The Myth of John Tavares and Unmet Potential - by an Isles Fan

[J T Money]

The only real knock against Tavares is how he left the Islanders. Swore up and down he wasn't leaving, don't trade me etc and he up and bailed. It was certainly his right to leave but he didn't do himself any favors leaving in that way.

As far as on ice play, he's always been a fantastic player and every team would love to have him.

 

[Merrrlin]

My 2 cents is the mistake the Leafs are making is thinking they can have 4 highly paid forwards. Signing Tavares was the smart move(ie you can never have to many centers or defense) but signing him ment that one of Marner or Nylander needed to be traded and given Marner's season last year looks like Nylander is the odd man out

I would rather have their situation (4 top end forwards including 3 elite + 1 elite defenceman and another couple good ones) than to be one of the many teams paying guys like Komarov/Hayes/JVR big dollars to be middle lineup players.

The only real knock against Tavares is how he left the Islanders. Swore up and down he wasn't leaving, don't trade me etc and he up and bailed. It was certainly his right to leave but he didn't do himself any favors leaving in hat way.

As far as on ice okay, he's always been a fantastic player and every team would love to have him.

I wanted to focus more on his on ice product, especially relating to some of the "overrated" comments or "dissapointment" type comments I've come across recently.

 

[Kamiccolo]

The only real knock against Tavares is how he left the Islanders. Swore up and down he wasn't leaving, don't trade me etc and he up and bailed. It was certainly his right to leave but he didn't do himself any favors leaving in hat way.

As far as on ice okay, he's always been a fantastic player and every team would love to have him.

There are only quotes that every player gives when asked these questions. The only "proof" we have is the GM saying Tavares asked to not be traded, which is worth no more than Bergevin claiming Aho told him he wanted to be in Montreal.

 

[saintunspecified]

There are only quotes that every player gives when asked these questions. The only "proof" we have is the GM saying Tavares asked to not be traded, which is worth no more than Bergevin claiming Aho told him he wanted to be in Montreal.

There are plenty of reasons to believe something like that if one had not particular knowledge of what JT said before, during, and then especially afterward. Read his Player's Tribune article again, and tell me if you think Garth Snow lied about it. No, JT did what he wanted in a way that wasn't savvy. Because he's not savvy. He's not Derrick Jeter who always played his cards tight. JT doesn't even know what's in his hand.

 

[J T Money]

There are only quotes that every player gives when asked these questions. The only "proof" we have is the GM saying Tavares asked to not be traded, which is worth no more than Bergevin claiming Aho told him he wanted to be in Montreal.

It's still affects public perception of the person - which usually contributes to anything Tavares related.

But I do agree with you though.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Well I would say it's wrong because if you only count the 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons combined for everybody Tavares was nowhere close tot he top 20 much less top 10

Pardon?

 

[Kamiccolo]

It's still affects public perception of the person - which usually contributes to anything Tavares related.

But I do agree with you though.

For sure. I just take issue with those who try and spin it as worse than reality to suit an agenda.

 

[Patmac40]

If Ovechkin scores 47, it's a down year. Stamkos just scored 45 and he's "washed up."

That's the level of prospect he was.

Ovie's down year was when he got 33, not when he lead the league with 49. And Stamkos just potted 45 after only scoring 27 which led people to think he wasn't going to always pot as many goals after his injuries but obviously he proved it wrong this year.

Tavares just put up 47 and could put up 50 in the same circumstances I'm sure. The fact that he's 3rd in goals in the last 10 years behind Ovie and Stamkos - two of the greatest goal scoring prospects to enter the league in the last number of years - so I think that while he's not a generational goal scorer, he's pretty damn near the his hype of how good of a goal scorer he should've been in the NHL. If he's only being beat by arguably the best goal scorer of all time and one of the premier snipers of this generation, I think that's probably in the ball park of what we would have expected 10 years ago.

 

[The Macho King]

I guess my question is why is Stamkos a lock but Tavares is not?

In the last 10 years, they are 2nd and 3rd in goals.

5 and 7th in points. Stamkos played fewer games, Tavares had vastly inferior talent around him.

