Prospect Info: The Adolescent 2019 Draft Thread

[lakai17]

How about a flyer on Hitmen captain Mark Kastelic in the later rounds? He has 40+ goals with 100+ pim. 6'3 and 220lbs.

 

[Stud Muffin]

How about a flyer on Hitmen captain Mark Kastelic in the later rounds? He has 40+ goals with 100+ pim. 6'3 and 220lbs.

Seems like an good player but I’m not a fan of taking overagers in the draft. Imo if you have interest in the player than I just sign him right now, and use the pick on guys who are first year eligible.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Seems like an good player but I’m not a fan of taking overagers in the draft. Imo if you have interest in the player than I just sign him right now, and use the pick on guys who are first year eligible.

Isnt there only a certain period they can be signed or they have to be drafted or wait until after the draft?

 

[lakai17]

Seems like an good player but I’m not a fan of taking overagers in the draft. Imo if you have interest in the player than I just sign him right now, and use the pick on guys who are first year eligible.

Not sure if you can sign him right now but I don't know the criteria on that stuff just like Brett Leason.

 

[780il]

Leason in the 2nd round?

Or should we go for another skill player in the 2nd and try to end up with an Aho or Debrincat?

Leason would be the safe choice, but probably only has 25 goal + 55 point upside.

 

[Stud Muffin]

Thinking I’ll throw out my first rankings of the year now that the trade deadline has come and gone.

1. Jack Hughes C - Outstanding hands and hockey sense to go along with world class skating. His ability to weave through defenders creates multiple chances for his team and keeps defenders guessing when he comes over the line. NHL ETA- 19/20
2. Kaapo Kakko W - Big body winger has all the tools with a toolbox to match which has allowed him to break records In Finland this season and allowed him to close the gap between 1 and 2. NHL ETA- 19/20
3. Vasili Podkolzin W - The young Russian has drawn some comparisons to Pavel Datsyuk due to his filthy mitts and responsible two way game, Podkolzin also possesses a great shot and is best known for his pace of play/compete level. NHL ETA- 21/22
4. Dylan Cozens C - 6’3 speedy centre with two way acumen who owns a heavy shot and can push the play up ice. sometimes skates himself into trouble. NHL ETA- 20/21
5. Kirby Dach C/W - Big forward who plays a very Draisaitl like came with excellent vision, puck control, puck protection, and hockey. Improved shot and foot speed over the summer leaves the only concern In his game as consistency. NHL ETA- 20/21
6. Bowen Byram LD - Heady two way defender with solid size. Plays a physical game and is known to be a leader. Great mobility and a heavy shot that has enabled him to score 22 goals so far. NHL ETA- 21/22
7. Alex Turcotte C - As complete as a player as there is in this draft. Alex is and intense battler and has soft hands which keep up with his high tempo. Puts himself in the right positions to score. NHL ETA- 21-22
8. Trevor Zegras C/W - Incredibly smooth skater and stick handler, impressed at the 5 nations tournament with his vision and dynamic gameplay. NHL ETA- 22/23
9. Victor Soderstrom RD - Smallish two way D who is one of the smartest players in the draft and playing 16+ minutes a night in a men’s league. Great puck rusher and has a good release. NHL ETA- 22/23
10. Peyton Krebs C/W - 5’11 Centre who brings great work ethic to the table, Krebs is a smart player who is more passer than scorer and likely has room to grow physically as his brother Dakota is 6’4. NHL ETA- 21/22

 

[lakai17]

Leason in the 2nd round?

Or should we go for another skill player in the 2nd and try to end up with an Aho or Debrincat?

Leason would be the safe choice, but probably only has 25 goal + 55 point upside.

Leason may be not be available come our 2nd rounder. Although I'd highly consider if he is.

 

[Stud Muffin]

I guess you have to sign the draft eligible player in summer between the time he passes through and before his first game of the new season.

 

[Aerrol]

If we draft in the 8th to 12th range, I would like us to take the best defender available. I just see more value in a top-end D prospect, even if development might take around two years longer. We already have two of the most talented centers in the league, and finding complementary players to have success alongside those two shouldn't really be that difficult now that Chia is gone. Any GM that is at least half-decent should be able to find guys who can effectively support McD and Drai.

