Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2: Has His Recent Concussion Complicated Things More?

[MessierII]

There is a formula in place for how the cap plays out. By that if there are fans next year the cap will start to rise in the following season.

The cap isn’t going to instantly rise when fans come back. Right now owners are losing money while players are maintaining the same revenue as before. The cap is guaranteed to stay flat for two more offseason before they re evaluate regardless of when fans come back. The CBA is a 50-50 split and right now the owners are eating all of the losses. The balance will take years to restore.

 

[Fourier]

Yes, some teams got rid of some dead weight, but I think you're missing that a lot of teams did some questionable things to get under the cap and are going to have even MORE trouble this year. Think about performance bonuses that will suck up cap space next year. Buyouts with higher costs in year 2 of the buyout than year 1. Young players who got bridge deals rather than long-term contracts with escalating salaries, thereby pushing cap hits from 2020/21 to 20201/22. Guys who took year year salaries who will expect big $ now that teams had a year to recover.

I think we'll continue to see a constrained cap situation well into 2022/23

I am fully aware of all of those things though escalating salaries does not impact the cap. Teams are in much better shape this year than last even if it will be another tight year. And since teh number of high calibre FA's is very small this year Seattle adding $81.5M in cap space creates a lot of space for a small number of players that need it.

 

[Fourier]

The cap isn’t going to instantly rise when fans come back. Right now owners are losing money while players are maintaining the same revenue as before. The cap is guaranteed to stay flat for two more offseason before they re evaluate regardless of when fans come back. The CBA is a 50-50 split and right now the owners are eating all of the losses. The balance will take years to restore.

The CBA dictates how the cap plays out. The owners making or losing money has nothing to do with it. It has to do with total revenue If there are fans back next year, even at say 60-70% the cap will rise by at least $1M in 2022-2023.

The key issue is escrow deficit. Before the season mouser took a shot at estimating how this would play out:

My swing at what the escrow balance might look like. Copied from another thread

I tried a spreadsheet mock up of how the Escrow Balance and salary cap could look going forward if no changes are made.

List of figures and assumptions used in this model.
- HRR for 2018-19 was ~$4.61B (based on reverse engineering the 2019-20 cap)
- Actual player salary/bonuses for 2018-19 were ~$2.414B (based on reverse engineering HRR and final escrow %)
- HRR has been growing at an annual 4% average in the 5 years leading up to the covid shutdown and will continue to do so in 2021-22 and following years.
- One time 5% year over year increase in HRR due to the new TV contract. $250m year to year increase estimate on TV money.
- $500M starting Escrow Balance following the 2019-20 season. *This may be high, need to research further, any input appreciated.
- Seattle revenue and new player costs are not included. Proportionally they should be neutral to a small upward adjustment, but not huge impact on this model.
- HRR for 2020-21 of $2.5B. HRR for 2021-22 returns to normal and is equal to 2019-20 projection of $4.8B. Increases by 4% year by year going forward.
- Player compensation increases year to year at same % as cap increase.
- Did not include 2020 MOU increases in non-salary player benefits that are included in compensation. It is a material number but not large enough to significantly change this model.

Season	cap	Revenue	Player share	Player actual	deferred	escrow%	final escrow	escrow $	Starting balance	ending balance	Player share
2020-21	81.5	2500	1130	2238.994		20%	-20%	(447.80)	500	1161.20	71.6%
2021-22	81.5	4799	2279.28	2487.771		16%	-16%	(398.04)	1161.20	971.64	43.5%
2022-23	82.5	5182	2471.222	2518.296	74.63	10%	-10%	(251.83)	971.64	841.52	45.2%
2023-24	83.5	5390	2574.871	2548.821	74.63	6%	-6%	(152.93)	841.52	737.17	45.8%
2024-25	84.5	5605	2682.666	2579.346	74.63	6%	-6%	(154.76)	737.17	553.73	44.6%
2025-26	85.5	5830	2794.773	2609.87		6%	-6%	(156.59)	553.73	212.23	42.1%
2026-27	87.0	6063	2911.364	2655.658		0%	0%	0.00	212.23	(43.48)	43.8%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So the tradeoff for overpaying the players this season (including deferred salary) is an essentially flat cap for six additional years out through 2026-27. The players would also receive much less then 50% of HRR in every one of those seasons, with a low of 42%.

