The Myth of John Tavares and Unmet Potential - by an Isles Fan

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The Winter Soldier

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What do you take of Barzal coming back with a 60 point season without the insulation of John Tavares?

Did Grabner play with Tavares? I don’t think he did.

How are they surrounded with the same talent when they have different wingers?

Would it be fair to say that Tavares is consistent and will produce good numbers regardless of linemates or competition? ... and that Barzal on the other hand, feasted on lesser competition as a rookie and got a rude awakening once he became the number 1?

That had all to do with the Isles change in systems. Isles led the league in GA, players sacrificed their offensive stats for the betterment of the team. But when they were focused on scoring with the same talent and system the year before, Barzal led the team in scoring as rookie. Not Tavares.
 

The Winter Soldier

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I don't know, there are a lot of things to talk about in that playoff series, but not made up things like this.

Bergeron had 2 points at even strength, the rest of his points came on the PP(away from Tavares).

Tavares, Marchand and Pastrnak all had 4 points each at even strength.

I think 10/10 times teams would accept that going into a series, which would say Tavares and company did an excellent job.

The real damage came on the PP, where again, Tavares didn't play.

That also factors in going against McAvoy and Chara, it is a team game after all.

So yeah, a lot of things to talk about, just not made up stuff.

Go back and read through the Bruins game threads, they weren't thrilled with how the team was playing at even strength, including that top line.

Just admit it. Leafs got Tavares to be a difference in the playoffs, to beat Boston specifically. The results speak for themselves. Bergeron was better than Tavares. He won the head to head match up, and really it was not close. Thus the Bruins moved on again.
 
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X66

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Just admit it. Leafs got Tavares to be a difference in the playoffs, to beat Boston specifically. The results speak for themselves. Bergeron was better than Tavares. He won the head to head match up, and really it was not close. Thus the Bruins moved on again.

Don't think the Leafs expected Kadri to take another extending vacation during the playoffs.
 

sparxx87

Don Quixote
Jan 5, 2010
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That had all to do with the Isles change in systems. Isles led the league in GA, players sacrificed their offensive stats for the betterment of the team. But when they were focused on scoring with the same talent and system the year before, Barzal led the team in scoring as rookie. Not Tavares.
Except they had different line mates so the talent wasn’t the same, and Barzal played against 2nd pairings all year.

Interesting that a player like Kadri accepts a different approach more tailored for a two way checking centre, and his number dip is considered regression. Barzal does it and its for the betterment of the team. Always interesting how you choose to spin these things.
Just admit it. Leafs got Tavares to be a difference in the playoffs, to beat Boston specifically. The results speak for themselves. Bergeron was better than Tavares. He won the head to head match up, and really it was not close. Thus the Bruins moved on again.
Admit what? I’m not privy to the discussions of the front office. From my perspective, the Leafs signed an elite centre to help their team offset the loss of JVR and Boxak. It’s hard to argue he didn’t do that.

You’re trying to spin this as Tavares vs Bergeron but it was never that. The Leafs couldn’t kill a penalty and that was their achilles. The team needs to do a better job keeping the puck out of their net and that doesn’t really fall on Tavares... The boy wonder has tasked guys like Tyson Barrie (lol) to help in that regard.

Watching the games might be helpful for you.
 

The Winter Soldier

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C'mon, what kind of comment is this TWS. You used to be much better at this bud, lol.
No, it's the truth. When you make a comment like losing Kadri was the reason why the Leafs lost the series, it looks really silly on your part. Bergeron being better than Tavares was infinitely more a reason. You can give credit to Bergeron, his value does not only lie on the stats he puts up, but by the stats he doesn't put up because he makes Boston so much better, Can you argue the same thing for Tavares? Leafs got less points than the season before with Bozak(who did win a cup) and the results in the playoffs were the same. Infact they were closer to winning game 7 the season before. The bottom line is while Tavares puts up good numbers. He has yet to be a difference in winning the playoffs. This is the true measure of a great player. Not individualistic points.
 

sparxx87

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Jan 5, 2010
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No, it's the truth. When you make a comment like losing Kadri was the reason why the Leafs lost the series, it looks really silly on your part. Bergeron being better than Tavares was infinitely more a reason. You can give credit to Bergeron, his value does not only lie on the stats he puts up, but by the stats he doesn't put up because he makes Boston so much better, Can you argue the same thing for Tavares? Leafs got less points than the season before with Bozak(who did win a cup) and the results in the playoffs were the same. Infact they were closer to winning game 7 the season before. The bottom line is while Tavares puts up good numbers. He has yet to be a difference in winning the playoffs. This is the true measure of a great player. Not individualistic points.
How silly do you look suggesting the 1v1 matchup of Tavares/Bergeron was the reason the Leafs lost the series?