Trading for a high-end D is a different animal. Those are hard to come by. And looking at our D-corps, by the time a drafted prospect would be ready to make an impact, Russell and Sekera will most likely be gone, Larsson will be an UFA and might not want to re-sign, and Benning, Petrovic and Gravel might not be here and/or are not top4-material anyway. That basically leaves you with Klefbom, Nurse, Jones and Bouchard from the current D-corps from the summer of 2021 onwards. There may be other prospects like Lagesson or Samorukov who could end up being legit NHLers, but how many of those six that I've mentioned project to be top-pairing D-man? Klefbom - if he can stay reasonably healthy. Bouchard - we'll have to wait and see. Nurse - I'm not convinced. Jones - maybe middle pairing.

I can't help but think having a Cam York in the pipeline would be sweet in two years' time.

The flipside of this thinking, though, is that it sometimes leads you to make silly decisions by overthinking it at the draft. Case and point? The Penguins taking Derrick Pouliot over Filip Forsberg despite Forsberg being the 'duh' pick at 8th OA that year. Ray Shero was, at that time, obsessed with drafting dmen because of their higher value. I prefer just to take whoever you think is the best player in a spot.

 

[Debbie Mathers]

The flipside of this thinking, though, is that it sometimes leads you to make silly decisions by overthinking it at the draft. Case and point? The Penguins taking Derrick Pouliot over Filip Forsberg despite Forsberg being the 'duh' pick at 8th OA that year. Ray Shero was, at that time, obsessed with drafting dmen because of their higher value. I prefer just to take whoever you think is the best player in a spot.

Well, it all boils down to the scouts' assessment, doesn't it. The Pens scouts probably saw something special in Pouliot, and he couldn't live up to it. In hindsight, Forsberg would certainly have been the better pick.
But sometimes the scouts are right by gambling on a player that they think has something special - like Winnipeg with Scheifele.
I mean, if there is a forward available when it's our turn to draft that our scouts think is cleary BPA, they should go for him, of course. It's kinda the only advantage of our many holes in our roster that we can basically just draft BPA regardless of position, I guess. But if it's close, I'd personally prefer the d-man.

 

[Canovin]

Leason in the 2nd round?

Or should we go for another skill player in the 2nd and try to end up with an Aho or Debrincat?

Leason would be the safe choice, but probably only has 25 goal + 55 point upside.

I think Leason floor is a #3C. That's exactly what we need.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

I think Leason floor is a #3C. That's exactly what we need.

If lesson is there at our second rounder I think we should take him, could make an impact on our shitty forward group in a year I’d imagine with him probably being one of the most nhl ready prospects

 

[Zaddy]

The flipside of this thinking, though, is that it sometimes leads you to make silly decisions by overthinking it at the draft. Case and point? The Penguins taking Derrick Pouliot over Filip Forsberg despite Forsberg being the 'duh' pick at 8th OA that year. Ray Shero was, at that time, obsessed with drafting dmen because of their higher value. I prefer just to take whoever you think is the best player in a spot.

You could just as easily turn it around though. Look at Nashville. Drafted Seth Jones in 2013 despite already having Weber, Josi, Ellis and Ekholm. And then in 2016 they drafted two D in Dante Fabbro and Samuel Girard with their first two picks. Since then they've moved Jones and Girard for Johansen and Turris. D's always come at a premium and I don't think it's ever really a bad idea to take one high in the draft even if you're stacked. Wingers on the other hand lose value really fast and in general just aren't as valuable.

But of course you take the player you believe will have the best career. But I think one interesting debate, at least for me and with my list in mind, would be Krebs vs York for instance. I think there definitely could be an argument to be made for taking York in that situation based on the premium on D. Like, say they both hit the same type of ceiling in terms of their position, meaning Krebs becomes a 2nd liner and York becomes a 2nd pair puck-moving D. Who is more valuable, both to their team and in a trade? Obviously the D. So that's where things get interesting.

I don't have a set opinion about any of this, just throwing some of my thoughts out there.

 

[ImmuneEH]

You could just as easily turn it around though. Look at Nashville. Drafted Seth Jones in 2013 despite already having Weber, Josi, Ellis and Ekholm. And then in 2016 they drafted two D in Dante Fabbro and Samuel Girard with their first two picks. Since then they've moved Jones and Girard for Johansen and Turris. D's always come at a premium and I don't think it's ever really a bad idea to take one high in the draft even if you're stacked. Wingers on the other hand lose value really fast and in general just aren't as valuable.

But of course you take the player you believe will have the best career. But I think one interesting debate, at least for me and with my list in mind, would be Krebs vs York for instance. I think there definitely could be an argument to be made for taking York in that situation based on the premium on D. Like, say they both hit the same type of ceiling in terms of their position, meaning Krebs becomes a 2nd liner and York becomes a 2nd pair puck-moving D. Who is more valuable, both to their team and in a trade? Obviously the D. So that's where things get interesting.

