Toronto's high end talent makes them as scary as we were to Tampa last playoffs. I still hold the opinion that they get in and are a lock to do so, but its almost go time. They need to turn it around quickly. Their high end talent says they will, but their lack of depth on defense and goaltending is shining through right now.
NYI are basically the same team as they were last year. Solid, probably a playoff team, but not a contender.
CAR, CBJ, PHI, and FLA are the hard ones. The CBJ aren't as good as their 25 game run implies, but they are also not as bad as they showed at the start of the year. Carolina is kind of the same way, except reversed (and I don't trust their goaltending at all). Philadelphia is probably the most dangerous offensive team of the Metro cluster, but their depth is meh, and goaltending is unproven. Florida has a very potent offense, but a bad defense that bleeds chances. They're starting to play better though, and are the best team of these 4 on talent alone.
NYR has a few high end pieces and a bunch of youth/nothing. They're out of it, but they're still going to be competitive.
MTL and BUF are out of it too. Unless Carey Price goes on an absurd run.
Locks (IMO): WSH, PIT, BOS, TB, TOR
That leaves 3 spots. Both wild cards and Metro 3. Between CBJ, FLA, NYI, CAR, and PHI.
It's going to be a really tight finish. At least one of these teams is going to make a desperate move at the deadline to get a leg up to get in (my gut says it'll be Florida given how much they invested into this season).