Prospect Info: The Adolescent 2019 Draft Thread

[McJadeddog]

Some Wild fan said that if we end up with a 6-8th pick and they get a mid teens pick, they would add Zucker to exchange picks.

Zucker is the exact type of "mid tier winger" that this team needs. 20+ goals in 4 of the past 5 seasons, young enough to be part of the solution, makes $5.5 so won't break the bank, and signed for 4 more years. Unfortunately, it will take a lot more than a 8-10th overall draft pick to get a player like Zucker.

That is the EXACT type of trade we should be looking at though. Getting a "maybe" in the 8-10 spot doesn't help us for 3-5 years, as those players almost always take a few years to be ready (if they are ever ready). A "Zucker type" could step right onto our team, and score 25 goals for the next 4 years playing with McDavid or Drai. Helping us actually win some games while we still have 97/29, before 1 of them asks for a trade because the team is so freaking terrible year and year. Eventually we have to realize that our "window to win" is the next 6 years, starting TODAY. Waiting for 3-5 years for a maybe player to actually help isn't the answer.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Yak scored 50 to ...... we need high IQ players coming in. Just look at what a Sam Gagner level player has done in our group. If Kaliyev can move and make plays, read the ice and score goals then great, but if he is 1 dimensional, it doesn't make much of a difference other then more goals for and more goals against.

It’s funny reading Oiler fans saying they want Kaliyev. He is the exact kind of player that Oiler fans tend to hate. I’ve only had 2 live views of Kaliyev (this season) but the quite a few Ontario based scouts that I know wouldn’t take him in the top 40 never mind near the top 10. I would be shocked if he went in the top 10.

For those wondering about his game, Kaliyev has good size and an absolutely wicked shot. He isn’t a great skater but what often amplifies his weakish skating is his lack of compete level and effort around the ice. He lets his line mates do the heavy lifting while he just floats in the offensive zone waiting for his chance to shoot the puck. I won’t even bother talking about his defensive deficiencies.

The goal scoring upside is definitely intriguing but there is a reason that teams don’t just look at stats. If the oilers traded down from ~8 and got 2 picks in that 15-25 range I would consider taking him there.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

But with that all being said, if his goal scoring ability translates to the pro level then you could have a heck of a goal scorer on your team. I should also note that his Hamilton team isn’t exactly deep with offence. He is definitely their go to producer.

 

[McDNicks17]

It’s funny reading Oiler fans saying they want Kaliyev. He is the exact kind of player that Oiler fans tend to hate. I’ve only had 2 live views of Kaliyev (this season) but the quite a few Ontario based scouts that I know wouldn’t take him in the top 40 never mind near the top 10. I would be shocked if he went in the top 10.

For those wondering about his game, Kaliyev has good size and an absolutely wicked shot. He isn’t a great skater but what often amplifies his weakish skating is his lack of compete level and effort around the ice. He lets his line mates do the heavy lifting while he just floats in the offensive zone waiting for his chance to shoot the puck. I won’t even bother talking about his defensive deficiencies.

The goal scoring upside is definitely intriguing but there is a reason that teams don’t just look at stats. If the oilers traded down from ~8 and got 2 picks in that 15-25 range I would consider taking him there.

That's because the fans(and the Oilers scouts, unfortunately) tend to love limited players who try really hard.

If I'm running a team and one of my scouts puts enough weight into the defense and hustle of winger to basically cancel out their elite goal-scoring potential, I'd be giving them their walking papers instantly. That's just an archaic way to scout. Those things should be way down your list of importance when looking at wingers, especially.

The Oilers draft history is plagued with that philosophy. It's hard to even keep track of all the guys with plus defense and motor who didn't have the skill to cut it in the AHL or even their junior leagues.

 

[dustrock]

Guys is there some reason not to take Turcotte at #3 onwards?

I tend to get fixated each draft.

I had Draisaitl in 2014.

2015 is wasn't McDavid that was the worry but Kyle Connor was my guy at #16.

2016 I was thinking Chychrun or Sergachev.

2017 I have to admit where the Oilers were picking I wanted Yamamoto.

2018 it was Ty Smith or Wahlstrom for me.

For some reason I am fixating on Turcotte for 2019. Otherwise you buggers have got me thinking Byram.

 

[780il]

Guys is there some reason not to take Turcotte at #3 onwards?

I tend to get fixated each draft.

I had Draisaitl in 2014.

2015 is wasn't McDavid that was the worry but Kyle Connor was my guy at #16.

