Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2: Has His Recent Concussion Complicated Things More?

[HockeyGuy1964]

jebus, eat a snickers or something

Well, I didn't COMPARE RNH to Letestu.

& I'd really like my ability to like posts restored.
It's been long enough.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Well, I didn't COMPARE RNH to Letestu.

& I'd really like my ability to like posts restored.
It's been long enough.

I sympathize, agree with your views on Nuge. just go easy if you will.

Mods are underpaid here..

 

[Mr Positive]

I don't take anything from a small sample size of Nugent Hopkins, Kahun and Yamamoto other than it reinforces the long standing, massive need to add another high end winger to a threadbare top six that gets razor thin (and small) when Tippett stacks McDavid with Draisaitl and Puljujarvi. Not surprisingly Draisaitl's expected goals/60 drops from over 5 with generational elite McDavid to 2.45 with Kahun and Yamamoto. Quality top six depth is a chronic issue for this team.

This is moreso a stretch drive chemistry test by Tippett to trial moving people around to see what versatility might be gained going into the playoffs. What he knows is Nugent Hopkins can play wing with McDavid or Draisaitl and can slot into a 2C role with rotating wingers ... marginally successful.

The Oilers want to propel from a playoff team to a Cup Contender next year ... if not possibly even this year. It won't likely make this jump if they try to ice next year a zero NHL game Holloway or seven game McLeod into a 2C role. Now I 've long believed this team needs to run McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines to compete against elite teams deep in the playoffs, so letting Nugent Hopkins go requires adding two top wingers, faith that Yamamoto resets his scoring production and that Puljujarvi continues his fantastic growth and development. Do you land Toffoli hit it out of the park replacement production or Taylor Hall Buffalo or even Hoffman St. Louis production with replacement forwards? No certainty so there is risk.

No offence but I find your terminology 'being held hostage' a bit over the top. This is a tough negotiation by limited reporting in considering Covid cap reset and determining how Nugent Hopkin's versatility and complementing game fits salary wise into a team on the tipping point of finally breaking through. Holland talks all the time about grinding in his work so I feel generally he has a reasonable line in the sand for this player and won't necessarily be reactive to what can happen in free agency. He had his eyes wide open deciding to keep all his UFA's to give this team its best chance to succeed in making the playoffs. Nugent Hopkins has a big decision to make in choosing his future.

It is true that "held hostage" is over the top but it feels that way when we have fans saying we just need to keep RNH at all costs because we aren't allowed to downgrade in talent, and then combine that with the fact that there are teams out there that are desperate and will give him the same kind of contract that Nashville gave Turris, and there is a decent chance it ends about as well.

So I should say it is not RNH "holding us hostage" but more like his advocates.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Tippett and the coaching staff are given too little credit for a transformative PP. The two Tippett seasons, both years the PP has had dramatic improvement as well as D usage and production on it.

I'll also cite that people before this season were saying such things as the PP would not be good at all in the absence of Klefbom. I always maintained Nurse was better on PP. I continue to maintain that with the riches of D we have going forward, that it will be routine for the Oilers to run PP with 2 rather than one D, and that this will continue as our offensive D greatly supplement our McDrai all world tandem. Really with the D we can put on a first unit PP, combined with McDrai, a lot of players can slide in to fill Nuge bumper role on PP.

I disagree with you on this. Nuge role on PP is often being overstated. He's no more required on the PP than Klefbom was. Despite numbers I feel the PP actually looks better this season with Barrie and Nurse on it but obstruction has allowed teams to cheat on the pk this season. Apparently supported by the NHL.

Lastly, Pulju can already fill in better on topline than Nuge has lately and I suspect going forward Pulju will provide the ice tilting fill in we need to get a goal be it EV or on PP when we load up. Frankly McDrai loaded up with Pulju is a thing of beauty so far.

Klef with one shoulder would move the puck around well but was not a scoring threat from the point. This season I would undoubtedly take Nurse on the PP over Klef and Barrie fwiw.