I did a similar mock up with a 5% annual HRR growth and that still shows a flat cap through 2025-26, after which cap growth should return to normal.

The fact that teams have fans back to some degree and also that The NHL signed a lot of new revenue deasl means that the escrow deficit will probably be considerably less than mouser's estimate. Add in more money on teh new TV deal I think there is a good case that if fans are back next year you could see the deficit gone by the end of teh 2022-2023 season. So that $87M cap could happen as soon as 2024-2025.

 

[MessierII]

The CBA dictates how the cap plays out. The owners mking or losing money has nothing to do with it. It has to do with total revenue If there are fans back next year, even at say 60-70% the cap will rise by at least $1M in 2022-2023.

Incorrect. Revenue has everything to do with it. Normally the cap would have gone down massively this year and next. They are artificially propping it up right now.

 

[Fourier]

Incorrect. Revenue has everything to do with it. Normally the cap would have gone down massively this year and next. They are artificially propping it up right now.

Revenue is different than profit. See my previous post. If fans are back in teh stands revenues will rise beyond the point where cap increases are triggered by the CBA. If you don't believe me I would invite you to read it for yourself.

 

[fuswald]

It'll be longer now that you decided to act like I owe you something.

Sometimes the mods here remind me of nhl refs.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

Sometimes the mods here remind me of nhl refs.

I'd like this post but I obviously can't be trusted with that much responsibility so the mods have very rightly extended my ban on taking part in the practice of liking posts.

 

[MoontoScott]

In terms of quality of play--right now RNH looks a distant 4th amongst forwards---slipping far behind Puls and not really head and shoulders above Yams either. Add Mcleod and maybe Holloway next year......

 

[Drivesaitl]

In terms of quality of play--right now RNH looks a distant 4th amongst forwards---slipping far behind Puls and not really head and shoulders above Yams either. Add Mcleod and maybe Holloway next year......

Yep. Reasonable view. Yams despite his incredible snakebit troubles has 18EV pts this season to Nuges's 14.

Two more examples of why tonight. Tons of times a game Yama is sacrificing his body trying to make something happen. Will literally put everything on the line to try to empower Ozone possession.

Yet twice tonight Drai puts an easy dump into Nuges corner and he just won't go for it. Almost guaranteed Nuge won't beat a defender to a puck. I mean its trade mark with him to hold up on those this season. Disengaged look for a topsix player. Wheres the urgency darting for pucks?

Two aspects of Nuge that are troubling. He bales on pucks AND he won't be first in corners to pucks. To me thats not an all in player. My primary expectation of any topsix go to player, and around the league top players do it, is accepting the risks and taking hits to make plays. This is often absent in Nuges game.

Nuge is content on the Drai line watching Drai do most of the puck handling and take most of the hits and punishment. He's content watching Yama do the dirty board work. Nuge is playing off the puck in opponent zone as if he is a Center on this line. Its kind of uncanny. Is there a legitimate reason he's doing the least amount of work on the line? Where is the contribution he brought to the line last season?

By not being optimally engaged Nuge is sliding off this club unless he's willing to settle in the 5M something range. He's not dialing in. Even on a club that has a shot. Nuge is on a 55pt pace, even with enormous help from the PP, and getting the vast majority of his pts this season on the PP. 19/33 pts being PP.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Bye, Nuge. It was fun. I will set up the doghouse for your replacement.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Bye, Nuge. It was fun. I will set up the doghouse for your replacement.

1 assist in his last 6GP after looking a little enthused for a few games after coming back from two weeks missing games. We got some brief energy out of him, now the last games again just bringing very little. Played 18mins tonight. Did it look like he was playing with jump? Watch even Kahun tonight, had a better game, was around some pucks and made a couple very good setups. Probably had the puck on his stick more EV than Nuge did in the game.

