Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 3: Playoffs Edition

[PumpkinBomb]

To me, i feel like his closest cap comparables are:

Mats Zuccarello (but he's a pure winger and doesn't really kill penalties)
or
Brock Nelson

But when these players signed the indication was a rising cap at a steady 3-5%/year so their $6M cap hits would be like $5.5 M now

There's guys making 5-6 M who are way worse though and i think their teams regret it.
(Stastny at 6.5, Evander Kane, Duschene, Henrique, Foglino)

Even Eberle. Give who he plays what, what he produces, and doesn't PK, Nuge at 6 looks good. (But i think the Oilers would regret it)

Problem is, you look at all the guys signed as FA at $3M they're not even 1/2 as good as him either. (So you can't replace Nuge with 2 guys at $3M and be better off, or 4 and 2, 5 and 1 etc)

I'm not sure money is even the issue as much as term. I look at some of the overpaid guys, the ones that aren't hurting their teams to bad didn't have more than 5 years of term on them. (3 seemed to be a sweet spot, and in some cases that player got traded and no salary retained, and both teams did ok, like Stastny)

 

[Soundwave]

Replace Tatar with a guy who isn't useless in the playoffs and I wouldn't mind it

So would I but there's limits to the players available that would take a 1 year or short term deal.

 

[LTIR]

What do you think the realistic chances are of executing this plan since right now it seems very likley that both players stay where they are?

When has a team willing to spend to the cap has been left with no players to sign?
At worst we will have 10M in cap space going into the training camp without Nuge.

Kahun-McD-Pulju
Benson/McLeod-Drai-Yama

+10M

If not Granlund/Schwartz then some other combo of newer faces.

Ideally Holland looks bigger than most here and goes after someone like Kakko.

 

[LTIR]

Yeah... on the ice, I'm good with Danault and he might even be a better fit on the third line,... but he's not going to be a bargain by any stretch of the imagination and he better be appreciably better than Nuge defensively, because, as you've pointed out, he's not very strong at ES production either if it isn't driven by high quality wingers... and he won't get much of those on our third line, that's for certain.

What about 2nd line C? Heck if he is good enough he can even play #1C here moving McD to wing.
We should certainly add a C if RNH isnt returning.

 

[CycloneSweep]

What about 2nd line C? Heck if he is good enough he can even play #1C here moving McD to wing.
We should certainly add a C if RNH isnt returning.

Drai is our 2 c

 

[LTIR]

Drai is our 2 c

Drai and McD can both slide to wing. We could even be open to adding a #1C if that ever becomes and option.
We shouldnt go crazy like the Leafs and get a Tavares but Philip frigging Danault could certainly be targetted even if we have 2 better Cs.

 

[Fourier]

When has a team willing to spend to the cap has been left with no players to sign?
At worst we will have 10M in cap space going into the training camp without Nuge.

Kahun-McD-Pulju
Benson/McLeod-Drai-Yama

+10M

If not Granlund/Schwartz then some other combo of newer faces.

Ideally Holland looks bigger than most here and goes after someone like Kakko.

It is easy to spend money to sign players. It is much harder to sign players that will make a your team better. The UFA pool is very thin this year becuuse what most teams did last year was to sign their best long term and cut out the deadwood. Hence the pool is mostly deadwood.

Going after Kakko requires expending a significant amount of assets. You can perhaps make one such trade. I am not against such a move. But even if you are succesful you still need at least two more significant additions if you have lost Nuge and Barrie. The goal should be to make the team better next year not just shuffle the deck.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

If he had say a 5.75 extension all agreed upon IMO the Oilers sources would just leak that to the press. Like Adam Larsson.

I don't think they do. His agent knows they can sucker a team to give his client 7 on the open market.