2016 I was thinking Chychrun or Sergachev.

2017 I have to admit where the Oilers were picking I wanted Yamamoto.

2018 it was Ty Smith or Wahlstrom for me.

For some reason I am fixating on Turcotte for 2019. Otherwise you buggers have got me thinking Byram.

I love Turcotte and Byram. I'd run around the block naked screaming if we got either one.

 

[snipes]

If we’re picking in the 9-14 range and Byram is off the board, I’m really intrigued by Cam York.

Seems like an absolutely dynamic Dman.

 

[780il]

If we’re picking in the 9-14 range and Byram is off the board, I’m really intrigued by Cam York.

Seems like an absolutely dynamic Dman.

No way Byram falls out of the top 6 so if we're picking 9-14 were not getting him. Period.

 

[snipes]

No way Byram falls out of the top 6 so if we're picking 9-14 were not getting him. Period.

Yeah I know, I have him 3rd on my board. As you know, he’s my favourite player in the draft we’ve talked about Byram before.

He just oozes skill, reminds me of Rielly at the same age. Just a fantastic skater and can really push the puck up ice. He’d be perfect for us. Surprisingly physical too.

 

[McSpecial DraiBlend]

I'll help hold you to this statement. Saving this reply

I love Turcotte and Byram. I'd run around the block naked screaming if we got either one.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Kaliyev has 100 points, so I'm not going to ignore him.

List of players in the OHL since 2000 to score 100+ points in a season as a draft-eligible.

Connor McDavid
John Tavares
Dylan Strome
Mitch Marner
Sam Gagner
Kyle Wellwood
Jason Spezza
Tyler Seguin
Ryan Strome
Steven Stamkos
Alex DeBrincat
Arthur Kaliyev

List of players in the OHL since 2000 to score 50+ goals in a season as a draft-eligible.

John Tavares
Steven Stamkos
Alex DeBrincat
Jeff Skinner
Arthur Kaliyev

Can't ignore that every one of those guys played NHL games - and the goal-scorers list is high quality.

Consider that Ryan Strome is 17th in scoring in his draft year, and Sam Gagner is 8th.

I think you can make a very, very strong argument off production alone that Kaliyev is at minimum worth a 15th overall pick.

Now, I've seen him play too. He's absolutely unstoppable with his shot around the net and on the PP at the junior level. His skating isn't fast. His defensive game isn't really present. He certainly has hands. He's a guy who will score goals with the right playmaker on the PP - he's a bit like Alex Semin in how he uses his body. He kind of plays the Draisaitl-style on the powerplay actually, which is funny.

If there are two-way beasts with star potential on the board, you take them ahead of Kaliyev, but you're happy with Kaliyev if all that's left are role players, grit, decent-ish D-men etc. The powerplay is becoming more important in this NHL and Kaliyev seems like an important piece for teams who lack snipers.

 

[TheNumber4]

Zucker is the exact type of "mid tier winger" that this team needs. 20+ goals in 4 of the past 5 seasons, young enough to be part of the solution, makes $5.5 so won't break the bank, and signed for 4 more years. Unfortunately, it will take a lot more than a 8-10th overall draft pick to get a player like Zucker.

That is the EXACT type of trade we should be looking at though. Getting a "maybe" in the 8-10 spot doesn't help us for 3-5 years, as those players almost always take a few years to be ready (if they are ever ready). A "Zucker type" could step right onto our team, and score 25 goals for the next 4 years playing with McDavid or Drai. Helping us actually win some games while we still have 97/29, before 1 of them asks for a trade because the team is so freaking terrible year and year. Eventually we have to realize that our "window to win" is the next 6 years, starting TODAY. Waiting for 3-5 years for a maybe player to actually help isn't the answer.

Not a fan of established value players, you’ll pay out the nose to get them whether by high draft picks or roster players through trade or high dollar value through free agency. What the Oilers should be targeting are guys that are struggling with their teams but have sky high potential. Like Domi last year, we should have offered up Pulju for him, I would have.

Of course in order to do this, the Oilers need to be able to assess talent, and they haven’t shown that ability

 

[ImmuneEH]

Kaliyev has 100 points, so I'm not going to ignore him.

List of players in the OHL since 2000 to score 100+ points in a season as a draft-eligible.

Connor McDavid
John Tavares
Dylan Strome
Mitch Marner
Sam Gagner
Kyle Wellwood
Jason Spezza
Tyler Seguin
Ryan Strome
Steven Stamkos
Alex DeBrincat
Arthur Kaliyev

List of players in the OHL since 2000 to score 50+ goals in a season as a draft-eligible.

