The Athletic - 2018/19 NHL Farm system rankings

[jfhabs]

2018 was a pretty average draft, 2017 was viewed as below average and comparable to 2012. 2018 was comparable to 2016, and 2010 but behind 2013 and 2015. Probably above 2014, and 2011, and definitely above 2012.

Imo 2018 was a very deep draft. There were many very interesting prospects available in round 3-4-5... unlike 2017. There were in 2017 to but not as many. 2018 had an elite top 2, but the 3-5 picks were probably not as good as most years.

 

[jfhabs]

Top-2 is strong and comparable to 2016, but 3-5 was very weak. Overall, it seems like a very average draft.

Wouldn't say very weak... but clearly not as good as 1-2 when you compare to other years. 3-5 is just a little under average to average...

 

[LordNeverLose]

Last 5 years, in terms of hype at the time of the draft:
2015
2016
2018
2014
2017

I was a big advocate for the 2017 draft not being too bad, since I really liked both Patrick and Hischier and thought the top 20ish was pretty good, but it definitely had the least hype surrounding it at the time of the draft. People were really shitting on it.

 

[Mrb1p]

Top-2 is strong and comparable to 2016, but 3-5 was very weak. Overall, it seems like a very average draft.

Thats not exactly true.

Zadina, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Bouchard, Smith, Kravtsov, Koktaniemi, Dobson compare really well to any of the other 3 10 picks in the past few years. Hayton was a massive reach and will most likely be a disapointment but the rest of the top 10 or so is really, really strong.

 

[Mrb1p]

Last 5 years, in terms of hype at the time of the draft:
2015
2016
2018
2014
2017

I was a big advocate for the 2017 draft not being too bad, since I really liked both Patrick and Hischier and thought the top 20ish was pretty good, but it definitely had the least hype surrounding it at the time of the draft. People were really ****ting on it.

People do that every year though... the draft is always better next year and was better the year prior, thats mostly due to them not knowing squat about most prospects in this draft.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

People should also occassionally rank the pool+ recent graduates. You get a more accurate measure of how bright a team's future is or isnt

 

[Mrb1p]

People should also occassionally rank the pool+ recent graduates. You get a more accurate measure of how bright a team's future is or isnt

But thats not what this thread is about, its about pool.

CP puts up a top 10 list of u23 assets for each team if youre interested.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

But thats not what this thread is about, its about pool.

CP puts up a top 10 list of u23 assets for each team if youre interested.

I never meant to imply that's what this thread should discuss in any detail. I just think it'd be fun to see more. I'll check out what you mentioned. Thx

 

[Mrb1p]

I never meant to imply that's what this thread should discuss in any detail. I just think it'd be fun to see more. I'll check out what you mentioned. Thx

I kinda agree, a few publications have the u23/u25 assets lists.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Thats not exactly true.

Zadina, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Bouchard, Smith, Kravtsov, Koktaniemi, Dobson compare really well to any of the other 3 10 picks in the past few years. Hayton was a massive reach and will most likely be a disapointment but the rest of the top 10 or so is really, really strong.

I don't know about those players comparing really well to other top-10s. Kotka is among the weaker 3rd overall picks this decade. I like Tkachuk, but again, he is probably one of the weaker 4ths this decade. Like you said, Hayton seemed like a reach and is definitely among the worst 5ths.

But notice how I didn't say 6-15. For the most part, I think that part of the draft is average. Hughes, Zadina and Dobson in particular were excellent value and likely above average with respect to the picks history. There are others I felt were a tad underwhelming as well for their picks history. My argument was just in response to you saying that Dahlin and Svech alone make this an above average draft. In my opinion the weak 3-5 picks drag down the class a touch.

 

[Deficient Mode]

I don't think the list of 3 OA picks this decade is packed with players better than Kotkaniemi reasonably projects to be. Even if he turned into only a 2C (32-62 range leaguewide) that's about where I'd put PLD (for now), Strome, and Galchenyuk. The 4 OA and 5 OA picks are the bigger question mark.

 

[le_sean]

Pleasantly surprised Habs made top 10. Would’ve thought we got around 12-15 range.