Heres just a bit of trivia. Nuge is considered here to be an elite pk, and also dangerous and dynamic on counters. He has 3pk goals his whole career. In the same time frame 300NHL players have as many shorthanded goals. I mean its just a tidbit, but one of many where Nuge is NOT a dynamic player. I mean to put it into perspective Mark Letestu has 10 pk goals in same time frame and he's barely even played since 2018..

 

[Barrsy]

Bye, Nuge. It was fun. I will set up the doghouse for your replacement.

Oh, I'm confident everyone will find a replacement.
For instance, there are those oh so silly posters who will blame Tippett for anything that goes wrong. Even when its clear its such a silly and uninformed thing to say.
So yes, do not fear. There's always a replacement.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Oh, I'm confident everyone will find a replacement.
For instance, there are those oh so silly posters who will blame Tippett for anything that goes wrong. Even when its clear its such a silly and uninformed thing to say.
So yes, do not fear. There's always a replacement.

If the Oilers falter again in the playoffs who should be blamed? Apparently both the GM and coach are off limits.

1 assist in his last 6GP after looking a little enthused for a few games after coming back from two weeks missing games. We got some brief energy out of him, now the last games again just bringing very little. Played 18mins tonight. Did it look like he was playing with jump? Watch even Kahun tonight, had a better game, was around some pucks and made a couple very good setups. Probably had the puck on his stick more EV than Nuge did in the game.

Heres just a bit of trivia. Nuge is considered here to be an elite pk, and also dangerous and dynamic on counters. He has 3pk goals his whole career. In the same time frame 300NHL players have as many shorthanded goals. I mean its just a tidbit, but one of many where Nuge is NOT a dynamic player. I mean to put it into perspective Mark Letestu has 10 pk goals in same time frame and he's barely even played since 2018..

Have you checked the Oilers PK numbers the last little while? And despite the competition, the Oilers have all of 2 PK goals this year.

Clearly tonight was about getting McDavid to 100 points and nothing else mattered. Nuge gets blamed because of his salary (which wasn't his choice obviously).

This was a meaningless game to the Oilers. Putting any stock in it is worthless.

 

[oilexport]

Time to lose the nuge. We can't pay his price.

 

[Barrsy]

If the Oilers falter again in the playoffs who should be blamed? Apparently both the GM and coach are off limits.

.

Yes, it’s for sure coaches and GM’s fault if Oilers don’t win a round.
That’s some deeeep thinking.
Almost as deep as the knee jerk that some have when they lose a couple of games.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Yes, it’s for sure coaches and GM’s fault if Oilers don’t win a round.
That’s some deeeep thinking.
Almost as deep as the knee jerk that some have when they lose a couple of games.

You didn’t answer my question. Try again, I know you can do it.

 

[Barrsy]

You didn’t answer my question. Try again, I know you can do it.

How can a person actually know “who should be blamed” before the games are even played? Anyone who would think some should really has a challenge in the cerebral cortex area. Or is a Nostradamus . Or shockingly, like some fanboys, has an agenda.

 

[Drivesaitl]

If the Oilers falter again in the playoffs who should be blamed? Apparently both the GM and coach are off limits.



Have you checked the Oilers PK numbers the last little while? And despite the competition, the Oilers have all of 2 PK goals this year.

Clearly tonight was about getting McDavid to 100 points and nothing else mattered. Nuge gets blamed because of his salary (which wasn't his choice obviously).

This was a meaningless game to the Oilers. Putting any stock in it is worthless.

The only offensively gifted players we use on the pk are Nuge and Drai. Drai has 7 shorties up to his 7th season and Nuge had 3 in ten seasons. Plus with Drai he's not going to be looked off at all. Opponents always know when he's on the ice because he's so dangerous. They're not going to give him any easy break chances. That isn't the case with Nuge. Nuge should have more career shorties. Its just another aspect of how he doesn't bear down. Not many GWG's either.