Nuge has always been a very good PP player, IMO you and others are not giving him the credit that he deserves there just because he has been poor at ES and because you do not like the player. If he leaves we will find out just how important he was. Pulju IMO would be better served as the netfront guy that bumps out into the slot for onetimers while RNH works the wall. Basically Pulju would be a bigger, faster and more dynamic Chiasson. There's room for RNH and Pulju on the top unit.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Well, I didn't COMPARE RNH to Letestu.

& I'd really like my ability to like posts restored.
It's been long enough.

It'll be longer now that you decided to act like I owe you something.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It is true that "held hostage" is over the top but it feels that way when we have fans saying we just need to keep RNH at all costs because we aren't allowed to downgrade in talent, and then combine that with the fact that there are teams out there that are desperate and will give him the same kind of contract that Nashville gave Turris, and there is a decent chance it ends about as well.

So I should say it is not RNH "holding us hostage" but more like his advocates.

There is a point where any player becomes a cap liability. I wouldn't give RNH $7 million long term for instance and I am one of his biggest fans. That said, brushing aside what he does contribute doesn't mean that he won't be hard to replace especially on the PP. We can both win and lose by not paying him what he feels that he is worth. The hope is that if we lose that it is a short term loss and not one that we will screw ourselves for 3-5 years before we can find a decent replacement.

 

[McOilers97]

RNH has been a good PP player throughout his career - BUT - McDavid and Draisaitl are running the PP now, and RNH’s usage has therefore changed. He’s now playing the left side and in that spot, he is by no means irreplaceable. He’d be great running the 2nd unit if that unit really got any playing time, but I think we need a right-handed shot on the left boards on unit #1 in order to operate at full capability.

There’s no one-timer threat from that side of the ice right now, and RNH gets a lot of looks with his wrist shot from there but is very low % at actually cashing in.

 

[Mr Positive]

There is a point where any player becomes a cap liability. I wouldn't give RNH $7 million long term for instance and I am one of his biggest fans. That said, brushing aside what he does contribute doesn't mean that he won't be hard to replace especially on the PP. We can both win and lose by not paying him what he feels that he is worth. The hope is that if we lose that it is a short term loss and not one that we will screw ourselves for 3-5 years before we can find a decent replacement.

Well yes I feel like I'm criticizing him a lot, but by the same token I'm always suggesting the borders on a new deal, and it is around the 6 million mark, more like 5.5, and for 3 years, 4 max.

But that's still a ton of cash and it represents that I want him on this team still. If I didn't like him I'd say just walk from him and try someone else.

The fact that he is not extended yet is a good sign to me. We need to have a hard line with him. He's a good player, but can we say he's a core player anymore? Or, just a very good player?

 

[McOilers97]

Well yes I feel like I'm criticizing him a lot, but by the same token I'm always suggesting the borders on a new deal, and it is around the 6 million mark, more like 5.5, and for 3 years, 4 max.

But that's still a ton of cash and it represents that I want him on this team still. If I didn't like him I'd say just walk from him and try someone else.

The fact that he is not extended yet is a good sign to me. We need to have a hard line with him. He's a good player, but can we say he's a core player anymore? Or, just a very good player?

Yeah, certainly no longer a core player. A good player that gives some versatility to the top 6, but is likely to be passed by some younger players in the coming years.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

It'll be longer now that you decided to act like I owe you something.

Cool.
You showed me.
I guess I DID compare Letestu & RNH even though I clearly didn't.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Cool.
You showed me.
I guess I DID compare Letestu & RNH even though I clearly didn't.

Glad that you've come to realize that debating a hockey discussion and calling a PP that wasn't elite, elite is one thing and demanding something is quite another. The more you know.

 

[Messrules11]

Granlund and Wennberg. Neither guy replaces RNH. For all of the ES crap that he gets this season (it is deserved) he has still been a critical part of a very good PK and an elite PP.

I never advocated for Granlund and Wennberg, that was part of the article.
We need a righty to take Nuge’s spot on the Pp and the pk can be taught, hopefully to someone who can win draws and block shots

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

Glad that you've come to realize that debating a hockey discussion and calling a PP that wasn't elite, elite is one thing and demanding something is quite another. The more you know.

