The Myth of John Tavares and Unmet Potential - by an Isles Fan

[ThreeLeftSkates]

There are only quotes that every player gives when asked these questions. The only "proof" we have is the GM saying Tavares asked to not be traded, which is worth no more than Bergevin claiming Aho told him he wanted to be in Montreal.

His reception upon his return to the Island was proof of his reptilian nature.

 

[Kamiccolo]

His reception upon his return to the Island was proof of his reptilian nature.

It was proof of several things, but let's not say them out of respect to the OP's discussion.

 

[MikeyMike01]

He never came close to his draft billing as a Crosby/McDavid type, but he’s had a very good career.

I think Hedman would go #1 in a redraft but he’s very clearly #2.

 

[PK Cronin]

Great player, would've loved to see him finish his career as an Islander. That said, he was a "victim" of the changing NHL I think. He's a dominant player below the hash marks in the offensive zone and is adequate to good defensively (despite what some claim). His skating has never been his strong suit, in terms of speed and transition, and I think with the NHL becoming faster it really impacted his ability to take over games as easily (he still can, just not as often as some other stars). He can dominate the score sheet but doesn't typically do so in the flashiest ways and can be pretty unnoticeable and then explode for some points.

Did he meet the expectations that were placed on him? No. He was spoken about in the same breathe, like many are, as Gretzky or Crosby. Could he have been better and more consistent with more support? Probably, but that's the "what if" game. There are a lot of players that produce in a similar manner to him when looking at totals, but he's one of the most well rounded point producers because of his ability to be a play maker or a goal scorer.

His career has been a letdown because he spent the majority of it with the Islanders and they didn't do much of anything. The highlight was a second round appearance. In his first season with Toronto it was another first round exits. How many of the best players are consistently not in the playoffs or knocked out in the first round?

He was "overpaid" because all of those players are overpaid. He's paid exactly what the market commanded though. I think both he and Toronto made a poor choice but the contract itself isn't terrible given the situation.

I've never heard anyone say he wasn't a good #1 overall pick.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Greatest 88 point scorer of all time.

 

[Iapyi]

OP, you posted:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

1. He didn't get overpaid and any rational person knows it. The UFA market is ruled by supply and demand - and Tavares could have gotten 13M$ per season if he just wanted cash. So no.

2. Potential? That's debatable I guess. Has he reached his ceiling? Probably not - very few players do. Sidney Crosby probably didn't reach his full potential either. Doesn't mean it's a disappointment in anyway, that's why we call them ceilings. Still has had a fantastic career.

3. He's a fantastic #1 pick and i've never seen anyone on HF dispute it. There have been many conversations about Tavares vs Hedman - but that's no disrespect to Tavares, it's just the expected norm when there's such a strong top 2 in a draft. Stamkos/Doughty is another example the year prior, and if people argue Doughty would have made a better #1 pick, it doesn't meant Stamkos is an unworthy pick, it just means the top 2 is super strong.

4. Go back to #2. Fantastic career. Letdown? I guess it depends on expectations that some may have placed on him. For the most part he's highly respected and appreciated as a top tier player in this league around here.

Majority of Tavares-bashing threads or discussions have to do with fans upset he left, or fans who don't like the Leafs.

ps - i know you don't believe the bolded points, and are arguing against them. I'm just pointing out - for the most part - those aren't exactly popular beliefs around here, quite the contrary

You nailed this on the head.

Objective hockey people know his value.

 

[Merrrlin]

Did he meet the expectations that were placed on him? No. He was spoken about in the same breathe, like many are, as Gretzky or Crosby. Could he have been better and more consistent with more support? Probably, but that's the "what if" game. There are a lot of players that produce in a similar manner to him when looking at totals, but he's one of the most well rounded point producers because of his ability to be a play maker or a goal scorer.

Can anyone find me an article or something comparing him to Gretzky sometime after his 17th birthday? By the time he was drafted, he was nowhere close to that hype level...We actually had to decide between him and Hedman when the time came...that wouldn't happen with a Gretzky level prospect unless Hedman was suppose to be Orr.

People keep saying this and it just doesn't fit with my memory of the time. The only time his hype was that high was in his first two years in the OHL.

 

[Merrrlin]

His 15 years old season with like 72 goals was great. He did play with 2 or 3 future NHLers but still. The only issue with Tavares is that he was overhyped and some people thought they were getting a Crosby. But, as of today, how far (or close)is he from Crosby, I wonder. I would have loved to see him in action in the OHL and see him become the player he is today.

I would have loved to see him with a Kucherov/MSL/Malkin level player in his early 20s, when most of these guys peak.

