The great Kadri vs Kerfoot debate thread.

[Gary Nylund]

I hope you realize the double standard you're exhibiting. You judge the stats that others use in complete isolation, with no context, with no adjustments, with little understanding of them, and declare them useless because they don't tell you something you personally believe that they're not even designed to tell you, and then you make a whole bunch of excuses and adjustments and exclusions and add a bunch of context when you declare TOI awesome and then it doesn't tell you what you want.

This is all completely false

PP P/60, past 3 seasons:

Kerfoot: 4.91
Kadri: 4.70

This is what Zeke so often does - throw out a bunch of numbers that show a small part of a much bigger picture without saying anything. This raises the question - what's your point?

You do realize that you're comparing an established player's ice time to a rookie, right?

He's not a rookie any more, I just gave the stats for Kerfoot's entire career, I'd hate for you to complain that I left out anything. But you're right that Kadri's more experienced. Perhaps it's not fair to compare these players at all, let's just agree that Kadri's better. Oh wait, we already did.

It's pretty funny that we agree that Kadri is the better player, yet you're giving me a hard time without questioning Zeke how his "analysis" led him to the wrong conclusion. Perhaps you can explain why this is?

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Yeah, he's always been a great teammate and plays more of an old school type of game.

Is it safe to say that Colorado fans are happy with the deal? It's been mostly viewed as a disappointment from the Leaf side.

Yeah most people are pleased with the deal. Barrie would have been a bigger loss had it not been for the emergence of the young defenceman on the Avs.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Barrie helps lead you guys on a run in the playoffs though.

 

[zeke]

Do I have any other suggestions? Absolutely,

Suggest away.

answer my question which I've repeated several times - how do you weight these numbers? What's your formula? I've asked you this more than once and you keep ignoring the question while badgering me to answer your questions. You've left several of my questions unanswered but I'll let you off the hook for the other is you just answer this one.

Without this, your numbers mean nothing. You give us the numbers, and then say Kerfoot>Kadri without telling us how you got there.

I mean i told you how I got there. When used in very similar roles, kadri has proved to be slightly better offensively, while kerfoot has proven to be the better two way player.

There's no formula. And there's no formula needed.

I'm telling you my formula - ignore xgf% and everything else as in this case (and probably most cases), ice time tells you all you need to know.

So the best way we have to compare players is total ice time?

Hmm. Agree to disagree.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This raises the question - what's your point?

Kerfoot has produced better than Kadri on the PP since he entered the league, despite worse linemates.

But you're right that Kadri's more experienced. Perhaps it's not fair to compare these players at all, let's just agree that Kadri's better.

More experienced doesn't always mean better, which is one of the countless ways your "TOI tells all" claim is horrible.

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah most people are pleased with the deal. Barrie would have been a bigger loss had it not been for the emergence of the young defenceman on the Avs.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Barrie helps lead you guys on a run in the playoffs though.

That would be nice

 

[Gary Nylund]

Suggest away.

I mean i told you how I got there. When used in very similar roles, kadri has proved to be slightly better offensively, while kerfoot has proven to be the better two way player.

He hasn't proven that at all.

There's no formula. And there's no formula needed.

So the best way we have to compare players is total ice time?

Hmm. Agree to disagree.

Got it, that is convenient. That way you can show us xgf% numbers, tell us that they need to be adjusted for this, that and the other thing without having any methodology for this whatsoever. You can also chide people for using raw PTS or +- or whatever else because "we have much better tools now" but use those numbers yourself when you like what they say. You can also talk about ES numbers in one post ignoring PP data and in another post do the opposite because apparently, consistency isn't important. There's probably not even one single person in the entire hockey world that agrees with you that Kerfoot is better than Kadri but you can arrogantly dismiss all other opinions, copy paste some numbers, say that you've "adjusted" them and they prove that Kerfoot is better when the truth is that you haven't proved a thing.


Best of all, you can keep talking about how dumb the average fan is, thereby hoisting yourself on a pedestal above the rest of us mere mortals without realizing that you're no better or smarter than the rest of us. You're not fooling me though, and I doubt you're fooling anyone else either.

Kerfoot has produced better than Kadri on the PP since he entered the league, despite worse linemates.

More experienced doesn't always mean better, which is one of the countless ways your "TOI tells all" claim is horrible.

You were the one who had an issue with comparing an experienced player to a rookie. Of course more experienced doesn't always mean better. Agree 100%, also agree that Kadri is better than Kerfoot, how wonderful that you and I keep finding more common ground.

 

[zeke]

He hasn't proven that at all.



