The great Kadri vs Kerfoot debate thread.

[LeafsNation75]

All three players were injured when Babcock was the coach of the team.

You're not just cutting and pasting posts, deleting sections, ignored others, but you're resorting to lying now?

What a sad situation.

Technically that's true. However I just pointed out Marner's injury continued into when Keefe replaced Babcock. So he was also injured with him as the coach.

 

[zeke]

Having JT, Mitch, and Hyman back probably helped.

Woulda been great with a top-pairing defenceman like Zaitsev too

Babs injuries (% of games missed)

Hyman 83%
Dermott 57%
Tavares 30%
Marner 22%
Kerfoot 13%
Muzzin 4%


Keefe:

Mikheyev 66%
Johnsson 58%
Rielly 47%
Muzzin 34%
Ceci 30%
Marner 13%
Andersen 11%
Nylander 5%
Kerfoot 5%
Kapanen 2%
Dermott 2%

 

[Dekes For Days]

All three players were injured when Babcock was the coach of the team.

Yes, and the team was still more injured under Keefe.

You're not only just cutting and pasting posts, deleting sections, ignoring others, but bow you're resorting to lying?

I have not done those things. I have chosen not to respond to a few of your repeated misleading statements that I had already corrected you about multiple times.

 

[Bomber0104]

Babs injuries (% of games missed)

Hyman 83%
Dermott 57%
Tavares 30%
Marner 22%
Kerfoot 13%
Muzzin 4%


Keefe:

Mikheyev 66%
Johnsson 58%
Rielly 47%
Muzzin 34%
Ceci 30%
Marner 13%
Andersen 11%
Nylander 5%
Kerfoot 5%
Kapanen 2%
Dermott 2%

Losing two $11 million players hurts with an already injured Rielly playing...

Man that's tough.

 

[zeke]

Losing two $11 million players hurts with an already injured Rielly playing...

Man that's tough.

Yep, tough injuries for both coaches.

 

[Bomber0104]

Yes, and the team was still more injured under Keefe.

Losing two $11 million players outweighs any injuries Keefe had.

I have not done those things. I have chosen not to respond to a few of your repeated misleading statements that I had already corrected you about multiple times.

You've "corrected" absolutely nothing. You back out of arguments you know you can't win. Unfortunately that'll happen a lot when you deal with me lol

We can re-visit any of the above ones if you'd like?

It's clear you're still confused.

 

[Bomber0104]

Yep, tough injuries for both coaches.

Hey, since you're the stat guy...

Show us all the Games Lost x Cap Hit / GP for each coach

That'd be a stat worth looking at!

 

[zeke]

Babs --> $8.8m prorated caphit injured

Hyman 83% -- $1.9
Dermott 57% - $0.5
Tavares 30% -- $3.3
Marner 22% --- $2.4
Kerfoot 13% --- $0.5
Muzzin 4% ----- $0.2


Keefe --- $10.6 Prorated caphit injured

Mikheyev 66% - $0.6
Johnsson 58% -- $2.0
Rielly 47% ------- $2.4
Muzzin 34% ---- $1.4
Ceci 30% --------- $1.4
Marner 13% ---- $1.4
Andersen 11% - $0.6
Nylander 5% ---- $0.4
Kerfoot 5% ------- $0.2
Kapanen 2% ----- $0.1
Dermott 2% ------- $0.1

 

[Dekes For Days]

Losing two $11 million players outweighs any injuries Keefe had.

No, it doesn't, and one of the players you're referring to was injured under both. And technically, Matthews played through injury for weeks under Keefe. They were more injured under Keefe; it's beyond obvious and really not debatable.

You've "corrected" absolutely nothing.

I have. You've chosen to ignore and deflect and repeat instead of discuss or learn.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Babs --> $8.8m prorated caphit injured

Hyman 83% -- $1.9
Dermott 57% - $0.5
Tavares 30% -- $3.3
Marner 22% --- $2.4
Kerfoot 13% --- $0.5
Muzzin 4% ----- $0.2


Keefe --- $10.6 Prorated caphit injured

Mikheyev 66% - $0.6
Johnsson 58% -- $2.0
Rielly 47% ------- $2.4
Muzzin 34% ---- $1.4
Ceci 30% --------- $1.4
Marner 13% ---- $1.4
Andersen 11% - $0.6
Nylander 5% ---- $0.4
Kerfoot 5% ------- $0.2
Kapanen 2% ----- $0.1
Dermott 2% ------- $0.1

Not that we wanted to see any Leafs players ever get injured and miss games because of that. When Andersen got injured that was the worst one because of their Goalie situation.

