The Jim Benning and Management Megathread - A step back towards the playoffs

[banme*]

My point is our farm team doesn't develop top 6 forwards/top 4 defensemen.

I think that's more due to our drafting than developing.

 

[MS]

Disagree.

Who did we really develop?

Cory Schneider.
Kesler, Bieksa, and Burrows really only played in the AHL during the lockout year.
Jannik Hansen only became a 3rd/4th liner. Not a top 6 impact player.

Our drafting has been poor, which is a root cause for us having not developed well, but some of the prospects we have tried developing down there like Hodgson and Schroeder (moreso recent years) haven't panned out. Going back 10 years ago we failed to develop the likes of Nathan Smith (who was a terrible draft pick if you ask me), Brandon Reid, Steve Kariya, Fedor Fedorov.

Kirill Koltsov wasn't given an opportunity until he bolted to Russia.

Michael Grabner spent years in our development system and he ended up on waivers in the NHL. Outside of one year he hasn't done much.

How well have we done drafting in the late 1st round, 2nd round, and 3rd round? These are guys that we draft and expect to have to develop. We really don't have much to show from these rounds. Some part poor scouting, some part poor development.

I've made this point before so I'll quote myself :

Most teams have more 'Jordan Schroeder' types who develop fairly well, play well in the AHL, but can't quite stick in the NHL past 100 or so games than they do guys that actually stick as full-time NHL players.

But from 2001 to 2008, we were the exact opposite.

We had only 15 of 56 draft picks become even serviceable regular AHL players, which is horrible. But 10 of those 15 guys have stuck as NHL regulars for 5+ seasons, which is a ridiculously absurd hit rate. And of those 5 that didn't make it, a couple (McIvor and Bliznak) ridiculously overachieved even to get into an NHL game.

The player development we were getting through that time was obscenely good. Especially considering that none of those guys were drafted higher than #10 overall and we were picking in the bottom of the first round most years.

We were pissing most of our picks down a rathole through that decade, but any time we did luck into a player, we developed him very well.

15 of 56 draft picks becoming serviceable AHL players is ATROCIOUS. Like, absolutely horrible.

10 of 15 serviceable AHL players becoming long-term NHL regulars is absurdly good.

Basically anyone of any quality coming through the organization did well and exceeded expectations. The problem was that we drafted almost nobody of quality.

 

[WTG]

Although it's uncommon, both the Kings and Flyers drafted franchise centers in Kopitar and Giroux respectively. I'm sure there are other good examples.

The way Horvat is developing, I could see him having a legit shot in reaching the level of a Patrice Bergeron or Ryan Kesler........or the 1994 version of Linden. Is that franchise level? Most would say no, but if you get a couple of Bo Horvat-like center prospects on this team, then I think this could work as well.

2011 Boston for instance - top two centers were Bergeron and Krejicki. Neither guy is a franchise center, but both are close to that level.

Ideally, you would have 1-2 franchise centers on the team but if you don't have one, I don't think it's the end of the world provided that you have 4 deep lines and 3 solid defensive pairings. #BostonModel.

I totally get what you are saying.

But we are banking a lot on Horvat turning out to become this Kesler type center.

My thought process of building a team goes as follows.

We suck, we get a #1 overall pick. Chyrun and Matthews are neck in neck for going first overall. I take Matthews.

We traded Hamhuis and Vrbata for 2 first rounders and we take defenseman with those picks.

That to me is a great way of solidifying the future.

 

[MS]

I totally get what you are saying.

But we are banking a lot on Horvat turning out to become this Kesler type center.

My thought process of building a team goes as follows.

We suck, we get a #1 overall pick. Chyrun and Matthews are neck in neck for going first overall. I take Matthews.

We traded Hamhuis and Vrbata for 2 first rounders and we take defenseman with those picks.

That to me is a great way of solidifying the future.

There is no way we will out-suck teams like Phoenix and Buffalo next year.

Worst-case scenario (or best-case depending on your point of view) is a #5-8 overall pick. I'd guess we'll be picking somewhere in the 10-12 range.

