Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2: Has His Recent Concussion Complicated Things More?

[McOilers97]

That article is almost exactly what some of us have been saying in this thread.

Yep, if he wants $6-6.5m, then it’s 4 years max, and I’m not sure I’d be offering more than 5 years for any (realistic) price.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

That article is almost exactly what some of us have been saying in this thread.

So much so the comments of Spector and a couple scouts seem almost lifted off here. Wouldn't be the first time local sports beat writers have.

"Could you sign a Mike Hoffman and [Philip] Danault, for that $6-7 million?” asked a third scout. “If Nugent-Hopkins says he’ll sign for $5 million, that’s different. If he commands $6-7 million, I’m looking around.”

I mean thats exactly what I and others were gunning for in this thread and the previous one.

That's too funny! I haven't read this thread so I haven't seen these posts...how nice of Spec to consider some of you as NHL scouts .

 

[Drivesaitl]

That's too funny! I haven't read this thread so I haven't seen these posts...how nice of Spec to consider some of you as NHL scouts .

Spector, Staples, Brownlee, Lowetide, others, heh, have gone fishing here for years. They've had accounts here and posted here. Just ftr. I mean I've even echo tested their propensity to lift comments anywhere they can find it. At least with Staples he would ask if he could borrow some comment.

Its a nice article though. But also features some lazy thoughts from scouts, both ways. Its interesting that the comments of scouts are not really all that enlightening. One would expect better analysis.

"What he brings". The segments immediately pre, and post injury speak to what a vast difference there is in Nuge consistency, and what he brings game to game. He'll turn it up some games or settle for less, usually he's in the lower gear.

"I love this player" yeah, not very objective, but honest..

lol at the Victor Tarasenko as comparable. How on Earth is Nuge comparable to a player with more Goals/G more Pts. game and that has scored 40 goal season and has multiple 70something pt seasons. That said it looks like Tarasenko is well past his best days due to injuries and age.

Not sure I agree with the "Nuge can do it all comment" Nuge is -4 having played much of the season with either generational superstars or good shutdown players like Yama. Really he's been glued to players that have been good in own zone this year and he's a minus player on a team that has been knocking it out of the park.

 

[Chabot84]

If we win the cup this year then we sign him. If we’re knocked out first or second round, then it’s JMO that he’s not a winner and I want to insert winners into this lineup.

 

[Snipes45]

If you know you can bring somebody in better than him, sign Nuge. If his salary will handcuff you, forget it.

Our top 6 does not cu tit and they just want to bring back the same guys?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

No big shock with the Spector column. As stated, covid flat cap changed everything. Last year free agents were the canaries in the coalmine who faced a financial re-set in really three ways - super elites got their money; some top end took one-year show me contracts; and majority of worker bees took substantive haircuts. Contract term in all but the super elites was dragged as team maybe finally get a handle on tightening up the killer length that leads to many buy-outs.

Not surprisingly, the opinion of anonymous NHL scouts is widely split on Nugent Hopkins. The guy whose seen him most and for longest duration lauds the depth and versatility of the player's game. The one that's located in the East feels he is easily replaced.

Spector's conclusion is the reality at hand. Nugent Hopkins is going to determine if his future is in Edmonton or somewhere else. If pre-covid, you could tell me Nugent Hopkins could be retained for Spector's line in the sand ("If he’ll take a four-year, $25 million deal, he can be part of it. If he wants significantly more term or money, he can go out in the marketplace and see if some other team sees him as a $6 million-plus player."), I would take that and run with cap money opening up to fill the chronic depth issue this team has had with top six forward depth.

This is a tricky negotiation for a playoff team looking to build into a legitimate Cup Contender. Covid cap's changed everything as Spector attributes.

EDIT: Adding Jim Matheson's recent column with thoughts on Nugent Hopkin's contract and perceived value. Some valid points about the top six forward depth on this team as well which has long been a chronic issue: Oilers need Nugent-Hopkins to drive a second offensive line | Saltwire

 

[LTIR]

Maybe take a step back so we can take 2 steps forward later.
Walk away from Nuge and Barrie replacing them internally with McLeod and Bouchard.
Use the saved cap to add depth and a better supporting cast. Open up these roster spots for free agents to try their luck.