The only good thing to come of that was Dubas making the trade for Jack Campbell and Kyle Clifford.

 

[Bomber0104]

No, it doesn't, and one of the players you're referring to was injured under both. And technically, Matthews played through injury for weeks under Keefe. They were more injured under Keefe; it's really not debatable.

Actually it does. When an $11 million player (14% of your salary cap) misses substantial time, that hurts the team a lot. Add in the positional premium they play (top centre/winger/PP1's) and it hurts even more.

When both do at the same time it adds up heavily.

The fact you deny says everything about you.

I have. You've chosen to ignore and deflect and repeat instead of discuss or learn.

You've done nothing of the sort.

All of your responses have just been weak-assed attempts to defend BS blog stats which I've completely shredded and will continue to shred to bits.

There's not a single team out there that uses any of the publicly shared hockey stats, and in fact, we finally had a team come out to the media say that they AREN'T what you should be using (Treviling/21 Thoughts Podcast)

An NHL team literally advocated AGAINST using them. So way to go Chris Snow. Thanks for that.

You've given Dekes For Days a big job to do to spin his way out of.

But you'll try your best I'm sure

 

[LeafsNation75]

Actually it does. When an $11 million player (14% of your salary cap) misses substantial time, that hurts the team a lot. Add in the positional premium they play (top centre/winger/PP1's) and it hurts even more.

When both do at the same time it adds up heavily.

Despite being injured this past season and missing games, neither Tavares or Marner missed games at the exact same time.

Tavares got hurt on October 16 vs Washington and returned November 5 vs Los Angeles.

Marner got hurt November 9 vs Philadelphia and returned December 4 vs Colorado.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Actually it does. When an $11 million player (14% of your salary cap) misses substantial time, that hurts the team a lot. Add in the positional premium they play (top centre/winger/PP1's) and it hurts even more.

Yes, it does hurt the team. Just not as much as all of the injuries under Keefe hurt the team, especially when they were to top players in a position where the team is not as deep.

we finally had a team come out to the media say that they AREN'T what you should be using (Treviling/21 Thoughts Podcast)
An NHL team literally advocated AGAINST using them.

This is false, and not what was said in the interview. Stop misrepresenting what people say.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yes, it does hurt the team. Just not as much as all of the injuries under Keefe hurt the team, especially when they were to top players in a position where the team is not as deep.

Despite Tavares getting injured they still had Matthews.

When Marner was injured Tavares had returned, plus once again there was Matthews along with Nylander to provide the goal scoring.

When Andersen got hurt they couldn't count on Michael Hutchinson because he blew that 3-1 lead in the 3rd period at home against Florida and in their next game against the Rangers he allowed two bad goals in another loss. It was after that game when Dubas made the trade for Jack Campbell and Kyle Clifford.

 

[Bomber0104]

Yes, it does hurt the team. Just not as much as all of the injuries under Keefe hurt the team, especially when they were to top players in a position where the team is not as deep.

So all it takes for the Leafs to completely fall apart is a couple injuries to the defence, and that's it? Season over?

This is false, and not what was said in the interview. Stop misrepresenting what people say.

It was completely said in the interview.

300-500 data points (blogger stats) vs 4000 data points (Chris Snow's Player Contribution database) is a tremendous advantage. And Treviling explicitly said that there's not nearly as much information to be gained from the "public" stats as his. He said he didn't mean to "poo-poo" on them (but he did). And he left it off with a reminder that his organization spends and employs a hefty amount of employees to collate all of their data...

Why would they do this if the NHL.com's provided an adequate amount of data? For free...

Why would an organization spend hundreds of thousands of dollars when the NHL.com can do it all the same?

Ansswer these questions lol

 

[Dekes For Days]

So all it takes for the Leafs to completely fall apart is a couple injuries to the defence, and that's it? Season over?

Fall apart? Season over? They did really well under Keefe, despite the significant injuries to offense and defense, and horrible goaltending. They're in the playoffs.