Maybe we’ll add the Leafs futile penalty kill to Tavares’ list of faults? Lol

“Skiiiiiyup”
 

sparxx87

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40BA2EB7-CFB5-4AA0-8793-C7EE5D24F1E7.jpeg
 
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Bood12

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Great post. On top of everything you said - he's a great leader and a good example for the younger players (yes, I know how he left NY but as others have said, NY did themselves no favours over the years). Not just counting the way he acts off the ice - I'm mostly impressed with how he acts on the ice. He rarely takes nights off and even when he does and isn't producing, he is never afraid to get physical with the other team and at least contribute that way. He will grind and wear them down, and isn't afraid to get in someone's face. Its a great example of always working hard and its something that I feel our young stars lack.

He is exactly what the leafs needed and anyone who says that he was a bad signing is completely out to lunch.

guessing you did not watch alot of him prior to being on the Leafs, I am guessing he is different player on the Leafs as I am sure that is where his heart is and was all along, however I can assure you there were many nights on the Islanders he was practically invisible out there.

I know exactly how hyped he was, he was one of the best goal scoring prospects in NHL history.

And the moment he got to play on a team with elite talent, he dropped 47 goals.

Islanders wasted his potential, it's as simple as that.

most players are not able to play along or with 2 elite or possibly elite players in Matthews and Marner, take away 1 of those guys I am pretty sure he is not having the season he is having, granted on the Islanders he was playing with no elite players, however he was blessed to make the jump to playing with 2 and a guy who finished in the top 3 in defensive scoring, most players are not able to do that.

Why pay depth when you can sign a top 10ish center in the league? This line of thinking has never made sense to me really. With Marners demands the Leafs probably wouldnt have Marner signed right now with or without Tavares they are totally separate issues. Passing on a Tavares level talent in order to be able to keep the Connor Browns of the world will never ever make sense.
Marners demands I am guessing are strengthened because of Tavares, it seemed before Tavares signed Marner was talked at maybe around 8.5 Million and Matthews 10, I am guessing Tavares helped both of those guys based on his salary and the point production increase(better leverage).
 
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TheBeastCoast

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guessing you did not watch alot of him prior to being on the Leafs, I am guessing he is different player on the Leafs as I am sure that is where his heart is and was all along, however I can assure you there were many nights on the Islanders he was practically invisible out there.



most players are not able to play along or with 2 elite or possibly elite players in Matthews and Marner, take away 1 of those guys I am pretty sure he is not having the season he is having, granted on the Islanders he was playing with no elite players, however he was blessed to make the jump to playing with 2 and a guy who finished in the top 3 in defensive scoring, most players are not able to do that.


Marners demands I am guessing are strengthened because of Tavares, it seemed before Tavares signed Marner was talked at maybe around 8.5 Million and Matthews 10, I am guessing Tavares helped both of those guys based on his salary and the point production increase(better leverage).
Tavares helped Marner because he played with him and Marner finished with 90 plus points but Dubas is on record that his first meeting as GM was with Marners camp to get a deal done....this is always what Marner wanted.
 

Bood12

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Tavares helped Marner because he played with him and Marner finished with 90 plus points but Dubas is on record that his first meeting as GM was with Marners camp to get a deal done....this is always what Marner wanted.
was salary discussed? so before Tavares came along Marner wanted 10M+ which is what I am assuming he is going for now?
 
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NiL8r87

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Jun 30, 2009
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No, it's the truth. When you make a comment like losing Kadri was the reason why the Leafs lost the series, it looks really silly on your part. Bergeron being better than Tavares was infinitely more a reason. You can give credit to Bergeron, his value does not only lie on the stats he puts up, but by the stats he doesn't put up because he makes Boston so much better, Can you argue the same thing for Tavares? Leafs got less points than the season before with Bozak(who did win a cup) and the results in the playoffs were the same. Infact they were closer to winning game 7 the season before. The bottom line is while Tavares puts up good numbers. He has yet to be a difference in winning the playoffs. This is the true measure of a great player. Not individualistic points.

They both had 5 pts, Tavares had 3 at 5v5 compared to Bergeron's 1, and the shot attempts weren't drastically different. Tavares also had a much lower off zone st% compared to Bergeron.
 