What, are you seriously taking credit for being right when you're not?

You probably still think I was comparing RNH & Letestu.

Also, nothing at all arrogant about your post. Nothing.

Let's look at some number shall we:

2020-21 Edmonton Oilers PP stats:
27% Rank #1
25.8% Net(PP goals for - goals against) Rank #1
I'd call this elite.

2016-17 Edmonton Oilers PP stats:
22.9% Rank #4
20.9% Net Rank #4
Pretty good but probably not elite.

Why don't we look at the PP numbers before & after Letestu was put on PP1 at the end of November 2016?

Before Nov 30th of the 2016-17 season:
16% Rank #18
12% Net Rank #23

This seems pretty bad. Let's see what happened after they plugged in some nobody.

After Nov 30th of the 2016-17 season:
25.9% Rank #1
24.7% Net Rank #1

I'm guessing the cutoff for elite must be 26% for the PP & 25% for the Net.

I also want to point out I'm not saying the uptick in PP stats was because of Mark Letestu's presence because it surely was not. I'm just pointing out that he was on a half-decent PP1 but not elite, so I will apologize for trying to claim it was elite since it fell just short of those tried & true numbers, that we all accept, to be elite.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

It is true that "held hostage" is over the top but it feels that way when we have fans saying we just need to keep RNH at all costs because we aren't allowed to downgrade in talent, and then combine that with the fact that there are teams out there that are desperate and will give him the same kind of contract that Nashville gave Turris, and there is a decent chance it ends about as well.

So I should say it is not RNH "holding us hostage" but more like his advocates.

I'm not sure where anyone is pushing sign Nugent Hopkins at all costs and term considerations. I try to weed out the extreme on both sides of the discussion including inflammatory personal characterizations. The middle ground within carries a lot of good discussion. Turris is a reasonable player comp and cautionary of both the asset cost to acquire centremen and risk involved in big money deals that pre-covid carried high financial cost and tended to have long-tail term. Centremen and elite d likely the most covetted position players in free agency.

Covid flat cap has reset the market. We're seeing this drag play out in the Nugent Hopkins contract negotiations. The Oilers are entering into their window to compete for a Cup and need to do so while figuring out fair value on several UFA key players of which Nugent Hopkins is highest profile and a productive top six player. I view it as good news that Holland has, by limited reports, seems to have set a ceiling on Nugent Hopkins salary demands and that it is being grinded out versus a rushed signing to avoid UFA and losing the player for nothing. Holland needs to balance team needs to compete for a Cup now and a player's value and contribution to help it.

Holland finally has some cap space this season coming as this team looks to move into Cup contending window. He'll also have a strong pipeline of young, cheap and solid potential to drag salary while strengthening the NHL depth with players like McLeod, Holloway, maybe Lavoire and even Benson and rearguards Broberg, Samaroukov joining young NHL blue liners Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson and Jones. The Oilers will have reasonable flexibility to build from a solid core roster closing in on cup competitiveness. I see at least one more proven top six forward to give them legitimate quality depth and versatility. A goaltender upgrade for a #1 guy to play and win over the next three to five years.

The team is close and I just think it is able to look at core (including Nugent Hopkins) and add versus seeking replacement costs via free agency or trade assets. The unique one year bargain prove contracts of last year have been hit and miss. Trade for proven top six forward support and you risk hollowing out organizational depth and cheap salaries for sustaining competitiveness.

I trust Holland's experience to make the hard call on Nugent Hopkins value and replacement plan if they can't work it out. Ultimately it's Nugent Hopkins choice. The big picture is this team moving up to become legitimate Cup contenders. There's work to be done there, imo.

 

[Stoneman89]

I'm not sure where anyone is pushing sign Nugent Hopkins at all costs and term considerations. I try to weed out the extreme on both sides of the discussion including inflammatory personal characterizations. The middle ground within carries a lot of good discussion. Turris is a reasonable player comp and cautionary of both the asset cost to acquire centremen and risk involved in big money UFA deals that pre-covid carried high financial cost and tended to have long-tail term. Centremen and elite d likely the most covetted position players in free agency.