 

[Jyrki21]

There is no way we will out-suck teams like Phoenix and Buffalo next year.

Worst-case scenario (or best-case depending on your point of view) is a #5-8 overall pick. I'd guess we'll be picking somewhere in the 10-12 range.

Injuries happen a lot to this team, and the Canucks' top forwards are both in the danger zone age-wise for that kind of thing. Really bottoming out isn't that unrealistic. The 1997-98 and 1998-99 Canucks had a lot of talent on the roster... and they were horrible. It can happen...!

 

[y2kcanucks]

I've made this point before so I'll quote myself :



15 of 56 draft picks becoming serviceable AHL players is ATROCIOUS. Like, absolutely horrible.

10 of 15 serviceable AHL players becoming long-term NHL regulars is absurdly good.

Basically anyone of any quality coming through the organization did well and exceeded expectations. The problem was that we drafted almost nobody of quality.

Or perhaps we simply couldn't develop them into being quality players.

 

[arsmaster*]

There is no way we will out-suck teams like Phoenix and Buffalo next year.

Worst-case scenario (or best-case depending on your point of view) is a #5-8 overall pick. I'd guess we'll be picking somewhere in the 10-12 range.

Every team who misses is in the lottery for the first 3 picks. The ghost of Gilbert Perrault may smile on us this year.

 

[arsmaster*]

Or perhaps we simply couldn't develop them into being quality players.

I knew this would be the response.

 

[Horse McHindu]

I totally get what you are saying.

But we are banking a lot on Horvat turning out to become this Kesler type center.

My thought process of building a team goes as follows.

We suck, we get a #1 overall pick. Chyrun and Matthews are neck in neck for going first overall. I take Matthews.

We traded Hamhuis and Vrbata for 2 first rounders and we take defenseman with those picks.

That to me is a great way of solidifying the future.

The problem with deliberate tanking is that it doesn't guarantee you anything. For every Chicago Blackhawks or Pittsburgh Penguins success story, there are far more examples of failures, and even in the case of Chicago/Pittsburgh, they went years upon years of disasterous seasons, and they just so happened to draft Generational talents.

The way I see it, this season is a win-win situation for the Canucks. If the Canucks make the playoffs this season, guys like Horvat, Baertschi, Virtanen, Corrado, and Vey get more playoff experience.

If we are out of it by the deadline, we will stockpile on picks:

-Vrbata will be moved for a low 1st round pick + "B" level prospect (basically, similar deal to what the Canes got for Sekara)

-Higgins will be moved for a 3rd rounder......although I suspect that this may happen much sooner than later if Virtanen + 1 more kid proves worthy in training camp.

-Prust will be moved for a 2nd or 3rd.

As much as I want to move Hamhuis, I think it would be too detrimental to the Canucks if they did that. Our blueline is extremely thin as it is, and moving any of Hamhuis, Edler, or Tanev could actually be extremely detrimental to the rebuilding process as you'd have too many of our remaining D playing in roles that they are too green/ill-suited for.

 

[absolute garbage]

Or perhaps we simply couldn't develop them into being quality players.

Your avatar is the reaction for this post.

Like, when a draft pick is so hopeless that he is not able to play hockey as a profession couple of years from the draft, there's just nothing you can do. The base talent level required simply is not there.

Once a prospect turns pro, that's where most of the "hands-on development" truly begins. But they have to get there somewhat individually relying on their talent and work ethic, and that's what separates the young players that are worth spending development time and money on from turds that are not.

 

[MS]

Or perhaps we simply couldn't develop them into being quality players.

If a player is never good enough to be worth signing to a pro contract or take a regular shift in the AHL, it isn't development. It's just a bad pick.

You can't polish a turd. The guys who have a base level of talent and ability moving up levels are the guys you can do something with. And we did.

 

[WTG]

Oilers couldn't out suck the yotes but they still won the lottery.