Meaningless game? Didn't stop many here from waxing on about how good Nuge looked for a couple games against the same Canucks. I mean we're talking in context of a player, RNH, that inexplicably just has a lot of ordinary games in a season. For extended stretches. A player who is instantly better the moment he starts trying to shake people, starts using his edges, creating distances, ragging the puck, trying to be dynamic. You can instantly tell the periods and games where Nuge is on. Why is it so infrequently with him?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The only offensively gifted players we use on the pk are Nuge and Drai. Drai has 7 shorties up to his 7th season and Nuge had 3 in ten seasons. Plus with Drai he's not going to be looked off at all. Opponents always know when he's on the ice because he's so dangerous. They're not going to give him any easy break chances. That isn't the case with Nuge. Nuge should have more career shorties. Its just another aspect of how he doesn't bear down. Not many GWG's either.

Meaningless game? Didn't stop many here from waxing on about how good Nuge looked for a couple games against the same Canucks. I mean we're talking in context of a player, RNH, that inexplicably just has a lot of ordinary games in a season. For extended stretches. A player who is instantly better the moment he starts trying to shake people, starts using his edges, creating distances, ragging the puck, trying to be dynamic. You can instantly tell the periods and games where Nuge is on. Why is it so infrequently with him?

I really think you're just nitpicking at this point. First it was EV pts, now it's SH pts. Fair enough on EV points, but as long as the penalty is killed (~93% in the past 2 months or so) I don't think it really matters if he's putting up PK goals or not. Tippett is clearly telling them not to go fishing for SHGs, even last year when they had the 3rd best PK, they only scored 5 SHGs all year, second last in the league. Conversely, the team with the most SHGs, was the Senators with 21... and, well, that speaks for itself.

And yes, it was a meaningless game. There's nowhere to go in the standings. The only thing the Oilers were focused on was getting McDavid to 100. Now that that's done I don't expect much for the rest of the season.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I really think you're just nitpicking at this point. First it was EV pts, now it's SH pts. Fair enough on EV points, but as long as the penalty is killed (~93% in the past 2 months or so) I don't think it really matters if he's putting up PK goals or not. Tippett is clearly telling them not to go fishing for SHGs, even last year when they had the 3rd best PK, they only scored 5 SHGs all year, second last in the league. Conversely, the team with the most SHGs, was the Senators with 21... and, well, that speaks for itself.

And yes, it was a meaningless game. There's nowhere to go in the standings. The only thing the Oilers were focused on was getting McDavid to 100. Now that that's done I don't expect much for the rest of the season.

I'm "Nitpicking" in a season in which a player has 14pts in a contract year in which they are demanding an increase in pay, longterm? I'm providing extra bits of context using additional points.

Last time I checked shorties are huge goals, backbreakers, often, and change games around. Nuge is rarely involved in those. Nuge is not innately better at actual PK than some good defensive player you can just plug in there. Of course there is value in players bagging shorties, and being able to do that. One would expect a skilled player to bag one once in awhile. yet Nuge has the same career shorties as David Archibald, a 6th round afterthought pick. A walk on, Shore, has scored a beautiful shortie this season, in splendid Peca fashion. Why is any pick break aspect so rare in Nuges game? he has Peca like anticipation, he reads plays, just doesn't often jump break them like he can.

Nuge one point in last 6GP is when he picked the point and created an oddman breakout. He knows the value of doing so, he's a 10yr vet, but he creates breaks like that so rarely. It was a beautiful play by Nuge. What can happen when he is engaged and dynamic on plays. Which is not often.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I'm "Nitpicking" in a season in which a player has 14pts in a contract year in which they are demanding an increase in pay, longterm? I'm providing extra bits of context using additional points.

Last time I checked shorties are huge goals, backbreakers, often, and change games around. Nuge is rarely involved in those. Nuge is not innately better at actual PK than some good defensive player you can just plug in there. Of course there is value in players bagging shorties, and being able to do that. One would expect a skilled player to bag one once in awhile. yet Nuge has the same career shorties as David Archibald, a 6th round afterthought pick. A walk on, Shore, has scored a beautiful shortie this season, in splendid Peca fashion. Why is any pick break aspect so rare in Nuges game? he has Peca like anticipation, he reads plays, just doesn't often jump break them like he can.