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aufheben

#Norris4Fox
Jan 31, 2013
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What do you take of Barzal coming back with a 60 point season without the insulation of John Tavares?

Did Grabner play with Tavares? I don’t think he did.

How are they surrounded with the same talent when they have different wingers?

Would it be fair to say that Tavares is consistent and will produce good numbers regardless of linemates or competition? ... and that Barzal on the other hand, feasted on lesser competition as a rookie and got a rude awakening once he became the number 1?
I feel like Barzal’s role was more or less the same, and Nelson actually “replaced” Tavares. Trotz did something similar with Backstrom/Kuznetsov IIRC. I may be wrong but I think people just assume Barzal took over for Tavares because he’s their best player.

Like why would you give a 21-year-old the toughest matchups when you have the option to put out Lee-Nelson-Eberle/Bailey instead?
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Jun 29, 2009
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What do you take of Barzal coming back with a 60 point season without the insulation of John Tavares?

Did Grabner play with Tavares? I don’t think he did.

How are they surrounded with the same talent when they have different wingers?

I'd say Barry Trotz's system had a lot to do with the drop in offense, seeing as how the previous year Doug Weight just basically let them run and gun if they wanted to. Barzal's production level at this point in his career is probably somewhere in between the run and gun system and the defensively tight system.

Would it be fair to say that Tavares is consistent and will produce good numbers regardless of linemates or competition? ... and that Barzal on the other hand, feasted on lesser competition as a rookie and got a rude awakening once he became the number 1?

Do people forget that Tavares' first two years in the league weren't anything special? 54 points and 67 points, respectively, aren't exactly better than Barzal's "rude awakening" of 62 points. Let's not act like Tavares came into the league as a point per game player every year, while Barzal "struggled" with 62 points in his sophomore season.
 
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HabsTown

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I won't get involved in this thread (I think Tavares is an amazing player), but just wanted to say kudos to OP for a thoughtful & well written post. It was refreshing to read.
 
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Twowingcantfly

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I mean, last year was his 4th time being the best player on his playoff team that was beaten by a better overall team. I say this without sarcasm - he's been very good in the playoffs, and clutch when it could make a difference.
Dude he was on the ice for 11 goals against in one round vs Boston.
 

Twowingcantfly

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Just admit it. Leafs got Tavares to be a difference in the playoffs, to beat Boston specifically. The results speak for themselves. Bergeron was better than Tavares. He won the head to head match up, and really it was not close. Thus the Bruins moved on again.
When we signed JT, I was shocked. First we had no problem filling the net. Our need was a 2 way center. Not a scorer with holes in his defensive game. I was not surprised Bergeron blew JT away. Marner was defending all series covering for his poor skating. When it was time to score Mitch had no gas left in the tank.
 
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Twowingcantfly

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How silly do you look suggesting the 1v1 matchup of Tavares/Bergeron was the reason the Leafs lost the series?

Maybe we’ll add the Leafs futile penalty kill to Tavares’ list of faults? Lol

“Skiiiiiyup”
Dude. Our team were taking bad penalties after JT giveaways in that Boston series. Watch this upcoming season. Tell me how many times JT stand his ground to screen the opposing net minder(without peeling away). Tell me how many blocked shots he gets. Mitch had more BS in one game than JT had the entire season. He always seem to be covering the wrong man in his own end. You need to watch the games with an open mind. Might be 2067 before we win another cup.
 

Pancakes

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I have been thinking about writing this post for over a month now. I've noticed on different areas of this website, John has been disrespected or generally underrated or underappreciated.




CONCLUSION

Hockey is a team game, and point totals are heavily influenced by the talent around you.

People say this a lot but I'm not sure how true it is. You need good players on your team to win Cups, but I'm not sure you need good players on your team to put up good seasons and high point totals. I think that - aside from rare cases where the chemistry is special - that guys will generally put up the same offensive seasons regardless of who they play with. The most important thing is not linemates but ice time, and the top players get plenty of that no matter where they play.
 

sparxx87

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Jan 5, 2010
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Dude. Our team were taking bad penalties after JT giveaways in that Boston series. Watch this upcoming season. Tell me how many times JT stand his ground to screen the opposing net minder(without peeling away). Tell me how many blocked shots he gets. Mitch had more BS in one game than JT had the entire season. He always seem to be covering the wrong man in his own end. You need to watch the games with an open mind. Might be 2067 before we win another cup.
Please don’t jump into a conversation to dispute a point I wasn’t making. I wasn’t selling Tavares as a defensive stud, I said it was silly to suggest the matchup between him and Bergeron is what decided the series. That is silly.