Leaks are usually by agents who have way more incentive to stir up public sentiments. Holland's pretty locked down on his comments and has just said the team's desire is to resign Nugent Hopkins. What we've heard reported most recently via Seravalli is the negotiation is in the low $5 millions for team offer and Nugent Hopkin's ask at or around $6 million. I fully believe there is a positive, respectful but hard negotiation happening. Muddying the water is the reported team contract offer that subsequently taken back.

This team does not have quality depth. I'm skeptical this team moves substantively ahead with deck chair shuffling in a poor free agent crop. My preference is to keep Nugent Hopkins as part of the core group if the money/term works (under $6 million) and focus on the shitty quality depth which is the real underlaying issue from years of horribad management. But if Nugent Hopkins moves on, I hope the team prioritizes a top pair dman in Hamilton if he hits the market. Build the defense to legitimate Cup level and then pick away at forwards via select UFA and trade with surplus d.

There is a hell of a lot of work to be done for this team to move beyond an entry level playoff team.

 

[Soundwave]

Leaks are usually by agents who have way more incentive to stir up public sentiments. Holland's pretty locked down on his comments and has just said the team's desire is to resign Nugent Hopkins. What we've heard reported most recently via Seravalli is the negotiation is in the low $5 millions for team offer and Nugent Hopkin's ask at or around $6 million. I fully believe there is a positive, respectful but hard negotiation happening. Muddying the water is the reported team contract offer that subsequently taken back.

This team does not have quality depth. I'm skeptical this team moves substantively ahead with deck chair shuffling in a poor free agent crop. My preference is to keep Nugent Hopkins as part of the core group if the money/term works (under $6 million) and focus on the shitty quality depth which is the real underlaying issue from years of horribad management. But if Nugent Hopkins moves on, I hope the team prioritizes a top pair dman in Hamilton if he hits the market. Build the defense to legitimate Cup level and then pick away at forwards via select UFA and trade with surplus d.

There is a hell of a lot of work to be done for this team to move beyond an entry level playoff team.

He's not gonna sign for less than 6, I think people need to accept that.

It's going to be more than 6 as Stauffer has said.

Seattle will offer 7, he's not going to take 5.75 here.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

He's not gonna sign for less than 6, I think people need to accept that.

It's going to be more than 6 as Stauffer has said.

Seattle will offer 7, he's not going to take 5.75 here.

We'll all have to wait and see how this plays out. At least I'm not at the negotiation table. My point remains leaks predominantly come from the agent side of the business and serve a purpose to stir up public sentiment. Personally I don't know why Nugent Hopkins would sign before free agency opens all doors to consider. The market will dictate what he's valued at and only the player can decide if playing less for his current team is worth taking less. All

I also don't assume start up Seattle will just pitch a wheelbarrow full of money at Nugent Hopkins or any free agents in their inaugural season. But they're integrated a pretty sophisticated analytical department as part of their hockey operations team and approach so I venture to guess it will be a well considered offer if they decide to run at Nugent Hopkins. He's seen as a top free agent in a weak class so it's really hard to say who might come to the table to add a 20 minute top six forward whose played and produced in all situations on a historic bad franchise. Free agency always has surprises.

EDIT: Regarding the 'source' Stauffer is an Oiler employee who once had a professional agent on his show to talk about a free agent player the Oilers were in on. What we saw was the player Connelley sign a great player friendly deal in better tax regime Florida.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Drai and McD can both slide to wing. We could even be open to adding a #1C if that ever becomes and option.
We shouldnt go crazy like the Leafs and get a Tavares but Philip frigging Danault could certainly be targetted even if we have 2 better Cs.

We should trade for Eichel, Crosby and Malkin too.

McDavid - Crosby - Draisaitl
RNH - Malkin - Eichel

 

[gordonhught]

We should trade for Eichel, Crosby and Malkin too.

McDavid - Crosby - Draisaitl
RNH - Malkin - Eichel

Forget eichel he is damaged goods

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Danault turned down $5 from Montreal this year. Saad already makes $6M. You aren't getting both for a steep discount.

