The COVID 19 Thread (Part II - READ MOD WARNING IN OP)

[RobertKron]

Everyone should take a look at the modelling that BC released on Friday.

here's my first impression:

iirc, the modeling suggests we have flattened the curve by reducing social contact to 30% of normal (assisted by google info on movements). The modelling further suggests we could go as high as 60% of normal contact and still keep the curve flat (and lower than it is now).

But at 80% of normal contact, the curve takes off again.

So what does that mean? Well, consider this. 30% is what we have been doing the past few weeks. Look at Sweden, where google data from about April 3rd was showing iirc transit usage at 65ish% of normal, restaurant/retail at 75ish% and workplace at 82%. They've kept their schools open for kids up to a certain age, about 15 iirc. For a population twice the size, they are facing 50 to 100 deaths daily, and appear to have a thousand in serious or critical condition (hard to tell, number on worldometer has been fluctuating bizarrely lately, presumably due to reporting lags). BC has less than 100 total deaths to date, and about 130 in hospital.

The problem is that the difference between 60% and 80% is massive per the modeling, so we will have to err on the side of caution. Outdoor activities could open up with social distancing measures maintained. Schools likely remain closed, same with restaurant dining. More retail could open up with the kind of measures we currently experience at places like Costco or Safeway etc. But sales will be down so retail will be somewhat limited. Sports, like school and restaurant dining, likely remains closed. Well, except for golfing.

Non-essential international travel will likely remain closed (and not really in our hands anyway). Travel within BC will be even more contentious than it already is. No idea what the modeling shows, epidemiologists always seem to think travel restrictions aren't effective, while real world experience shows time and again that they are.

Oh, and wear a mask when you go out. Make your own, use a scarf, whatever. 2 meters, wash hands to the baby shark song, don't touch face, and wear a mask.

Part of the problem is that a lot of places don't have the resources or, unfortunately in some cases, the desire to enforce the type of measures needed to allow them to safely reopen.

 

[I am toxic]

Part of the problem is that a lot of places don't have the resources or, unfortunately in some cases, the desire to enforce the type of measures needed to allow them to safely reopen.

Yeah, been hit or miss at some places. Went past a small store on Main today, 2 employees, enforcing SD, 1 customer in at a time. Kudos to them. Other places, not so great, sometimes despite best efforts.

 

[Hit the post]

Part of the problem is that a lot of places don't have the resources or, unfortunately in some cases, the desire to enforce the type of measures needed to allow them to safely reopen.

Bigger problem is a good chunk of the population *choose* to wilfully ignore *any* kind of measures. Look at the movement(s) south of the border to "re-open". Granted, 'follow the money' (ie., who often funds those groups) and you'll find the usual suspects. Hopefully, it won't get real ugly there but they're playing with fire.

 

[Diversification]

Even WITH a working vaccine; you'll get a still sizeable amount of the population that will refuse to take it (anti-vaxxers).

Most anti-vaxxers (like McCarthy) rally around the idea that an early childhood vaccination regimen leads to autism spectrum disorder (spoiler alert: nearly all evidence indicates that it doesn’t). So those people might be resistant to Covid19 vaccines for young children but you can be sure they’ll want to take it for themselves.

 

[RobertKron]

Bigger problem is a good chunk of the population *choose* to wilfully ignore *any* kind of measures. Look at the movement(s) south of the border to "re-open". Granted, 'follow the money' (ie., who often funds those groups) and you'll find the usual suspects. Hopefully, it won't get real ugly there but they're playing with fire.

Well, sure, it's a shitshow in the US. Like, the f***ing president is telling people to protest measures put in place to prevent hundreds of thousands - if not millions - of potential deaths. He's interrupting his people at his own briefings to question the presentations that he himself is a part of. It's goddamn lord of the flies.

But we're talking in context of BC having done well enough that authorities are saying (and being adults enough that what they say is believable) that we've flattened the curve so far, so I'm kind of assuming at least some pretty good degree of widespread desire to get things right.

Even assuming that, it's still a pretty touch-and-go undertaking to try to open things like retail back up somewhat and not end up overshooting the intended target of interactions and pointing the curve back up to the moon. I think what we're more likely to see is some limited reintroduction of in-person schooling, opening up of things like some level of non-essential medical stuff, the courts, etc. Things that are more directly under control of the government, and as such are easier for them to keep an eye and a handle on.

 

[RobertKron]

Most anti-vaxxers (like McCarthy) rally around the idea that an early childhood vaccination regimen leads to autism spectrum disorder (spoiler alert: nearly all evidence indicates that it doesn’t). So those people might be resistant to Covid19 vaccines for young children but you can be sure they’ll want to take it for themselves.