Got it, that is convenient. That way you can show us xgf% numbers, tell us that they need to be adjusted for this, that and the other thing without having any methodology for this whatsoever. You can also chide people for using raw PTS or +- or whatever else because "we have much better tools now" but use those numbers yourself when you like what they say. You can also talk about ES numbers in one post ignoring PP data and in another post do the opposite because apparently, consistency isn't important. There's probably not even one single person in the entire hockey world that agrees with you that Kerfoot is better than Kadri but you can arrogantly dismiss all other opinions, copy paste some numbers, say that you've "adjusted" them and they prove that Kerfoot is better when the truth is that you haven't proved a thing.


Best of all, you can keep talking about how dumb the average fan is, thereby hoisting yourself on a pedestal above the rest of us mere mortals without realizing that you're no better or smarter than the rest of us. You're not fooling me though, and I doubt you're fooling anyone else either.



You were the one who had an issue with comparing an experienced player to a rookie. Of course more experienced doesn't always mean better. Agree 100%, also agree that Kadri is better than Kerfoot, how wonderful that you and I keep finding more common ground.

Xgf% isn't actually controversial, fyi.

 

[nsleaf]

Um ... ahh, never mind.

Sorry, perhaps I was not clear enough in my assessment of the Kadri trade.
Here is a visual device to help you out since your response seems a bit confused.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Xgf% isn't actually controversial, fyi.

Not sure why you're quoting me as I never said it was.

Stats are never controversial, they're just stats. How some people interpret (or adjust ) them though, that's another story altogether.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah most people are pleased with the deal. Barrie would have been a bigger loss had it not been for the emergence of the young defenceman on the Avs.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Barrie helps lead you guys on a run in the playoffs though.

To me, that's one of the most interesting story lines for us in these playoffs - how will Barrie play?

He started poorly but played much better after we changed coaches. He's been criticized a ton, much of it unfair IMO but overall, he's been a bit of a mixed bag. Me, I'm all about the playoffs so I don't care much what happened before and Barrie playing for a new contract is definitely ... intriguing.

 

[ehchefel]

why is this even a debate? Who is questioning this...
Kadri>Kerfoot

 

[Gary Nylund]

why is this even a debate? Who is questioning this...
Kadri>Kerfoot

The only person debating this is Zeke and my best guess is that because he believes Dubas can do no wrong, he gets carried away in his attempts to show that everything Dubas touches turns to gold. He's outdone even himself though this time.

 

[zeke]

Again, you guys can insult me, or could just attempt to explain:

Leafs' 3rd Line C

Even Strength

Kadri '19: 13:35, 12gl/34pt pace, -2
Kerfoot '20: 13:09, 11gl/32pt pace, -2

 

[Gary Nylund]

Again, you guys can insult me, or could just attempt to explain:

Leafs' 3rd Line C

Even Strength

Kadri '19: 13:35, 12gl/34pt pace, -2
Kerfoot '20: 13:09, 11gl/32pt pace, -2

It might help is you told us what is it that you don't understand.

You copy pasted all this from somewhere, can't you go back to the source if you've forgotten what these numbers are?

 

[zeke]

It might help is you told us what is it that you don't understand.

You copy pasted all this from somewhere, can't you go back to the source if you've forgotten what these numbers are?

You can't answer the question?

 

[Gary Nylund]

You can't answer the question?

You're the one that can't seem to explain what it is you don't understand? They're just numbers Zeke, it's not that complicated. And weren't you the one who posted them?

I will repeat - what is it that you don't understand? If you can't answer that then I can't help you.

 

[zeke]

You're the one that can't seem to explain what it is you don't understand? They're just numbers Zeke, it's not that complicated. And weren't you the one who posted them?

I will repeat - what is it that you don't understand? If you can't answer that then I can't help you.

I don't understand how Kerfoot has put up the exact same numbers in the exact same role as the player you say he isn't comparable to.

 

[Fogelhund]

why is this even a debate? Who is questioning this...
Kadri>Kerfoot

The challenge being, this is a thread split from a Barrie + Kerfoot for Kadri debate... whether it was a bad trade.

The argument being, that Kerfoot hasn't been much worse for us, than Kadri was as a #3C, and that Kadri has declined since his peak. At this point, Kadri is still better than Kerfoot, but that isn't how this debate started, and a number of people just won't let this go. Some don't feel that Kadri should have been traded, some feel he had to be after the second playoff suspension, and some people just like to argue.

 

[4thline]

It might help is you told us what is it that you don't understand.

Not to speak for someone else, but I'd say a fair starting point would be, "Given the similarity in roles, personal outputs, and overall on-ice results, should we give two shits about Kadri being the "better player" in a role we don't have for him?

IMO Kadri is the better player. If you had to pick a 2C to play PP1 it's him. But 3C PP2? Seems to be a push.

