Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2: Has His Recent Concussion Complicated Things More?

[Drivesaitl]

Was just going through some Kahun EV stats and thought it might be interesting in this thread as well as a comparison of wingers. Now by no means is this saying Kahun equates to Nuge, but in terms of value, as a $995k contract Kahun wins the 5 on 5 comparison hands down.

Kahun has been in the league 3 seasons so I figured I'd compare the two in EV Numbers. Nuge has a slight edge in goals, 36 vs 29. But in 5 on 5 G/60mins both score at an identical .77
Assists more interesting as Kahun basically on par with Nuge despite far less minutes. Nuge has 45 5on 5 assists, Kahun 42. But Kahun way ahead in rate, with 1.11 5 on 5 A/60mins vs Nuge with .97 Kahun also has twice as many Primary assists as secondary assists which is interesting. With Nuge he has slightly more secondary assists than primary, kind of matching the eye test.

Total pts, Nuge has 81 5 on 5 pts in 3 seasons, Kahun close behind with 71. Kahun with the HIGHER rate of 5 on 5 pts as well. 1.88 vs 1.74

I mean this is just a basic look at EV production in the past 3 seasons. Just to further add how pedestrian Nuges 5 on 5 contribution has been in the time period. Without the brief Dry superheated segment Nuges 5on5 production would look dismal. Indeed Nuge had 28pts 50n5 in 29GP during the DRY line segment FAR exceeding his usual.

Kahun is basically considered an after thought on this board. Picked up for nothing, never drafted, imminently available at low cost. But with Nuge his EV production is no better. Nuge is no better at EVGA stats either.

5 on 5, is the vast majority of component play. Where most of the minutes occur. I don't think we can ignore its importance or what the team gets for its $ with the relative contributions.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Further, just because its too much for one post. Nuge, I repeat with 81 5on 5 pts in last 3 seasons played. Not stellar numbers. This across 197GP.

HOWEVER a full 28 of those 5 on 5 pts occured in a 29game DRY segment last season where Nuge collected those pts.

Meaning that in the rest of the sample, over 3 seasons Nuge bagged only 53 5 on 5 pts in 168gp.

Vast differences. So with DRY line last season Nuge gets superhot. With the rest of his segment its pretty ordinary 5 on 5 production.

Kind of underlying how Nuge is only complementary EV, and even within that not working equally well on any line config and for instance being abysmal with McD this season. Also of note that Nuge has shown far less with the DRY line this season, and albeit with limited minutes, pretty meager numbers, even with DRY line, this season.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Nuge with another good game and feeling it lately. seems like he's gearing up for playoffs and looking somewhat fresh. Lots of jump today. Hopefully he's all in for the Playoffs and being the impact player he can be.

Please bring it. If Nuge elevates we have 4 premium topsix forwards which is going to help immensely in playoffs.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Wonder if Sam Reinhart could be a replacement if RNH walks. Don't think he can be a LWer but would allow Draisaitl to stay on McDavid's line while Sam plays 2C.

 

[Snipes45]

@tyleryaremchuk: "There have been multiple offers from the #Oilers" - @frank_seravalli on The Lowdown, talking about the RNH contract situation
He adds that the offers have come at different points during & before the season

Looks like little Nuge is wanting big money. Seeya bud. Won't miss ya one bit

Holland has already made mistakes. If he pays this kid anything over 5.5, I have no hope to build a winner in the next 5 years.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

@tyleryaremchuk: "There have been multiple offers from the #Oilers" - @frank_seravalli on The Lowdown, talking about the RNH contract situation
He adds that the offers have come at different points during & before the season

Looks like little Nuge is wanting big money. Seeya bud. Won't miss ya one bit

Holland has already made mistakes. If he pays this kid anything over 5.5, I have no hope to build a winner in the next 5 years.