Danault didn't turn down the money.

Danault turned down being a political tool as one of the only francophone players on the team.

As someone who lives in Montreal, I can easily see that french-speaking players HAVE to face the media every day, and answer on behalf of all his team on french broadcasts, french radio, and french print media.

Also the questions are often not even hockey-related, they're politically related. It's literally hell for guys like him. Everything he says or does gets twisted into an agenda for Quebec Nationalists.

There's a very good reason Drouin buckled under all this pressure. If you think Edmonton is a fish bowl, Montreal is at least 1000x worse for french speakers.

As someone who pays close attention to the Habs, Danault want to leave because it's impossible for him to live his life here.


For the first time in a century, no Quebecer will suit up for the Habs | Montreal Gazette
No Quebecers Were In The Habs Lineup For The First Time Ever On Monday & People Are Upset
Belzile inserted into Habs lineup, team avoids first roster with no Quebecois players on the ice
Canadiens and the Jonathan Drouin Situation

With the local media going into a frenzy over this nonsense, imagine all the talk-radio, the Quebec Sports broadcasts, media, bloggers, all talking nonstop about the travesty of this situation, politicians chiming in, and all kinds of pundits, Oprah-style talk show hosts, and radio hosts stirring up separatist emotions over a f***ing roster decision.



Danault and Drouin are caught up in all of this and clearly don't want to be.
I doubt either are Habs next year.

 

[gordonhught]

Danault didn't turn down the money.

Danault turned down being a political schill as one of the only francophone players on the team. As someone who lives in Montreal, you can easily see being a francophone player here, he HAS to face the media every day, and answer on behalf of all his team on french broadcasts, french radio, and french print media.

Also the questions are often not even hockey-related, they're politically related. It's literally hell for guys like him

There's a very good reason Drouin buckled under all this pressure. If you think Edmonton is a fish bowl, Montreal is at least 1000x worse for french speakers.

As someone who pays close attention to the Habs, Danault want to leave because it's impossible for him to live his life here.


For the first time in a century, no Quebecer will suit up for the Habs | Montreal Gazette
No Quebecers Were In The Habs Lineup For The First Time Ever On Monday & People Are Upset
Belzile inserted into Habs lineup, team avoids first roster with no Quebecois players on the ice
Canadiens and the Jonathan Drouin Situation

With the local media going into a frenzy over this nonsense, imagine all the talk-radio, the Quebec Sports broadcasts, media, bloggers, all talking nonstop about the travesty of this situation, politicians chiming in, and all kinds of pundits, Oprah-style talk show hosts, and radio hosts stirring up separatist emotions over a f***ing roster decision.



Danault and Drouin are caught up in all of this and clearly don't want to be.
I doubt either are Habs next year.

Can the oilers get both danault and drouin?

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Can the oilers get both danault and drouin?

Probably, but Drouin is softer than butter.

 

[LTIR]

We should trade for Eichel, Crosby and Malkin too.

McDavid - Crosby - Draisaitl
RNH - Malkin - Eichel

Sure, if they were UFAs like Danault or wanted out only to play for Oilers and we could fit them under the cap.
Passing up on a guy only because top6 C position is filled would be dumb esp with Drai andcD's ability to slide to wing at times.

 

[OiledUp]

Sure, if they were UFAs like Danault or wanted out only to play for Oilers and we could fit them under the cap.
Passing up on a guy only because top6 C position is filled would be dumb esp with Drai andcD's ability to slide to wing at times.

Yeah just go after the best/most cost effective forwards possible and worry about who's C and who's W later.

I think the onus needs to be forwards who do damage 5v5, the PP is McDrai-centric, no point in adding PP specialists. JP can put his big boot as the net front and Nuge/whoever replaces him in the top 6/eventually Lavoie's big ass shot will end up the fourth forward and it won't make it less of a PP as long as McDrai are doing their thing. You could even go two D and let Bouchard rip it from the half wall without losing much jam.