Covid flat cap has reset the market. We're seeing this drag play out in the Nugent Hopkins contract negotiations. The Oilers are entering into their window to compete for a Cup and need to do so while figuring out fair value on several UFA key players of which Nugent Hopkins is highest profile and a productive top six player. I view it as good news that Holland has, by limited reports, seems to have set a ceiling on Nugent Hopkins salary demands and that it is being grinded out versus a rushed signing to avoid UFA and losing the player for nothing. Holland needs to balance team needs to compete for a Cup now and a player's value and contribution to help it.

Holland finally has some cap space this season coming as this team looks to move into Cup contending window. He'll also have a strong pipeline of young, cheap and solid potential to drag salary while strengthening the NHL depth with players like McLeod, Holloway, maybe Lavoire and even Benson and rearguards Broberg, Samaroukov joining young NHL blue liners Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson and Jones. The Oilers will have reasonable flexibility to build from a solid core roster closing in on cup competitiveness. I see at least one more proven top six forward to give them legitimate quality depth and versatility. A goaltender upgrade for a #1 guy to play and win over the next three to five years.

The team is close and I just think it is able to look at core (including Nugent Hopkins) and add versus seeking replacement costs via free agency or trade assets. The unique one year bargain prove contracts of last year have been hit and miss. Trade for proven top six forward support and you risk hollowing out organizational depth and cheap salaries for sustaining competitiveness.

I trust Holland's experience to make the hard call on Nugent Hopkins value and replacement plan if they can't work it out. Ultimately it's Nugent Hopkins choice.

I'm just not seeing where all of this so-called cap room we're going to have this off season is. We need to sign Larsson, and IMO Barrie, and also Nuge. We still have the 5.75 mill and 4.5 million anchors of Neal and Koskinen weighing on us,the 575,000 of Turris to move or bury, as well as a bunch of others to sign. IMO, next year is when some relief comes, as Koskinen's deal is finally done, and we could bury Neal's contract without incurring too much damage going forward.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I'm just not seeing where all of this so-called cap room we're going to have this season is. We need to sign Larsson, and IMO Barrie, and also Nuge. We still have the 5.75 mill and 4.5 million anchors of Neal and Koskinen weighing on us,the 575,000 of Turris to move or bury, as well as a bunch of others to sign. IMO, next year is when some relief comes, as Koskinen's deal is finally done, and we could bury Neal's contract without incurring too much damage going forward.

Yes, that's true for sure. I mean relative to what Holland inherited which severely limited his decision making.

He has massive work to do this year with the money that's opening up and the free agents to make decisions on. But he will have money for replacement players if he cannot sign or chooses to no resign any of the high quality UFA group. Can also weed out some bottom six players with young options in McLeod, Holloway, and a couple d-men. Nugent Hopkins and Barrie are the lynchpins in this and likely most unknown. Decisions about Neal and Koskinen this off-season could also potentially open money.

Sorry, I didn't communicate the salary cap situation quite like I intended.

EDIT: Through all of this it why I've really supported having a deeply experienced GM in Holland to navigate this team out of Chiarelli handcuffs nibbling around high financial limitations and moving this team quickly towards playoff and ultimately Cup contention.

 

[Fourier]

Hoffman will for sure be cheaper. He took one year 4 mil this year

He took one year becuase he could not get his price on a long term deal due to the cap situation. He'll be looking for money and term this year. With Seattle in the game he'd be a good bet to get it.

 

[MessierII]

He took one year becuase he could not get his price on a long term deal due to the cap situation. He'll be looking for money and term this year. With Seattle in the game he'd be a good bet to get it.

The cap situation is the exact same though.

 

[Mr Positive]

He took one year becuase he could not get his price on a long term deal due to the cap situation. He'll be looking for money and term this year. With Seattle in the game he'd be a good bet to get it.