I just don't get why you have one as a lock and the other as a question mark. I can't help but wonder if your team allegiance plays a role?

I'm a Lightning fan but not exactly a Stamkos fan, as any other Bolts fan on here will testify to.

Tavares looks a lot more like Roenick to me than Stamkos, for instance. I don't really care about their aggregate totals - that comes from being in their primes over the course of time we're discussing, and I don't think is terribly informative. Season-by-season numbers tend to be more interesting (which is why Marleau is not a hall of famer - great counting stats, but has never had the seasons that lead to HHoF worthiness).

Tavares is a close case. He has one postseason all-star. And that's it for his trophy case. He has one (maybe two?) top five point finishes. That doesn't scream HHoF to me. Maybe he gets there through accruing stats by the end of his career and ends up with ~1200 points and ~500 goals or something, but I generally take a dim view of counting stats without the elite seasons to match.

 

[Machinehead]

Ovie's down year was when he got 33, not when he lead the league with 49. And Stamkos just potted 45 after only scoring 27 which led people to think he wasn't going to always pot as many goals after his injuries but obviously he proved it wrong this year.

Tavares just put up 47 and could put up 50 in the same circumstances I'm sure. The fact that he's 3rd in goals in the last 10 years behind Ovie and Stamkos - two of the greatest goal scoring prospects to enter the league in the last number of years - so I think that while he's not a generational goal scorer, he's pretty damn near the his hype of how good of a goal scorer he should've been in the NHL. If he's only being beat by arguably the best goal scorer of all time and one of the premier snipers of this generation, I think that's probably in the ball park of what we would have expected 10 years ago.

I disagree but we could argue about what the expectations were all day.

 

[Machinehead]

I'm a Lightning fan but not exactly a Stamkos fan, as any other Bolts fan on here will testify to.

Tavares looks a lot more like Roenick to me than Stamkos, for instance. I don't really care about their aggregate totals - that comes from being in their primes over the course of time we're discussing, and I don't think is terribly informative. Season-by-season numbers tend to be more interesting (which is why Marleau is not a hall of famer - great counting stats, but has never had the seasons that lead to HHoF worthiness).

Tavares is a close case. He has one postseason all-star. And that's it for his trophy case. He has one (maybe two?) top five point finishes. That doesn't scream HHoF to me. Maybe he gets there through accruing stats by the end of his career and ends up with ~1200 points and ~500 goals or something, but I generally take a dim view of counting stats without the elite seasons to match.

This is a fair assessment.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

As a big Tavares fan and Islanders fan who was looking forward to him being drafted #1 overall...

There was a legitimate argument about whether Hedman or Tavares should be taken #1 overall among Islanders fans. More than a simple majority thought JT should've been taken #1 overall but there were many that thought Hedman was the better call, mainly because you win from the net out.

There were a lot of articles in the press debating who should be number 1 overall, not necessarily media spins to make the upcoming draft look more exciting but valid articles about who was going to be the better player.

On this board, I'm pretty sure people were putting him in the 2nd intergenerfranchisal tier, not up there with what McDavid, Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin.

He got a lot of attention to being the first to play among men as a 15 year old but I don't think that sustained throughout his juniors career

So I don't think he was hailed as the next great one but as a great first line center to build around (which we unfortunately didn't do).

 

[Merrrlin]

I'm a Lightning fan but not exactly a Stamkos fan, as any other Bolts fan on here will testify to.

Tavares looks a lot more like Roenick to me than Stamkos, for instance. I don't really care about their aggregate totals - that comes from being in their primes over the course of time we're discussing, and I don't think is terribly informative. Season-by-season numbers tend to be more interesting (which is why Marleau is not a hall of famer - great counting stats, but has never had the seasons that lead to HHoF worthiness).

Tavares is a close case. He has one postseason all-star. And that's it for his trophy case. He has one (maybe two?) top five point finishes. That doesn't scream HHoF to me. Maybe he gets there through accruing stats by the end of his career and ends up with ~1200 points and ~500 goals or something, but I generally take a dim view of counting stats without the elite seasons to match.

So the big difference is the two Richard seasons, it sounds like. Interesting.

In Stamkos 2 Richard seasons, Marty St. Louis had 94 and 74 points.

