The all-purpose: Alexander Wennberg thread

[KJ Dangler]

Jackets are 28th in league in scoring by centers . That’s a bad recipie for substained success , especially in the playoffs

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

If you do the math 11 pts in 19 games projects to 47/48 points per 82 games. About a .57 ppg average. For $5mm? Not too bad.

Now why’d you have to go and do the math?

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Jackets are 28th in league in scoring by centers . That’s a bad recipie for substained success , especially in the playoffs

Makes sense. Dubois' been the only center producing consistently.

Surprisingly, Dubinsky has 6 points through 9 games. Hopefully he can keep it up along with Wennberg's improvement in his play of late.

 

[Viqsi]

Jackets are 28th in league in scoring by centers . That’s a bad recipie for substained success , especially in the playoffs

Is that among players actually playing at the center position? I haven't been able to find a site that summarizes such things nicely, but there's lots of guys out there listed as Cs that aren't actually playing there.

(Also, it's worth noting that we're #4 in the NHL in goals for, so we're clearly coming out ahead somewhere...)

 

[SuperGenius]

Is that among players actually playing at the center position? I haven't been able to find a site that summarizes such things nicely, but there's lots of guys out there listed as Cs that aren't actually playing there.

I imagine the primary source is his own negativity.

 

[major major]

I was saying this all summer - it required extremely pessimistic assumptions to think the Jackets were going to be a low-scoring team. You had to think the epic droughts so many players experienced last year were the norm, and the rest of their careers were outside of it.

Right now the Jackets have more players at or above .5ppg than any other team. It's 4 D and every top 9F except Jenner, who is one point shy. Most teams aren't even close to that.

The overall scoring is a little higher than I expected, and I could see it dropping some. But the pace is not far off from what you'd get just by extrapolating from players' past production and making small corrections for age. The Bread Man poster was hardly alone on missing the boat on this one.

 

[rjgrp]

But Wennberg has made some plays in the past week. That should be acknowledged. Let's see how he continues.

Totally agree - I believe in redemption but don't think 2 games so far constitute that.

 

[EspenK]

I was saying this all summer - it required extremely pessimistic assumptions to think the Jackets were going to be a low-scoring team. You had to think the epic droughts so many players experienced last year were the norm, and the rest of their careers were outside of it.

Right now the Jackets have more players at or above .5ppg than any other team. It's 4 D and every top 9F except Jenner, who is one point shy. Most teams aren't even close to that.

The overall scoring is a little higher than I expected, and I could see it dropping some. But the pace is not far off from what you'd get just by extrapolating from players' past production and making small corrections for age. The Bread Man poster was hardly alone on missing the boat on this one.

A quick perusal of shooting percentages indicate guys way above their career averages. Panarin is below his. I expect a regression for most with Bread improving.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

NHL Player Ratings, NHL Player Rankings Source: Corsica Hockey-analytics site

Wennberg has a ranking of 392 overall and 107 among centers. 772 players were rated which comes out to 25 per team, so some minor league NHL contracted players, I assume, were included.

 

[MoeBartoli]

NHL Player Ratings, NHL Player Rankings Source: Corsica Hockey-analytics site

Wennberg has a ranking of 392 overall and 107 among centers. 772 players were rated which comes out to 25 per team, so some minor league NHL contracted players, I assume, were included.

Like I said, that's right in the range for a 3C.......especially when you pull out some guys listed as C who are actually playing W.

 

[EspenK]

Like I said, that's right in the range for a 3C.......especially when you pull out some guys listed as C who are actually playing W.

If I'm doing the math right 3C's would rank 63-93. Looks to me like Wennberg would be a lower ranked 3C if there are up to 24 guys listed as C's who are really wings or aren't full time NHLers. Not impressive.

That being said Jackets are winning and have one of the best records in the league. If (when?) they fall apart I'll be more concerned with Wennberg's stats.

 

[Viqsi]

If I'm doing the math right 3C's would rank 63-93. Looks to me like Wennberg would be a lower ranked 3C if there are up to 24 guys listed as C's who are really wings or aren't full time NHLers. Not impressive.