Time will tell. Like just about every player there has to be a line in the sand. If he wants much more than he's worth then he's gone.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

@tyleryaremchuk: "There have been multiple offers from the #Oilers" - @frank_seravalli on The Lowdown, talking about the RNH contract situation
He adds that the offers have come at different points during & before the season

Looks like little Nuge is wanting big money. Seeya bud. Won't miss ya one bit

Holland has already made mistakes. If he pays this kid anything over 5.5, I have no hope to build a winner in the next 5 years.

This is oversimplifying the situation a bit much. It depends on how the negotiations have gone and how willing each side has been to put their best offer/request on the table. Performance also plays a part. If RNH wants more money is he going to sign when he's had a down year? He probably wants a chance to increase his market value by performing well in the playoffs. He may also want to see what hos market value actually is. If there's a high enough offer he probably foregoes that opportunity, but if not (such as it appears is the case with the offers from Holland) then maybe he goes to market to see what he's worth and potentially get a higher offer (best offer) from Holland.

Now obviously this strategy could backfire for RNH if that's the route he goes. Maybe the offers aren't very good or maybe the teams he was hoping would offer him a contract don't or they give him a worse offer than Holland. Or maybe he was hoping he could weigh the different offers and then choose, but his top options which may include the Oilers choose to give contracts to other free agents and now they're no longer offering him a contract or their offer is now less. It's always a bit of a gamble. He's one of the best forward FAs that will potentially be going to market though so he's going to get good offers, and teams who need help at forward will be willing to wait a bit for him to sign.

I think RNH is in a strong place from a negotiation point of view given the forward market. That said with the flat cap there are limited dollars to go around for teams, especially for contenders. His lesser production this year definitely won't help either. His playoff performance could really augment or decrease his value. If he puts up 0.9 P/GP in the playoffs it's easier to chalk up his diminished production this year as an aberration. If he puts up 0.4 P/GP and isn't good defensively either then good teams with immediate playoff aspirations are less likely to offer him a good contract. I like Nuge and want to see him do well, but I wouldn't mind seeing him struggle production-wise in the playoffs as long as it doesn't hinder the Oilers this postseason. I think he's still the best top-6 FA option for the Oilers this summer as long as they can get him signed to a decently team-friendly contract.

 

[McDNicks17]

Nuge's IPP still blows me away. Dead last for forwards on the team at 45.45% at even strength. That means if there's a goal scored with him on the ice, he gets a point on it 45% of the time.

Guys like Khaira, Ennis, Chiasson and Neal are in the 70s. Hell, Kris Russell is at 53%.

 

[Fourier]

Nuge's IPP still blows me away. Dead last for forwards on the team at 45.45% at even strength. That means if there's a goal scored with him on the ice, he gets a point on it 45% of the time.

Guys like Khaira, Ennis, Chiasson and Neal are in the 70s. Hell, Kris Russell is at 53%.

This stat backs up my claim that Nuge does not have his stats inflated by McDavid 5 vs 5. His IPP% with McDavid is 35%. Away from McDavid it is 70%.

Over the last three years his 5 vs 5 IPP with McDavid is 51.16%. Away from McDavid it is 73.75%.

 

[Dorian2]

Nurse has cut out most of the downside elements of his game, bad decisions, passes, so I was not happy with him making that cross ice pass in a 2-0 game we had control of. I thought that was not great for Smith who was pitching a shutout to that point. But turned out well as it served to open up the game and Connor got his 100pts and Leon 500.

When I grew up with the Oilers they had a Finn on the point, Risto Siltanen. Guy could really hammer the puck. Scored 17 one year here and 3 times in NHL hit 15. he would crush pucks. One of many good Finns we've had. He went all the way back to the WHA years.

I remember. I was 13. Loved Risto.

