The Athletic - 2018/19 NHL Farm system rankings

[93LEAFS]

The only list I see from Bob where he polled scouts has Kotka at #10. Is there another list I'm missing?

https://www.tsn.ca/the-big-four-solidify-spots-in-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1066345

Here are his final rankings. Kotkaniemi was 5th.

https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Here are his final rankings. Kotkaniemi was 5th.

https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

Awesome, thanks.

 

[Deficient Mode]

2018 NHL Draft Rankings

17 lists......none have Kotk top 3. Only 2 have him top 5. 8 have him top 10.

So 8 have him 4-10
And 9 have him 11+

Montreal took who they thought would be the best C.

Look at the more recent lists after the end of April. Those tend to have him significantly higher. Also shows that he was a late riser and his consensus position relative to his draft class didn't have time to stabilize or really gain wide acceptance.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Yeah I dont remember any serious talk at all about this. About similar as Svechnikov falling to 2 and Zadina going to Carolina.

I remember this as Garth Snow refusing to reveal who we was drafting at 1, and there were rumors he was going to take Duchene (possibly leaked by his people). I think Garth wanted to create a little chaos, as part of some clever gambit. Tavares after he was picked I think said he had no idea he was being taken 1 overall.

Duchene was the consensus 3 and Tavares the consensus 1, but there was uncertainty due to Garth being Garth.

 

[CREW99AW]

I remember this as Garth Snow refusing to reveal who we was drafting at 1, and there were rumors he was going to take Duchene (possibly leaked by his people). I think Garth wanted to create a little chaos, as part of some clever gambit. Tavares after he was picked I think said he had no idea he was being taken 1 overall.

Duchene was the consensus 3 and Tavares the consensus 1, but there was uncertainty due to Garth being Garth.

The Canadian media tried spinning Duchene as a legitimate #1 pick,hoping Toronto could trade for the #2 pick if the isles were dumb enough to take Duchene #1.
Isles,getting very little media attention milked that drama.
Botta later wrote that it was always Tavares for the isles.

 

[Mrb1p]

Look at the more recent lists after the end of April. Those tend to have him significantly higher. Also shows that he was a late riser and his consensus position relative to his draft class didn't have time to stabilize or really gain wide acceptance.

I didnt hear people say the same as Heiskanen who had a similar ranking all year, I wonder why.

 

[pezcore]

Los Angeles at 10

 

[Mrb1p]

LA at ten, kupari as high end.

Clague, Thomas and JAD as legit.

 

[joe dirte]

OP updated.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

I don't understand how for example Heiskanen and Kupari are in the same tier of prospects. There's something silly about his rankings. Many similar cases i don't get.

 

[LordNeverLose]

LA at ten, kupari as high end.

Clague, Thomas and JAD as legit.

Vilardi?

 

[Deficient Mode]

Vilardi?

Vilardi was also high end, and obviously #1.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

He's definitely higher on Kupari than most people I've seen.

Glad he's got a bead on JAD though, low-key Justin Williams in the making.

Was not aware Brickley was so largely praised either I guess, I knew he was the 'big fish', and he looked really good in his NHL game..but something's gotta give on the LA blueline over those depth spots. Someone moving? Whole organization is one big LHD fest.

Surprised to see Prokhorkin and Kubalik mentioned at all.

 

[Frk It]

Someone moving? Whole organization is one big LHD fest.

Give me Clague.

 

[GoldiFox]

I don't understand how for example Heiskanen and Kupari are in the same tier of prospects. There's something silly about his rankings. Many similar cases i don't get.

How much more straight-forward could it be? There is nothing mystical about the tiers, Pronman literally spells it out:

• Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.
• High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.
• Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.

He labels Kupari and Heiskanen both as "High-end prospects". That doesn't mean they are equal value or equal individual player ranking, it means that both players are:

High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.

You can say "But Heiskanen is actually an elite prospect who:"

Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.

Or you can say: "But Kupari is not High-end, he is actually a Very good prospect who:

Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.

But it is pointless to start making weird equivalencies or nit-picking within tiers. A statement as simple as "Of course, as we all know, Defense and Centers are more important than Wingers so within these tiers be sure that Heiskanen > Kupari" but that would just be stating the obvious.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I think the tiering kind of falls apart with goalies FWIW but it's pretty good. There should be two scores really.

1. Projection
2. Uncertainty surrounding projection

Which is what Dobberprospects, and I think Hockeysfuture (RIP) used to do IRC.

