The Myth of John Tavares and Unmet Potential - by an Isles Fan

[Machinehead]

Look at the talent Tavares was surrounded by.

I always wondered how Tavares' numbers would look if he was drafted by Tampa.

Look at the talent he was surrounded by last year and he still scored in the 80's.

That's what he is and that's fine. He's headed straight for the Hall of Fame with that.

 

[Merrrlin]

How do you get these stats. I went to NHL.com and did the total points for guys in both 2009/10 and 2010/11 and Tavares placed 41st for total points

The source below, which is QuantHockey, has an option that lets you do "Last # of Seasons"

NHL Player Stats in Last 5 Seasons

 

[boredmale]

The source below, which is QuantHockey, has an option that lets you do "Last # of Seasons"

NHL Player Stats in Last 5 Seasons

Well I would say it's wrong because if you only count the 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons combined for everybody Tavares was nowhere close tot he top 20 much less top 10

 

[Merrrlin]

Well I would say it's wrong because if you only count the 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons combined for everybody Tavares was nowhere close tot he top 20 much less top 10

I don't really understand the point you are making. Last 10 seasons is a sum of all 10 seasons.

 

[saintunspecified]

hows he do in the playoffs?

I mean, last year was his 4th time being the best player on his playoff team that was beaten by a better overall team. I say this without sarcasm - he's been very good in the playoffs, and clutch when it could make a difference.

 

[varano]

I think that the "knock" on his legacy is from Islanders fans that thought that one player can win you a cup. John extracted water from a rock in the wang days.... With a better GM, Ownership group, and coach... The isles would have probably had more playoff runs. The arena situation didnt help either.

 

[Merrrlin]

hows he do in the playoffs?

At the NHL level, his stats are:

31gp - 13g - 14a - 27pts

Not sure how to compare that to others, someone smarter than me could probably do a better job. 4 GWG in 31gp as well.

 

[X66]

Look at the talent he was surrounded by last year and he still scored in the 80's.

That's what he is and that's fine. He's headed straight for the Hall of Fame with that.

These points ignore all context.

He scored 88 points, 47 goals, 8th in even strength points.

All of that in a year where is PP time was down, and he wasn't one of the main focal points.

That's all with his first year with the team, learning on the fly.

Imagine Tavares with this type of talent in his early 20s.

 

[Machinehead]

These points ignore all context.

He scored 88 points, 47 goals, 8th in even strength points.

All of that in a year where is PP time was down, and he wasn't one of the main focal points.

That's all with his first year with the team, learning on the fly.

Imagine Tavares with this type of talent in his early 20s.

We wouldn't have to imagine anything if he was the type of talent we were told he was in 2006, 2007.

I think everyone is forgetting how hyped he was.

 

[The Macho King]

Look at the talent he was surrounded by last year and he still scored in the 80's.

That's what he is and that's fine. He's headed straight for the Hall of Fame with that.

Is he? Not criticizing, I'm actually curious how his resume stacks up with other HHOFers.

 

[X66]

We wouldn't have to imagine anything if he was the type of talent we were told he was in 2006, 2007.

I think everyone is forgetting how hyped he was.

I know exactly how hyped he was, he was one of the best goal scoring prospects in NHL history.

And the moment he got to play on a team with elite talent, he dropped 47 goals.

Islanders wasted his potential, it's as simple as that.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Is he? Not criticizing, I'm actually curious how his resume stacks up with other HHOFers.

How is Stamkos a lock for the HHoF (i've seen you say this a few times) but Tavares is more of a question mark who needs his resume compared?

 

[Machinehead]

Is he? Not criticizing, I'm actually curious how his resume stacks up with other HHOFers.

Right now, his career PPG rank is right in between Sergei Federov and Joe Thornton.

You would expect him to decline some but if he loses 0.1 PPG over the next 7-10 years, that gives him a very similar career to Joe Nieuwendyk and Norm Ullman.

Like anybody in their 20's in depends on his decline, but I give him better than a 50/50 chance right now. If he stays consistent in his 30's, he's a shoo-in.

 

[boredmale]

I think the story of Tavares career was he was a guy who for the most part finished top 15-20 in scoring with a couple top 10(including 2nd) seasons and a couple out of the top 20 seasons. Last year when all of a sudden he got his injection of finally having a "good linemate" he finished 16th which was on par for the rest of his career

 

[Machinehead]

I know exactly how hyped he was, he was one of the best goal scoring prospects in NHL history.