 

[FourRings]

Great player, would've loved to see him finish his career as an Islander. That said, he was a "victim" of the changing NHL I think. He's a dominant player below the hash marks in the offensive zone and is adequate to good defensively (despite what some claim). His skating has never been his strong suit, in terms of speed and transition, and I think with the NHL becoming faster it really impacted his ability to take over games as easily (he still can, just not as often as some other stars). He can dominate the score sheet but doesn't typically do so in the flashiest ways and can be pretty unnoticeable and then explode for some points.

Did he meet the expectations that were placed on him? No. He was spoken about in the same breathe, like many are, as Gretzky or Crosby. Could he have been better and more consistent with more support? Probably, but that's the "what if" game. There are a lot of players that produce in a similar manner to him when looking at totals, but he's one of the most well rounded point producers because of his ability to be a play maker or a goal scorer.

His career has been a letdown because he spent the majority of it with the Islanders and they didn't do much of anything. The highlight was a second round appearance. In his first season with Toronto it was another first round exits. How many of the best players are consistently not in the playoffs or knocked out in the first round?

He was "overpaid" because all of those players are overpaid. He's paid exactly what the market commanded though. I think both he and Toronto made a poor choice but the contract itself isn't terrible given the situation.

I've never heard anyone say he wasn't a good #1 overall pick.

Very well said. Completely agree.

 

[Orfieus]

I actually find this to be the most cringy option:

Marner for McAvoy

You got so triggered that you went through my post history...that is f***ing hilarious!

 

[Fixxer]

I would have loved to see him with a Kucherov/MSL/Malkin level player in his early 20s, when most of these guys peak.

Some players had it rough. Look at Nash in Colombus. Iginla wasn't 1st overall but his best center was Craig Conroy, who is a great 2-way but not a proven elite offensive center of his own. A Tavares duo with another elite guy in NYI would have been nice. Possibly a 50 goals season in his early 20s as he got 47 now that he's well surrounded in Toronto.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

This posts actually shows why Giroux is better than John but even more disrespected...

I have been thinking about writing this post for over a month now. I've noticed on different areas of this website, John has been disrespected or generally underrated or underappreciated.

What I've read:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

Now just so we're clear, I am not interested in discussing how he left our team...as most Islander fans would agree, we're dissapointed. There's no way around that, even if he did give us some good years. If I had it my way, we would have hired Lou and Trotz 5 years ago and John's story with us may be completely different.

Good. That's out of the way. Lets look at some of John's stats.

I recently read in the prospects forum that a certain prospect is similar to Tavares, and it was meant as an insult. Posters claimed he isn't elite, and that you can find better players in every draft, so it's a disappointing comparison. Let's take a look:

Range	Goals	Assists	Points	P/GP
2 years (164gp)	2nd	36th	7th	15th
5 years (401gp)	2nd	22nd	6th	8th
10 years (751gp)	3rd	16th	7th	15th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*source: QuantHockey.com

In the last 10 years, the only players with more goals are:

• Alex Ovechkin
• Steven Stamkos

In the last 10 years, the only players with more points are:

• Sidney Crosby
• Patrick Kane
• Alex Ovechkin
• Claude Giroux
• Steven Stamkos
• Nicklas Backstrom

Take a look at that list. Can you name a player on that list who accomplished that with less help? Our Islander teams have been awful. The best players John Tavares has played with are (by P/GP in last 10 years for NYI players):

• Thomas Vanek (only 47 gp)
• Mathew Barzal (only 1 season)
• PA Parentau
• Matt Moulsen
• Brad Boyes
• Kyle Okposo

*source: NHL.com

Look at that list. Those were the best P/GP players that played for the Islanders with John over his last 10 seasons with our franchise. There is no Malkin, no Kessel, no Carlson or Backstrom, no Hedman or Kucherov, no Toews or Keith....PA Parentau and Matt Moulsen...

CONCLUSION

John Tavares has been an elite player his entire career. No one in his class of players (top scorers) over his career even come close to having as little support. Hockey is a team game, and point totals are heavily influenced by the talent around you.

• John got overpaid

How can you call his contract an overpayment? Look at his goal scoring proficiency!

• John never reached his potential

Finishing top 15 in the last decade with no help, and top 3 in goals. What more can you really expect from a player, even a #1 OA pick?

• John wasn't a great #1 pick

See above.

• John's career has been a letdown

This one is harder to answer. I remember an unbelievable amount of excitement when we drafted him. He didn't bring us a cup, and he left, so as an Islander...well, maybe you could say his time with us was a disappointment. We didn't give him any help.

However, as a player separate from the emotional aspect, I would say he's had a great career. One of the best goal scorers of the decade, and possibly of a generation. In the top 0.1% in terms of production.

 

[NyQuil]

Comparing him to McDavid is silly.