I agree, it’s a bit high. I say that mostly because Romanov was a high pick and a complete uncertainty as of today. I’d like to see him to gauge his true potential, which makes a bigger difference for the prospect pool as there is a lack of top defenders and wingers.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I don't think the list of 3 OA picks this decade is packed with players better than Kotkaniemi reasonably projects to be. Even if he turned into only a 2C (32-62 range leaguewide) that's about where I'd put PLD (for now), Strome, and Galchenyuk. The 4 OA and 5 OA picks are the bigger question mark.

I'm talking with respect to them as prospects. If Kotka reaches his potential, that makes him better than most of the 3rd overalls. But strictly speaking about them as prospects I find that most were better than Kotka.

 

[firstemperor]

I don't know about those players comparing really well to other top-10s. Kotka is among the weaker 3rd overall picks this decade. I like Tkachuk, but again, he is probably one of the weaker 4ths this decade. Like you said, Hayton seemed like a reach and is definitely among the worst 5ths.

But notice how I didn't say 6-15. For the most part, I think that part of the draft is average. Hughes, Zadina and Dobson in particular were excellent value and likely above average with respect to the picks history. There are others I felt were a tad underwhelming as well for their picks history. My argument was just in response to you saying that Dahlin and Svech alone make this an above average draft. In my opinion the weak 3-5 picks drag down the class a touch.

Agreed with everything there except the Hughes, Zadina, Dobson point.

Dobson is the one guy I might agree with just because of his raw physical tools. I don't have a great frame of reference for Zadina, but if we're using Halifax alumni as one, I think highly of Zadina (safe pick to be a top 6 winger at the very least IMO), I still liked a guy like Ehlers more in equivalent draft years.

Hughes, I've never been particularly high on (his brother is a different story though, but I do think he has some flaws he needs to address if he wants to be a C at the next level) but I also consider him a relatively safe pick in the top 10, just not sure if he's any better as a pick than an equivalent pick in an average draft class. Pettersson being someone who I was very high on in his draft year and a bit more volatile as a prospect.

 

[Deficient Mode]

I agree, it’s a bit high. I say that mostly because Romanov was a high pick and a complete uncertainty as of today. I’d like to see him to gauge his true potential, which makes a bigger difference for the prospect pool there is a lack of top defenders and wingers.

Yeah, this ranking doesn't really take into account the positional diversity of a team's prospect pool. The Habs lack especially defensemen whose main value comes in combination of transition and offensive play. At some point - probably after they trade Petry - they'll realize this is as big of a shortcoming as their centers.

 

[Mrb1p]

I agree, it’s a bit high. I say that mostly because Romanov was a high pick and a complete uncertainty as of today. I’d like to see him to gauge his true potential, which makes a bigger difference for the prospect pool there is a lack of top defenders and wingers.

I don't think the list of 3 OA picks this decade is packed with players better than Kotkaniemi reasonably projects to be. Even if he turned into only a 2C (32-62 range leaguewide) that's about where I'd put PLD (for now), Strome, and Galchenyuk. The 4 OA and 5 OA picks are the bigger question mark.

I don't know about those players comparing really well to other top-10s. Kotka is among the weaker 3rd overall picks this decade. I like Tkachuk, but again, he is probably one of the weaker 4ths this decade. Like you said, Hayton seemed like a reach and is definitely among the worst 5ths.

But notice how I didn't say 6-15. For the most part, I think that part of the draft is average. Hughes, Zadina and Dobson in particular were excellent value and likely above average with respect to the picks history. There are others I felt were a tad underwhelming as well for their picks history. My argument was just in response to you saying that Dahlin and Svech alone make this an above average draft. In my opinion the weak 3-5 picks drag down the class a touch.

Kotkaniemi is a weaker 3rd overall? What do you expect him to be? A 4th liner?