I don't have a set opinion about any of this, just throwing some of my thoughts out there.

I think the benefit of drafting and developing D is that you have a plethora of D to fit into your D-core, and whoever is the odd one out can still be traded for a valuable piece at another position which fits your needs. There is a lot more control over crafting a roster it seems.

 

[Aerrol]

Well, it all boils down to the scouts' assessment, doesn't it. The Pens scouts probably saw something special in Pouliot, and he couldn't live up to it. In hindsight, Forsberg would certainly have been the better pick.
But sometimes the scouts are right by gambling on a player that they think has something special - like Winnipeg with Scheifele.
I mean, if there is a forward available when it's our turn to draft that our scouts think is cleary BPA, they should go for him, of course. It's kinda the only advantage of our many holes in our roster that we can basically just draft BPA regardless of position, I guess. But if it's close, I'd personally prefer the d-man.

I agree with the bolded, but having followed the Pens closely for years, Shero's directive was definitely to take the best dman if they're at all comparable - not just that they saw something dramatically better in Pouliot. After Shero left, there was a dramatic shift back to best player available from drafting dman every single draft year. As I will respond to Zaddy below though, I definitely see the argument for taking the defender over the Winger if all things are equal between the prospects (but I think they seldom are). Personally, I'd rather draft for team need over pure defender at that point, respective value at those positions be damned.

You could just as easily turn it around though. Look at Nashville. Drafted Seth Jones in 2013 despite already having Weber, Josi, Ellis and Ekholm. And then in 2016 they drafted two D in Dante Fabbro and Samuel Girard with their first two picks. Since then they've moved Jones and Girard for Johansen and Turris. D's always come at a premium and I don't think it's ever really a bad idea to take one high in the draft even if you're stacked. Wingers on the other hand lose value really fast and in general just aren't as valuable.

But of course you take the player you believe will have the best career. But I think one interesting debate, at least for me and with my list in mind, would be Krebs vs York for instance. I think there definitely could be an argument to be made for taking York in that situation based on the premium on D. Like, say they both hit the same type of ceiling in terms of their position, meaning Krebs becomes a 2nd liner and York becomes a 2nd pair puck-moving D. Who is more valuable, both to their team and in a trade? Obviously the D. So that's where things get interesting.

I don't have a set opinion about any of this, just throwing some of my thoughts out there.

Since I always like talking draft with you, I'm going to draw this out a bit more than saying I basically agree with you. Obviously we agree that bolded is true. The interesting debate is in the distinctions.

First, I think Nashville had to take Jones that year because he was just clearly the best player available (though lol, looking at Pulju here, haha...). I was shocked when Tampa passed on Jones. That was clearly a bad move on their part.

Overall, I think I'd value team need (in the prospect pipeline) over just taking the defender just cause. Nashville's strategy of overloading at defence hasn't really turned into much playoff success for them until they started picking up forwards to balance them out. I definitely agree that premium defenders carry more value, and I guess if I were to pick my ideal prospect pool breakdown by percentage, it'd probably be 45% defender, 30% centre, 25% winger due to both rates of picks panning out and value of position, but I think at the end of the day the Oilers should just be picking a forward if all other things are equal. We can obviously always use more good defenders, but at the same time you run out of development spots in the AHL/NHL, and the team clearly, desperately, needs a good forward to play with our top 6. I think that need trumps the value of a defender personally (again, all other things being equal). So if it were between Krebs and York for me, I think I'd probably lean towards taking Krebs (but I haven't watched enough tape of either to be really comfortable saying either way).

 

[ImmuneEH]

Man, if we're picking at 8 I'll be so torn.

Any forward that we draft should not be expected to help us until his draft+2 season at the earliest. By then we also have tons of cap space opening up + players like Benson, Marody, and Yamamoto getting long looks with the Oilers (possibly as early as next year), as well as McLeod and Maksimov entering their 2nd year of pro. Wouldn't surprise me to see McLeod get a long look with the Oilers that season as well.

That being said, if we draft Byram our D pipeline will be stocked and I'd be so thrilled about that. To build a good team you build from the back out.

Steady flow of goalie prospects
Stolarz - potential back-up with upside. Does he sign here? Do we want him?
Starrett - Stellar rookie season.
Hawkey - Stellar college season.
Skinner & Wells - Both remain solid prospects, if they stagnate in their 2nd year of pro then that is concerning.
Rodrique - Having a solid season.

LD:
Jones - Upside is top 4LD.
Lagesson - Physical defensive D, + skater and is showing some offense. Upside is a #5 imo... guy who can anchor a pairing.
Samourukov - I like his game a lot, think his game will transfer to the pro level nicely.