 

[TheNumber4]

Just had this thought the other night, no matter where the negotiations go, we need to sign RNH anyways from an asset management standpoint. Let’s say he’s signed slightly overpaid and it’s not working out in Edmontjn, he’s still a teadeable asset, a former 1st overall centerman that can play various roles for a team. Even if we don’t love his contract, having him would give us one more trade asset and there’s always gonna be a team out there looking to add a good centerman.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Just had this thought the other night, no matter where the negotiations go, we need to sign RNH anyways from an asset management standpoint. Let’s say he’s signed slightly overpaid and it’s not working out in Edmontjn, he’s still a teadeable asset, a former 1st overall centerman that can play various roles for a team. Even if we don’t love his contract, having him would give us one more trade asset and there’s always gonna be a team out there looking to add a good centerman.

5-6M is tradeable. Arguably. Trouble is if his boxcars continue decline, with age, even that is tenuous and should it occur that the contract becomes unsavory enough to want to trade it, that assumes the performance and worth is also down.

7M, forget it, whoever signs that deal with term is never getting rid of it easy. You'd have to sweeten that pot or take cap back. Seems like we've had that problem before.

The time for what you are stating was LAST season. The boat has sailed. Anything now is overpay.

The last presser Nuge was even asked about the contract and I dunno. To me it didn't look good the chances of him staying here. While he said the right thing, that the playoffs are important now, team important now, the guy hasn't approached these pressers with any joy at all. His countenance off the ice, its like he's already gone. Lots of pundits have commented on that. even on the bench sometimes looks indifferent to whats going on. But he sure isn't happy about whats happened with the contract. I would say its the most pissed I've seen him look in some of these pressers when contract comes up.

This is not the affable Nuge of the past. he looks upset now in these interviews.

he can get 7m. And invariably somebody will pay that. I think he's gone.

 

[TheNumber4]

5-6M is tradeable. Arguably. Trouble is if his boxcars continue decline, with age, even that is tenuous and should it occur that the contract becomes unsavory enough to want to trade it, that assumes the performance and worth is also down.

7M, forget it, whoever signs that deal with term is never getting rid of it easy. You'd have to sweeten that pot or take cap back. Seems like we've had that problem before.

The time for what you are stating was LAST season. The boat has sailed. Anything now is overpay.

The last presser Nuge was even asked about the contract and I dunno. To me it didn't look good the chances of him staying here. While he said the right thing, that the playoffs are important now, team important now, the guy hasn't approached these pressers with any joy at all. His countenance off the ice, its like he's already gone. Lots of pundits have commented on that. even on the bench sometimes looks indifferent to whats going on. But he sure isn't happy about whats happened with the contract. I would say its the most pissed I've seen him look in some of these pressers when contract comes up.

This is not the affable Nuge of the past. he looks upset now in these interviews.

he can get 7m. And invariably somebody will pay that. I think he's gone.

I think as long as we identify early on that’s it’s not working and are willing to cut him loose we’ll still be able to get rid of him and get something in return. Cap will go up with the new TV deal so whatever is signed during flat cap will have some room to breathe in the future. Plus, there’s always going to be teams looking for that number 1 C and even if Nuge has a down year, teams could see him just needing a change of scenery.

I saw that presser, he did seem annoyed by the question but I wouldn’t read as much into it as you are. Contract negotiations always get a bit dicey with hockey, or anything else.

If we’re losing Barrie and Nuge, how exactly is this team taking steps forward? Replacements for these players aren’t going to be easy, especially with Edmonton’s lack of free agency attractiveness.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I think as long as we identify early on that’s it’s not working and are willing to cut him loose we’ll still be able to get rid of him and get something in return. Cap will go up with the new TV deal so whatever is signed during flat cap will have some room to breathe in the future. Plus, there’s always going to be teams looking for that number 1 C and even if Nuge has a down year, teams could see him just needing a change of scenery.

I saw that presser, he did seem annoyed by the question but I wouldn’t read as much into it as you are. Contract negotiations always get a bit dicey with hockey, or anything else.

If we’re losing Barrie and Nuge, how exactly is this team taking steps forward? Replacements for these players aren’t going to be easy, especially with Edmonton’s lack of free agency attractiveness.

