overruns. That's the biggest budget item and the one most likely to go over budget, because of unknown risks.

 

[RedHot]

Voting no. Not interested in shelling out billions so Nenshi and others can sip champagne from their box seats.

No new large arena, no new stadium (Mcmahon renos are equivalent to putting lipstick on a pig).

Not to mention the odour coming from an organization such as the IOC.

 

[Rubi]

So if the downtown vacancy rate goes down, do my taxes go down too? LOL

Probably not but the increase will most likely be less than what it would be without those vacancies. Property taxes always go up... due to inflation and other reasons. Low vacancy rates downtown result in residential and commercial tax increases above the norm.

Those businesses didn't leave Calgary, they moved to new business areas like Quarry Park. Despite moving to 27% over the last 4 years, residential taxes went up 4%. Total. Less than inflation. That dog won't hunt, monsignor.

All those businesses did not move to other locations within the city. When you downsize you require less office space. There's been a lot of downsizing in the past few years. Less required office space means higher vacancy rates. Residential taxes have been subsidized by the the city's emergency funds, the past couple of years, in order to reduce tax increases. Over the past two years, the city has thrown taxpayer dough at the problem. One year it was $45 million, the next year $41 million, trying to cap the yearly tax hike to 5%. The city can't afford to keep doing this.

I can guarantee you that not one person posting here, including myself, can guarantee anything regarding the cost estimate. Having been involved in multi-billion dollar projects myself, I can tell you that yes, +30% is entirely plausible, especially at this stage. (the "minus" is never real) Thing is if they're planning on re-using the existing facilities, that number becomes renovation cost, not new infrastructure cost. So many cost estimates will be closer to +10% as it's renovation/refurbishment, not new construction.

Calgary isn't on the hook for security overruns. That's the biggest budget item and the one most likely to go over budget, because of unknown risks.

As far as I know Ottawa hasn't promised to cover any security cost overruns. Please find me something that definitely says they will. Also, a lot of the money being spent to upgrade existing facilities is a waste of money. The money they will spend to upgrade McMahon Stadium is a waste... as many have said... lipstick on a pig and a lot of the renos will be temporary (just for the Olympics). The money they will spend on the 35 year old Saddledome is a waste... they will be tearing that building down to make room for a new arena within the next few years... they have to build a new arena and I doubt anyone here will disagree. The money they will be spending on a 5000 seat arena is a waste. The city doesn't need a 5000 seat arena.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Tax implications might be much higher than you expect.

First of all with a downtown vacancy rate of approximately 30% your taxes are already going up to cover the tax shortfall.

Property taxes are paid by building owners, not tenants. So this is blatantly incorrect.

Secondly, Calgary plans on contributing approximately $400 million to host the Olympics. Overall budget is approximately $5 billion. I think we can all agree that $5 billion is a VERY conservative estimate of what the total cost will be. Past Olympics have shown us that the average cost overrun is between 50% to 150%.

Show your work.

Lets be conservative and use the 50% number so that means the Olympic final cost will likely be around $7.5 billion. The City of Calgary is financially responsible for all cost overruns. That means the Olympics will likely cost the Calgary taxpayer $2.9 billion instead of $400 million.... if not more.

Again, show your work. Stating it will 'likely' cost 2.9 billion to the municipal tax payer is a number you've pulled from thin air. This is not a convincing argument. If you do the math (as the city has) even with overruns the projected realistic worst possible outcome is about $25 in additional property tax per household.

 

[JPeeper]

Voting no. Not interested in shelling out billions so Nenshi and others can sip champagne from their box seats.

No new large arena, no new stadium (Mcmahon renos are equivalent to putting lipstick on a pig).

Not to mention the odour coming from an organization such as the IOC.

I guarantee you 100% that by 2026 Nenshi will no longer be mayor so this shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Rubi]

Property taxes are paid by building owners, not tenants. So this is blatantly incorrect.