RD:
Bouchard - Excellent puck mover, great vision in the offensive zone. Things he lacks can be improved on, such as D-zone play and skating -> see Draisaitl. Sky is the limit for him if those are fixed.
Bear - Having an injury addled pro career. I'd say his upside is as a 3RD who can run a PP.
Persson - Question will be how much his skating and defense has improved since signing him.

Having two players in Bouchard and Byram where 'the sky is the limit' would be really good for our future.

 

[Joey Moss]

I don't mind the thought of going the Nashville route and stockpiling defenseman. We would have a really good foundation with quality centers and defenseman. But if we do that our GM better be able to evaluate forwards because that's a much bigger need.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The issue with drafting too many D is your AHL team only has so many spots for defenders so you start running out of room. Which I guess you could always then trade one for a forward

 

[Joey Moss]

The issue with drafting too many D is your AHL team only has so many spots for defenders so you start running out of room. Which I guess you could always then trade one for a forward

I don't think that's any reason to avoid a defenseman. Byram could play 1-2 more years in the WHL before going to the AHL. By then guys like Jones, Bear, Lagesson aren't there.

 

[Aerrol]

I don't think that's any reason to avoid a defenseman. Byram could play 1-2 more years in the WHL before going to the AHL. By then guys like Jones, Bear, Lagesson aren't there.

Avoid? Absolutely no need. But I think he's got a good point if you think a forward and a dman are basically equivalent and can't decide otherwise.

 

[CupofOil]

BPA guys, BPA, especially this high up in the draft.
Saying that the Oilers should draft a forward because RIGHT NOW the pipeline is more D heavy or a D for the sake of following the model of another organization is just asking for trouble. Do you remember when many wanted to pass up Barzal and Connor (most were hoping for a trade) because the Oiler have enough skilled forwards already? Oh, I remember.

Of course BPA could also lead to a Yakupov or Puljujarvi pick but I'd take my chances again at taking the most skilled player left on the board. For instance, I wouldn't pass on Dach just because he's another Draisaitl type of player. Having two Draisaitls would be pretty awesome, no?
Furthermore, the pipeline needs are always fluid so what looks like a D heavy pipeline could well be forward heavy in a few years so don't draft for what the current need is. Current needs will need to be filled in trade and free agency.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

The Saskatoon Blades (Kirby Dach) played the Lethbridge Hurricanes (Dylan Cozens) last night.

Kirby Dach: 1-4-5, +3

Dylan Cozens: 0-1-1, +1

Cozens actually had a pretty good game, but from my viewings it's pretty clear Dach is on another level. That said, Cozen's skillset is still interesting. I'm not a fan of him and his IQ, but I think he could still be a great complimentary winger for us. Best case scenario he matures his game in the WHL and improves his shot and becomes a first-liner and elite PP one-time option.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I have the draft like this:

Tier 1
Kakko/Hughes

Tier 2
Dach/Turcotte

Tier 3
Byram/Krebs/Cozens/Zegras

Tier 4
Podkolzin/Boldy

Tier 5
York/McMichael/Pelletier/Heinola/Soderstrom

Tier 6
Newhook/Tomasino/Suzuki/Kaliyev/Broberg

 

[Canovin]

The Saskatoon Blades (Kirby Dach) played the Lethbridge Hurricanes (Dylan Cozens) last night.

Kirby Dach: 1-4-5, +3

Dylan Cozens: 0-1-1, +1

Cozens actually had a pretty good game, but from my viewings it's pretty clear Dach is on another level. That said, Cozen's skillset is still interesting. I'm not a fan of him and his IQ, but I think he could still be a great complimentary winger for us. Best case scenario he matures his game in the WHL and improves his shot and becomes a first-liner and elite PP one-time option.

Cozens really scares me. Wish we don't draft him unless it's outside the top 10. I know he's a shooter and he's known for his shot but his shot doesn't look all that impressive. It doesn't look like it would translate to the NHL

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Cozens really scares me. Wish we don't draft him unless it's outside the top 10. I know he's a shooter and he's known for his shot but his shot doesn't look all that impressive. It doesn't look like it would translate to the NHL

His shot is good and certainly one of his strengths, but he's known for his speed and his ability to drive to the net as well.

That said, he is certainly a scary prospect. He's got some great tools, but unless he matures his game, I see him as a complimentary piece at best in the NHL.

I have him at 7/8.

1. Kakko
2. Hughes
3/4. Dach/Turcotte
5. Krebs
6. Byram
7/8. Cozens/Zegras