The bigger decision on playing time for Demko and Markstrom isn't what happens in the last eight games of the season....it's what to do about Markstrom in the off-season. He's a UFA at the end of next season. Do they re-sign him to an extension now, or wait to see how he performs next year?
If they decided to move him, could they get more for him this summer or at the TDL next season? I know there's usually a glut of veteran goalies on the UFA market every year, but if you're convinced that Markstrom's form of the last three months isn't a mirage, then he's a legitimate top-tier starting goaltender.
And Lord knows there are some teams in both the Eastern and Western Conference who either aren't making the playoffs or will lose in the first round because of problems in the crease.
The time to maximize his value might this off-season. Otherwise they might face the same problem next season, where Markstrom gets a bulk of the starts and Demko is reduced to back-to-backs or mop-up duty.
I'd like to see Demko get a good portion of the starts the rest of the way, but my reasoning is completely different and I don't agree with this reasoning.
My reasoning is simple. Demko is the more rested goaltender. Markstrom's games played at 56 so far this season isn't too much, but they've been a hard, taxing 56 games. He went through periods of time being the only healthy goalie Green trusted enough to play so he'd play almost all the games for periods of time during which the Canucks were bleeding shots and scoring chances to the extent that some of the games Markstrom played had to be at least as tiring as two average games.
It's the same idea as Tanev and Edler on defence. The guys playing big minutes on a team hemmed in it's own end absorbed more hits and blocked more shots than would normally be the case. They get hurt more.
I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Markstrom might falter under the load. He had a great game right after I suggested it but has had two weak outings recently. Maybe I'm just exercising confirmation bias but it seems to me he could use a light load right now.
Meanwhile, I don't buy the "see what we have" idea right now. I think the Canucks have seen enough to make their decisions.
1. Markstrom has been a solid starter this season, even though some of his stats may not show it. He's faced a hideous number of scoring chances to the extent that even 56 games is too many. What you see of him the rest of this season, after the work he's already put in, means nothing at all.
Waiting until his contract is about to expire seems silly to me. However, signing him may not be that simple. I dislike long-term contracts for players as they reach their thirties and while I think Markstrom deserves another contract and it is in the Canucks' best interest to sign him, coming to a deal on what he is worth and how long the contract should be could be difficult.
I think the Canucks should be trying to sign Markstrom to about a 3 year deal. Two would be fine. He may want more. Money may be an issue. If it might be tough to sign him to a deal that's reasonable for the team, it's best to know that early on. If that is the case, you look to trade him while you can get some value out of him.
Then if it turns out the Canucks want to go with Demko as a starter during the term of Markstrom's extension and Markstrom is still playing well enough to be useful, you trade him, just so long as in the meantime you haven't created a situation where, to use the words of the immortal BobbyLu, his "contract sucks."
2. The Canucks are going to assume Demko is ready to assume a fair load as backup or even 1B goalie. After a weak start to his NHL season, he's been fine, even good, in his starts since then. They don't need to see more. They are going with Demko as 1B or frequently used backup next season regardless of what happens in the dog days of Garbage Time.
But on the other hand, there's every reason to let Markstrom start to regain some of his energy, so imo it makes sense to give him a bit of a rest.
3. Player Development-Demko has played little in Vancouver, part of the time being injured, part of the time it seemed Green was choosing Markstrom anyway. Demko has eased in, should now have some confidence and it shouldn't hurt his development to get more starts.
So sure, it makes sense to play Demko. I just don't buy that the play of Demko or Markstrom in Garbage Time while Demko has been underused (mostly due to injury) and Markstrom overused is going to be information the Canucks will or should rely on in making any decisions about the future.
