Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 3: Playoffs Edition

[Soundwave]

Too young?.. We need to go with with more veterans who know how to win these close playoffs games.
28 is prime age for players.

RNH knows what exactly about winning playoff games? He was a complete non factor in the one actual run the Oilers did have getting outplayed by the likes of Mark Letestu.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

We got freaking Barrie last year dude, why’s it so hard to believe that McDavid + Draisaitl could be a draw for a few good players?

Barrie came here because it was a perfect storm. The teams PP point man on a historical PP would be out for the season, the season was abbreviated and we had 2 of the last 3 Art Ross winners on our team. How Barrie is rewarded by us or another team likely determines how many of these types of deals we may see in the future. Guys like Maroon didn't capitalize on career years with Connor and Leon, it'll be interesting to see what happens with Barrie.

 

[LTIR]

Agreed.. but when you sign them at 28 they turn 29 real fast and then they're in their 30's on Russel/Abdelkader/Kassian type contracts (all given out by Holland).

I have no problem with older players but they need to be damn good and effective.

And guess RNH's age
Tis 28

 

[Czechboy]

And guess RNH's age
Tis 28

I know.. it's why I said I'd like to hear other options for that money.

Only names I've seen is Saad and Danault which is good.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't really buy "no one will sign in Edmonton!!!" as a scare tactic.

Even before Barrie, Justin Schultz chose Edmonton over all the California teams, Vancouver, and other big suitors. Lucic, while he fell off a cliff, was a big ticket forward UFA in summer 2016 and he wanted to come here. Sekera signed in Edmonton.

The thing with replacing RNH is he's not a game breaking superstar, so it's more about just replacing his 55-ish points and special teams role, which is a lot easier to do.

Even though I'm not crazy about him, even for a year a guy like Tatar for $3.5 million probably nets you 40-45 points in our top 6, and then you can also sign an Erik Haula that can do a lot of the PK work and play wing or center, and maybe add another low cost player like Galy that gives you another 25-35 points.

If you're going to have a team that is only good enough to make the playoffs and then bow out quickly, why invest long term in Nugent Hopkins, I'd rather just have shorter term contracts in that case.

Long term you would have far greater cap flexibility, if a star player become available at a trade deadline going forward for example you could go all in with your 1st being put on the table and be able to send back expiring contracts and teams would be amenable to that.

 

[LTIR]

I know.. it's why I said I'd like to hear other options for that money.

Only names I've seen is Saad and Danault which is good.

These are just the pending UFAs. I will add Foligno, Tatar, Schwartz, Granlund to the UFA possible list.

Keeping our cap space and making our 2021 1st available is going to open up so many opportunities and would land us the true impact players we are looking for.

So its not just a Nuge out UFA(s) in situation.

 

[ujju2]

RNH is part of a core forward group that is looking rather weak in comparison to the other playoff teams. It is obvious (in the minds of many posters here) that the Oil have a long way to go before thinking about a championship.

Paying him what he wants further limits the ability to upgrade the core forwards so imho Oiler management is less inclined to sign him now that some of the results from the second round are coming in.

I also think that Holland and Katz are getting a closer look as to how the Oilers coaching compares to the top notch teams. It is a bit of an eye opener but that's the beauty of the playoffs. You see what your relative strength is.

I'm not convinced this is true. I think the non-core forwards (scoring depth) are much more of an issue than the core itself.

 

[ujju2]

I don't really buy "no one will sign in Edmonton!!!" as a scare tactic.

Even before Barrie, Justin Schultz chose Edmonton over all the California teams, Vancouver, and other big suitors. Lucic, while he fell off a cliff, was a big ticket forward UFA in summer 2016 and he wanted to come here. Sekera signed in Edmonton.

The thing with replacing RNH is he's not a game breaking superstar, so it's more about just replacing his 55-ish points and special teams role, which is a lot easier to do.

Even though I'm not crazy about him, even for a year a guy like Tatar for $3.5 million probably nets you 40-45 points in our top 6, and then you can also sign an Erik Haula that can do a lot of the PK work and play wing or center, and maybe add another low cost player like Galy that gives you another 25-35 points.

If you're going to have a team that is only good enough to make the playoffs and then bow out quickly, why invest long term in Nugent Hopkins, I'd rather just have shorter term contracts in that case.

Long term you would have far greater cap flexibility, if a star player become available at a trade deadline going forward for example you could go all in with your 1st being put on the table and be able to send back expiring contracts and teams would be amenable to that.

In what world is Tatar signing for 3.5? He's probably in the 5 range... Rather just keep Nuge at roughly 6.

 

[Soundwave]

In what world is Tatar signing for 3.5? He's probably in the 5 range... Rather just keep Nuge at roughly 6.

Who's giving him 5? *crickets*. Dude is a healthy scratch right now on a team that already has Drouin and Evans out. In a flat cap, players like him suffer.

 

[Smartguy]

LIke I say.. I'm in the keep him camp.