My take all along is keep Barrie, who is indispensable support offensively, and instead try to replace Nuge. Nuge EV contribution pretty replaceable, pk pretty replaceable at lower cost. The only issue is what does he contribute to PP, and I would say thats also replaceable.

In anycase Barrie came here and wanted to be here. That kind of nullifies the bolded. We haven't lost him either so we can't assume we will.

I mean for a player it comes down to do I want to win a Stanley Cup or get more pay somewhere else.

 

[TheNumber4]

My take all along is keep Barrie, who is indispensable support offensively, and instead try to replace Nuge. Nuge EV contribution pretty replaceable, pk pretty replaceable at lower cost. The only issue is what does he contribute to PP, and I would say thats also replaceable.

In anycase Barrie came here and wanted to be here. That kind of nullifies the bolded. We haven't lost him either so we can't assume we will.

I mean for a player it comes down to do I want to win a Stanley Cup or get more pay somewhere else.

My theories on Barrie leaving (and my thinking it's a guarantee, atleast its likely how Barrie is thinking about it now) is based on his presser. Similar to your read on Nuge's presser funny enough. When asked if hes staying, saw a lie tell when it came to his answer. So take with a grain of salt I guess, but also take into account Stauffer seemingly hinting that Barries not part of the picture next year. I would like to keep Barrie too, talent and skill up and down the lineup is how this team needs to be built. We need to stop thinking like "we cant afford it" we gotta start thinking like "how can we afford it"?

But if it does come down to the numbers, letting go of Barrie and letting Bouch attempt to fill his role seems to make most sense which is the only reason I could stomach losing a good player like Barrie.

 

[Drivesaitl]

My theories on Barrie leaving (and my thinking it's a guarantee, atleast its likely how Barrie is thinking about it now) is based on his presser. Similar to your read on Nuge's presser funny enough. When asked if hes staying, saw a lie tell when it came to his answer. So take with a grain of salt I guess, but also take into account Stauffer seemingly hinting that Barries not part of the picture next year. I would like to keep Barrie too, talent and skill up and down the lineup is how this team needs to be built. We need to stop thinking like "we cant afford it" we gotta start thinking like "how can we afford it"?

But if it does come down to the numbers, letting go of Barrie and letting Bouch attempt to fill his role seems to make most sense which is the only reason I could stomach losing a good player like Barrie.

Yeah I don't know about that, watched the same. I've taken some training in NLP and Transactional analysis. Do you have background in this area?

ftr I just noted Nuge being visibly dour, seemingly unhappy, and visibly upset at times in latest presser, and especially its going to be difficult when asked of the contract. But the RNH pressers this season have certainly not been upbeat at all. They're markedly different than previous years. My basic take is he's exhibiting some of the conflicted feelings. Its been a difficult contract discussion. Two sides apart. Offers "unflattering" Nuge is giving us information, whether intended or not.

 

[westbeast]

Just had this thought the other night, no matter where the negotiations go, we need to sign RNH anyways from an asset management standpoint. Let’s say he’s signed slightly overpaid and it’s not working out in Edmontjn, he’s still a teadeable asset, a former 1st overall centerman that can play various roles for a team. Even if we don’t love his contract, having him would give us one more trade asset and there’s always gonna be a team out there looking to add a good centerman.

Just look at Johansen and Duchene in Nashville, those two contracts are untradeable now

 

[BudBundy]

The current version of Nuge is very likely what we will see going forward. He isn’t a physical freak who will age gracefully, and no matter how you slice it, his even strength scoring sucks. Like barely 3rd liner levels of suck. If he wants more than $6M per on a long term deal, we have to walk him. With McLoed showing he can hold down 3/4C and with Holloway coming soon, we can survive without Nuge. Bring in a big playoff style UFA LW if necessary. And we’ll have money left over for goaltending depth, and raises for Nurse and Puljujarvi in the near future. I really like Nuge and have defended him forever, but reality is knocking on the door. Hopefully Nuge is self-aware enough to see that and he signs a reasonable deal. He won’t find a better situation than the one he has right here.