Who is ‘our team’? Do I know you?

While I appreciate your advice on how to watch the game, I’ve done quite well to this point. Thanks anyway.

I’m also in the wrong industry to consider ever winning a Stanley cup so it’s not something I worry about.
 
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Merrrlin

Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
Jul 2, 2019
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People say this a lot but I'm not sure how true it is. You need good players on your team to win Cups, but I'm not sure you need good players on your team to put up good seasons and high point totals. I think that - aside from rare cases where the chemistry is special - that guys will generally put up the same offensive seasons regardless of who they play with. The most important thing is not linemates but ice time, and the top players get plenty of that no matter where they play.

Interesting. I am sure smarter people than I have data on this, but I simply can't imagine that's true. I think you put Kucherov on a line with RNH and Lucic, with Nurse and Larsson on defence and I just don't see him scoring at near the same clip. Right now he goes on the PP with the 2nd best goalscorer of the decade, and up and coming 40g scorer, a Norris winner, and another good player - there is no way that doesn't boost his stats significantly.

The fact that it boosts him doesn't make him any less the 2nd/3rd best forward in the game, it just means his volume of points will be higher than it would have been with scrubs.
 

The90

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Feb 27, 2017
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I have been thinking about writing this post for over a month now. I've noticed on different areas of this website, John has been disrespected or generally underrated or underappreciated.

What I've read:
  • John got overpaid
  • John never reached his potential
  • John wasn't a great #1 pick
  • John's career has been a letdown

Now just so we're clear, I am not interested in discussing how he left our team...as most Islander fans would agree, we're dissapointed. There's no way around that, even if he did give us some good years. If I had it my way, we would have hired Lou and Trotz 5 years ago and John's story with us may be completely different.

Good. That's out of the way. Lets look at some of John's stats.

I recently read in the prospects forum that a certain prospect is similar to Tavares, and it was meant as an insult. Posters claimed he isn't elite, and that you can find better players in every draft, so it's a disappointing comparison. Let's take a look:


RangeGoalsAssistsPointsP/GP
2 years (164gp)2nd36th7th15th
5 years (401gp)2nd22nd6th8th
10 years (751gp)3rd 16th7th15th
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
*source: QuantHockey.com


tavares.jpg


In the last 10 years, the only players with more goals are:
  • Alex Ovechkin
  • Steven Stamkos

In the last 10 years, the only players with more points are:
  • Sidney Crosby
  • Patrick Kane
  • Alex Ovechkin
  • Claude Giroux
  • Steven Stamkos
  • Nicklas Backstrom

Take a look at that list. Can you name a player on that list who accomplished that with less help? Our Islander teams have been awful. The best players John Tavares has played with are (by P/GP in last 10 years for NYI players):
  • Thomas Vanek (only 47 gp)
  • Mathew Barzal (only 1 season)
  • PA Parentau
  • Matt Moulsen
  • Brad Boyes
  • Kyle Okposo
*source: NHL.com

Look at that list. Those were the best P/GP players that played for the Islanders with John over his last 10 seasons with our franchise. There is no Malkin, no Kessel, no Carlson or Backstrom, no Hedman or Kucherov, no Toews or Keith....PA Parentau and Matt Moulsen...

CONCLUSION

John Tavares has been an elite player his entire career. No one in his class of players (top scorers) over his career even come close to having as little support. Hockey is a team game, and point totals are heavily influenced by the talent around you.
  • John got overpaid
How can you call his contract an overpayment? Look at his goal scoring proficiency!
  • John never reached his potential
Finishing top 15 in the last decade with no help, and top 3 in goals. What more can you really expect from a player, even a #1 OA pick?
  • John wasn't a great #1 pick
See above.
  • John's career has been a letdown
This one is harder to answer. I remember an unbelievable amount of excitement when we drafted him. He didn't bring us a cup, and he left, so as an Islander...well, maybe you could say his time with us was a disappointment. We didn't give him any help.

However, as a player separate from the emotional aspect, I would say he's had a great career. One of the best goal scorers of the decade, and possibly of a generation. In the top 0.1% in terms of production.

John+Tavares+2009+NHL+Draft+Portraits+riPTQR3Twsml.jpg
The hate and ‘he’s not a great #1 player would be much different if he didn’t play for the leafs. That alone means that he gets flack regardless of his contract / how he left.

He absolutely is an exceptional talent.
 
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