 

[Mr Positive]

No big shock with the Spector column. As stated, covid flat cap changed everything. Last year free agents were the canaries in the coalmine who faced a financial re-set in really three ways - super elites got their money; some top end took one-year show me contracts; and majority of worker bees took substantive haircuts. Contract term in all but the super elites was dragged as team maybe finally get a handle on tightening up the killer length that leads to many buy-outs.

Not surprisingly, the opinion of anonymous NHL scouts is widely split on Nugent Hopkins. The guy whose seen him most and for longest duration lauds the depth and versatility of the player's game. The one that's located in the East feels he is easily replaced.

Spector's conclusion is the reality at hand. Nugent Hopkins is going to determine if his future is in Edmonton or somewhere else. If pre-covid, you could tell me Nugent Hopkins could be retained for Spector's line in the sand ("If he’ll take a four-year, $25 million deal, he can be part of it. If he wants significantly more term or money, he can go out in the marketplace and see if some other team sees him as a $6 million-plus player."), I would take that and run with cap money opening up to fill the chronic depth issue this team has had with top six forward depth.

This is a tricky negotiation for a playoff team looking to build into a legitimate Cup Contender. Covid cap's changed everything as Spector attributes.

EDIT: Adding Jim Matheson's recent column with thoughts on Nugent Hopkin's contract and perceived value. Some valid points about the top six forward depth on this team as well which has long been a chronic issue: Oilers need Nugent-Hopkins to drive a second offensive line | Saltwire

That deal, 25 million over 4 years is at least sane. The big issue is the term.

Even then, the only way that RNH is worth that is if he can run a 2nd line. It's looking better lately, but that's vs the Canucks. The playoffs will determine his fate. But the contract isn't tricky. That 6.25 AAV x 4 years is the maximum. If he wants more, develop Holloway as a center, sign one of the UFA wingers to a Barrie type deal, and have Drai as 2C for a while. Don't get held hostage by competing with offers from desperate teams like Columbus

 

[Fourier]

I think we can all read and that isn’t what was said. The scout your referring too included Granlund and specifically said two 3m players could replace him. Nice try though.

I am fully aware of this. But if the strategy is to spend the money on two players you should at least try and do something that improves the team. Wennberg this year has 13 goals which is his career high. To get those 13 goals he had a sh% of just under 17% compared with his normal 8%. And despite playing a good part of the season on the second line with Huberdeau as well as playing center on the second pp he is still on pace for 37 points. This is a guy who has already been bought out once on a big contract. Is he a realistic top six forward on the Oilers? At best he would be a $2-3M third line center with no pp time who you can exepect in that role to get you 8-10 goals and 20-25 points with the Oilers current bottom six wingers.

Maybe you can argue that instead they could spend the $6M on 6 players who will each get 6 goals and 15 points. After all that sums to 36 goals and 90 points so you come out ahead. Or is is possible that the whole "replace Nuge with multiple players" idea is flawed and what you really want to do is find better players than you already have so that the team improves. The Oilers have prosepcts who will be cheap who can fill holes in teh bottom of the roster or who may even be able to fill one of the top six slots allowing you to keep Nuge, add a guy like Granlund and then to to move a guy like Yamamoto to your third line. But if Nuge walks an teh Oilers targets to replace what he brings to the team are guys like Wennberg then that is a massive failure. This team needs to get better not step back.

 

[Fourier]

So much so the comments of Spector and a couple scouts seem almost lifted off here. Wouldn't be the first time local sports beat writers have.

"Could you sign a Mike Hoffman and [Philip] Danault, for that $6-7 million?” asked a third scout. “If Nugent-Hopkins says he’ll sign for $5 million, that’s different. If he commands $6-7 million, I’m looking around.”

I mean thats exactly what I and others were gunning for in this thread and the previous one.

