The almost 3/4 of the season Hart talk.

[SlickHands]

Ovie's years winning the Hart he finished 1, 2, and 3 in scoring and won the Richard each year. You simply don't win the Hart unless you're top 5 in scoring (or dominating a non-forward position). Matthews would need to win the Richard AND close the gap between him and the top 3. I don't see it happening.

For me, Draisaitl is eliminated by the McDavid factor. There's still an intense "you're only doing it because of McDavid" bias, and you can't give it to McDavid when he's being outscored by a teammate. Pastrnak has a chance, but Marchand and Bergeron are both having strong years. The two guys impressing me the most are Panarin and MacKinnon. Their spots in the scoring race and the strength of their stats relative to their teammates is just too hard to ignore.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I agree if Toronto doesn't make the playoffs he won't be a finalist. But I think what I was responding to was the idea that he would be a nominee over Pastrnak if he scores 55 goals and wins the Rocket. I am saying if Pastrnak outscores him by what currently projects to be over 15 points and gets a similar goal total to him Pasta will be there over him.

I think MacKinnon is a lock. I think at this point Draisaitl will probably be nominated as well. So who gets the third spot? At this rate probably Pastrnak. Maybe Panarin if they decide to let a non-playoff guy get in.

I know you said point totals are also a factor. However if they had someone like Panarin as a finalist despite the Rangers not making the playoffs and yes I know his point totals right now is more than Matthews since they are 76 points vs 69 points. If Matthews gets at least 55 goals or more that wouldn't make him a finalist from a non playoff team if Toronto missed? I know that either one would not win the Hart, I'm just speculating on who would be a more deserving finalist from a non playoff team.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Saddened to see Justin Abdelkader fell out of the conversation.

 

[alg363636]

I know you said point totals are also a factor. However if they had someone like Panarin as a finalist despite the Rangers not making the playoffs and yes I know his point totals right now is more than Matthews since they are 76 points vs 69 points. If Matthews gets at least 55 goals or more that wouldn't make him a finalist from a non playoff team if Toronto missed? I know that either one would not win the Hart, I'm just speculating on who would be a more deserving finalist from a non playoff team.

Okay I see so you would be mad if a there was a non-playoff finalist. That's fair.

So what scenario would Matthews get a nomination? Colorado, Boston and Edmonton are most likely making the playoffs. So who of MacK/Drai/Pasta would he be nominated over?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Okay I see so you would be mad if a there was a non-playoff finalist. That's fair.

So what scenario would Matthews get a nomination? Colorado, Boston and Edmonton are most likely making the playoffs. So who of MacK/Drai/Pasta would he be nominated over?

No I wouldn't be mad. I just wonder besides their point total what reason would Panarin have to be a finalist over Matthews, if Toronto missed the playoffs? That's assuming the voters nominate anyone from a team who misses the playoffs.

 

[alg363636]

No I wouldn't be mad. I just wonder besides their point total what reason would Panarin have to be a finalist over Matthews, if Toronto missed the playoffs? That's assuming the voters nominate anyone from a team who misses the playoffs.

The rationale would likely be that he would have a higher point total and has a worse team with worse players around him therefore making his point total more impressive

 

[a mangy Meowth]

He's not going to win it-nor should he-but CBJ goalie Merzlikins deserves a lot of top 5 votes if he continues his level of play for the remainder of the season.

He certainly would not deserve votes over MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Panarin, Eichel, John Carlson, and I'd also vote for Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck before him. I could probably think of a few more as well. You can't play half a starter's season and be MVP of the league, that's just not how it works.

 

[Aceboogie]

Good thing this is a Hart thread and not a Calder one..................................................................................btw Makar>Hughes

Why should Mackinnon be getting this much consideration for Hart if hes playing with such an elite teammate. Hes obviously getting a major boost

 

[Aceboogie]

Panarin, MacKinnon, Matthews would be my top 3. Hm to Eichel

Matthews might not even be the best player on his team

Second coming of Taylor Hall. Great player, but big let down considering the hype he had at the draft

 

[LeafsNation75]

Matthews might not even be the best player on his team

Speaking as a Leafs fan I can confidently say Matthews is the best player on their team.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Matthews might not even be the best player on his team

Second coming of Taylor Hall. Great player, but big let down considering the hype he had at the draft

Matthews may be the 2nd coming of Hall in the sense that he could win the Hart trophy, but that's about it

 

[LeafsNation75]

Matthews may be the 2nd coming of Hall in the sense that he could win the Hart trophy, but that's about it

Unlike Hall at least Matthews has had two 40 goal seasons.

Yes I know Hall had 39 goals when he won the Hart Trophy in 2017, however technically it's still not 40 goals and that's still the only season he's had at least 30 goals.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

He certainly would not deserve votes over MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Panarin, Eichel, John Carlson, and I'd also vote for Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck before him. I could probably think of a few more as well. You can't play half a starter's season and be MVP of the league, that's just not how it works.

I said he wouldn't win and wouldn't deserve to. Voting for Vasilevskiy or Hellebucyk over him is laughable. If you toss out his first NHL game when he gave up 7 goals, his GAA is 1.98 and save percentage is .935. The other two don't even belong in the conversation of who has been most valuable to his team.