The autism lie is obviously a big one, but in the somewhat limited interaction I've had with anti-vaxxers in my life, all of them have readily admitted that the autism thing is bullshit. They've all been opposed to childhood vaccination because it is, vaguely and without any real specifics, just bad. None have really been able to actually articulate what it is that is so specifically bad, or how, or why.

It has always, in my interactions, boiled down to "how dare some egghead/the big bad government act like they know better than I do when it comes to what's good for my child" and usually there's also a bit of fear of doing something that they don't really understand - and have at some point been told is bad somewhere on the internet - to their kid. I've never actually had any of them give me a real specific reason why it's better not to vaccinate, though. It's usually some argument-around-the-point about how even if they vaccinate their kids, it's possible for them to still get sick because effectiveness isn't 100%, some kind of vague talk about how corrupt the pharmaceutical industry is as a whole, or just straight up arguing that "not all kids are meant to be strong enough to survive" (and getting offended when it is pointed out that it's insane for them to assume that this isn't their child). As an aside, I kind of equate that last one with the people who will proudly say that "we need a good world war/disease/etc to weed out the population and teach people about hardship" as if they'd somehow be immune to all of this because they're the main character in the movie.

I get the sense that for a lot of them, it was a decision they made as scared new parents because enough doubts had been planted in the back of their minds, and now they've just dug in and reflexively become indignant when someone dares to imply that they might have acted against the best interest of their child, and so now they're sowing those seeds in other people, and on and on.

I do think that, at least for these folks, there might be a greater adoption because this is a disease that is tearing their world apart in real time, rather than something they've probably only heard vaguely mentioned in history class. (and yes, I understand that those other diseases are that way thanks to vaccination, but it's still a lot less visceral.)

 

[ChilliBilly]

The autism lie is obviously a big one, but in the somewhat limited interaction I've had with anti-vaxxers in my life, all of them have readily admitted that the autism thing is bullshit. They've all been opposed to childhood vaccination because it is, vaguely and without any real specifics, just bad. None have really been able to actually articulate what it is that is so specifically bad, or how, or why.

It has always, in my interactions, boiled down to "how dare some egghead/the big bad government act like they know better than I do when it comes to what's good for my child" and usually there's also a bit of fear of doing something that they don't really understand - and have at some point been told is bad somewhere on the internet - to their kid. I've never actually had any of them give me a real specific reason why it's better not to vaccinate, though. It's usually some argument-around-the-point about how even if they vaccinate their kids, it's possible for them to still get sick because effectiveness isn't 100%, some kind of vague talk about how corrupt the pharmaceutical industry is as a whole, or just straight up arguing that "not all kids are meant to be strong enough to survive" (and getting offended when it is pointed out that it's insane for them to assume that this isn't their child).

I get the sense that for a lot of them, it was a decision they made as scared new parents because enough doubts had been planted in the back of their minds, and now they've just dug in and reflexively become indignant when someone dares to imply that they might have acted against the best interest of their child, and so now they're sowing those seeds in other people, and on and on.

Unvaccinated kids should not be allowed in school. If the concept of herd immunity is beyond them, let them go live on a mountain some where.Not vaccinating kids is one of the most selfish things a person can do. Even if vaccines caused autism (they don't), they would still be necessary.

 

[RobertKron]

Unvaccinated kids should not be allowed in school. If the concept of herd immunity is beyond them, let them go live on a mountain some where.Not vaccinating kids is one of the most selfish things a person can do. Even if vaccines caused autism (they don't), they would still be necessary.

I agree, but I also sort of secondarily worry that this is a good way to get alternative schools pumping out kids who aren't being taught counterpoints to any of the weirdo shit their parents believe.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

@RobertKron @ChilliBilly

You guys are so wrong. I wish there was a place to debate this stuff because all I see online are echo chambers of anti-vaxxers and echo chambers of anti-anti-vaxxers where everyone just gets together with users they already agree with so they can agree with each other some more. No one ever bothers to research the other side’s best arguments so they spend all of their time fighting against straw men of the other side. Unfortunately most platforms have made themselves an unsafe place for people who are on the fence and looking to have a dialogue.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

I don’t know why anyone even wants to rush back to anything. This virus isn’t a joke. It’s mowing people down. And they don’t come back.

Because, as Brad Pitt said in The Big Short, 40,000 people in the USA die for every 1% that unemployment goes up. People who lose their jobs can develop depression and commit suicide, they often participate in addictive behaviors that can lead to serious health problems, they can develop a host of stress related illnesses due to the financial stress, etc. it all adds up. Shutting down the economy is not a joke either and it will also mow people down too and not everyone will come back either. It's not as black and white as you suggest.