Danuatlt turned down $5M from the Habs. Hoffman signed a 1 year deal for $4M and is going to be looking to get paid. If you could sign both for $6-7M then I am all for it. But that is less likely than Nuge signing for $3.5M. This scout may not have much future as a GM.

 

[belair]

Yeah, if those comments were actually coming from employed NHL scouts, I'd be supremely disappointed at the quality of analysis being provided to us.

That question: If McLeod is your 3C moving forward, what do you need RNH for?

Wow. Fire that guy now.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I think we can all read and that isn’t what was said. The scout your referring too included Granlund and specifically said two 3m players could replace him. Nice try though.

Granlund and Wennberg. Neither guy replaces RNH. For all of the ES crap that he gets this season (it is deserved) he has still been a critical part of a very good PK and an elite PP.

 

[Soundwave]

I doubt RNH will take less than a overpaid contract.

He can get 7 x 6 from Seattle he knows it even though he also probably deep down knows he's not actually worth that money, but that's what the UFA market is, general overpayment.

It's not about "replacing" RNH directly straight away either, it's just about giving McDavid and Draisaitl something to work with.

If you move on from him, I'd look at signing Hoffman + Haula and trading for Rakell to boot.

 

[jeffff]

Is there any chance that RNH asks for max term but at a really reasonable number? Instead of signing for 4 years/25 million....what about a 32 million contract 8 years at 4 million? Would we even do that?

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

Granlund and Wennberg. Neither guy replaces RNH. For all of the ES crap that he gets this season (it is deserved) he has still been a critical part of a very good PK and an elite PP.

Mark Letestu was also a critical part of an elite PP.
Pretty sure the PP isn't/wasn't elite because of RNH/Letestu is all I'm saying. I have a feeling it might be for some other reasons.

 

[Mr Positive]

Granlund and Wennberg. Neither guy replaces RNH. For all of the ES crap that he gets this season (it is deserved) he has still been a critical part of a very good PK and an elite PP.

I'm not sure he's so critical to the PP. The PK is good, but you shouldn't be paying players big cash for good PK work when a guy like Sheehan can do it.

 

[Soundwave]

Klefbom + Benson for Rakell

Sign UFA Hoffman

Sign UFA B. Sutter or E. Haula

I mean I would say that roster is better than the one the Oilers have now, long term they'd have good cap flexibility to add a really, really good player too.

 

[Fourier]

Klefbom + Benson for Rakell

Sign UFA Hoffman

Sign UFA B. Sutter or E. Haula

I mean I would say that roster is better than the one the Oilers have now, long term they'd have good cap flexibility to add a really, really good player too.

Hoffman won't be any cheaper than Nuge. One year out Rakell costs you just as much.

 

[Soundwave]

Hoffman won't be any cheaper than Nuge. One year out Rakell costs you just as much.

I think RNH is looking at 7 mill per for 6 years. Seattle will offer him this and he knows it.

You could probably get Hoffman for 5 mill per for 2 years or something like that.

That's a big difference in long term cap flexibility.

If Rakell produces, then pay him.

 

[MessierII]

Hoffman won't be any cheaper than Nuge. One year out Rakell costs you just as much.

Hoffman will for sure be cheaper. He took one year 4 mil this year

 

[Soundwave]

The term is what kills you, the dollar amount on a short term deal is not the big deal.

If the Oilers had signed Lucic to a 7 mill deal for 3 years it would be better than what they ended up with which was 6 mill for 7 years. We're still stuck basically with a huge chunk of frozen cap because of that signing (Holland tried to shuffle deck chairs around by turning it into Neal, but same diff).

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Mark Letestu was also a critical part of an elite PP.
Pretty sure the PP isn't/wasn't elite because of RNH/Letestu is all I'm saying. I have a feeling it might be for some other reasons.

I'm not sure he's so critical to the PP. The PK is good, but you shouldn't be paying players big cash for good PK work when a guy like Sheehan can do it.

Not even close, last season's PP was historical. You can't just put any plug into the PP that knows Connor's and Leon's tendencies.