There's quite a few UFAs that seem to have done that. Either they signed for 1 year to be UFA now, or they had a long term deal and are waiting for their deal to expire rather than re-signing for a "covid cap rate".

So yes, let them go to Seattle looking for big cash because other teams don't have it, but not all of these guys will get an offer from Seattle. So we will see

 

[Fourier]

The cap situation is the exact same though.

No its not. Last year the flat cap caught teams by suprise as the expectation was that the cap was going to rise to about $85.5M. Last year teams had to get rid of a lot of deadweight to get to compliance and ti sign their key FA's. They signed did mange to sign most of their key FA's and cut salary in a lot of places. So while there are a few teams that are in cap heel most teams are in much better shape than they were last year. Add in Seattle an teh amount of cap space for teh small number of good FA's is much greater proportionally than it was last year. Moreover, there is a lot more certainty going forward right now than there was going into the year.

 

[belair]

The cap situation is the exact same though.

Short-term it is. Long-term it isn't.

 

[MessierII]

No its not. Last year the flat cap caught teams by suprise as the expectation was that the cap was going to rise to about $85.5M. Last year teams had to get rid of a lot of deadweight to get to compliance and ti sign their key FA's. They signed did mange to sign most of their key FA's and cut salary in a lot of places. So while there are a few teams that are in cap heel most teams are in much better shape than they were last year. Add in Seattle an teh amount of cap space for teh small number of good FA's is much greater proportionally than it was last year. Moreover, there is a lot more certainty going forward right now than there was going into the year.

There’s more jobs available because of Seattle but every team has the same amount of money to spend as they did last year. There isn’t a bunch of extra money to throw at players. Certainty factor plays a bit of a factor I guess but it’s still uncertain exactly when the cap will rise again, when fans will be allowed back etc. there’s still a ton of uncertainty.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

No its not. Last year the flat cap caught teams by suprise as the expectation was that the cap was going to rise to about $85.5M. Last year teams had to get rid of a lot of deadweight to get to compliance and ti sign their key FA's. They signed did mange to sign most of their key FA's and cut salary in a lot of places. So while there are a few teams that are in cap heel most teams are in much better shape than they were last year. Add in Seattle an teh amount of cap space for teh small number of good FA's is much greater proportionally than it was last year. Moreover, there is a lot more certainty going forward right now than there was going into the year.

Yes, some teams got rid of some dead weight, but I think you're missing that a lot of teams did some questionable things to get under the cap and are going to have even MORE trouble this year. Think about performance bonuses that will suck up cap space next year. Buyouts with higher costs in year 2 of the buyout than year 1. Young players who got bridge deals rather than long-term contracts with escalating salaries, thereby pushing cap hits from 2020/21 to 20201/22. Guys who took year year salaries who will expect big $ now that teams had a year to recover.

I think we'll continue to see a constrained cap situation well into 2022/23

 

[Fourier]

There's quite a few UFAs that seem to have done that. Either they signed for 1 year to be UFA now, or they had a long term deal and are waiting for their deal to expire rather than re-signing for a "covid cap rate".

So yes, let them go to Seattle looking for big cash because other teams don't have it, but not all of these guys will get an offer from Seattle. So we will see

There are very few significant players who will make it to UFA status this year. By my count there are between 15-20 potential UFA's that could be in line for salaries in the $3.5M+ range and there is a good chance 1/3-1/2 of them resign before they sign. And there are more teams that can take on salary especially since it looks like teams will be much closer to normal on. In that group there are probably 5-7 guys that the Oilers could really nenfit from signing but maybe only 4-5 hit UFA status. Unfortunately, these are guys who all teams will want first.

 

[Fourier]

There’s more jobs available because of Seattle but every team has the same amount of money to spend as they did last year. There isn’t a bunch of extra money to throw at players. Certainty factor plays a bit of a factor I guess but it’s still uncertain exactly when the cap will rise again, when fans will be allowed back etc. there’s still a ton of uncertainty.

There is a formula in place for how the cap plays out. By that if there are fans next year the cap will start to rise in the following season.