So a guy like Mike Hoffman might be too much of a PP specialist to make sense for example.

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

Yep, he's going to want like 6.5 minimum I think.

In that case I think the Oilers should move on. 1 goal in 17 real playoff games is too little production for a guy wanting that kind of money. Maybe he does OK somewhere else but that's a lot of money for someone who doesn't bring it in the post season and will be into his 30s soon.

Tatar (3.5 x 1 year)
Galchenyuk (1.5m x 1 year)
Haula (2m x 1 year)

or

RNH (6.7 m x 7 years)

As an example, I think Tatar + Galy + Haula mostly offset RNH's offence and Haula can PK.

Make a buy low trade for Dylan Strome or Jake DeBrusk.

I think that would be the most logical way to go; would Debrusk, Palmieri, Haula, and Larsson be too much to ask for? (edit: Would some of them do 1-year deals to bump up their value for a better contract? )

 

[bucks_oil]

What about 2nd line C? Heck if he is good enough he can even play #1C here moving McD to wing.
We should certainly add a C if RNH isnt returning.

My hope is that we can run 3 lines with solid C's for 50 of the 60 mins per game and have a true energy checking line for 10 mins a night...

but that obviously is contingent on getting sufficient support on the wing. So yeah, I do agree with you, he gives flexibility... but I don't think Danault gives us as much flexibility as RNH, but he'd be a good fit in a shutdown C-role, which arguably is a significant need for us (I believe RNH could play a similar role if we keep him and provide a bit more offense... though not as "difficult to play against").

 

[bucks_oil]

Leaks are usually by agents who have way more incentive to stir up public sentiments. Holland's pretty locked down on his comments and has just said the team's desire is to resign Nugent Hopkins. What we've heard reported most recently via Seravalli is the negotiation is in the low $5 millions for team offer and Nugent Hopkin's ask at or around $6 million. I fully believe there is a positive, respectful but hard negotiation happening. Muddying the water is the reported team contract offer that subsequently taken back.

This team does not have quality depth. I'm skeptical this team moves substantively ahead with deck chair shuffling in a poor free agent crop. My preference is to keep Nugent Hopkins as part of the core group if the money/term works (under $6 million) and focus on the shitty quality depth which is the real underlaying issue from years of horribad management. But if Nugent Hopkins moves on, I hope the team prioritizes a top pair dman in Hamilton if he hits the market. Build the defense to legitimate Cup level and then pick away at forwards via select UFA and trade with surplus d.

There is a hell of a lot of work to be done for this team to move beyond an entry level playoff team.

Thanks for the first paragraph. I was a bit out of date, so thanks for catching me up.

Completely agree with the 2nd paragraph (though I'd be willing to consider trading a couple assets for an extended Jones for the benefit of his $5.4M this year and younger age). Given that we have two ELITE centers, we really should not have much difficult chipping away at wingers with reasonable salaries. They don't make as much and become cap casualties more often than Cs and Ds.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Danault didn't turn down the money.

Danault turned down being a political tool as one of the only francophone players on the team.

As someone who lives in Montreal, I can easily see that french-speaking players HAVE to face the media every day, and answer on behalf of all his team on french broadcasts, french radio, and french print media.

Also the questions are often not even hockey-related, they're politically related. It's literally hell for guys like him. Everything he says or does gets twisted into an agenda for Quebec Nationalists.

There's a very good reason Drouin buckled under all this pressure. If you think Edmonton is a fish bowl, Montreal is at least 1000x worse for french speakers.

As someone who pays close attention to the Habs, Danault want to leave because it's impossible for him to live his life here.


