Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 3: Playoffs Edition

[GOilers88]

Yes...over Turris, but not Nuge. And if you can get him on a short term deal for $3.5M it is worth a shot. But with him if Nuge walks you are locked into having Leon and McDavid on separate lines and your center depth takes a big hit. Tatar would help if he is added to what they currenty have, not in lieu of what they current;y have.

There shouldn't be any game plans that have McDrai on the same line anymore. Team will never win a cup with them playing together.

RNH moving on almost forces that to happen and I don't think it's a bad thing. I'm also in the keep RNH camp.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Every Vegas game I watch the more I move from RNH. Its hard to watch 28yr old relative boys getting paid 6M to play here. Vegas is in our division. All roads go to them.

 

[LTIR]

Right now Nuge looks like he would be in the $5-6 range if he resigns. People in Nashville expect Granlund to resign long term in the $4.5-5M range after his 13 goal 27 point season. Nashville is a no tax state. To get him to give that up you can add a little premium and now you are in the $5-5.5M range.

People want Hoffman to play with McDavid. But he is a guy whose game revolves around him having the puck. He'll be 32 years old and is looking for term and dollars. Seattle (another no tax state) can easily give him both so you need to be able to beat whatever they offer which could easily be $5M+ for 4-5 years. Maybe, and this is very unlikley, he does not get the deal he is looking for and signs another 1 year show me deal. It's going to be at least $4M if it is Edmonton and if he any success you will be looking at Nuge's money or close to it for a 33 year old or he will leave.

Schwartz is one year older than Nuge. He can't play center so the opportunity to play McDavid and Draisaitl together is gone. He's a small winger who has been decimated by injuries. The Blues have plenty of cap space to resign him if they choose to do so. If he is willing to sign a cheap deal like say Perron's why would they not keep him. The expectation in St. Louis is that he will be looking for a deal similar to Schenn's which is in the $6-6.5M range for say 6 years. But people here seem to think these guys will sign in Edmonton for pennies on the dollar.

There is no saving here.

By the way Hoffman and Schwartz just combined for 1 point in their play off round. Tatar has been a healthy scratch and also has 1 point.

So sign Schwartz+Granlund if u really want the option of putting McDrai together. Even if these guys didnt put up big numbers they are upgrade over what Nuge brought this season.

 

[Little Fury]

I mean that’s the question that gets asked a million times. It’s not what you can do with the money on one player though, it’s what you could do with 2-3 players for that price IMO.

If you pay RNH 7M, and he puts up a whopping season like this past of 15 Even strength points, playing with 2 of the best players in the world, that’s not good.

IMO a combination of Danault and Saad from FA this offseason, for say 8-9M, is a better and more productive duo then bringing RNH back for another year

Danault turned down $5 from Montreal this year. Saad already makes $6M. You aren't getting both for a steep discount.

 

[Fourier]

Why is Hoffman getting a way better deal after a worse year in the same cap environment?

I don’t see Hoffman as a Nuge replacement though. We need guys like Hoffman either way. Danault is who we would need if Nuge walks.

Hoffman's claim to fame is as a goal scorer. His point totals were down but he was on pace for 27 goals after two years in teh 30+ range/pace. Last year part of the issue was that things happened so fast that teams had no ability to manage their cap. This year, despite the flat cap teams have more room, and Seattle makes this even more so. Hoffman is probably one of the 5 or so most desirable forwards. Thise guys tend to get paid.

If Nuge leaves and the team signed Danault then I would not be hugely upset. But Danault will probably be just as expensive.

 

[Fourier]

So sign Schwartz+Granlund if u really want the option of putting McDrai together. Even if these guys didnt put up big numbers they are upgrade over what Nuge brought this season.

What do you think the realistic chances are of executing this plan since right now it seems very likley that both players stay where they are?

 

[Forgot About Drai]

More and more I look at how our team is laid out the goal should be to RESIGN Nuge + ADD two top 6 fwds (or 1 middle 6er and 1 top 6).

I just dont see us replacing nuge in the open market and this coming from a big Nuge skeptic.

 

[MoontoScott]

I think the majority of posters say that the Oil should re-sign him but again the question is --what is the bottom line for price tag? By August we will know the answer.

 

[McGoMcD]

I love Nuge, but he only stays on a cap friendly deal, simple as that. If he wants to get the most he can on the open market, so long. He is a 40-50 point center with out Drai and McD. He is worth 6 mill again at most, and really he should be signed closer to 5 mill.