 

[TwoPiece]

I think the tiering kind of falls apart with goalies FWIW but it's pretty good. There should be two scores really.

1. Projection
2. Uncertainty surrounding projection

Which is what Dobberprospects, and I think Hockeysfuture (RIP) used to do IRC.

I did appreciate the letter grade attributed to "how likely" the player was to reach their numbered peak.

 

[Deam78]

The Canadian media tried spinning Duchene as a legitimate #1 pick,hoping Toronto could trade for the #2 pick if the isles were dumb enough to take Duchene #1.
Isles,getting very little media attention milked that drama.
Botta later wrote that it was always Tavares for the isles.

Yeah it was Brian Burke who said he thought the Islanders would draft Duchene.

 

[JohnLennon]

I don't understand how for example Heiskanen and Kupari are in the same tier of prospects. There's something silly about his rankings. Many similar cases i don't get.

He's mentioned it many times, but it's possible you're not a subscriber so I'll explain: Just because two players are in the same tier, it does not mean they are equivalent prospects in value or upside. He said there are obviously levels within the tier, where some prospects are near the top of that specific tier, and some are at the bottom of the tier. He's also mentioned that the bottom of one tier and top of another are not super far off.

A lot of people get caught up by headlines, as you can see fans of specific teams come in to complain about their rankings, but few people read the actual article to understand the context behind the rankings, which is really the value in Corey's work. I understand people not wanting to subscribe to The Athletic, but it's very clear that some are in here to complain without having read a word of the article, which is kind of pointless.

Just noticed, but @SvechniCanesCup2019 explained it much better than I did.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

He's mentioned it many times, but it's possible you're not a subscriber so I'll explain: Just because two players are in the same tier, it does not mean they are equivalent prospects in value or upside. He said there are obviously levels within the tier, where some prospects are near the top of that specific tier, and some are at the bottom of the tier. He's also mentioned that the bottom of one tier and top of another are not super far off.

A lot of people get caught up by headlines, as you can see fans of specific teams come in to complain about their rankings, but few people read the actual article to understand the context behind the rankings, which is really the value in Corey's work. I understand people not wanting to subscribe to The Athletic, but it's very clear that some are in here to complain without having read a word of the article, which is kind of pointless.

Nah, i subscribe. I'd just missed the explanation. It makes sense now. Thanks.

 

[JohnLennon]

Really interesting to read about Kupari and Brickley specifically. It seems as if Pronman is a little higher than most on them. I intend to keep an eye on Brickley this season, especially if he says he expects him to make the big club out of camp.

Obviously Vilardi is the biggest reason LA is at #10, and the main reason he's not considered an elite prospect (despite Pronman saying that he's one of better players outside the NHL) is his below-average skating. If Vilardi was an elite prospect, I think we see LA higher than 10. As mentioned, Vilardi's health is of paramount importance at this stage of his development because he's likely to take another big step in his progression this year in playing on the NHL roster, and he's had health issues in the past.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Really interesting to read about Kupari and Brickley specifically. It seems as if Pronman is a little higher than most on them. I intend to keep an eye on Brickley this season, especially if he says he expects him to make the big club out of camp.

Obviously Vilardi is the biggest reason LA is at #10, and the main reason he's not considered an elite prospect (despite Pronman saying that he's one of better players outside the NHL) is his below-average skating. If Vilardi was an elite prospect, I think we see LA higher than 10. As mentioned, Vilardi's health is of paramount importance at this stage of his development because he's likely to take another big step in his progression this year in playing on the NHL roster, and he's had health issues in the past.

He seems really high on Clague, too. My criticisms of him nonwithstanding, he seems like a forgotten prospect outside of LA.

 

[JohnLennon]

He seems really high on Clague, too. My criticisms of him nonwithstanding, he seems like a forgotten prospect outside of LA.

Yeah, literally saying that Clague is going to be a lock on any NHL team's blueline once he breaks into the league. Guess he's really a fan of that offensive upside, despite the size and defensive play. If he can shore up his defensive play more, he's very well-suited to be an effective defender in today's NHL, what with the combination of smarts, speed, and vision.

 

[schnapshot]

Florida at 9

Habs in the top 8, this will make so many people mad lol

 

[joe dirte]

Florida at 9

Habs in the top 8, this will make so many people mad lol

Lol. Why? They'll need a good system for a few years to pull them out of the gutter. Why would anyone be angry? They're a bottom dweller. They should be acquiring prospects.

And again. It's one scouts opinion.