Tavares was highly touted but no more so than other terrific underagers like Jason Spezza.

Meanwhile, McDavid came into the league with the expectation that he would dominate immediately.

Hype wise, Tavares is well below McDavid and Crosby and Lindros.

So I’m not sure where those kinds of expectations come from.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

He's an outstanding hockey player. That's good enough for me, the rest is just drama.

That being said, I certainly don't want the Leafs to have any success ever so... Sorry John, you are great but **** you

 

[nobody]

Stamkos' status also depends on how his 30's go but he objectively has a better chance right now and has had a better career.

People will say "oh the talent" and forget that the Lightning were terrible until 2014-15, outside of that weird ECF run in 2011.

Did Marty St. Louis not exist in your reality?

Not trying to get into this conversation but let's be honest. Before Mitch Marner, JT has never seen anyone with 1/100th the talent of MSL. You should know as a Rangers fan just how potent MSL was.

 

[nobody]

Comparing him to McDavid is silly.

Tavares was highly touted but no more so than other terrific underagers like Jason Spezza.

Meanwhile, McDavid came into the league with the expectation that he would dominate immediately.

Hype wise, Tavares is well below McDavid and Crosby and Lindros.

So I’m not sure where those kinds of expectations come from.

Not true what so ever. The John Tavares hype train was obnoxiously crazy. This kid absolutely destroyed the juniors on a bigger level that McDavid had. McDavid hype was more wide spread because social media was a massive deal by the time he came on to the scene. But back in the early-mid 2000s my lord. If you were around anyone in the junior workings, you would hear more than half of them fellatio JT. I'm kind of glad that social media wasn't a thing back when Crosby/ JT were coming through the ranks. The hype train was on a whole different level of nuts.

 

[Menzinger]

The Tavares post elc contract is arguably one of the best valued contracts in the NHL, a fact made particularly glaring being a 1st overall talent

 

[Machinehead]

Did Marty St. Louis not exist in your reality?

Not trying to get into this conversation but let's be honest. Before Mitch Marner, JT has never seen anyone with 1/100th the talent of MSL. You should know as a Rangers fan just how potent MSL was.

The team still sucked and they weren't always together.

 

[nobody]

The team still sucked and they weren't always together.

I'm not arguing this. You're so out to lunch bro.

 

[Cassano]

Comparing him to McDavid is silly.

Tavares was highly touted but no more so than other terrific underagers like Jason Spezza.

Meanwhile, McDavid came into the league with the expectation that he would dominate immediately.

Hype wise, Tavares is well below McDavid and Crosby and Lindros.

So I’m not sure where those kinds of expectations come from.

Tavares broke Gretzky's record for goals in an OHL season.... as a 16 year old.

The hype for him was on par with McDavid's imo.

 

[NyQuil]

That’s funny, I don’t remember it that way.

There were concerns about his speed adjusting to the NHL - legitimate concerns that he addressed directly and successfully during offseason training.

I don’t recall any weaknesses discussed with respect to the other three players.

 

[X66]

That’s funny, I don’t remember it that way.

There were concerns about his speed adjusting to the NHL - legitimate concerns that he addressed directly and successfully during offseason training.

I don’t recall any weaknesses discussed with respect to the other three players.

You're right here and that's how I remember it as well.

In fact, there were many scouts that said if Tavares was born a few days earlier and made the draft one year earlier, he'd go second to Stamkos.

The Tavares hype was real earlier in his junior career but cooled off big time by draft day.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Not true what so ever. The John Tavares hype train was obnoxiously crazy. This kid absolutely destroyed the juniors on a bigger level that McDavid had. McDavid hype was more wide spread because social media was a massive deal by the time he came on to the scene. But back in the early-mid 2000s my lord. If you were around anyone in the junior workings, you would hear more than half of them ******io JT. I'm kind of glad that social media wasn't a thing back when Crosby/ JT were coming through the ranks. The hype train was on a whole different level of nuts.

This was true early on. When he got to London, having been in the spotlight so long, people started looking for things to nitpick. The way his skating was talked about would have one think he was the next Jason Allison. There were also questions about whether or not he was actually trying at that point. People were suggesting he was bored, maybe even upset that he wasn't granted exceptional status for the NHL draft.

Players with the kind of hype you're suggesting don't have people claiming someone like Matt Duchene should be drafted ahead of them, and that was a very real discussion in his draft year.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Tavares broke Gretzky's record for goals in an OHL season.... as a 16 year old.

The wording here is what's important. He broke Gretzky's record for goals in an OHL season BY a 16 year old.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Tavares broke Gretzky's record for goals in an OHL season.... as a 16 year old.

The hype for him was on par with McDavid's imo.

He was being hyped as a generational player before that first OHL season from what I remember here in Toronto