John Tavares
Steven Stamkos
Alex DeBrincat
Jeff Skinner
Arthur Kaliyev

Can't ignore that every one of those guys played NHL games - and the goal-scorers list is high quality.

Consider that Ryan Strome is 17th in scoring in his draft year, and Sam Gagner is 8th.

I think you can make a very, very strong argument off production alone that Kaliyev is at minimum worth a 15th overall pick.

Now, I've seen him play too. He's absolutely unstoppable with his shot around the net and on the PP at the junior level. His skating isn't fast. His defensive game isn't really present. He certainly has hands. He's a guy who will score goals with the right playmaker on the PP - he's a bit like Alex Semin in how he uses his body. He kind of plays the Draisaitl-style on the powerplay actually, which is funny.

If there are two-way beasts with star potential on the board, you take them ahead of Kaliyev, but you're happy with Kaliyev if all that's left are role players, grit, decent-ish D-men etc. The powerplay is becoming more important in this NHL and Kaliyev seems like an important piece for teams who lack snipers.

I guess the worry is, can the Oilers develop him properly? He's obviously very raw.

 

[smokersarejokers]

It’s funny reading Oiler fans saying they want Kaliyev. He is the exact kind of player that Oiler fans tend to hate. I’ve only had 2 live views of Kaliyev (this season) but the quite a few Ontario based scouts that I know wouldn’t take him in the top 40 never mind near the top 10. I would be shocked if he went in the top 10.

For those wondering about his game, Kaliyev has good size and an absolutely wicked shot. He isn’t a great skater but what often amplifies his weakish skating is his lack of compete level and effort around the ice. He lets his line mates do the heavy lifting while he just floats in the offensive zone waiting for his chance to shoot the puck. I won’t even bother talking about his defensive deficiencies.

The goal scoring upside is definitely intriguing but there is a reason that teams don’t just look at stats. If the oilers traded down from ~8 and got 2 picks in that 15-25 range I would consider taking him there.

Interesting.

I haven't seen him play much, but his stats are certainly impressive.

Maybe I'm off base, but what you said kind of reminds me of Pavel Brendl. The guy was big and could score at will, but he was slow and always cherry picking or playing on the perimeter. The Rangers took him in the top 10 and he kinda bounced around for a bit before going back to Europe.

 

[Llamamoto]

Guys is there some reason not to take Turcotte at #3 onwards?

I tend to get fixated each draft.

I had Draisaitl in 2014.

2015 is wasn't McDavid that was the worry but Kyle Connor was my guy at #16.

2016 I was thinking Chychrun or Sergachev.

2017 I have to admit where the Oilers were picking I wanted Yamamoto.

2018 it was Ty Smith or Wahlstrom for me.

For some reason I am fixating on Turcotte for 2019. Otherwise you buggers have got me thinking Byram.

I love Turcotte. I would definitely take him at 4, maybe even 3. (Him or Dach). He had a far better ppg than Hughes in the USHL this year. Sort of like Brayden Point.

(Although I am happy with the Evan Bouchard pick last year, and am ok with the Yams one).

 

[Fourier]

Kaliyev has 100 points, so I'm not going to ignore him.

List of players in the OHL since 2000 to score 100+ points in a season as a draft-eligible.

Connor McDavid
John Tavares
Dylan Strome
Mitch Marner
Sam Gagner
Kyle Wellwood
Jason Spezza
Tyler Seguin
Ryan Strome
Steven Stamkos
Alex DeBrincat
Arthur Kaliyev

List of players in the OHL since 2000 to score 50+ goals in a season as a draft-eligible.

John Tavares
Steven Stamkos
Alex DeBrincat
Jeff Skinner
Arthur Kaliyev

Can't ignore that every one of those guys played NHL games - and the goal-scorers list is high quality.

Consider that Ryan Strome is 17th in scoring in his draft year, and Sam Gagner is 8th.

I think you can make a very, very strong argument off production alone that Kaliyev is at minimum worth a 15th overall pick.

Now, I've seen him play too. He's absolutely unstoppable with his shot around the net and on the PP at the junior level. His skating isn't fast. His defensive game isn't really present. He certainly has hands. He's a guy who will score goals with the right playmaker on the PP - he's a bit like Alex Semin in how he uses his body. He kind of plays the Draisaitl-style on the powerplay actually, which is funny.

