The COVID 19 Thread (Part II - READ MOD WARNING IN OP)

[polarbearcub]

That will depend entirely on test volume and criteria. If we are as rigorous as possible there’s no possible way that we’ll be opening back up this calendar year if we test most people because of how long community transmission has been going on.



I don’t understand the tunnel visioning for a vaccine. An effective drug treatment would be good enough wouldn’t it?

if very successful treatments come a long , I see sports resuming with limited fans in 2021. Guess it all depends on every cities situation as well. Revenue sharing is going to be an issue. Quite honestly I see multiple teams folding in the nhl. Florida , Arizona , Carolina possibly

 

[Jack Burton]

if very successful treatments come a long , I see sports resuming with limited fans in 2021. Guess it all depends on every cities situation as well. Revenue sharing is going to be an issue. Quite honestly I see multiple teams folding in the nhl. Florida , Arizona , Carolina possibly

When we finally get out of this...revenue WILL be at the forefront.

Bettman been cooking the books for years

It's going to be interesting me thinks.

 

[Jack Burton]

As for the Covid sh*t...anothe 4 weeks of self distance then 2 weeks of no cases.

We just gotta do it.

 

[David71]

I’ve heard from a trusted source who’s been right about a few things but the plan for bc is 21 days after we have 4-5 days of no positive tests that we will start opening back up.

however social distancing and all will be in effect until a vaccine is available.

damn. its gonna last throughout summer then..

 

[Didalee Hed]

damn. its gonna last throughout summer then..

I don’t know why anyone even wants to rush back to anything. This virus isn’t a joke. It’s mowing people down. And they don’t come back.

 

[David71]

I don’t know why anyone even wants to rush back to anything. This virus isn’t a joke. It’s mowing people down. And they don’t come back.

not that anyone wants to rush anything but do you think people will acutally like to stay inside for that long? yah go outside a bit in your neighborhood depending on the weather to excercise.. some people can't really stay inside that long ya know.

 

[Didalee Hed]

not that anyone wants to rush anything but do you think people will acutally like to stay inside for that long? yah go outside a bit in your neighborhood depending on the weather to excercise.. some people can't really stay inside that long ya know.

Stay inside.

 

[David71]

Stay inside.

yeah i do stay inside. but go out for walks/runs around neighborhood to get fresh air and come back in anyways

 

[Didalee Hed]

yeah i do stay inside. but go out for walks/runs around neighborhood to get fresh air and come back in anyways

Good man. Me too. It’s not about us as individuals. It’s about keeping our loved ones safe. If I do something selfish and pick up the virus, then give it to a loved one and they die? I’m gonna f***ing kill myself.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I have not heard of one confirmed case in Chilliwack yet. Golf and walking, don't get within 10 feet of anyone. We are older, and my wife has asthma. However, until they get a vaccine, this is going to be going on for 2 years. Like spanish flu, probably get 3 waves of it. Its going to kill a lot of people, and its going to suck.

 

[Hit the post]

I have not heard of one confirmed case in Chilliwack yet. Golf and walking, don't get within 10 feet of anyone. We are older, and my wife has asthma. However, until they get a vaccine, this is going to be going on for 2 years. Like spanish flu, probably get 3 waves of it. Its going to kill a lot of people, and its going to suck.

Doesn't help it when a number of States are likely to "re-open for business" way too soon (and that's WITHOUT the urging of the grifter in DC). Like Texas.

 

[rypper]

I have not heard of one confirmed case in Chilliwack yet. Golf and walking, don't get within 10 feet of anyone. We are older, and my wife has asthma. However, until they get a vaccine, this is going to be going on for 2 years. Like spanish flu, probably get 3 waves of it. Its going to kill a lot of people, and its going to suck.

I'm sure it's here, I feel like I recall hearing about cases at CGH, but nobody seems to know anyone who has it or is personally connected to someone who does. Maybe anyone from Chilliwack who has it, is moved to Abbotsford regional hospital where they might be better equipped to handle it?

 

[xtra]

damn. its gonna last throughout summer then..

I think they are internally aiming for the end of may early June to give kids one or two weeks back in school.

personally I think they should just forget this school year and aim for September but I cant imagine how hard it has been for parents suddenly at home with kids; trying to teach them and work full time.

 

[xtra]

Sorry tripod I didn’t know how to link to your post any other way

but this is good - great news

 

[Diversification]

I don’t understand the tunnel visioning for a vaccine. An effective drug treatment would be good enough wouldn’t it?

In a word, no. A vaccine confers immunity. Enough people get it, and you have herd immunity. A treatment for any viral infection, is a prophylactic. Think PrEP for HIV. It would have to be taken regularly to maintain efficacy.

There have been a lot of different ideas out there for what a treatment would be - CarT cell treatment, small molecule inhibitors for Covd-19 proteases, ACE inhibitors that block viral docking, antibody infusions.