I won't die if he leaves.. I'm just curious what we replace him with OR where the money goes elsewhere.

Saad and Danault is interesting... they are both 28 which I don't like.

I think the entire fanbase is in the keep him camp, if the $ amount per season is 6M or under. It’s literally a million dollar question, is RNH worth another million per year just because you don’t think you can replace him. If Edmonton does keep him and he has another sub 20 ES points season, that’s a big oof, one lots of fans come back to point out. If they don’t keep him and he goes on to regain form elsewhere, your going to see the fans come from the other side.

You also realize that RNH is 28 too right? So not sure what you meant there. Both of those players bring elements to the team that they don’t already have. They have the skill and power play ability from RNH is spades, they don’t have size and scoring winger, Saad, and they don’t have the defensive shutdown C of Danault.

 

[Fourier]

Who's giving him 5? *crickets*. Dude is a healthy scratch right now on a team that already has Drouin and Evans out. In a flat cap, players like him suffer.

And yet that is the guy you are suggesting would be a good target, a guy who is a healthy scracth behind a potential buyout candidate and 25 year old rookie with 16 NHl points.

 

[LTIR]

And yet that is the guy you are suggesting would be a good target, a guy who is a healthy scracth behind a potential buyout candidate and 25 year old rookie with 16 NHl points.

He was a holland guy in DET and Stauffer keeps talking about him. He also looked decent vs Oilers this season.
3.5M would be an overpayment but he might just get that. Upgrade over Turris for sure.

 

[Fourier]

He was a holland guy in DET and Stauffer keeps talking about him. He also looked decent vs Oilers this season.
3.5M would be an overpayment but he might just get that. Upgrade over Turris for sure.

Yes...over Turris, but not Nuge. And if you can get him on a short term deal for $3.5M it is worth a shot. But with him if Nuge walks you are locked into having Leon and McDavid on separate lines and your center depth takes a big hit. Tatar would help if he is added to what they currenty have, not in lieu of what they current;y have.

 

[Nostradumbass]

I'll take it a bit further and say really hot weather flat out sucks, especially if you have to work in it. That said year after year we see players flock to the likes of Florida, Nevada and California.

The closest thing the players or their families will do to working outside is having to grab another drink when sitting by the pool or on the beach

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The closest thing the players or their families will do to working outside is having to grab another drink when sitting by the pool or on the beach

Very true. The same could be said of the cold in the winter. They will only experience the cold when leaving their heated homes to go out.

 

[nabob]

Barrie came here for one reason: to land a larger contract. The Oilers have been woefully incapable of bringing in good forwards for almost a decade.

So then your solution is to overpay Nuge to comeback and not try to upgrade our forward depth because Nuge’s cap hit takes up a lot of our available space. At least other posters are hoping to improve the team...

 

[XXIV97]

I do want Nuge to come back as an Oiler next season. However, I would not pay him a penny above $6 M and term greater than five years.

Now, if you are not going to re-sign Nuge, you need to replace his spot on the roster (5v5, pp & pk). If I were Holland, I would want to sign short-term deals in order to increase cap flexibility.

Players of Interest:
- Derek Ryan (4c + PK) 1 yr $2.5 M
- Marcus Johansson (5v5) 1 yr $2.5 M
- Mike Hoffman (5v5 + PP) 1 yr $4.0 M

Hoffman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Johansson-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Holloway-McLeod-Kassian
Benson-Ryan-Khaira

 

[Soundwave]

And yet that is the guy you are suggesting would be a good target, a guy who is a healthy scracth behind a potential buyout candidate and 25 year old rookie with 16 NHl points.

The Oilers aren't going anywhere with RNH on a big money deal or Tatar, so if that's the two options, I'd probably rather have Tatar on a cheaper 1 or 2 year deal.

If RNH is supposed to be the 3rd best forward on this team they're just going to get beat up in the 1st round over and over again, I personally am in no rush to commit to 6-7 years of that and a cap number over 6 (there is no way he will accept a 5 something contract, he would have signed already if that was the case).

 

[belair]

The Oilers aren't going anywhere with RNH on a big money deal or Tatar, so if that's the two options, I'd probably rather have Tatar on a cheaper 1 or 2 year deal.

If RNH is supposed to be the 3rd best forward on this team they're just going to get beat up in the 1st round over and over again, I personally am in no rush to commit to 6-7 years of that and a cap number over 6 (there is no way he will accept a 5 something contract, he would have signed already if that was the case).

The problem with where this team is isn't who the third best player is. It's who the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th best players are.

If you're waiting for Ken Holland to go find you one or two better players than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins via trade or free agency, you're likely waiting a very long time and probably running into cap issues managing the misses, because players of that calibre are rarely made available.

We're all in agreement that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should not be overpaid.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Very true. The same could be said of the cold in the winter. They will only experience the cold when leaving their heated homes to go out.

I’ve spent entire winters in both conditions and let’s just say my first winter back was much more difficult after spending the previous winter in tropical conditions.