 

[Soundwave]

The price to keep him will be 6.5-7 mill. He will be able to get that on the open market by saying he can play center even if he can't put up numbers without a Hart trophy tier talent.

If he was willing to do 5.5-6 there would be a deal in place already or it would be signed outright.

 

[Spawn]

The price to keep him will be 6.5-7 mill. He will be able to get that on the open market by saying he can play center even if he can't put up numbers without a Hart trophy tier talent.

If he was willing to do 5.5-6 there would be a deal in place already or it would be signed outright.

Your first paragraph might be right. As for the second point, no team has re-signed any of their UFAs as of yet. I don’t think that means they are all going to sign somewhere else.

 

[Soundwave]

Your first paragraph might be right. As for the second point, no team has re-signed any of their UFAs as of yet. I don’t think that means they are all going to sign somewhere else.

If he had say a 5.75 extension all agreed upon IMO the Oilers sources would just leak that to the press. Like Adam Larsson.

I don't think they do. His agent knows they can sucker a team to give his client 7 on the open market.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

If he had say a 5.75 extension all agreed upon IMO the Oilers sources would just leak that to the press. Like Adam Larsson.

I don't think they do. His agent knows they can sucker a team to give his client 7 on the open market.

You realize negotiations are still ongoing right? As the deadline approaches RNH may realize he has to settle for less.

Just because he hasn’t agreed to <$6 million AAV yet doesn’t mean he never will.

 

[Spawn]

If he had say a 5.75 extension all agreed upon IMO the Oilers sources would just leak that to the press. Like Adam Larsson.

I don't think they do. His agent knows they can sucker a team to give his client 7 on the open market.

I don't think they have an agreement in place either. But just because they don't now doesn't mean they wont over the next ~4-6 weeks. Just like with every other player currently set to be a UFA after the season ends.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Your first paragraph might be right. As for the second point, no team has re-signed any of their UFAs as of yet. I don’t think that means they are all going to sign somewhere else.

Well I dont know how many other negotiations are this far apart on money and term. From reports Nuge camp was asking 7M and Oilers came back with something in 5M-6M range. With term on a forward that will be relatively old through much of the contract its considerable risk.

Optics wise Nuge numbers would look better to anybody less acquainted with how he currently bags his pts. Increasingly he's just a peripheral player primarily getting into shooting areas when he's wide open on the PP. The player is averse to puck in traffic or in tight checking or hitting games.

 

[BudBundy]

Stauffer just said if it happens, it won’t be less than $6M per. Great. What a “Sophie’s choice.” Overpay for a guy that has been overpaid 4 out of last 6 years, and can’t piss a drop at evens OR let him walk and be forced to build up depth via free agency, which almost ALWAYS ends badly.

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

As someone who defended Nuge for all of these years, I think it's painfully obvious that the Oilers need to spend that money for the bottom six and defense.

 

[Soundwave]

Stauffer just said if it happens, it won’t be less than $6M per. Great. What a “Sophie’s choice.” Overpay for a guy that has been overpaid 4 out of last 6 years, and can’t piss a drop at evens OR let him walk and be forced to build up depth via free agency, which almost ALWAYS ends badly.

Yep, he's going to want like 6.5 minimum I think.

In that case I think the Oilers should move on. 1 goal in 17 real playoff games is too little production for a guy wanting that kind of money. Maybe he does OK somewhere else but that's a lot of money for someone who doesn't bring it in the post season and will be into his 30s soon.

Tatar (3.5 x 1 year)
Galchenyuk (1.5m x 1 year)
Haula (2m x 1 year)

or

RNH (6.7 m x 7 years)

As an example, I think Tatar + Galy + Haula mostly offset RNH's offence and Haula can PK.

Make a buy low trade for Dylan Strome or Jake DeBrusk.

 

[McJadeddog]

Yep, he's going to want like 6.5 minimum I think.

In that case I think the Oilers should move on. 1 goal in 17 real playoff games is too little production for a guy wanting that kind of money. Maybe he does OK somewhere else but that's a lot of money for someone who doesn't bring it in the post season and will be into his 30s soon.

Tatar (3.5 x 1 year)
Galchenyuk (1.5m x 1 year)
Haula (2m x 1 year)

or

RNH (6.7 m x 7 years)

As an example, I think Tatar + Galy + Haula mostly offset RNH's offence and Haula can PK.

Make a buy low trade for Dylan Strome or Jake DeBrusk.

