The Myth of John Tavares and Unmet Potential - by an Isles Fan

[Dekes For Days]

Same old story. People only care about raw points with no context.

Linemates have been proven to have a significant effect on production, which results in those who play with lesser linemates being underappreciated and those who play on stacked lines being overrated.

Tavares has been an amazing player throughout his career, and I wish we could have seen what he could have done in his prime with many of the same advantages that other stars got.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

JT has had a great career, he lived up to his draft expectations imo.

 

[Pancakes]

Interesting. I am sure smarter people than I have data on this, but I simply can't imagine that's true. I think you put Kucherov on a line with RNH and Lucic, with Nurse and Larsson on defence and I just don't see him scoring at near the same clip. Right now he goes on the PP with the 2nd best goalscorer of the decade, and up and coming 40g scorer, a Norris winner, and another good player - there is no way that doesn't boost his stats significantly.

The fact that it boosts him doesn't make him any less the 2nd/3rd best forward in the game, it just means his volume of points will be higher than it would have been with scrubs.

I don't know of a way to quantify it, but anecdotally you can look in the past and see things like Mario Lemieux having his best season on what was nowhere near the best Pens team, Crosby putting up his best season on nowhere near the best Pens team/linemates, etc. Malkin put up his best (or second best if you think his 113 point season was better) season when Crosby was hurt for most of the year. In fairness, Malkin did have Neal and Kunitz that year as linemates.

And then look at Tavares on the Leafs. He's on the best powerplay and team he has ever been on in his career and has more talented teammates now and yet he put up more or less the same season he did the year before for the Isles. Crosby has his best linemate ever now in Guentzel (Hossa aside) and he's still putting up what he usually does, albeit I guess you could argue he's declined a bit due to age and maybe if he had Guentzel in his mid 20s he does more.

You absolutely need good linemates to win Stanley Cups, but I think the elite guys will produce anywhere. Ice time is 100% more important than linemates. If you get the ice time, you will produce due to having more opportunities to do so.

With Kucherov - look at the season McDavid put up. Not that many less points for Connor when you adjust for games played and this despite McDavid having far worse linemates. Is that a statement on McDavid's ability as a player or maybe swapping the two and you'd see a similarly small overall point difference? I dunno, no way to verify that I guess.

 

[Twowingcantfly]

Sparaxx87. Yea I nee#d to pay attention. Wings a class act. Was not a silly suggestion. Leaf nation depended JT to at least hold his own in that Boston series. He got owned. Team chemistry got messed because his line mates spent too much time covering their own end. JT offensive IQ second to none however and he will always be an elite scorer.

 

[wetcoast]

I have been thinking about writing this post for over a month now. I've noticed on different areas of this website, John has been disrespected or generally underrated or underappreciated.

What I've read:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

Now just so we're clear, I am not interested in discussing how he left our team...as most Islander fans would agree, we're dissapointed. There's no way around that, even if he did give us some good years. If I had it my way, we would have hired Lou and Trotz 5 years ago and John's story with us may be completely different.

Good. That's out of the way. Lets look at some of John's stats.

I recently read in the prospects forum that a certain prospect is similar to Tavares, and it was meant as an insult. Posters claimed he isn't elite, and that you can find better players in every draft, so it's a disappointing comparison. Let's take a look:

Range	Goals	Assists	Points	P/GP
2 years (164gp)	2nd	36th	7th	15th
5 years (401gp)	2nd	22nd	6th	8th
10 years (751gp)	3rd	16th	7th	15th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*source: QuantHockey.com

In the last 10 years, the only players with more goals are:

• Alex Ovechkin
• Steven Stamkos

In the last 10 years, the only players with more points are:

• Sidney Crosby
• Patrick Kane
• Alex Ovechkin
• Claude Giroux
• Steven Stamkos
• Nicklas Backstrom

Take a look at that list. Can you name a player on that list who accomplished that with less help? Our Islander teams have been awful. The best players John Tavares has played with are (by P/GP in last 10 years for NYI players):

• Thomas Vanek (only 47 gp)
• Mathew Barzal (only 1 season)
• PA Parentau
• Matt Moulsen
• Brad Boyes
• Kyle Okposo

*source: NHL.com

Look at that list. Those were the best P/GP players that played for the Islanders with John over his last 10 seasons with our franchise. There is no Malkin, no Kessel, no Carlson or Backstrom, no Hedman or Kucherov, no Toews or Keith....PA Parentau and Matt Moulsen...

CONCLUSION

John Tavares has been an elite player his entire career. No one in his class of players (top scorers) over his career even come close to having as little support. Hockey is a team game, and point totals are heavily influenced by the talent around you.