If there are two-way beasts with star potential on the board, you take them ahead of Kaliyev, but you're happy with Kaliyev if all that's left are role players, grit, decent-ish D-men etc. The powerplay is becoming more important in this NHL and Kaliyev seems like an important piece for teams who lack snipers.

The Oilers need goal scorers. The guy does not have to be great two way winger to play with McDavid and Leon. But he will need smarts. I have honestly not seen much of Kaliyev. How well does he think the game.

 

[Fourier]

Interesting.

I haven't seen him play much, but his stats are certainly impressive.

Maybe I'm off base, but what you said kind of reminds me of Pavel Brendl. The guy was big and could score at will, but he was slow and always cherry picking or playing on the perimeter. The Rangers took him in the top 10 and he kinda bounced around for a bit before going back to Europe.

Anthony Mantha was another guy who could shoot but had consistency issues. I'd be fine with him right now. You can teach a guy to compete. But you can't teach a plug to score. Sometimes you just have to take a chance.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

That's because the fans(and the Oilers scouts, unfortunately) tend to love limited players who try really hard.

If I'm running a team and one of my scouts puts enough weight into the defense and hustle of winger to basically cancel out their elite goal-scoring potential, I'd be giving them their walking papers instantly. That's just an archaic way to scout. Those things should be way down your list of importance when looking at wingers, especially.

The Oilers draft history is plagued with that philosophy. It's hard to even keep track of all the guys with plus defense and motor who didn't have the skill to cut it in the AHL or even their junior leagues.

That’s ridiculous and the frustrations that come with Kaliyev are obvious when watching him. No one is saying he should be the hardest working player on the ice or has to be a grinder but he puts very little effort into a lot of plays. That’s a problem for most of the scouts that watch him. It’s not his lack of defence, tons of offensive minded forwards don’t contribute defensively.

To say you would fire your scouts if they passed on his goal scoring because he doesn’t always work hard? Well then every team should be firing their scouts because he’s putting up the numbers of a top 5 pick but he isn’t going to be drafted top 5... why is that? It’s because he’s not like those other OHL players that everyone keeps mentioning who had similar numbers and doesn’t play like them (Tavares, Stamkos, Seguin, Hall etc).

If his goal scoring can even partially translate, especially if he’s positioned next to an elite nhl playmaker, then he could be an absolute steal no doubt but he needs To work on his game. If the Oilers ended up trading down from ~8 for 2 picks between 16 and 26 then I would be really happy if they could get 2 of Kaliyev/Newhook/York/Broberg/Harley

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Interesting.

I haven't seen him play much, but his stats are certainly impressive.

Maybe I'm off base, but what you said kind of reminds me of Pavel Brendl. The guy was big and could score at will, but he was slow and always cherry picking or playing on the perimeter. The Rangers took him in the top 10 and he kinda bounced around for a bit before going back to Europe.

Interesting comparison actually. I don’t think Kaliyev is as lazy but they do have similar concerns.

 

[780il]

Kaliyev is a guy that's very interesting.

He's putting up very similar numbers to Debrincat in his draft year while being a couple months younger. Also his quality of teammates is lower than that of Debrincat in his draft year. The reason Debrincat was passed up was his size, Kaliyevs compete and effort level get him looked over.

If we could trade up from our 2nd rounder along with a future 3rd and something else into the 1st round, I'd take Kaliyev and run. He could turn into a Debrincat level steal easily. Especially when playing with a playmaker of the calibre of Connor or Leon.

 

[McDNicks17]

Interesting.

I haven't seen him play much, but his stats are certainly impressive.

Maybe I'm off base, but what you said kind of reminds me of Pavel Brendl. The guy was big and could score at will, but he was slow and always cherry picking or playing on the perimeter. The Rangers took him in the top 10 and he kinda bounced around for a bit before going back to Europe.

I posted this over on the prospects board, but there's a vast difference between the success rate of u18 scorers in the OHL and the WHL.

WHL.

OHL.

 

[McDNicks17]

That’s ridiculous and the frustrations that come with Kaliyev are obvious when watching him. No one is saying he should be the hardest working player on the ice or has to be a grinder but he puts very little effort into a lot of plays. That’s a problem for most of the scouts that watch him. It’s not his lack of defence, tons of offensive minded forwards don’t contribute defensively.

To say you would fire your scouts if they passed on his goal scoring because he doesn’t always work hard? Well then every team should be firing their scouts because he’s putting up the numbers of a top 5 pick but he isn’t going to be drafted top 5... why is that? It’s because he’s not like those other OHL players that everyone keeps mentioning who had similar numbers and doesn’t play like them (Tavares, Stamkos, Seguin, Hall etc).