For the first time in a century, no Quebecer will suit up for the Habs | Montreal Gazette
No Quebecers Were In The Habs Lineup For The First Time Ever On Monday & People Are Upset
Belzile inserted into Habs lineup, team avoids first roster with no Quebecois players on the ice
Canadiens and the Jonathan Drouin Situation

With the local media going into a frenzy over this nonsense, imagine all the talk-radio, the Quebec Sports broadcasts, media, bloggers, all talking nonstop about the travesty of this situation, politicians chiming in, and all kinds of pundits, Oprah-style talk show hosts, and radio hosts stirring up separatist emotions over a f***ing roster decision.



Danault and Drouin are caught up in all of this and clearly don't want to be.
I doubt either are Habs next year.

Excellent post and rundown of the situation and I doubt people even give it much thought but it certainly is something that has affected players there.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Thanks for the first paragraph. I was a bit out of date, so thanks for catching me up.

Completely agree with the 2nd paragraph (though I'd be willing to consider trading a couple assets for an extended Jones for the benefit of his $5.4M this year and younger age). Given that we have two ELITE centers, we really should not have much difficult chipping away at wingers with reasonable salaries. They don't make as much and become cap casualties more often than Cs and Ds.

I think Jones would be an amazing add but think the acquisition cost likely significantly cuts into a finally emerging prospect pool. Though the ability to create an elite top pair defense with two distinct elite d-men with Nurse and a Hamilton or Jones as 22-25 minute bedrock players would anchor this critical position for 5+ years. I'm not overly confident a next year replacement group of Bear, Bouchard, Larsson is experienced enough to help the team move forward in the short-term (1-2 years). A UFA Hamilton add though not likely would both solidify the d but also enable surplus d to be moved out for forwards.

Wingers are the easiest 'get'. With this scenario, the Oilers could prospectively add a higher end top six winger via free agency, a second via trade, and shore up the 3C. With the covid supply glut of cheap forwards and support players, value shopping can extend to rebuilding the bottom six while integrating McLeod at 4C and maybe a fast tracked Holloway in-season after some Bako seasoning. I think McDavid and Draisaitl's offensive production will shrink back a bit driving their own lines but ultimately this is about creating team depth, continuing to hammer away at goal suppression, and winning.

Qualify forward depth is the underlaying issue on this team. When Draisaitl couldn't drag Kahun and Yamamoto to a much more of a significant second line scoring result than Nugent Hopkins, the problem of lack of quality top forward depth is pretty obvious. Still prefer the centre/wing versatility of Draisaitl and Nugent Hopkins with real quality forwards to bolster them but my 1A plan would be to aggressively seek out a 1RD.

 

[CupofOil]

I figured that it was time for a well deserved Nuge bump.

How good has this guy been? League leader in assists with 13 and I'd say about 10 of those were well earned, the passing has been sublime this season on a rookie Nuge level, usual solid 2 way game, he's way more involved in puck battles and has been an absolute Special Teams ace PP and PK.
Give this man his props, he deserves a ton of credit for the way he's come out of the gate and this is coming from somebody who has been a Nuge skeptic at times but did like the contract. Speak of which, that contract looks like a filthy steal, at least in the short term.

#keepnugeforever

 

[Czechboy]

I figured that it was time for a well deserved Nuge bump.

How good has this guy been? League leader in assists with 13 and I'd say about 10 of those were well earned, the passing has been sublime this season on a rookie Nuge level, usual solid 2 way game, he's way more involved in puck battles and has been an absolute Special Teams ace PP and PK.
Give this man his props, he deserves a ton of credit for the way he's come out of the gate and this is coming from somebody who has been a Nuge skeptic at times but did like the contract. Speak of which, that contract looks like a filthy steal, at least in the short term.

#keepnugeforever

Couldn't agree more. A great offseason signing. I'm hoping he gets 82 assists and 0 goals for the statistical anomaly!

 

[Snipes45]

I sh** on RNH all of last season. I was sick of his play and thought we needed either an upgrade or more depth and balance to take some weight off of him.

He looks like rookie Nuge with his passing this year. I expected him to be better, but I did not expect this playmaking from him again. Big crow eaten here.