All of these things are at minimum half a year away because you need to go through clinical trials. And any treatment would then have to be scaled up to be a widely available - add another 4 months easy.

One interesting idea that's out there is to perform a challenge trial rather than a traditional phase 3. This would speed things up, especially for vaccine development. But it's risky. It basically uses young, healthy people that represent a cross section of society to be treated with the most promising vaccine candidate and then they would be innoculated with live Covid-19. Such a trial could be performed soon, given the candidates out there now.

 

[Jimnastic]

Australia here again. There are a large number of clinical trials going on here. This is the Hail Mary solution. Well, slightly better than that. There are two promising drugs. 1) An Antiviral called Remdesivir and 2) An Immune modulator called Interferon β, (which, if I remember correctly) showed promise for AIDS before they came up with the cocktail approach. If we find a drug that is effective as a treatment, we may be able to loosen the social distancing. Our largest trial started at the beginning of April in 50 hospitials. We should see some results by the end of the month they are saying.

 

[Hit the post]

In a word, no. A vaccine confers immunity. Enough people get it, and you have herd immunity. A treatment for any viral infection, is a prophylactic. Think PrEP for HIV. It would have to be taken regularly to maintain efficacy.

There have been a lot of different ideas out there for what a treatment would be - CarT cell treatment, small molecule inhibitors for Covd-19 proteases, ACE inhibitors that block viral docking, antibody infusions.

All of these things are at minimum half a year away because you need to go through clinical trials. And any treatment would then have to be scaled up to be a widely available - add another 4 months easy.

One interesting idea that's out there is to perform a challenge trial rather than a traditional phase 3. This would speed things up, especially for vaccine development. But it's risky. It basically uses young, healthy people that represent a cross section of society to be treated with the most promising vaccine candidate and then they would be innoculated with live Covid-19. Such a trial could be performed soon, given the candidates out there now.

Even WITH a working vaccine; you'll get a still sizeable amount of the population that will refuse to take it (anti-vaxxers).

 

[PG Canuck]

I don’t know why anyone even wants to rush back to anything. This virus isn’t a joke. It’s mowing people down. And they don’t come back.

Because the fall out of the economy will probably end up killing and ruining just as many peoples lives.

Can’t stay inside forever. Have to send people back to work at some point.

 

[RobertKron]

Because the economy won’t be massively impacted either way? Like it’s not a one or the other choice.

 

[PG Canuck]

Because the economy won’t be massively impacted either way? Like it’s not a one or the other choice.

Well obviously, that’s already happening as it is. The move would’ve been to shut everything down a month ago for two weeks and this would’ve passed but clearly that is too logical.

 

[Tripod]

Sorry tripod I didn’t know how to link to your post any other way

but this is good - great news

Spreading the good news is always a good thing!

 

[RobertKron]

Well obviously, that’s already happening as it is. The move would’ve been to shut everything down a month ago for two weeks and this would’ve passed but clearly that is too logical.

I mean, a month ago you were saying that you were more scared of government control over peoples' lives and movement than you were of the virus, so I don't know how you think that people would have been compliant enough with a lockdown order at that point to actually stop the spread.

 

[CherryToke]

This virus is no joke.

 

[I am toxic]

Everyone should take a look at the modelling that BC released on Friday.

here's my first impression:

iirc, the modeling suggests we have flattened the curve by reducing social contact to 30% of normal (assisted by google info on movements). The modelling further suggests we could go as high as 60% of normal contact and still keep the curve flat (and lower than it is now).

But at 80% of normal contact, the curve takes off again.

So what does that mean? Well, consider this. 30% is what we have been doing the past few weeks. Look at Sweden, where google data from about April 3rd was showing iirc transit usage at 65ish% of normal, restaurant/retail at 75ish% and workplace at 82%. They've kept their schools open for kids up to a certain age, about 15 iirc. For a population twice the size, they are facing 50 to 100 deaths daily, and appear to have a thousand in serious or critical condition (hard to tell, number on worldometer has been fluctuating bizarrely lately, presumably due to reporting lags). BC has less than 100 total deaths to date, and about 130 in hospital.

The problem is that the difference between 60% and 80% is massive per the modeling, so we will have to err on the side of caution. Outdoor activities could open up with social distancing measures maintained. Schools likely remain closed, same with restaurant dining. More retail could open up with the kind of measures we currently experience at places like Costco or Safeway etc. But sales will be down so retail will be somewhat limited. Sports, like school and restaurant dining, likely remains closed. Well, except for golfing.

Non-essential international travel will likely remain closed (and not really in our hands anyway). Travel within BC will be even more contentious than it already is. No idea what the modeling shows, epidemiologists always seem to think travel restrictions aren't effective, while real world experience shows time and again that they are.

Oh, and wear a mask when you go out. Make your own, use a scarf, whatever. 2 meters, wash hands to the baby shark song, don't touch face, and wear a mask.

 

[RobertKron]

This virus is no joke.

Jesus christ, the comments.