2009: Duchene, in hindsight he was a good 3rd overall, but his play in the CHL wasnt thay good. Weaker.
2010: Gudbranson, a depth D 20 points in 43 games in the CHL, weaker.
2011: Huberdeau, top 6 winger, good CHL numbers on a stacked team, about even but a winger.
2012: Galchenyuk, injured season, bad development, but overall Id say hes a stronger pick.
2013: Drouin, stronger pick if you ignore the bad attitude signs.
2014: Draisaitl, tough one. Id like to aay Kotkaniemi tracks similarly to Drai when looking at fin in the WHL comparables but Im fine with saying Draisaitl is better.
2015: Strome, stronger statistically but never really developped and had serious deawbacks (skating, playing on a stacked team)
2016: PLD, weaker.
2017: Heiskanen, weaker Liiga season, similar U18

Id rank them this way
Drouin
Galchenyuk
Draisaitl
Strome
Kotkaniemi
Heiskanen
Huberdeau
PLD
Duchene
Gudbranson

 

[Mrb1p]

Yeah, this ranking doesn't really take into account the positional diversity of a team's prospect pool. The Habs lack especially defensemen whose main value comes in combination of transition and offensive play. At some point - probably after they trade Petry - they'll realize this is as big of a shortcoming as their centers.

It doesnt really matter. If you have ten first line center to trade away, youre going to be able to build a team. Look at CBJ, they had Johansen, Wennberg, Jenner down the pipeline, they had three future top 6 Cs and they realized this was the best currency, they traded away Johansen and got an ever better player, Jones.

Now theyre set with Jones, Wennberg, PLD and Jenner.

Same happened to Nashville but the other way around.

Im fine with a team putting all their eggs in the C or D basket.

Where you dont put your eggs is in the winger one or goalie one, except if its an exceptional one like Laine. Rarely, if ever will you see a 1C or 1D traded for a 1W.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Drouin
Galchenyuk
Draisaitl
Strome
Kotkaniemi
Heiskanen
Huberdeau
PLD
Duchene
Gudbranson

If you looked at my post, you would have seen that I was just talking about them as prospects. He is a weaker 3rd overall prospect for sure. The only players on that list that I prefer Kotka over, again strictly speaking about them as prospects, would be Gudbranson, Duchene. Then he is pretty even with PLD for me.

 

[Mrb1p]

If you looked at my post, you would have seen that I was just talking about them as prospects. He is a weaker 3rd overall prospect for sure. The only players on that list that I prefer Kotka over, again strictly speaking about them as prospects, would be Gudbranson, Duchene. Then he is pretty even with PLD for me.

How is Heiskanen a better prospect when Kotkaniemi had the significantly better season? How is Huberdeau a better prospect when Kotkaniemi had a better season? Do you have any idea of cross league comparisons? Take guys like Heponiemi, Nyman, Palmu and look at their liiga and chl production, its pretty evident Kotkaniemi would rank in the upper ranks here. Which means impressive production.

 

[CodeE]

People saying 2017 > 2018 are giving the 2017 draft class the added benefit of having that D+1 season to raise their prestige. A lot of guys from 2017 had very strong D+1 seasons, especially at the center position: even ignoring the top 2: Pettersson, Mittelstadt, Vilardi, Necas, Thomas, Chytil, Frost - there's no way 2018 competes with that. Seeing as center is the most important position in hockey, and you get 9 guys who look to be at the very least 2Cs, that's nothing to sneeze at.

2018 draftees still have their D+1 seasons to play, but that depth at winger + defense looks very intimidating, especially at defense.

 

[greasysnapper]

Kotkaniemi is a weaker 3rd overall? What do you expect him to be? A 4th liner?

2009: Duchene, in hindsight he was a good 3rd overall, but his play in the CHL wasnt thay good. Weaker.
2010: Gudbranson, a depth D 20 points in 43 games in the CHL, weaker.
2011: Huberdeau, top 6 winger, good CHL numbers on a stacked team, about even but a winger.
2012: Galchenyuk, injured season, bad development, but overall Id say hes a stronger pick.
2013: Drouin, stronger pick if you ignore the bad attitude signs.
2014: Draisaitl, tough one. Id like to aay Kotkaniemi tracks similarly to Drai when looking at fin in the WHL comparables but Im fine with saying Draisaitl is better.
2015: Strome, stronger statistically but never really developped and had serious deawbacks (skating, playing on a stacked team)
2016: PLD, weaker.
2017: Heiskanen, weaker Liiga season, similar U18

Id rank them this way
Drouin
Galchenyuk
Draisaitl
Strome
Kotkaniemi
Heiskanen
Huberdeau
PLD
Duchene
Gudbranson

Not even judging by the eye test, and breaking down those picks by any commonly used nhle metric (use your favourite if you like) he by far ranks as the worst forward taken #3.