Nuge one point in last 6GP is when he picked the point and created an oddman breakout. He knows the value of doing so, he's a 10yr vet, but he creates breaks like that so rarely. It was a beautiful play by Nuge. What can happen when he is engaged and dynamic on plays. Which is not often.

You're right, Nuge is rarely involved in SHGs. Same goes for the other skaters seeing as we only have two in the entire season. SHGs can be huge but a good PK can be just as momentum changing. Again, Tippett is clearly asking them to be conservative on the PK and I'm honestly okay with that. Unless you want to go back to the Eberle/Hall days where they constantly looked for SHGs and got burned as a result.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Nuge one point in last 6GP is when he picked the point and created an oddman breakout. He knows the value of doing so, he's a 10yr vet, but he creates breaks like that so rarely. It was a beautiful play by Nuge. What can happen when he is engaged and dynamic on plays. Which is not often.

IMO the 2nd line looked good when he was centering it but Yamamoto is as snake bitten as any top 6 forward that I can remember in recent memory on the Oilers. Last night IMO on the wing he didn't play with the same urgency that he did at C. IMO next season we should run Draisaitl-McDavid-Pulju and RNH centers the 2nd line with 2 new wingers because neither Yamamoto or Kahun are cutting it right now in their roles. I'd go all in for a 2nd line RW (Holloway is likely to be the LW on that line) and keep Yamamoto on the 3rd line.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

IMO the 2nd line looked good when he was centering it but Yamamoto is as snake bitten as any top 6 forward that I can remember in recent memory on the Oilers. Last night IMO on the wing he didn't play with the same urgency that he did at C. IMO next season we should run Draisaitl-McDavid-Pulju and RNH centers the 2nd line with 2 new wingers because neither Yamamoto or Kahun are cutting it right now in their roles. I'd go all in for a 2nd line RW (Holloway is likely to be the LW on that line) and keep Yamamoto on the 3rd line.

Absolutely putrid winger depth. JP is the only winger that can score and the rest just hope they don't get scored on.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You're right, Nuge is rarely involved in SHGs. Same goes for the other skaters seeing as we only have two in the entire season. SHGs can be huge but a good PK can be just as momentum changing. Again, Tippett is clearly asking them to be conservative on the PK and I'm honestly okay with that. Unless you want to go back to the Eberle/Hall days where they constantly looked for SHGs and got burned as a result.

This is absolutely not the case and Tippett believes in counters like a person in Crowsnest pass believes in wind..

Tippett LOVES counters. Fortunately we'll be seeing more of that I suspect with Holloway.

The object of hockey is to outscore the opponent and its a common fallacy that Tippett preaches defensive hockey in all cases. He's dispelled this several times himself. Indeed when he was hired his first thing was to dispell his defensive record saying that in Arizona that style was dictated. he said a team with McDrai on it would be used much differently. He's also a big believer in D jumping, even on pk. The players are green lit. Nurse has by miles the most goals he's ever scored. Barrie having a stupendous season. Tippett is not holding anybody back from scoring and producing. Not the case at all.

 

[Drivesaitl]

IMO the 2nd line looked good when he was centering it but Yamamoto is as snake bitten as any top 6 forward that I can remember in recent memory on the Oilers. Last night IMO on the wing he didn't play with the same urgency that he did at C. IMO next season we should run Draisaitl-McDavid-Pulju and RNH centers the 2nd line with 2 new wingers because neither Yamamoto or Kahun are cutting it right now in their roles. I'd go all in for a 2nd line RW (Holloway is likely to be the LW on that line) and keep Yamamoto on the 3rd line.

The game before the last, the line had little jump left. I do think Nuge is probably better at C, but it takes time I guess to get back to what works for him. I'm a bit worried how we are set for playoffs. We don't have a lot of players running hot going into them. Just the usuals. Would be nice to get the 2nd line going. Sounds crazy but I would insert Neal in some of the time with Drai. That was a nice working play on the PP and Neal is looking much better the last couple weeks. I think he could surprise a bit in the playoffs.