Show your work.



Again, show your work. Stating it will 'likely' cost 2.9 billion to the municipal tax payer is a number you've pulled from thin air. This is not a convincing argument. If you do the math (as the city has) even with overruns the projected realistic worst possible outcome is about $25 in additional property tax per household.

You seriously don't believe that what tenants pay in rent doesn't include the cost of taxes?? And if there is a shortfall in commercial property tax income the city has to make up that shortfall somehow... and it will come from residential property taxes.

As to cost overruns.. see attached.
The Olympic Games Always Go Over Budget, in One Chart (1968-2016)

the average cost overrun for the Olympics is 156% (176% for Summer Games, 142% for Winter Games). Almost four out of five Games studied in the paper overrun the initial cost estimate by at least half, while almost one in two end up costing at least double. Compare that to other megaprojects: road building typically overruns by 20%, bridge and tunnel construction by 34%, megadams by 90% and large IT projects by 107% - but none of them all the time.

 

[InfinityIggy]

You seriously don't believe that what tenants pay in rent doesn't include the cost of taxes??
As to cost overruns.. see attached.
The Olympic Games Always Go Over Budget, in One Chart (1968-2016)

Of course building owners build the cost of property tax into their rents. That's not what we are talking about though. Do you seriously think the municipal government says "oh you don't have enough tenants, don't worry about paying us property tax this month friend!"? The municipality collects property tax regardless of if the building owner has maximized their tenants or not.

Great, that doesn't at all establish where you pulled 2.9 billion from. Even in a worst case scenario (say 150%) that would put the municipal cost at around 1 billion.

 

[Rubi]

Of course building owners build the cost of property tax into their rents. That's not what we are talking about though. Do you seriously think the municipal government says "oh you don't have enough tenants, don't worry about paying us property tax this month friend!"? The municipality collects property tax regardless of if the building owner has maximized their tenants or not.

Great, that doesn't at all establish where you pulled 2.9 billion from. Even in a worst case scenario (say 150%) that would put the municipal cost at around 1 billion.

Commercial property taxes are based on the value of the property. The value of the building is dependent upon a number of factors, one of which is the revenue that the building brings in for the owner. If the property has a 30% vacancy rate its less valuable than one that has a 5% vacancy rate.

Bullshit estimated (by Bidco) breakeven Cost of the Olympics = $5 billion
Probable Olympic cost overrun of 50% = $2.5 billion (50% of $5 billion)
Olympic final cost $7.5 billion

City of Calgary to initially contribute $400,000 towards $5 billion cost. Cost overrun = $2.5 billion.
Since the City of Calgary is on the hook for all cost overruns the total bill to the City of Calgary will be $2.9 billion.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Commercial property taxes are based on the value of the property. The value of the building is dependent upon a number of factors, one of which is the revenue that the building brings in for the owner. If the property has a 30% vacancy rate its less valuable than one that has a 5% vacancy rate.

Yes, but those valuation changes are instead passed onto other corporate locations, not residential ones. The city intentionally separates the two into separate budgets for just that reason.

Bull**** estimated (by Bidco) breakeven Cost of the Olympics = $5 billion
Probable Olympic cost overrun of 50% = $2.5 billion (50% of $5 billion)
Olympic final cost $7.5 billion

City of Calgary to initially contribute $400,000 towards $5 billion cost. Cost overrun = $2.5 billion.
Since the City of Calgary is on the hook for all cost overruns the total bill to the City of Calgary will be $2.9 billion.

Perhaps I am missing something but I don't follow your math here at all.

 

[Rubi]

Yes, but those valuation changes are instead passed onto other corporate locations, not residential ones. The city intentionally separates the two into separate budgets for just that reason.



Perhaps I am missing something but I don't follow your math here at all.

If the Olympics are budgeted to cost $5 billion and there is a 50% cost overrun, is that not an overrun of $2.5 billion dollars?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but is the city not on the hook for any cost overruns?... which would be $2.5 billion?

