Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by daver, Feb 14, 2020 at 5:31 AM.
Surprised Eichel is mentioned as being considered so many times here. He shouldn’t be in the discussion.
Hard to say Pastrnak isn't close when he's leading the league in goals and second in points while leading his team to first in the NHL at the moment. MacKinnon and Draisatl might be the favourites right now but Pasta is every bit as deserving.
Drai shouldn't even be in the conversation:
He was -26 in December.
“Obviously I know I’ve been pretty (expletive) lately. Sorry about my words, there…”
Oilers' Draisaitl knows offence alone doesn't equal success in standings - Sportsnet.ca
Why? I can't think of another team that relies so much on a single player to drive their offense. To me, the clear top three this year are Eichel, Panarin, and MacKinnon.
Mainly cause non-playoff teams don't get a Hart winner.
Hischier, Palmieri, Butcher, Vatanen. Other role players did well like Moore, Wood, and Severson. They're not a pretty team on paper at all, but they played well enough as a team to have league-average defense, the 7th best PK, and average goaltending. Hall provided a lot of the offense, but they weren't a complete dumpster fire without him. And there are other factors outside the Devils: the Panthers (who actually had 2 more ROW than the Devils) missed that last playoff spot by 1 pt; Luongo had a .929 Sv% that season, but he had a bunch of injuries, and would have gotten the Panthers into that last playoff spot if he played even 1-2 more games. It was also slightly easier to make the playoffs that season than this season, where that same WC spot team is on pace for 100-101 pts instead of 97.
McDavid had the highest Point Share of any skater that year, but received only 16.46% of the Hart trophy votes because the Oilers didn't make the playoffs. That's why I think it's nonsense that making the playoffs should be a qualification for the voting...a 1 pt change in the standings and all of a sudden Hall not only wouldn't win, he probably wouldn't have even finished in the top-3. The Devils also won 1 playoff game and were done, which is another problem with the voting method: if playoffs = value, then the logical conclusion is Stanley Cup = value, which would mean players on the remaining 30 teams who didn't win it would have contributed "no value" during the regular season.
Panarin is just doing a little more for the Rangers this year than Hall did for Devils that year. His Point Score pace is higher, the Rangers shot rates with/without Panarin are much more dramatic, and he has a 5v5 Individual Points Percentage of 80.65 whereas Hall had 70.77. He's doing it 5v5 too, Panarin only has 18 PP pts this season.
Toss Matthews a cookie, he might be able ot get 90 points by the end of the season. Draisaitl will get 90 point s*checks note* nevermind, hes already there
Matthews is sitting on a team that has the most points in the NHL. Still only has 69 points. This is a team whos had healthy and well-performing Tavares/Marner/Nylander and now Barrie, and they are sitting 12 in the league. Hell, if Marner had played 58 games, hed have more points than Matthews
Matthews is having a rather meh season for what hes supposed to be doing
Even if you argue his point totals are "meh", points are not always the whole story. The Oilers get caved defensively when Draisaitl is on the ice. Even so, Matthews has 14 secondary assists, Draisaitl has 25. Matthews averaging 0.71 goals per game is a ridiculous pace.
Draisaitl 5v5 With/Without
Matthews 5v5 With/Without
Draisaitl is not as good defensively and can be categorized as "bad" defensively. Doesnt make up for 21 point difference (could end up being 35-40 point difference by end of the year). At most, the difference a good defensive player and bad one is 15 points- which is being very generous for defensive players
Even the people who makes this charts will tell you how limited and flawed defensive metrics are. The metrics are in their infancy and better models come out each year- plus they are still limited to less than perfect data
Judging players only by points is probably the most flawed of all. Scoring points has a higher impact on winning games than anything else, but it's not the only way to contribute. Other issues with raw points totals are TOI, teammates, luck, no separation between 5v5/5v4 or primary/secondary or between goals/assists.
Defense is limiting shots and scoring chances. Yeah, it's hard (maybe impossible) to create a perfect defense rating like EA sports, but if your team is getting absolutely plastered with shots whenever a certain player is on the ice, that's pretty meaningful. But you're right that defense can only make up for so much lack of offense, I'm just pointing out that Matthews may be having a better season than it appears.
But does he have something to prove?
Nice thread by the way.
41 Goals through 58 games is not a meh season and a reply like yours only shows no matter what Matthews done others will always find some way to bring him down.
Neither McDavid nor Draisaitl should be in contention. Pastrnak too.
It should be Panarin or MacKinnon.
If I had a vote, Pasta would be my #1 right now.
The award is for MVP. Not MVP with the worst linemates.
Gotta be Drai. He’s proven he can be a force on the ice without McDavid. Pasta has two top 20 players as linemates as well.
Matthews shouldn’t even be in the conversation. Not even the best player on his team this year.
great goal scoring =/ MVP
Matthews is a poor two way player as well.
Being 1/3 of the best line in hockey makes you more valuable? What Panarin is doing is astonishing. Remove him from the Rangers, and it's a much bigger drop than removing Pastrnak from the Bruins.
His defensive game has improved this season and even more since Sheldon Keefe became the Leafs coach.
that’s good. Could be a hell of a player if he decides to dedicate himself fully.
well he already is lol. He’d just be that much better.
Sort of like McDavid the year Hall won?
MacK has the best blend of raw stats, resume, team being really good and more than enough “he’s definitely driving the bus by far on this team” shine.
He may not be #1 in any of those categories but he’s definitely close the top in all of them and I think that will make him a safe choice - assuming the Avs and him keep up their current paces.
A one-way forward shouldn't be in the conversation, there's more to the game than just putting up points...especially a guy who was -26 in December alone.
Panarin / MacKinnon / Pastrnak
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