Then throw in 1m dollars and it gets even murkier.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't understand how Kerfoot has put up the exact same numbers in the exact same role as the player you say he isn't comparable to.

The only number that is exactly the same is +- which isn't useful for player evaluation.

The pts are close but you've told us many times that raw PTS aren't useful for evaluating players either so what's your problem?

And those are only even strength numbers correct? Special teams are a big part of the game and the players in question had different roles there so you should have a look at that as well before drawing any conclusions.

Kadri's ice time that season was 16:11 per game, Kerfoot's was only 14:46 so that tells you right there that Kadri's role was bigger.

If you really want to evaluate players properly using nothing more than stats, you need look at a helluva lot more stats then what you showed there as well. To say that what you posted is superficial would be a huge understatement. I hope that helps.

Edit - I also don't remember saying they weren't comparable (very subjective term). Compare them all you want but if you come to the conclusion that Kerfoot is the better player then I'm pretty sure you're doing it wrong.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not to speak for someone else, but I'd say a fair starting point would be, "Given the similarity in roles, personal outputs, and overall on-ice results, should we give two shits about Kadri being the "better player" in a role we don't have for him?

IMO Kadri is the better player. If you had to pick a 2C to play PP1 it's him. But 3C PP2? Seems to be a push.

Then throw in 1m dollars and it gets even murkier.

I'm with you there, Kadri wasn't exactly thriving for us in the #3C role so downgrading from him to Kerfoot isn't that big a deal. Also agree that Kadri is the better player. And of course the contract is a consideration, as is the one year of Barrie that we got in the trade.

I've never criticized the trade, I just think that saying Kerfoot > Kadri is a bit much. Maybe a lot much.

 

[zeke]

Not to speak for someone else, but I'd say a fair starting point would be, "Given the similarity in roles, personal outputs, and overall on-ice results, should we give two shits about Kadri being the "better player" in a role we don't have for him?

IMO Kadri is the better player. If you had to pick a 2C to play PP1 it's him. But 3C PP2? Seems to be a push.

Then throw in 1m dollars and it gets even murkier.

note, in his more offensive 2nd line role in colorado, Naz has increased all the way to a.....40pt pace at even strength. That's his best pace since 16-17.

and a reminder, like last year on the Leafs 1st pp unit, Kadri again seems to be the weakest link in his team's top PP unit:

Colorado PP paces

MacKinnon 37pts (4:07)
Rantanen 27pts (3:30)
Makar 27pts (3:43)
Landeskog 23pts (3:47)
Kadri 18pts (3:47) / Burakovsky 16pts (2:23)

19.1pp% (19th) ---> (Last year 22.0pp% (8th))


Leafs PP paces last year

Matthews 24pts (2:34)
Marner 21pts (2:35)
Rielly 21pts (2:36)
Tavares 19pts (2:35)
Kadri 15pts (2:35) / Nylander 10pts (1:51)

21.8pp% (8th) ---> (This year 23.1pp% (6th) )

 

[Fogelhund]

note, in his more offensive 2nd line role in colorado, Naz has increased all the way to a.....40pt pace at even strength. That's his best pace since 16-17.

and a reminder, like last year on the Leafs 1st pp unit, Kadri again seems to be the weakest link in his team's top PP unit:

Colorado PP paces

MacKinnon 37pts (4:07)
Rantanen 27pts (3:30)
Makar 27pts (3:43)
Landeskog 23pts (3:47)
Kadri 18pts (3:47)
Burakovsky 16pts (2:23)

19.1pp% (19th) ---> (Last year 22.0pp% (8th))


Leafs PP paces last year

Matthews 24pts (2:34)
Marner 21pts (2:35)
Rielly 21pts (2:36)
Tavares 19pts (2:35)
Kadri 15pts (2:35)
Marleau 10pts (1:45)

21.8pp% (8th) ---> (This year 23.1pp% (6th) )

Putting aside the salary cap, and putting aside the suspensions.... if you had a choice, who would you rather have on the team, Kadri, or Kerfoot?

 

[zeke]

Putting aside the salary cap, and putting aside the suspensions.... if you had a choice, who would you rather have on the team, Kadri, or Kerfoot?

don't really have a strong preference, tbh.

One thing for sure is that I wanted kadri off the top PP unit all last year, because willy obviously deserved that spot.

 

[goleafsgo1990]

Yes, the stats I started with included ice time in every situation, point production on a fair basis, and a defensive compenent as well, etc.

You have bitched and whined and moaned about those stats for 13 pages now, so I decided to get rid of the idiotic advanced stats arguments and present something simpler so you would stop avoiding the question..

not surprisingly, of course, you avoided the question.

Now you know what it's like arguing with your biases.