Anyway the lottery is top 3 now so there is a good chance that we can move up if we do end up bottom 5 in the league

 

[me2]

If they're seeded 8th-10th worst in the league, the team will at least have three lottery shots at getting into the Top 3. I haven't looked at the odds, but I bet they'd have around a 15% chance of that happening. You never know.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/m_news.htm?id=728795


10th is 2.7% in round one. Tricky as the odds increase a random amount depending one who wins round 1 and 2. Probably looking around 9-10% for 10th.

13-15% sounds about right for 8th.

 

[Toxic0n]

The way I see it, this season is a win-win situation for the Canucks. If the Canucks make the playoffs this season, guys like Horvat, Baertschi, Virtanen, Corrado, and Vey get more playoff experience.

If we are out of it by the deadline, we will stockpile on picks:

-Prust will be moved for a 2nd or 3rd.

Prust for a 2nd? For real? And then we all woke up.

Also, there is option number three. We are just out/in of the playoffs at the deadline, Benning stands pat and lets assets walk away or even worse, trades futures for immediate help. Or "help", cause we know how Benning does trades. Maybe he will trade Vrbata for 2nd + a couple more face punchers to help out Dorsett. "The market wasn't there"

 

[me2]

Prust for a 2nd? For real?

Mentoring does not come cheap.

 

[Ho Borvat]

Prust for a 2nd? For real? And then we all woke up.

Mentoring does not come cheap.

Well, it would be a package deal because Dorsett and Miller are part of the human mentorpede as well....

So a 2nd round pick seems fair.

 

[Verviticus]

lmao, cody franson is about to sign a contract that is categorically superior to sbisas

 

[Drop the Sopel]

I can't believe Benning got a 2nd Rd pick for Bieksa, considering the contract a superior player in franson just signed. How did he convince a GM into taking that albatross with the righty franson just sitting there waiting to sign a cheap deal?

 

[Ainec]

Because Bieksa isn't that bad. I think he's a good fit for Anaheim especially paired with a reliable defenseman in Lindholm

Franson is dumpster fire Bieksa-Sbisa esque in the defensive zone

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Because Bieksa isn't that bad. I think he's a good fit for Anaheim especially paired with a reliable defenseman in Lindholm

Franson is dumpster fire Bieksa-Sbisa esque in the defensive zone

Isn't that bad at what? He sucks defensively and produces very little offense. He's a poor mans Franson.

 

[canucksfan]

I can't believe Benning got a 2nd Rd pick for Bieksa, considering the contract a superior player in franson just signed. How did he convince a GM into taking that albatross with the righty franson just sitting there waiting to sign a cheap deal?

Bieksa is not that bad. He played with Sbisa for most of the year. Put him along side a reliable d man and he shoud be fine.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Bieksa is not that bad. He played with Sbisa for most of the year. Put him along side a reliable d man and he shoud be fine.

He could be fine, or he could be utter *******. That's Bieksa.

And keep in mind we got the best version of Bieksa. Not the one locked up into his late 30's.

 

[Ainec]

Isn't that bad at what? He sucks defensively and produces very little offense. He's a poor mans Franson.

They're not remotely the same type of player so that doesn't make sense

A 1 year cap hit of 4.6M with real $2.5M especially for a team like Anaheim with an internal cap is a steal in their eyes hardly an albatross as you say.

San Jose also tried to acquire Bieksa and I'm sure other teams would have paid a 2nd as well


There's like 5 players every year that returns 1st and 2nd at the trade deadline who are far worst. Take Franson's trade to Nashville

 

[Drop the Sopel]

There's like 5 players every year that returns 1st and 2nd at the trade deadline who are far worst. Take Franson's trade to Nashville

Really? Who were these players last season?

Cody Franson is a better dman than Bieksa. The only reason Benning stole the 2nd from Bob Murray is because he convinced him Bieksa's intangibles made him worth it.

Terrible trade by Murray with Franson sitting there waiting to be signed.

 

[Ryp37]

Murray has plenty of offensive D he didnt need Franson

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