 

[Aerchon]

Just look at Johansen and Duchene in Nashville, those two contracts are untradeable now

It's extremely hard not to imagine RNH being similar to these other bad contracts.

His play today. Slow and uninspired. Just not the kind of play that makes you think this guy is even worth what he is making.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Just remember when you toss away RNH how good our pro scouts have been the last decade or so.

 

[Oilhawks]

Just remember when you toss away RNH how good our pro scouts have been the last decade or so.

They should just pony up the 7x7 and call it an offseason

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

My theories on Barrie leaving (and my thinking it's a guarantee, atleast its likely how Barrie is thinking about it now) is based on his presser. Similar to your read on Nuge's presser funny enough. When asked if hes staying, saw a lie tell when it came to his answer. So take with a grain of salt I guess, but also take into account Stauffer seemingly hinting that Barries not part of the picture next year. I would like to keep Barrie too, talent and skill up and down the lineup is how this team needs to be built. We need to stop thinking like "we cant afford it" we gotta start thinking like "how can we afford it"?

But if it does come down to the numbers, letting go of Barrie and letting Bouch attempt to fill his role seems to make most sense which is the only reason I could stomach losing a good player like Barrie.

Bouch can fill Barries role in maybe 3 years, but there's certainly no way he can be a 1st pairing 20+ min dman in his rookie season.

 

[TheNumber4]

Yeah I don't know about that, watched the same. I've taken some training in NLP and Transactional analysis. Do you have background in this area?

ftr I just noted Nuge being visibly dour, seemingly unhappy, and visibly upset at times in latest presser, and especially its going to be difficult when asked of the contract. But the RNH pressers this season have certainly not been upbeat at all. They're markedly different than previous years. My basic take is he's exhibiting some of the conflicted feelings. Its been a difficult contract discussion. Two sides apart. Offers "unflattering" Nuge is giving us information, whether intended or not.

As someone who negotiated for a living and has been promoted 3 times finally to a position training others in what I’ve honed. Yes I’ve done some reading and training (not formal) in body language and NLP.

I don’t disagree that Nuge looked dour, I think it should be reasonably assumed that he is considering what we know. We know multiple offers have already went to the Nuge camp and it’s not been received well. That all being said, they are working on it and are still in progress, whereas with Barrie it’s all crickets on the “are they negotiating front”. Why? Cause it turns out he’s hitting UFA, combine that with grain of salt poker tell I saw and I think the writing is on the wall personally.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

They should just pony up the 7x7 and call it an offseason

To Hoffman?

 

[Snipes45]

The current version of Nuge is very likely what we will see going forward. He isn’t a physical freak who will age gracefully, and no matter how you slice it, his even strength scoring sucks. Like barely 3rd liner levels of suck. If he wants more than $6M per on a long term deal, we have to walk him. With McLoed showing he can hold down 3/4C and with Holloway coming soon, we can survive without Nuge. Bring in a big playoff style UFA LW if necessary. And we’ll have money left over for goaltending depth, and raises for Nurse and Puljujarvi in the near future. I really like Nuge and have defended him forever, but reality is knocking on the door. Hopefully Nuge is self-aware enough to see that and he signs a reasonable deal. He won’t find a better situation than the one he has right here.

Bang on as usual.

Look, if Nuge REALLY wants to be here, he will take 5 or a tad more. End of story. This is the same stuff people say about Hall. It is in their hands.

People need to stop loving players. Cheer for the crest.

Would I want him here at my #? YES. I think he is a character guy. I think he is well respected. I also think he provides almost nothing to help 97/29 in their prime.

I would love if we signed Nuge for a low cost and added a better guy or two. As much as I shi* on Nuge, I still realize he can help. He ain't much of a helper though.