 

[member 290103]

Because, as Brad Pitt said in The Big Short, 40,000 people in the USA die for every 1% that unemployment goes up. People who lose their jobs can develop depression and commit suicide, they often participate in addictive behaviors that can lead to serious health problems, they can develop a host of stress related illnesses due to the financial stress, etc. it all adds up. Shutting down the economy is not a joke either and it will also mow people down too and not everyone will come back either. It's not as black and white as you suggest.

The Big Short is an outstanding movie that should have won best picture. Really original. Was really disappointed in McKays follow up, Vice.

 

[rypper]

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, or you know, something like that.

 

[RobertKron]

Also big guffaw at RMB’s post.

 

[xtra]

@RobertKron @ChilliBilly

You guys are so wrong. I wish there was a place to debate this stuff because all I see online are echo chambers of anti-vaxxers and echo chambers of anti-anti-vaxxers where everyone just gets together with users they already agree with so they can agree with each other some more. No one ever bothers to research the other side’s best arguments so they spend all of their time fighting against straw men of the other side. Unfortunately most platforms have made themselves an unsafe place for people who are on the fence and looking to have a dialogue.

Wait are you anti-vax???

 

[Kryten]

Wait are you anti-vax???

Not likely but prepare to be replied in a way they conclude will “trigger” the most people like they always do

 

[ChilliBilly]

@RobertKron @ChilliBilly

You guys are so wrong. I wish there was a place to debate this stuff because all I see online are echo chambers of anti-vaxxers and echo chambers of anti-anti-vaxxers where everyone just gets together with users they already agree with so they can agree with each other some more. No one ever bothers to research the other side’s best arguments so they spend all of their time fighting against straw men of the other side. Unfortunately most platforms have made themselves an unsafe place for people who are on the fence and looking to have a dialogue.

complete bullshit. I have a science background, read extensively on the subject and will cheerfully debate why there are no legitimate grounds for being against vaccinations. None. As i said, bullshit. and no offense, but its ignorant people who are uneducated or not all that bright that disagree. It is the problem with the "internet", morons find BULLSHIT stories that support their position and claim the other guy is not listening.

The reality is that not all positions on a subject are created equally. I had a friend who is a world renown expert in his field doing a radio show in Vancouver, refuted a response to an episode fairly and logically. The person responded with more bullshit. He told the person who was administering the show that he was done. He answered reasonably against a Moron, and he did not need to get into a debate.

If you argue that the sun is not coming up tomorrow and I say it is, it is not a 50 - 50 debate. But vaccinations have probably saved more lives than all other medical treatments in history. And herd immunity is essential.

You post things that many disagree with. But this post does you a disservice - if you are trying to suggest pro vaccine people are unfairly not listening, show me some LEGITIMATE PEER REVIEWED SCIENCE as to why you disagree. I used to do a TV show myself, and one gets so tired of this crap. "This is my best argument"! Disproved. "Ok then this is my best argument!" also disproved. I have been doing this crap for 45 years and no your opinion is not equal to that of the accepted professional opinion.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

RMB is anti-vaxxer. Of course he is.

 

[Grantham]

Everyone should take a look at the modelling that BC released on Friday.

here's my first impression:

iirc, the modeling suggests we have flattened the curve by reducing social contact to 30% of normal (assisted by google info on movements). The modelling further suggests we could go as high as 60% of normal contact and still keep the curve flat (and lower than it is now).

But at 80% of normal contact, the curve takes off again.

So what does that mean? ...

I gotta say IAT, that is one of the best posts in this thread or even forum on this topic that I’ve read. Thank you for breaking it down for us and laying out what the numbers could mean.

I have close friends and family in both England and New York City, and its terrifying what can happen when you take this situation lightly. I’m hearing almost daily from friends in England of losing friends and close associates to this virus. I’m heartened that so far in this province the data shows we have brought down the numbers of outdoor activity to 30%. I hope we can stay the course and the people don’t start to get impatient and incite marches and other stupid behaviour for the sake of money and material things. Heck, I’ll live under a bridge if I have to, just don’t want to lose any of my loved ones or friends to this disease.

 

[VanJack]

Health experts are saying that for the U.S. economy to even think about re-opening, they're going to need to be conducting at least 500,000 COVID-19 tests per day. Currently they've barely cracked the 150,000 barrier and turns out even some of those early tests were contaminated.

Yet some freedom-fighting Governors and wacko protesters in their MAGA hats want to throw everything open again--beaches, food processing plants shut by COVID infestations; and bars/restaurants..etc. Let freedom ring!

So the choice is pretty simple. Either 50,000 people will die or the 140,000 or 150,000 projected in earlier doomsday Pandemic scenarios.