• John got overpaid

How can you call his contract an overpayment? Look at his goal scoring proficiency!

• John never reached his potential

Finishing top 15 in the last decade with no help, and top 3 in goals. What more can you really expect from a player, even a #1 OA pick?

• John wasn't a great #1 pick

See above.

• John's career has been a letdown

This one is harder to answer. I remember an unbelievable amount of excitement when we drafted him. He didn't bring us a cup, and he left, so as an Islander...well, maybe you could say his time with us was a disappointment. We didn't give him any help.

However, as a player separate from the emotional aspect, I would say he's had a great career. One of the best goal scorers of the decade, and possibly of a generation. In the top 0.1% in terms of production.

Really solid post and breakdown.

I think part of the problem is that many people have always expected alot more of JT after his first 2 OHL seasons.

 

[Fixxer]

Really solid post and breakdown.

I think part of the problem is that many people have always expected alot more of JT after his first 2 OHL seasons.

The hype must have been unreal after he got 2 points per game as a 15(16) year old. 67 games 134 points. 72 goals. There were 3 or 4 future NHLers on that London Team, but that's another story... lol

And I had forgotten that part

"Oct. 25 (2007) – The Toronto Star and Globe and Mail report the Toronto Maple Leafs are contemplating signing 17-year-old Tavares to a one-year pro contract to play for their AHL farm team, the Toronto Marlies. American Hockey League president Dave Andrews dismisses it saying league bylaws require him to have turned 18 by Sept. 15. Deasley denies he’s had any contact with the Leafs, their farm team or any member club about signing a pro contract."

 

[MadLuke]

When you are not only breaking Gretzky record in the OHL:
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/tavares-breaks-gretzky-record-1.638719

But doing it right when Crosby was winning an Art Ross during is second season in the league and felt like he was on is way to many, it was natural for people to make Tavares the next Crosby type level of prospect.

It did calm down right away on is 07-08/08-09 season when is scoring scaled back instead of up despite getting older, to the point of not being a 100% consensus #1 in the pundits talk.

That special level of a first overall instead of a good number 1 aura did live on a bit, but in term of what he did is last 2 season before getting drafted and the actual hype of is draft year, seem quite in line career wise.

 

[tucker3434]

I thought he could be the 2nd best player in the league based on the hype. He’s been an excellent player but never that good. Based on that, he was a bit of a disappointment, but only because of the insane hype.

 

[TheNumber4]

Feel bad for JT cause despite being a really good player for like a decade now, he's always flown under the radar being on NYI. He probably craves that Canadian Superstardom he idolized in his heroes growing up. Now he's finally found his way to Toronto, and still no one gives a shit cause Leafs fans are too busy splooging over Matthews and Tavares is looked at like he's some secondary add-on to the great Matthews' induced dynasty that's about to happen. Tough break for JT.

Little does JT know too, as he ages and slows down, he'll be thrown right under the bus if the Leafs don't win cause his contract will still be large. Then when Matthews needs to resign in just 4 short years, they'll be trying to auction him off.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

The hype for Tavares after his 16 year old season was through the roof and some were predicting a Crosby/Lemieux/Gretzky level dominance in the NHL. What people here seem to forget is the hype subsided a little bit after his 17 year old and later his 18 year old junior season. His PPG did not improve in either of those seasons compared to his 16 year season (still around 2 ppg) and his goals per game dropped substantially. Contrast that with Crosby who went from a 2 PPG player in 16-17 year old season and then improved to a 2.7 PPG player in his 17-18 year old season.

Going into the draft Tavares was still thought to be a franchise centre, but no longer was he thought to be the next generational player like Crosby. A step down from Crosby in terms of impact was expected...and that is exactly what happened to this very day. First ballot hall of famer though, no doubt. If he stays healthy he will probably have approx. 1200 -1300 points by the time his career is over.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Well this thread isn't aging well, as is Tavares contract. He's clearly lost a step if this year is any indication. Though I would have told you so his last year on the Island, the signs of slowing down were there. He still gets his points, but he is far from dominating on the ice or what you would expect from a 11M dollar player.

 

[IslesBro715]

Loved Tavares when he was here. But I find it suspect that he leaves and we become light years better than when he was here. I still dont think hes captain material. Rob Schremp summed up JT perfectly. But when all is said and done, I think hes a HOF'r pretty easily. He will have over 500 goals and 1000 pts throughout his career. I dont think anyone would call him a dissappointment for 1st overrall and he absolutely is an elite player.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Loved Tavares when he was here. But I find it suspect that he leaves and we become light years better than when he was here. I still dont think hes captain material. Rob Schremp summed up JT perfectly. But when all is said and done, I think hes a HOF'r pretty easily. He will have over 500 goals and 1000 pts throughout his career. I dont think anyone would call him a dissappointment for 1st overrall and he absolutely is an elite player.