That being said Jackets are winning and have one of the best records in the league. If (when?) they fall apart I'll be more concerned with Wennberg's stats.

I suspect there's a whole heck of a lot more than 24 - we've got two on our roster alone (Dubinsky and whichever of Sedlak or Nash is getting shoved to the wing) - but not all of them are going to be ahead of Wennberg. Tough to estimate.

 

[major major]

A simple work-around to the false-center problem is to just gauge his value compared to other forwards. Wennberg's corsica rating is on par with wingers in the 60s, so combine his center rank with a couple in the mid 60s, and you get a 230-something rank, which is smack dab in the middle of the third liner range (186-279).

That doesn't seem crazy to me, but a bit lower than my intuition of his value would suggest. I don't think Wennberg has been a top six quality player, but it feels close. I looked into the model and found a couple things that would drag down a Wennberg type:

1. The model is largely built off of a game score framework that heavily weights shots. They're worth about 1/10th of a goal in the model, so a lot of players are getting more "value" on shots than on points, which is nuts to me. If a shot isn't leading to goals or assists, it's not worth anything in my opinion.

2. (This critique applies to most models) PP production is either given extra weight or in this case equal weight to 5v5. By value over replacement, it should be weighted less than 5v5 - replacement level players score much closer to average on the PP than on 5v5.

Wennberg hasn't been getting consistent PP time, is getting no extra credit for being a great PKer, and of course doesn't get spurious value for shooting the puck.

I'm sure someone's going to read this and claim I'm a Wennberg booster - unlike they who have the middle-ground position that he is very middling. I'm arguing that he is middling, and not quite as low as this model suggests. No one thinks he's been very good.

 

[Cowumbus]

I see Wennberg as a Lars Eller type player. A very good 3C if your team has good depth.

 

[thebus88]

What a fall, huh?

Which took the bigger 'hit'?

Perception? Reality? Or, Expectations?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

What a fall, huh?

Which took the bigger 'hit'?

Perception? Reality? Or, Expectations?

You guys all thought he was going to be able to replace Johansen as a legit number one center but as I told you guys all along that wasn't realistic given his skill-set and playing style. So I guess expectations but that's you guys' fault, not mine.

 

[EDM]

In all my negative commentary about "Pooh" over the past couple of years, I have always said he is basically no more than a third line center. Glad to see others finally coming around.

 

[EDM]

Although considering that he is so poor at face offs that he pretty much requires another center to play on his line with him, perhaps he is better thought of as a third line wing.

 

[Monk]

In all my negative commentary about "Pooh" over the past couple of years, I have always said he is basically no more than a third line center. Glad to see others finally coming around.

So you mean if the coaches had just played him on the "third" line instead of the "second" line you would have been happy all these years? And who should they have played above him?

 

[KJ Dangler]

So you mean if the coaches had just played him on the "third" line instead of the "second" line you would have been happy all these years? And who should they have played above him?

Or if the front office pegged him correctly as a #3 center , and went out and got a legitimate #2 center . Instead we were fed the garbage that he would compete with PLD for the #1 job . Who is our #2 center currently ? Jenner ?

 

[blahblah]

NHL Player Ratings, NHL Player Rankings Source: Corsica Hockey-analytics site

Wennberg has a ranking of 392 overall and 107 among centers. 772 players were rated which comes out to 25 per team, so some minor league NHL contracted players, I assume, were included.

Oh boy, more advanced stats.

 

[major major]

In all my negative commentary about "Pooh" over the past couple of years, I have always said he is basically no more than a third line center. Glad to see others finally coming around.

So do you now hate on Boone because he's not a prototypical 2C either? Show me the way!

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Oh boy, more advanced stats.

Bring on the definitive eye test of the great blah blah!!

Advanced stats are just tools to use. Learn how to use them.

 

[EDM]

No, it has always been my point that Jarmo should have gone out and obtained a real center for the second line. I am impressed by what Boone has done so far and hope he continues to improve.

 

[EDM]

Who should Jarmo have obtained? ROR was available this past summer.