Speculation: The 2020 Draft Thread: Part 1

[Jim Bob]

Senators' Dorion itching for draft lottery: Simulator 'part of my routine'

Pierre Dorion is one of us.

 

[Jim Bob]

Raymond seems to be a wild card. I've seen him as high as 2 somewhere and then out of the top ten. I could swear in a bunch of rankings he was ahead of holtz, but now he's behind.

Back to the CHL scoring, it makes Jarvis' numbers that much more impressive. It will be fun to see where he ends up.

Lucas Raymond at eliteprospects.com

I like how Elite Prospects has a handful of rankings to show where guys stand in a variety of rankings.

Ranked #6 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #4 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #5 by ISS HOCKEY
Ranked #4 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #4 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #3 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM

Raymond seems to be in that tier behind the top 3 for the most part.

 

[Jim Bob]

It's interesting to see Seattle cover a draft that they aren't a part of.

Getting reps in!

 

[Jim Bob]

Why 2020 NHL draft lottery could throw back to 2005 Crosby Sweepstakes - Sportsnet.ca

The 2005 lottery brings back baaaaaaad memories.

 

[flashsabre]

Why 2020 NHL draft lottery could throw back to 2005 Crosby Sweepstakes - Sportsnet.ca

The 2005 lottery brings back baaaaaaad memories.

I always think what could have been. If they won the Crosby lottery and came out of the lockout with the 05-06 team +Crosby

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I always think what could have been. If they won the Crosby lottery and came out of the lockout with the 05-06 team +Crosby

Back to back cups.

All these years later, I can’t say that I’m “glad” that they picked MarZepan, but I do admire them picking a boom or bust, high ceiling guy.

 

[jc17]

Interesting stats in the main forum Rossi thread. Apparently he scored at a significantly higher against weaker teams, relative to other prospects. The guy with that stat says it has been tracked for a number of years, but he hasnt made it available so there's no way of knowing whether its meaningful or not.

2020 NHL Draft: Questions On Sanderson, Stats, Askarov, Grans And More | HockeyProspect.com

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[jc17]

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Holtz, Raymond @ 7/8 if we stand out. Stutzle or Rossi if we can jump into top 3. If we can somehow jump to 2, we’d have to take Byfield, he and Cozens add some much size up front. Still praying for some Buffalo luck and to somehow land 1OA and grab AL.

Realistically, please give me Raymond or Holtz over Lundell or Perfetti.

 

[Jim Bob]

'Perfect' Fit

What Does It Mean To Draft Perfectly? An Evaluation Of Draft Strategy In The National Hockey League


I am really interested in reading this.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://www.si.com/nhl/2020/04/19/ushl-chicago-steel-prospects-prepare-nhl-draft

 

[jc17]

Holtz, Raymond @ 7/8 if we stand out. Stutzle or Rossi if we can jump into top 3. If we can somehow jump to 2, we’d have to take Byfield, he and Cozens add some much size up front. Still praying for some Buffalo luck and to somehow land 1OA and grab AL.

Realistically, please give me Raymond or Holtz over Lundell or Perfetti.

I'm hoping more game videos come out leading up to the draft. I want to see more, especially of the swedes. I have mixed thoughts.

Of the limited video i've been able to watch I'm not a Perfetti fan. I almost dont understand how he scored as much as he did. Its obvious hes got strong skills but seems like his presence and effort disappear often. That said, its hard to completely write off someone who scores that much without quality teammates.

As for Lundell I think his lack of speed definitely jumps out, but, from what I've watched of him, he finds ways to involve himself in the play all the time. He was never really invisible, which cant be said for some of the other guys in this draft. One thing that gives me some 2nd thoughts on him, is where his production came from. Watching videos of his goals and assists, there seems to be a pretty high number of low % shots that found their way in the back of the net and inflated his stats.

 

[Matt Ress]

'Perfect' Fit

What Does It Mean To Draft Perfectly? An Evaluation Of Draft Strategy In The National Hockey League


I am really interested in reading this.

Didn't expect that ending...

 

[Der Jaeger]

Didn't expect that ending...