 

[InfinityIggy]

If the Olympics are budgeted to cost $5 billion and there is a 50% cost overrun, is that not an overrun of $2.5 billion dollars?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but is the city not on the hook for any cost overruns?... which would be $2.5 billion?

Ah you’re assuming the city is on the cost for all overrun. That isn’t the case.

 

[Rubi]

Ah you’re assuming the city is on the cost for all overrun. That isn’t the case.

What overruns would the city not be responsible for?

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Construction of a handful of new office towers over the past 5 years hasn't helped the vacancy rate either.

And whether they sit vacant or not, yes the owner pays taxes on those properties.

 

[Rubi]

Calgary 2017 property assessments plunge $6 billion year-over-year

Calgary’s residential and non-residential property assessment base has dropped to $303 billion, according to city assessors — a $6 billion year-over-year decline, largely due to a sky-high downtown office vacancy rate.
The city released its 2017 property assessment report Thursday, showing an average value of residential homes and businesses fell four and six per cent, respectively, over last year.

About 64 per cent of non-residential properties’ taxes will remain within plus or minus 10 per cent over 2016, with 27 per cent experiencing a decrease and 73 per cent increase.
Last year, council voted to dip into the city’s rainy day fund to offset a planned 1.5 percentage point increase for 2017, effectively freezing the hike to zero.
But by using one-time money to create a tax freeze, the funds will have to be paid back in 2018, the year after the municipal election, meaning residents could have an even higher tax hike in 2018.

 

[Fig]

I voted yes, but hear me out. Crater or Create, we need a direction for this city.

Yes, all the details right now look bad, but IMO if the Olympics are coming regardless, then large swathes of the city will move towards making sure that they can benefit from the game (as opposed to get bent over).

The O&G side (Pipelines > Olympics): Seriously, the city wouldn't allow the economy to look desolate before the games arrive. I bet it's a you scratch my back, I scratch yours. O&G gets a boost, and then those same companies pour into the games in one manner or another (deductible for tax purposes of course). O&G gets a kick in its step as opposed to languish, the games gets some key sponsors.

Taxation of the average Calgarian taxpayer: I really cannot see how city hall would do this in a way that truly screw us. For one, the Olympics are how far away? They'd be voted out long before it's their legacy. They'll do what is necessary to appease us to stay in power. The city would pour money left right and centre into our city to beautify it. Taxes may go up for us, but they'll definitely be working super hard to find money outside of Joe Schmoe's pocket (Federal, Provincial, corporate etc.). Raise it later? Again, booted out before it can be done.

Odds and Ends: IMO, if the games come here, money will come. I think the bigger issue will be the man power. Vacancy rates downtown will plummet as random groups fill them (if not O&G, someone coming to try and get a slice of the Olympic spotlight pie). Local businesses may find incentives to help the city meet a specific goal. I think there might be a spike in business other than O&G (ie: infrastructure, construction, tourism, logistic, tech, Cannibis etc.) Plus with what we're putting in the city, we can put it to good use, rather than other cities watching the Olympic infrastructure crumble a few years later. I think we enter into another unsustainable explosion of growth if the games come. But one that we can find a way to absorb and reduce the economic boom hangover by diversifying our economy. Denver is the model I think we need to look at in terms of diversification...

Like I said, Crater or Crumble, we need a direction. I feel like we've been standing pat for a few years now and that screw all parties involved in the long run. Good or bad, we need a direction to run. Canadians unify when there's a reason to do so. I think we can sort that out along the way.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Not overwhelming, but a really good turnout nonetheless.

Can't see how this realistically can proceed now.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming..

 

[super6646]

Guess the bid is dead. Oh well. Would've voted yes (just because of the investment potential and capital flowing in, I despise the IOC overall), but I didn't have time anyway, and it seem like the arena being included could've helped a lot in this case.