 

[ICanMotteBelieveIt]

Panarin.

All these other players have star players helping them, who does Panarin have...Jesper Fast?

Don't forget about Ryan Strome! LMAO.

 

[PALE PWNR]

He's been doing great, .941 SV% and a 1.65 GAA at home this season. 14-2-2 at home. We finally have a goalie.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

I don't see any realistic path for Matthews to the Hart tbh.

He'd have to outscore and outpoint OV/Pasta. Massively out goal score Drai/Panarin, and then have Panarin miss the playoffs, then there's still Mackinnon who I have no idea how Matthews gets ahead of barring an injury to Nate or a massive hot streak by Matthews.

He's 11 points behind Nate, 12 behind Pasta, and 21 behind Drai. I just don't see it.

 

[Satire]

MacK is current frontrunner for sure. McDavid was right up there with him before he went down to injury. So as I see it 1 of 3 things happens.

1) Oilers don't make playoffs and it goes to MacK.
2) Oilers make playoffs because they stayed afloat during this stretch thanks to the efforts of Drai. Drai wins.
3) Oilers make playoffs because McDavid comes back and they go on a tear. McDavid wins it

I don't think anyone else is too close to touching any of those 3 right now. There are some who could make a huge argument down the last quarter stretch here.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Hockey is a strange sport when it comes to award nominations, it's more about narrative and which teams are "carried" in to the playoffs. Like Hall winning over Mackinnon for example.

Basically punished if you're on a great team lol

Not really. There have been 14 hart winners post lockout. 1 was obviously Hall, 1 was a goalie. So let's look at the other 12 skaters and you'll see a common theme.

Average pt finish: 1.42 (9/12 finished 1st, all 12 finished top 3). Hall finished 6th.

Average seed in conference: 3.25 (7/12 finished top 3, all 12 finished top 5). Devils finished 8th.

The 4 times the ross winner didn't win the Hart (excluding the Price year)

09: OV was 2nd in pts (3pts behind Malkin). But was 1st in PPG, goals and GPG. Only 50 goal scorer in the league, won the rocket by 10 goals.

11: Perry was 3rd in pts (6pts behind D Sedin). But was 1st in goals and GPG, only 50 goal scorer in the league, won rocket over peak Stamkos.

13: OV was 3rd in pts (4pts behind MSL & 1 behind Stamkos, both who missed the playoffs). But was 1st in goals and GPG, only 30 goal scorer in the league.

18: Hall was 6th in pts (15pts behind McDavid, 9 behind Giroux highest scoring playoff player). 9th in goals, 7th in GPG, 7th in PPG.

There's no "narrative" to the Hart. Make the playoffs and finish 1st in pts and you win, unless someone is close enough in pts and gets a big rocket win. The Hall win was clearly an anomaly and the numbers are right there to prove it.

 

[Canovin]

Unlike Hall at least Matthews has had two 40 goal seasons.

Yes I know Hall had 39 goals when he won the Hart Trophy in 2017, however technically it's still not 40 goals and that's still the only season he's had at least 30 goals.

93 points is still better than 73 points

 

[LeafsNation75]

93 points is still better than 73 points

Matthews is well on his way to over 90 points this season since he's on pace for at least 100. So you won't be able to make comments like that anymore.

 

[Canovin]

Matthews is well on his way to over 90 points this season since he's on pace for at least 100. So you won't be able to make comments like that anymore.

He's on pace for 97. Since this is Matthews we are talking. On pace is not a sure thing with his injury history

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I said he wouldn't win and wouldn't deserve to. Voting for Vasilevskiy or Hellebucyk over him is laughable. If you toss out his first NHL game when he gave up 7 goals, his GAA is 1.98 and save percentage is .935. The other two don't even belong in the conversation of who has been most valuable to his team.

Lol they sustained very good stats over far more games. Sorry boss you're being a homer. Tampa sucked ass at the start when Vasilevskiy was doing poorly. Now look where they are. You guys have a Norris level D in Jones and a guy who is like barely a step down in Werenski. And then Savard. And Murray. etc. etc. CBJ defense is top 10ish imo, could be border top 5 just because Jones is such a freaking monster. Winnipeg's defense is kind of a joke this season if you haven't noticed, as well. Elvis is f***ing awesome, I watched him nearly shut my team's elite elite offense out of the game entirely, so I hope you won't take this as me being a hater.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He's on pace for 97. Since this is Matthews we are talking. On pace is not a sure thing with his injury history

He did play all 82 games in his rookie season and so far he's played every game this season.

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

That's the great irony of the Hart trophy: poor teammates basically disqualifies you. Panarin and Eichel have precisely 0% chance of winning it.

Who did Taylor Hall have on his team when he won?

 

[Crabapple]

MacK is current frontrunner for sure. McDavid was right up there with him before he went down to injury. So as I see it 1 of 3 things happens.

1) Oilers don't make playoffs and it goes to MacK.
2) Oilers make playoffs because they stayed afloat during this stretch thanks to the efforts of Drai. Drai wins.
3) Oilers make playoffs because McDavid comes back and they go on a tear. McDavid wins it

I don't think anyone else is too close to touching any of those 3 right now. There are some who could make a huge argument down the last quarter stretch here.

This is it folks. #3 is the least likely IMO