 

[Soundwave]

The problem with where this team is isn't who the third best player is. It's who the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th best players are.

If you're waiting for Ken Holland to go find you one or two better players than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins via trade or free agency, you're likely waiting a very long time and probably running into cap issues managing the misses, because players of that calibre are rarely made available.

We're all in agreement that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should not be overpaid.

They're both big problems.

Your 6th/7th/8th best player isn't always going to bail you out when your 3rd best player turns into a ghost in the playoffs.

You're winning jack shit if that's the case barring a Cinderella run that won't be replicated.

RNH is going to get 7 mill x 7 years from Seattle, for Seattle what do they care if they overpay $1-$1.5 million. The Oilers would be stupid to match that or even come close.

If he was willing to accept like $5.5 m it would be signed already or we would have heard from the Oilers sources that a deal is in place (ala Larsson) already.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I’ve spent entire winters in both conditions and let’s just say my first winter back was much more difficult after spending the previous winter in tropical conditions.

To each their own. I can't say that I love dressing up for winter or working outside on a really hot or cold day.

 

[LTIR]

Yes...over Turris, but not Nuge. And if you can get him on a short term deal for $3.5M it is worth a shot. But with him if Nuge walks you are locked into having Leon and McDavid on separate lines and your center depth takes a big hit. Tatar would help if he is added to what they currenty have, not in lieu of what they current;y have.

Tatar wouldnt be Nuges replacement ala Kahun wasnt AA's replacement. We added a lesser player but then used the freed cap to add Barrie. Nuge to Tatar would free up cap to add someone who fits team needs better.
Ill take Tatar+Granlund/Hoffman/Schwartz over Dusty Hopkins

 

[Fourier]

Tatar wouldnt be Nuges replacement ala Kahun wasnt AA's replacement. We added a lesser player but then used the freed cap to add Barrie. Nuge to Tatar would free up cap to add someone who fits team needs better.
Ill take Tatar+Granlund/Hoffman/Schwartz over Dusty Hopkins

Right now Nuge looks like he would be in the $5-6 range if he resigns. People in Nashville expect Granlund to resign long term in the $4.5-5M range after his 13 goal 27 point season. Nashville is a no tax state. To get him to give that up you can add a little premium and now you are in the $5-5.5M range.

People want Hoffman to play with McDavid. But he is a guy whose game revolves around him having the puck. He'll be 32 years old and is looking for term and dollars. Seattle (another no tax state) can easily give him both so you need to be able to beat whatever they offer which could easily be $5M+ for 4-5 years. Maybe, and this is very unlikley, he does not get the deal he is looking for and signs another 1 year show me deal. It's going to be at least $4M if it is Edmonton and if he any success you will be looking at Nuge's money or close to it for a 33 year old or he will leave.

Schwartz is one year older than Nuge. He can't play center so the opportunity to play McDavid and Draisaitl together is gone. He's a small winger who has been decimated by injuries. The Blues have plenty of cap space to resign him if they choose to do so. If he is willing to sign a cheap deal like say Perron's why would they not keep him. The expectation in St. Louis is that he will be looking for a deal similar to Schenn's which is in the $6-6.5M range for say 6 years. But people here seem to think these guys will sign in Edmonton for pennies on the dollar.

There is no saving here.

By the way Hoffman and Schwartz just combined for 1 point in their play off round. Tatar has been a healthy scratch and also has 1 point.

 

[MessierII]

Right now Nuge looks like he would be in the $5-6 range if he resigns. People in Nashville expect Granlund to resign long term in the $4.5-5M range after his 13 goal 27 point season. Nashville is a no tax state. To get him to give that up you can add a little premium and now you are in the $5-5.5M range.

People want Hoffman to play with McDavid. But he is a guy whose game revolves around him having the puck. He'll be 32 years old and is looking for term and dollars. Seattle (another no tax state) can easily give him both so you need to be able to beat whatever they offer which could easily be $5M+ for 4-5 years. Maybe, and this is very unlikley, he does not get the deal he is looking for and signs another 1 year show me deal. It's going to be at least $4M if it is Edmonton and if he any success you will be looking at Nuge's money or close to it for a 33 year old or he will leave.

Schwartz is one year older than Nuge. He can't play center so the opportunity to play McDavid and Draisaitl together is gone. He's a small winger who has been decimated by injuries. The Blues have plenty of cap space to resign him if they choose to do so. If he is willing to sign a cheap deal like say Perron's why would they not keep him. The expectation in St. Louis is that he will be looking for a deal similar to Schenn's which is in the $6-6.5M range for say 6 years. But people here seem to think these guys will sign in Edmonton for pennies on the dollar.

There is no saving here.

By the way Hoffman and Schwartz just combined for 1 point in their play off round. Tatar has been a healthy scratch and also has 1 point.

Why is Hoffman getting a way better deal after a worse year in the same cap environment?

I don’t see Hoffman as a Nuge replacement though. We need guys like Hoffman either way. Danault is who we would need if Nuge walks.