Usually when a player that is considered elite moves to another team that team gets better, and the team he left is considerably weakened.

But We see the opposite here for Tavares. He has never elevated a team he has been part of. Or more correctly he did, but that was light years ago. His stats will look respectable because he will get his points on the PP, or by scoring in close where he is somewhat proficient.

But he was never a superstar. His 88 pts last year, 4 more than he had with the Isles the year before with supposedly more talent to work with is probably his career best. The so called potential of being a 100 pt player does not look realistic. Heck a 90 pt year has yet to be cracked.

He has looked incredible not dominating this year. Infact his first step is slower than I can ever recall. In a game that is ever increasingly getting faster, one must wonder how 11M can be justified for a player that will have difficulty keeping up with the play. He is still a decent PP player, but for 11M per, you sure want more in a player.

 

[BrockLobster]

Loved Tavares when he was here. But I find it suspect that he leaves and we become light years better than when he was here. I still dont think hes captain material. Rob Schremp summed up JT perfectly. But when all is said and done, I think hes a HOF'r pretty easily. He will have over 500 goals and 1000 pts throughout his career. I dont think anyone would call him a dissappointment for 1st overrall and he absolutely is an elite player.

Great player. Not a HOFer IMO.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Great player. Not a HOFer IMO.

Hey Steve. IMO His best years were 2011-12 to 2015-16. Played very well, I would even say he was a great player at this point in his career. But post years, I don't see it. Especially his last year on the Island. He put up 84 pts on a talented team, one less than rookie Matthew Barzal. A team that certainly is proving to be more talented than given credit for. His 5 v 5 metrics were mediocre. The signs of decline were there for me. I posted in the Isles forum my concerns. A long term contract would only be palatable for 2 maybe a 3rd year. Right now it looks like he has hit a pothole, this year the decline is noticeable. But as for this thread claiming he has been underappreciated, I think right now for a player that has never hit 90 pts in his career, and it doesn't look like he ever will. He has been properly rated. Not a superstar, but a very good NHL'er. Definitely not HOF credentials right now.

 

[Leafs87]

He’s a great player. His biggest downfall(although it’s really not a bad thing) is that he’s not explosive or fun to watch

 

[Sky04]

What do you take of Barzal coming back with a 60 point season without the insulation of John Tavares?

Did Grabner play with Tavares? I don’t think he did.

How are they surrounded with the same talent when they have different wingers?

Would it be fair to say that Tavares is consistent and will produce good numbers regardless of linemates or competition? ... and that Barzal on the other hand, feasted on lesser competition as a rookie and got a rude awakening once he became the number 1?

I'm sure Barzal is fine since hes doing the same thing for his teammates and they're experience significantly more success now than with Tavares.

It's fair to say the Islanders have been significantly better without Tavares who for all his skill did not elevate Toronto one single bit, maybe he's just not an impact player.

 

[RMimagery]

Good post OP. I have had the same thoughts for years.

That said, I'm glad the way things turned out. Most of us knew that that contract wouldn't work long term.

 

[Dirty Dan]

Feel bad for JT cause despite being a really good player for like a decade now, he's always flown under the radar being on NYI. He probably craves that Canadian Superstardom he idolized in his heroes growing up. Now he's finally found his way to Toronto, and still no one gives a **** cause Leafs fans are too busy splooging over Matthews and Tavares is looked at like he's some secondary add-on to the great Matthews' induced dynasty that's about to happen. Tough break for JT.

Little does JT know too, as he ages and slows down, he'll be thrown right under the bus if the Leafs don't win cause his contract will still be large. Then when Matthews needs to resign in just 4 short years, they'll be trying to auction him off.

matthews has an elite shot on a pp with elite players and he was competing with kadri and jvr for goals

JT outscored him straight up

 

[authentic]

The hype for Tavares after his 16 year old season was through the roof and some were predicting a Crosby/Lemieux/Gretzky level dominance in the NHL. What people here seem to forget is the hype subsided a little bit after his 17 year old and later his 18 year old junior season. His PPG did not improve in either of those seasons compared to his 16 year season (still around 2 ppg) and his goals per game dropped substantially. Contrast that with Crosby who went from a 2 PPG player in 16-17 year old season and then improved to a 2.7 PPG player in his 17-18 year old season.

Going into the draft Tavares was still thought to be a franchise centre, but no longer was he thought to be the next generational player like Crosby. A step down from Crosby in terms of impact was expected...and that is exactly what happened to this very day. First ballot hall of famer though, no doubt. If he stays healthy he will probably have approx. 1200 -1300 points by the time his career is over.