In fact, in the last 10 years on the Islanders, Tavares had only played with two players who scored over 70 points:

• Bailey (71pts)
• Barzal (86pts)

Stamkos, on the other hand has had 10 players on his teams score 70 or more points in that same time span.

Would you not say that playing your career with...

• Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman

would likely yield higher "elite" seasons than if your top scoring teammates were:

• Matthew Barzal, Josh Bailey, Matt Mouslen, Kyle Okposo and Anders Lee? The top scoring defenceman that Tavares played with was Mark Streit with 56 points...

 

[The Macho King]

So the big difference is the two Richard seasons, it sounds like. Interesting.

In Stamkos 2 Richard seasons, Marty St. Louis had 94 and 74 points.

In fact, in the last 10 years on the Islanders, Tavares had only played with two players who scored over 70 points:

• Bailey (71pts)
• Barzal (86pts)

Stamkos, on the other hand has had 10 players on his teams score 70 or more points in that same time span.

Would you not say that playing your career with...

• Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman

would likely yield higher "elite" seasons than if your top scoring teammates were:

• Matthew Barzal, Josh Bailey, Matt Mouslen, Kyle Okposo and Anders Lee? The top scoring defenceman that Tavares played with was Mark Streit with 56 points...

You don't get bonus points for playing with a shit team. And no - the big difference isn't just "two Richard seasons" - Stamkos has numerous great seasons with top 5/10 in points, while Tavares has very few.

Tavares doesn't get credit for performance he didn't have.

 

[Fixxer]

Yes, he is a terrific player and definitely gets unwarranted negative attention from some, but he most certainly did not meet the draft hype he had behind him. Had he, he would've been a Connor McDavid level of a player.

Exactly.. the MAIN difference between a McDavid and Tavares is skating. It was an issue and always was.. but what a great hockey player. Scored 47 goals last year in Toronto. Like.. he may not be a Sid/Geno/Ovi type of player but wow!!
I heard Matt Moulson didn't hate playing with Tavares. No Tavares in NYI and it's bad. Okposo was their hope before Tavares came over. Tavares an elite goal scorer and PPG player.

 

[Merrrlin]

You don't get bonus points for playing with a **** team. And no - the big difference isn't just "two Richard seasons" - Stamkos has numerous great seasons with top 5/10 in points, while Tavares has very few.

Tavares doesn't get credit for performance he didn't have.

Ahh, so actual talent isn't a factor when it comes to getting into the Hall. . Good to know. So the fact that he put up top 3 goals and 15th in points with bad teammates doesn't mean anything, and neither does consistency.

So now you've basically said, to make the Hall, it's all about hardware and top finishes. Not necessarily where you finish, it counts along as it's with some range that you arbitrarily made up, and didn't bother to actually check if your argument rang true.

I'm not buying your argument, and I don't think the voters will either. We will have to wait and see.

 

[Merrrlin]

Exactly.. the MAIN difference between a McDavid and Tavares is skating. It was an issue and always was.. but what a great hockey player. Scored 47 goals last year in Toronto. Like.. he may not be a Sid/Geno/Ovi type of player but wow!!
I heard Matt Moulson didn't hate playing with Tavares. No Tavares in NYI and it's bad. Okposo was their hope before Tavares came over. Tavares an elite goal scorer and PPG player.

I obviously followed Tavares career through the OHL closely, knowing we might have a chance. After his 17 year old season, I don't remember any comparisons close to McDavid, so I am not sure why that is the standard.

 

[The Macho King]

Ahh, so actual talent isn't a factor when it comes to getting into the Hall. . Good to know. So the fact that he put up top 3 goals and 15th in points with bad teammates doesn't mean anything, and neither does consistency.

So now you've basically said, to make the Hall, it's all about hardware and top finishes. Not necessarily where you finish, it counts along as it's with some range that you arbitrarily made up, and didn't bother to actually check if your argument rang true.

I'm not buying your argument, and I don't think the voters will either. We will have to wait and see.