And the moment he got to play on a team with elite talent, he dropped 47 goals.

Islanders wasted his potential, it's as simple as that.

If Ovechkin scores 47, it's a down year. Stamkos just scored 45 and he's "washed up."

That's the level of prospect he was.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I dont think JT is underpaid or wasnt worth the #1 pick. I just think that Toronto would have been smarter to pass on him and use that money on Marner, D, and depth on the 3/4th lines.

 

[Merrrlin]

I think the story of Tavares career was he was a guy who for the most part finished top 15-20 in scoring with a couple top 10(including 2nd) seasons and a couple out of the top 20 seasons. Last year when all of a sudden he got his injection of finally having a "good linemate" he finished 16th which was on par for the rest of his career

Consistency is valuable. You neglected he finished 3rd in goals.

 

[The Macho King]

How is Stamkos a lock for the HHoF (i've seen you say this a few times) but Tavares is more of a question mark who needs his resume compared?

Find me one player with Stamkos' resume that wasn't in as a first ballot. They've always been compared, but despite that, Stamkos has been a more productive player almost their entire respective careers. 4 top 5 scoring finishes, 5 or 6 top 5 goal scoring finishes (with 4 of those being first or second), career PPG player (with only like seven other players in this generation), etc. I don't know of a single player that has had to wait more than the three years to get let into the Hall.

You can point to "Stamkos being a product of XYZ", but despite that, he still outscored Tavares again, despite Tavares finally having "linemates".

 

[boredmale]

Consistency is valuable. You neglected he finished 3rd in goals.

On the Islanders he finished 3rd and 4th in goals in his 2 best seasons goal wise, your point?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I dont think JT is underpaid or wasnt worth the #1 pick. I just think that Toronto would have been smarter to pass on him and use that money on Marner, D, and depth on the 3/4th lines.

Why pay depth when you can sign a top 10ish center in the league? This line of thinking has never made sense to me really. With Marners demands the Leafs probably wouldnt have Marner signed right now with or without Tavares they are totally separate issues. Passing on a Tavares level talent in order to be able to keep the Connor Browns of the world will never ever make sense.

 

[Machinehead]

Stamkos' status also depends on how his 30's go but he objectively has a better chance right now and has had a better career.

People will say "oh the talent" and forget that the Lightning were terrible until 2014-15, outside of that weird ECF run in 2011.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Why pay depth when you can sign a top 10ish center in the league? This line of thinking has never made sense to me really. With Marners demands the Leafs probably wouldnt have Marner signed right now with or without Tavares they are totally separate issues. Passing on a Tavares level talent in order to be able to keep the Connor Browns of the world will never ever make sense.

I just think they were a young team that was still building a consistent winner and the JT signing I felt it was like they were trying to please the fans rather than continue to build the team the right way. I didnt think it was the right move at that time. Building through UFA is a costly way to build a team and doesnt always work out very well.

 

[boredmale]

Why pay depth when you can sign a top 10ish center in the league? This line of thinking has never made sense to me really. With Marners demands the Leafs probably wouldnt have Marner signed right now with or without Tavares they are totally separate issues. Passing on a Tavares level talent in order to be able to keep the Connor Browns of the world will never ever make sense.

My 2 cents is the mistake the Leafs are making is thinking they can have 4 highly paid forwards. Signing Tavares was the smart move(ie you can never have to many centers or defense) but signing him ment that one of Marner or Nylander needed to be traded and given Marner's season last year looks like Nylander is the odd man out

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

i mean hes only been out of new york for 1 season and has already set new career highs in goals, points and plus minus

 

[Merrrlin]

Find me one player with Stamkos' resume that wasn't in as a first ballot. They've always been compared, but despite that, Stamkos has been a more productive player almost their entire respective careers. 4 top 5 scoring finishes, 5 or 6 top 5 goal scoring finishes (with 4 of those being first or second), career PPG player (with only like seven other players in this generation), etc. I don't know of a single player that has had to wait more than the three years to get let into the Hall.

You can point to "Stamkos being a product of XYZ", but despite that, he still outscored Tavares again, despite Tavares finally having "linemates".

I guess my question is why is Stamkos a lock but Tavares is not?

In the last 10 years, they are 2nd and 3rd in goals.

5 and 7th in points. Stamkos played fewer games, Tavares had vastly inferior talent around him.

I just don't get why you have one as a lock and the other as a question mark. I can't help but wonder if your team allegiance plays a role?