It's so funny how many posters don't realize this. And yet his career has still been better than most 1st overall picks.

 

[authentic]

I'm sure Barzal is fine since hes doing the same thing for his teammates and they're experience significantly more success now than with Tavares.

It's fair to say the Islanders have been significantly better without Tavares who for all his skill did not elevate Toronto one single bit, maybe he's just not an impact player.

Yes, scoring 47 goals had no impact.

 

[BMOK33]

Tavares is extremely good. He isn’t elite. His game is based off some of the most remarkable hockey sense and ability to read play that I’ve ever seen. He more or less has an average to below average shot and is only a so so skater so it’s amazing the numbers he has been able to put up

 

[Islanders4Cups]

Just admit it. Leafs got Tavares to be a difference in the playoffs, to beat Boston specifically. The results speak for themselves. Bergeron was better than Tavares. He won the head to head match up, and really it was not close. Thus the Bruins moved on again.

Let’s be fair, Bergeron beats everyone head to head as he is one of if not the best defensive forwards in the NHL year over year. JT even called Bergeron the toughest forward he faces.
The Leafs problems are not Tavares, but their defense and goaltending pale in comparison to the Bruins.

If the Leafs can improve their D and goaltending, watch out.
Salary cap is another issue.
And...
As of now the Bruins are again one of the best teams in the NHL.

 

[sr edler]

Tavares got a nice shot in close and from relative distance, and he's got good playmaking instincts too, but while his skating has improved over the years it's never reached a point where he's looked to me like a dynamic game-breaking type of player who can combine first step rushes with dangerous stick-handling.

 

[NoMessi]

I have been thinking about writing this post for over a month now. I've noticed on different areas of this website, John has been disrespected or generally underrated or underappreciated.

What I've read:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

Now just so we're clear, I am not interested in discussing how he left our team...as most Islander fans would agree, we're dissapointed. There's no way around that, even if he did give us some good years. If I had it my way, we would have hired Lou and Trotz 5 years ago and John's story with us may be completely different.

Good. That's out of the way. Lets look at some of John's stats.

I recently read in the prospects forum that a certain prospect is similar to Tavares, and it was meant as an insult. Posters claimed he isn't elite, and that you can find better players in every draft, so it's a disappointing comparison. Let's take a look:

Range	Goals	Assists	Points	P/GP
2 years (164gp)	2nd	36th	7th	15th
5 years (401gp)	2nd	22nd	6th	8th
10 years (751gp)	3rd	16th	7th	15th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*source: QuantHockey.com

In the last 10 years, the only players with more goals are:

• Alex Ovechkin
• Steven Stamkos

In the last 10 years, the only players with more points are:

• Sidney Crosby
• Patrick Kane
• Alex Ovechkin
• Claude Giroux
• Steven Stamkos
• Nicklas Backstrom

Take a look at that list. Can you name a player on that list who accomplished that with less help? Our Islander teams have been awful. The best players John Tavares has played with are (by P/GP in last 10 years for NYI players):

• Thomas Vanek (only 47 gp)
• Mathew Barzal (only 1 season)
• PA Parentau
• Matt Moulsen
• Brad Boyes
• Kyle Okposo

*source: NHL.com

Look at that list. Those were the best P/GP players that played for the Islanders with John over his last 10 seasons with our franchise. There is no Malkin, no Kessel, no Carlson or Backstrom, no Hedman or Kucherov, no Toews or Keith....PA Parentau and Matt Moulsen...

CONCLUSION

John Tavares has been an elite player his entire career. No one in his class of players (top scorers) over his career even come close to having as little support. Hockey is a team game, and point totals are heavily influenced by the talent around you.

• John got overpaid

How can you call his contract an overpayment? Look at his goal scoring proficiency!

• John never reached his potential

Finishing top 15 in the last decade with no help, and top 3 in goals. What more can you really expect from a player, even a #1 OA pick?

• John wasn't a great #1 pick

See above.

• John's career has been a letdown

This one is harder to answer. I remember an unbelievable amount of excitement when we drafted him. He didn't bring us a cup, and he left, so as an Islander...well, maybe you could say his time with us was a disappointment. We didn't give him any help.

However, as a player separate from the emotional aspect, I would say he's had a great career. One of the best goal scorers of the decade, and possibly of a generation. In the top 0.1% in terms of production.

So you have players thats clearly better (Malkin), a group of defenders (Keith, Carlson and Hedman), an enigma of a sniper (Kessel), 2 selke competing centers (Backstrom and Toews, the latter was only good for a couple of years) and one late blooming superstar who entered the NHL many seasons after the cut off date.

They should not be his competition any of them.