But 'better dead than red' I guess. At least that's the choice you're facing if you're unlucky enough to be living in a 'red state'.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Health experts are saying that for the U.S. economy to even think about re-opening, they're going to need to be conducting at least 500,000 COVID-19 tests per day. Currently they've barely cracked the 150,000 barrier and turns out even some of those early tests were contaminated.

Yet some freedom-fighting Governors and wacko protesters in their MAGA hats want to throw everything open again--beaches, food processing plants shut by COVID infestations; and bars/restaurants..etc. Let freedom ring!

So the choice is pretty simple. Either 50,000 people will die or the 140,000 or 150,000 projected in earlier doomsday Pandemic scenarios.

But 'better dead than red' I guess. At least that's the choice you're facing if you're unlucky enough to be living in a 'red state'.

It just makes my jaw drop how fast and how far the bar has fallen. You've got a guy in charge who one day tweets about how he has the ultimate authority over everything...and then can't coordinate anything on any kind of national level. And Americans are by and large totally inured to it to the point where they don't even blink. Somehow they can reconcile MURICA!!! with every state left on its own when something serious happens, and I just can't get that. Here's a pandemic that's killed over 40,000 Americans in three months. Their federal government is so useless that not even that can motivate them to work together and build consensus. I don't even know why they bother trying to be a single country these days. Why not just have every state become its own country if the current union is so dysfunctional and shattered that it can't even get its act together when it faces potentially hundreds of thousands of deaths.

 

[Hit the post]

It just makes my jaw drop how fast and how far the bar has fallen. You've got a guy in charge who one day tweets about how he has the ultimate authority over everything...and then can't coordinate anything on any kind of national level. And Americans are by and large totally inured to it to the point where they don't even blink. Somehow they can reconcile MURICA!!! with every state left on its own when something serious happens, and I just can't get that. Here's a pandemic that's killed over 40,000 Americans in three months. Their federal government is so useless that not even that can motivate them to work together and build consensus. I don't even know why they bother trying to be a single country these days. Why not just have every state become its own country if the current union is so dysfunctional and shattered that it can't even get its act together when it faces potentially hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Then you get dumb hicks in THIS city that are acolytes of Orange Man protesting (virus is Fake!).

 

[timw33]

Here's a pandemic that's killed over 40,000 Americans in three months

What's crazier is that the first death was a tad over 7 weeks ago and even if they peak and it starts declining slowly (not even factoring in secondary outbreaks/second waves from prematurely opening) that could easily be 150-200k deaths on an annualized basis.

March 19th: ~1,000 deaths
April 19th: 40,500 deaths

Astounding watching this "open the country" rhetoric.

 

[I am toxic]

I gotta say IAT, that is one of the best posts in this thread or even forum on this topic that I’ve read. Thank you for breaking it down for us and laying out what the numbers could mean.

I have close friends and family in both England and New York City, and its terrifying what can happen when you take this situation lightly. I’m hearing almost daily from friends in England of losing friends and close associates to this virus. I’m heartened that so far in this province the data shows we have brought down the numbers of outdoor activity to 30%. I hope we can stay the course and the people don’t start to get impatient and incite marches and other stupid behaviour for the sake of money and material things. Heck, I’ll live under a bridge if I have to, just don’t want to lose any of my loved ones or friends to this disease.

Thank you.

One thing to keep in mind is that while BC is at 30% of normal overall according to the report, outdoors is probably higher (but easier to SD) while transit and retail is likely lower and of course restaurant much lower. But overall yeah, thankfully seeming to do well.

Keep in mind that BC's chief medical officer dealt with the 2003 SARS outbreak in TO. They don't talk about it much, but it appears she was working behind the scenes coordinating BC"s response much earlier than the politicians were ready to enact anything. I still think BC messed up in several areas (since corrected), but overall I think we are very fortunate in having competent leadership that respects science.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Thank you.

One thing to keep in mind is that while BC is at 30% of normal overall according to the report, outdoors is probably higher (but easier to SD) while transit and retail is likely lower and of course restaurant much lower. But overall yeah, thankfully seeming to do well.

Keep in mind that BC's chief medical officer dealt with the 2003 SARS outbreak in TO. They don't talk about it much, but it appears she was working behind the scenes coordinating BC"s response much earlier than the politicians were ready to enact anything. I still think BC messed up in several areas (since corrected), but overall I think we are very fortunate in having competent leadership that respects science.

How utterly f***ed up is it that in the year 2020 this is something that would be in question anywhere in the developed world.

 

[CherryToke]

Trump supporters are insane. I wonder how many of them believe in the 5g conspiracy and lizard people.