300-500 data points (blogger stats) vs 4000 data points (Chris Snow's Player Contribution database) is a tremendous advantage. And Treviling explicitly said that there's not nearly as much information to be gained from the "public" stats as his.

Whether or not they are better than the stats teams create is irrelevant; we don't have access to them. The comparison being made here is the publicly available stats (hundreds of data points) vs. traditional stats (just a few data points) vs. "eye test" (no data points).

 

[LeafsNation75]

Fall apart? Season over? They did really well under Keefe, despite the significant injuries to offense and defense, and horrible goaltending. They're in the playoffs.

Technically they need to defeat Columbus during the play in round to officially qualify for the playoffs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Technically they need to defeat Columbus during the play in round to officially qualify for the playoffs.

They had a playoff spot when the regular season ended, and are now moving on to elimination series against specific teams. The NHL can try and pretend it's not to preserve historical records, but that's the playoffs.

 

[LeafsNation75]

They had a playoff spot when the regular season ended, and are now moving on to elimination series against specific teams. The NHL can try and pretend it's not to preserve historical records, but that's the playoffs.

I know when the regular season was suspended they were 3rd in the Atlantic Division and 3 points ahead of the Panthers. However they are not actually qualified for the playoffs. That will happen if they defeat Columbus. If they were already qualified for the playoffs the NHL would have tweeted something like this when they made it in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

 

[Ciao]

I don't know how I can explain this to you, so I'm going to try one last time and if you don't understand that's on you.

Both John Tavares and Tyler Bozak play Centre. On July 1, 2019 Bozak signed with St. Louis, so that meant when Toronto signed Tavares he replaced Bozak.

So when all that happened not one person had the thought or suggestion that Toronto was going to trade Nazem Kadri just because he also plays at Centre.

You have a typo on the year. I know what you meant to say, but Bozak signed with St Louis on July 1, 2018.

 

[Ciao]

I'm looking for the Kadri vs Kerfoot posts, and had to go back a few pages to find them.

I'm seeing a lot of stuff that has not much to do with either of them, IMO.

It's this now another pro-Dubas/anti-Dubas thread? Has it been hijacked?

 

[ACC1224]

Technically they need to defeat Columbus during the play in round to officially qualify for the playoffs.

Seems like a random off topic thought but this is correct. I don’t think anyone considers they’ve made the playoffs until they defeat Columbus

 

[ACC1224]

I'm looking for the Kadri vs Kerfoot posts, and had to go back a few pages to find them.

I'm seeing a lot of stuff that has not much to do with either of them, IMO.

It's this now another pro-Dubas/anti-Dubas thread? Has it been hijacked?

It’s a free for all these days. Rarely is a thread on topic anymore. They should just start one big thread for every thought and be done with it.

 

[4thline]

So rather than looking at the stats themselves, their significance/validity/confidence/etc...

You focus your attention on how many bloggers got hired to an internship?

Does this give the NHL.com data-scraped blogger statistics credibility to you?

It gives the concepts and models validity, because NHL teams decided to employ them and the people that created them. That they've poured resources into improving data collection and filling the gaps doesnt change the base concept.

And yeah. I'm going to tear down your repeated attempts to build up an image of a 19 year old stats minor blogging away and getting thrown a bone to sit in a cubicle in the basement.

Kings- Analyst- Masters in Computer Science
Devils- VP Analytics -Law
Capitals- Director of Hockey Analytics -Engineer
Penguins- Director of Hockey Research - PhD Statistics
Wild- "Lead Hockey Researcher" - PhD Statistics
Wild- Hockey Operations Analyst - Industrial Engineering (since hired to Seattle, Director of Hockey Administration
Leafs- Director, Hockey Research & Development, Chemical Engineering
Hurricanes-VP Hockey Management & Strategy- PhD Chemistry

 

[Dekes For Days]

If they were already qualified for the playoffs the NHL would have tweeted something like this when they made it in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

The NHL is trying to play both sides here, to protect their various interests. It's regular season, but it's not regular season. It's playoffs, but it's not playoffs. We all know what elimination series against individual teams means. Anyway, the original comment made was "season over", which is false regardless of how we look at it. Leafs will be playing for the cup when hockey resumes.

It's this now another pro-Dubas/anti-Dubas thread?

I mean, this thread was always about Dubas in reality. We're discussing negligible differences in the 3rd line center role...