Drouin - 46
Galchenyuk - Injured, but d-1 season 33
Draisaitl - 41
Strome - 48
Kotkaniemi - 18
Heiskanen - 10
Huberdeau - 34
PLD - 34
Duchene - 35
Gudbranson - 14

"2014: Draisaitl, tough one. Id like to aay Kotkaniemi tracks similarly to Drai when looking at fin in the WHL comparables but Im fine with saying Draisaitl is better."

What. This is how I know you have no idea what you're talking about. Who are some comparable Fins from the WHL? HMMMM? The only Fin from the WHL in the last 10 years to play in the NHL is Honka. And I don't know how you can compare a defenseman to a forward.

 

[Mrb1p]

Not even judging by the eye test, and breaking down those picks by any commonly used nhle metric (use your favourite if you like) he by far ranks as the worst forward taken #3.

Drouin - 46
Galchenyuk - Injured, but d-1 season 33
Draisaitl - 41
Strome - 48
Kotkaniemi - 18
Heiskanen - 10
Huberdeau - 34
PLD - 34
Duchene - 35
Gudbranson - 14

"2014: Draisaitl, tough one. Id like to aay Kotkaniemi tracks similarly to Drai when looking at fin in the WHL comparables but Im fine with saying Draisaitl is better."

What. This is how I know you have no idea what you're talking about. Who are some comparable Fins from the WHL? HMMMM? The only Fin from the WHL in the last 10 years to play in the NHL is Honka. And I don't know how you can compare a defenseman to a forward.

Great, im getting called out by a dude that uses NHLe

Edit: Id like to point out other great NHLe player

Patrick Laine at 26

 

[greasysnapper]

Great, im getting called out by a dude that uses NHLe

I don't swear by it or use it regularly. I'll look at it like most people. I literally said "Not even judging by the eye test, and breaking down those picks by any commonly used nhle metric" since you're only talking about stats. I'm trying to look at this in a quantifiable way specifically for you.

I like how you glossed over the fact that you're just pulling opinions (comparable Fins in the WHL) out of your butt lol.

 

[Mrb1p]

I don't swear by it or use it regularly. I'll look at it like most people. I literally said "Not even judging by the eye test, and breaking down those picks by any commonly used nhle metric" since you're only talking about stats. I'm trying to look at this in a quantifiable way specifically for you.

I like how you glossed over the fact that you're just pulling opinions (comparable Fins in the WHL) out of your butt lol.

I listed CHL finns just above.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Not even judging by the eye test, and breaking down those picks by any commonly used nhle metric (use your favourite if you like) he by far ranks as the worst forward taken #3.

Drouin - 46
Galchenyuk - Injured, but d-1 season 33
Draisaitl - 41
Strome - 48
Kotkaniemi - 18
Heiskanen - 10
Huberdeau - 34
PLD - 34
Duchene - 35
Gudbranson - 14

"2014: Draisaitl, tough one. Id like to aay Kotkaniemi tracks similarly to Drai when looking at fin in the WHL comparables but Im fine with saying Draisaitl is better."

What. This is how I know you have no idea what you're talking about. Who are some comparable Fins from the WHL? HMMMM? The only Fin from the WHL in the last 10 years to play in the NHL is Honka. And I don't know how you can compare a defenseman to a forward.

Corsica rates 3 OA forward picks in the following order by draft year adjusted p/gp
Drouin - 0.29
Strome - 0.27
Draisaitl - 0.24
Dubois - 0.2
Kotkaniemi - 0.22

Kotkaniemi was younger than all of them except PLD relative to their draft year by at least 3 months, and compared to the rest of them, he barely got any power play deployment or points to bump up his totals. I'm pretty sure this model doesn't adjust for either of those things. Overall, it paints a far rosier picture of his draft year production.