Checking if I’m dumb or not. Did that say the Sabres were really good at drafting?

 

[truthbluth]

Checking if I’m dumb or not. Did that say the Sabres were really good at drafting?

Between 2000-2009

 

[jc17]

Every team think their drafting is bad because they see their teams failures and other teams' success. If you ask most Sabres fans they'd say our drafting was bad because of zagrapan, persson, brennan, but in reality they hit a lot of non-1sts.

 

[flashsabre]

NHL Draft could be held before resumption of season - TSN.ca

 

[Jim Bob]

Keeping NHL Draft in June raises lots of questions - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Jim Bob]

NHL Draft depth: When should a draft class be labeled good...

What is a good or bad draft?

With help from Schuckers, we put together a table of “draft successes” from the 1998 to 2009 NHL Drafts, successes defined by the above explanation of a player in the “high-end” or “very good” tier. With this data I could answer a few questions: What does a deep draft look like? What does a poor draft look like? How deep is an average draft?
Like above using just the 2004-09 drafts, adding the extra years back to 1998 didn’t change the answer on the average draft. That number was 24.3 successful players again, with the median being 24.5.
This table shows 12 of those drafts and the number of successes by position, in order of most successful to least successful draft.

YEAR	FORWARD SUCCESS	D-MAN SUCCESS	GOALIE SUCCESS	TOTAL
2003	23	10	3	36
1998	19	7	0	26
2001	17	7	2	26
2004	18	6	2	26
2005	14	9	3	26
2008	11	13	1	25
2002	13	9	2	24
2009	16	8	0	24
2007	16	6	0	22
2006	16	3	2	21
2000	10	7	2	19
1999	10	4	2	16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What I learned from this is, despite the odd great year such as a 2003, and the odd poor year such as 1999, for the most part the other 10 drafts had a very tight distribution of results. Nine of the 12 drafts had between 21-to-26 successful players. It lends more evidence to my theory that most draft classes are indistinguishable from each other.

2003 was freakishly good and 1999 was freakishly bad.

And most draft years are in the middle.

 

[Snippit]

1) Lafreniere
2) Byfield
3) Stutzle
4) Rossi
5) Drysdale
6) Raymond
7) Perfetti
8) Holtz

That's how I have it so far. If we can't get one of the top four forwards, give me Drysdale and enjoy an elite top pairing for the next decade plus.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

1) Lafreniere
2) Byfield
3) Stutzle
4) Rossi
5) Drysdale
6) Raymond
7) Perfetti
8) Holtz

That's how I have it so far. If we can't get one of the top four forwards, give me Drysdale and enjoy an elite top pairing for the next decade plus.

My list is similar:

AL
Stut
Rossi
Raymond
Drysdale
Byfield
Holtz
Perfetti

 

[m0pe]

My list is similar:

AL
Stut
Rossi
Raymond
Drysdale
Byfield
Holtz
Perfetti

Curios to why so low on Byfield?

Mine personally would be:

Lafreniere
Byfield
Stutzle
Raymond
Drysdale
Rossi
Holtz
Quinn

 

[hizzoner]

If we do not win a top 3 position in lottery I would be looking to see if we could get something we need --a top 6 F with youth and term-in a deal involving our pick. I agree with Lafreniere, Stutzle and Byfield as top 3 and feel good about their success in NHL-at least they have all the tools and are positions of need. I think the rest of the draft is a crap shoot although Drysdale reminds me of Brian Campbell. I just do not have the faith in some of the others that most posters seem to have. Mysiak, Jarvis and Grieg who are quite a bit younger than say Rossi could end up just as good as many of those touted a lot higher. I just hope the nhl does not change the draft again this year to screw Buffalo like they did before--introducing a lottery late in the season when it was clear the Sabres would pick first.

 

[Jim Bob]

Unless something changes with regards to the lottery, it would appear that either the Sabres are in the top 3 and they get one of the top 3 Fs or they are in that 7-10 range where Drysdale is likely off the board.

So, if the Sabres don't move up, I think the odds are heavy towards the Sabres going with a F with that pick.

If they don't, it's Askarov or Sanderson and this board melts down.