Letestu was a one timer and nothing else (well faceoff guy which Drai is now). Nuge can shoot it and pass as well as read the play, not even close to a comparable. May as well compare Hemsky and McDavid while you're at it.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Not even close, last season's PP was historical. You can't just put any plug into the PP that knows Connor's and Leon's tendencies.

Letestu was a one timer and nothing else (well faceoff guy which Drai is now). Nuge can shoot it and pass as well as read the play, not even close to a comparable. May as well compare Hemsky and McDavid while you're at it.

Tippett and the coaching staff are given too little credit for a transformative PP. The two Tippett seasons, both years the PP has had dramatic improvement as well as D usage and production on it.

I'll also cite that people before this season were saying such things as the PP would not be good at all in the absence of Klefbom. I always maintained Nurse was better on PP. I continue to maintain that with the riches of D we have going forward, that it will be routine for the Oilers to run PP with 2 rather than one D, and that this will continue as our offensive D greatly supplement our McDrai all world tandem. Really with the D we can put on a first unit PP, combined with McDrai, a lot of players can slide in to fill Nuge bumper role on PP.

I disagree with you on this. Nuge role on PP is often being overstated. He's no more required on the PP than Klefbom was. Despite numbers I feel the PP actually looks better this season with Barrie and Nurse on it but obstruction has allowed teams to cheat on the pk this season. Apparently supported by the NHL.

Lastly, Pulju can already fill in better on topline than Nuge has lately and I suspect going forward Pulju will provide the ice tilting fill in we need to get a goal be it EV or on PP when we load up. Frankly McDrai loaded up with Pulju is a thing of beauty so far.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

That deal, 25 million over 4 years is at least sane. The big issue is the term.

Even then, the only way that RNH is worth that is if he can run a 2nd line. It's looking better lately, but that's vs the Canucks. The playoffs will determine his fate. But the contract isn't tricky. That 6.25 AAV x 4 years is the maximum. If he wants more, develop Holloway as a center, sign one of the UFA wingers to a Barrie type deal, and have Drai as 2C for a while. Don't get held hostage by competing with offers from desperate teams like Columbus

I don't take anything from a small sample size of Nugent Hopkins, Kahun and Yamamoto other than it reinforces the long standing, massive need to add another high end winger to a threadbare top six that gets razor thin (and small) when Tippett stacks McDavid with Draisaitl and Puljujarvi. Not surprisingly Draisaitl's expected goals/60 drops from over 5 with generational elite McDavid to 2.45 with Kahun and Yamamoto. Quality top six depth is a chronic issue for this team.

This is moreso a stretch drive chemistry test by Tippett to trial moving people around to see what versatility might be gained going into the playoffs. What he knows is Nugent Hopkins can play wing with McDavid or Draisaitl and can slot into a 2C role with rotating wingers ... marginally successful.

The Oilers want to propel from a playoff team to a Cup Contender next year ... if not possibly even this year. It won't likely make this jump if they try to ice next year a zero NHL game Holloway or seven game McLeod into a 2C role. Now I 've long believed this team needs to run McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines to compete against elite teams deep in the playoffs, so letting Nugent Hopkins go requires adding two top wingers, faith that Yamamoto resets his scoring production and that Puljujarvi continues his fantastic growth and development. Do you land Toffoli hit it out of the park replacement production or Taylor Hall Buffalo or even Hoffman St. Louis production with replacement forwards? No certainty so there is risk.

No offence but I find your terminology 'being held hostage' a bit over the top. This is a tough negotiation by limited reporting in considering Covid cap reset and determining how Nugent Hopkin's versatility and complementing game fits salary wise into a team on the tipping point of finally breaking through. Holland talks all the time about grinding in his work so I feel generally he has a reasonable line in the sand for this player and won't necessarily be reactive to what can happen in free agency. He had his eyes wide open deciding to keep all his UFA's to give this team its best chance to succeed in making the playoffs. Nugent Hopkins has a big decision to make in choosing his future.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah, your opinion is a fact. They are/were very good PP units statistically.

& I never compared Letestu to RNH. I was very careful not to but whatever, you do you.

& while we're at it why don't you go ahead & restore my ability to like posts.

jebus, eat a snickers or something