$6.5 is too dear IMO, $6 would really be pushing it in my mind as well. However, I don't know what other UFAs are/aren't willing to sign in Edmonton. Obviously that information, which Holland may have one way or the other, would impact my decision.

Example: If none of the "often talked about" UFAs have any interest in signing in Edmonton, then I might be more willing to sign a $6.5 deal. But if you knew that Coleman (just randomly choosing 1 of the UFAs that gets talked about lots) was willing to sign for $X, then that needs to be taken into account as well.

People are going to look at the contract, or lack of one, as its own isolated event, when in reality it is going to be related to lots of other outside events as well. We might never get the truth behind the rationale as well. If Holland doesn't sign RNH, and does sign Coleman (against, just randomly choosing a name), then you will be able to make the comparison for what RNH signs for elsewhere and what we signed Coleman for. But if Holland does sign RNH, we'll never know what other factors played into that decision, because Holland will never say "well we TRIED to sign anybody but RNH, but they wouldn't come here, so we went with him". This isn't going to a situation like Smith last year, because RNH will likely get signed early, one way or the other.

 

[Fourier]

$6.5 is too dear IMO, $6 would really be pushing it in my mind as well. However, I don't know what other UFAs are/aren't willing to sign in Edmonton. Obviously that information, which Holland may have one way or the other, would impact my decision.

Example: If none of the "often talked about" UFAs have any interest in signing in Edmonton, then I might be more willing to sign a $6.5 deal. But if you knew that Coleman (just randomly choosing 1 of the UFAs that gets talked about lots) was willing to sign for $X, then that needs to be taken into account as well.

People are going to look at the contract, or lack of one, as its own isolated event, when in reality it is going to be related to lots of other outside events as well. We might never get the truth behind the rationale as well. If Holland doesn't sign RNH, and does sign Coleman (against, just randomly choosing a name), then you will be able to make the comparison for what RNH signs for elsewhere and what we signed Coleman for. But if Holland does sign RNH, we'll never know what other factors played into that decision, because Holland will never say "well we TRIED to sign anybody but RNH, but they wouldn't come here, so we went with him". This isn't going to a situation like Smith last year, because RNH will likely get signed early, one way or the other.

Excellent post!

I actually agree that this is a contract that needs to be managed carefully. If the number is too high, then so be it. Time to move on. But I am not at all confident that this will end up with a better team in the short run.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Every Vegas game I watch the more I move from RNH. Its hard to watch 28yr old relative boys getting paid 6M to play here. Vegas is in our division. All roads go to them.

You're correct but did you really see anyone raise their game against the Jets?

 

[Soundwave]

You're correct but did you really see anyone raise their game against the Jets?

No, but we can't spend $6.5 million of our "supporting cast budget" on a player who is going to not show up in a series like that.

If you're only going to score one goal and an assist in a series like that, I mean there's lots of players who can do that for half the price or less.

 

[bucks_oil]

Hoffman's claim to fame is as a goal scorer. His point totals were down but he was on pace for 27 goals after two years in teh 30+ range/pace. Last year part of the issue was that things happened so fast that teams had no ability to manage their cap. This year, despite the flat cap teams have more room, and Seattle makes this even more so. Hoffman is probably one of the 5 or so most desirable forwards. Thise guys tend to get paid.

If Nuge leaves and the team signed Danault then I would not be hugely upset. But Danault will probably be just as expensive.

Yeah... on the ice, I'm good with Danault and he might even be a better fit on the third line,... but he's not going to be a bargain by any stretch of the imagination and he better be appreciably better than Nuge defensively, because, as you've pointed out, he's not very strong at ES production either if it isn't driven by high quality wingers... and he won't get much of those on our third line, that's for certain.

 

[MoontoScott]

You're correct but did you really see anyone raise their game against the Jets?

I thought Cassie was a bit better.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Yep, he's going to want like 6.5 minimum I think.

In that case I think the Oilers should move on. 1 goal in 17 real playoff games is too little production for a guy wanting that kind of money. Maybe he does OK somewhere else but that's a lot of money for someone who doesn't bring it in the post season and will be into his 30s soon.

Tatar (3.5 x 1 year)
Galchenyuk (1.5m x 1 year)
Haula (2m x 1 year)

or

RNH (6.7 m x 7 years)

As an example, I think Tatar + Galy + Haula mostly offset RNH's offence and Haula can PK.

Make a buy low trade for Dylan Strome or Jake DeBrusk.

Replace Tatar with a guy who isn't useless in the playoffs and I wouldn't mind it