I'm not saying he doesn't have *a* case (and let's face it, playing for Toronto is going to help his case more than a little bit). I was directly asked the difference between Stamkos' (in my view) lock for the HHoF and Tavares being - as of now a no - and likely gets in as more of a compiler. And the difference comes down to peak. Consistency is great, and a factor in the Hall. There's a reason Cheechoo isn't in despite a high peak. Or Vinny Lecavalier being an unlikely candidate despite a couple of very good seasons.

To be - at 27-29 - a HHoF player, you need a high peak. I think Stamkos has cleared the threshold. I don't think Tavares has yet. I also don't expect to see a second peak coming from him, but I think his prime can likely extend 4+ more seasons where his consistency will be enough for most voters.

 

[X66]

You don't get bonus points for playing with a **** team. And no - the big difference isn't just "two Richard seasons" - Stamkos has numerous great seasons with top 5/10 in points, while Tavares has very few.

Tavares doesn't get credit for performance he didn't have.

That's definitely not fair.

Of course that stuff matters.

You're telling me who Stamkos got to play with doesn't help him over Tavares?

These were both of their most played with teammates(naming the highest profile)

St.Louis: 5379 minutes in his career
Hedman: 3249 minutes in his career
Lecavalier: 1376 minutes in his career
Kucherov: 2457 minutes in his career
Drouin: 567 minutes in his career
JT Miller: 721 minutes in his career
Point: 473 minutes in his career

Tavares? lol

Moulson: 4573 minutes in his career
Parenteau: 2119 minutes in his career
Streit: 1561 minutes in his career
Okposo: 4381 minutes in his career
Comeau: 551 minutes in his career
Nielson: 398 minutes in his career
Bailey: 3400 minutes in his career
Vanek: 798 minutes in his career
Boyes: 730 minutes in his career
Lee: 2420 minutes in his career
Strome: 793 minutes in his career
Nelson: 636 minutes in his career
Barzal : 285 minutes in his career

 

[Merrrlin]

That's definitely not fair.

Of course that stuff matters.

You're telling me who Stamkos got to play with doesn't help him over Tavares?

These were both of their most played with teammates(naming the highest profile)

St.Louis: 5379 minutes in his career
Hedman: 3249 minutes in his career
Lecavalier: 1376 minutes in his career
Kucherov: 2457 minutes in his career
Drouin: 567 minutes in his career
JT Miller: 721 minutes in his career
Point: 473 minutes in his career

Tavares? lol

Moulson: 4573 minutes in his career
Parenteau: 2119 minutes in his career
Streit: 1561 minutes in his career
Okposo: 4381 minutes in his career
Comeau: 551 minutes in his career
Nielson: 398 minutes in his career
Bailey: 3400 minutes in his career
Vanek: 798 minutes in his career
Boyes: 730 minutes in his career
Lee: 2420 minutes in his career
Strome: 793 minutes in his career
Nelson: 636 minutes in his career
Barzal : 285 minutes in his career

Nice post.

I also disagree with his notion that people (including Hall voters and peers) ignore this aspect when evaluating a player's legacy.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Nothing against either but I am pulling for Rielly.

Not gonna lie, I agree. I just think everybody just wants it to be one of Matthews or Tavares which would likely make one of them captain. But like I said, I believe Rielly should get it.

 

[The Macho King]

Nice post.

I also disagree with his notion that people (including Hall voters and peers) ignore this aspect when evaluating a player's legacy.

True. Hence why Marcel Dionne is held in such high esteem vis a vis Guy Lafleur.

 

[Analyst365]

That's noble of OP to be by and Isles fan. Kudos for being honest about yourself.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Look at the talent Tavares was surrounded by.

I always wondered how Tavares' numbers would look if he was drafted by Tampa.

Tavares playing for the Islanders probably helped his chances at a Hart if anything.

 

[Fixxer]

I obviously followed Tavares career through the OHL closely, knowing we might have a chance. After his 17 year old season, I don't remember any comparisons close to McDavid, so I am not sure why that is the standard.

His 15 years old season with like 72 goals was great. He did play with 2 or 3 future NHLers but still. The only issue with Tavares is that he was overhyped and some people thought they were getting a Crosby. But, as of today, how far (or close)is he from Crosby, I wonder. I would have loved to see him in action in the OHL and see him become the player he is today.