If his goal scoring can even partially translate, especially if he’s positioned next to an elite nhl playmaker, then he could be an absolute steal no doubt but he needs To work on his game. If the Oilers ended up trading down from ~8 for 2 picks between 16 and 26 then I would be really happy if they could get 2 of Kaliyev/Newhook/York/Broberg/Harley

I just don't put much weight into that stuff because the hyperbole has been turned up to 11 from being in the echo chamber. He has an awkward stride. That gets into the echo chamber and he's a terrible skater. He was making some poor decisions in the neutral zone, so he has terrible hockey sense. He doesn't compete in the defensive end, so he has terrible work ethic.

His compete level isn't an issue in the offensive zone. He digs just like everyone else if there's a chance he's going to get the puck or a chance out of it.

If the puck is on the other side of the ice, he's not overly interested. That's a concern, but again, that's barely even on my list when I'm looking for an impact player in the middle of the 1st round.


Like I was saying about Hayton last year, he's not a guy you can watch a few clips of and read some scouting reports because most of those reports are going to be hot takes based on the hot take of someone basing it off a hot take. All the nuance is gone and you're just left with an ill-informed report full of hyperbolic weaknesses.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

I just don't put much weight into that stuff because the hyperbole has been turned up to 11 from being in the echo chamber. He has an awkward stride. That gets into the echo chamber and he's a terrible skater. He was making some poor decisions in the neutral zone, so he has terrible hockey sense. He doesn't compete in the defensive end, so he has terrible work ethic.

His compete level isn't an issue in the offensive zone. He digs just like everyone else if there's a chance he's going to get the puck or a chance out of it.

If the puck is on the other side of the ice, he's not overly interested. That's a concern, but again, that's barely even on my list when I'm looking for an impact player in the middle of the 1st round.


Like I was saying about Hayton last year, he's not a guy you can watch a few clips of and read some scouting reports because most of those reports are going to be hot takes based on the hot take of someone basing it off a hot take. All the nuance is gone and you're just left with an ill-informed report full of hyperbolic weaknesses.

Except I’m not talking about ill-informed people who think this and watch useless highlight videos. I’m talking about scouts that I know that have followed him since he was 15 and have seen 20+ live views of him this season. If the concerns in his game were as little as you like to believe then he would be a top 3 pick which he won’t be.
At the end of the day he might improve his deficiencies and prove doubters wrong, he definitely knows how to score goals. I’ve already stated I think the Oiler should look at him outside the top 10 for that potential home run swing so it’s not like I hate the player but he is a bit of a risky pick.

 

[ImmuneEH]

Lets say we're picking in the teens, and we're looking to draft a forward - for the sake of the hypothetical.

Which one of these players excite you? Who would you reach for?

• Matthew Boldy
• Bobby Brink
• Ryan Suzuki
• Raphael Lavoie
• Connor McMichael
• Philip Tomasino
• Alex Newhook
• Cole Caufield
• Jakob Pelletier
• Pavel Dorofeyev

Left off Kaliyev because he's already been discussed so much already, curious how the board views these other options.

 

[McDNicks17]

Except I’m not talking about ill-informed people who think this and watch useless highlight videos. I’m talking about scouts that I know that have followed him since he was 15 and have seen 20+ live views of him this season. If the concerns in his game were as little as you like to believe then he would be a top 3 pick which he won’t be.
At the end of the day he might improve his deficiencies and prove doubters wrong, he definitely knows how to score goals. I’ve already stated I think the Oiler should look at him outside the top 10 for that potential home run swing so it’s not like I hate the player but he is a bit of a risky pick.

I don't doubt there's scouts who think that. I've heard it too, but it's definitely not the opinion of the majority of the scouts I've talked to.

Those concerns(skating and effort) aren't keeping him from being a top 3 pick. I'm not sure where you got that from. It's his playmaking, puck-carrying and questionable potential to drive a line at the NHL level doing that. That's not to say they're weaknesses, but they aren't top 3 caliber.

I have to question anyone who doesn't have him in at least the 10-20 range. You need to be looking for skill and smarts in the 1st round and there aren't 20+ players better than Kaliyev. I'd guess some teams won't have him in that range, but teams that use stuff like defense, motor and grit as anything other than a tiebreaker between similarly skilled players are bound to draft as poorly as the Oilers have.